Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 09/11/24

There has barely been time to catch our breath after the Melbourne Cup before we plunge headfirst into Champions Day. This is always a popular day on the betting sites with such quality action to enjoy. We have one of the biggest roughies that we have tipped up on Saturday. We are taking a chance with a track specialist who comes down in class so could be rather overpriced.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#1 Front Page - $4.80
#4 Rey Magnerio - $4.60
#3 The Astrologist (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $81.00
#9 Nadal - $3.80

BEST BET - #1 Front Page - (BEST BET)
The winner of the Kosciuszko last year, he was a close second in the race this year to start his season. There is only one other pace angle in here and he is drawn five barriers away so the hope would be that they do not take one another on too much early in the piece. If he can get a relatively soft time of things up the straight here, he could be a very hard horse for the others to try and claw back. He’s eight now but he has not got many miles on the clock for one of his age and is yet to show any signs of his age starting to catch up with him.

THE DANGER - #4 Rey Magnerio
One of those who will be looking to pick up the leaders would appreciate it if they go harder up top than perhaps looks likely here. He has run four times at this track for a win, a pair of seconds and a third. Clearly, the straight track suits him well with the cadence of races generally a little more consistent than around a bend. Placed in all three starts this season, he has only been touched off in his last two.

VALUE BET - #3 The Astrologist
A massive price here given that some of the best form that he has shown in his career has come on the straight track at Flemington. He found 1400m too far here on Tuesday, picked up at around the 200m mark in the Group 2 Linlithgow. His last three runs have all come at that level, back down into a Listed race now. Back in July, he was fourth in a Listed race over track and trip, following that up in the same position in a Group 3. Still has some life in the old legs and gets a nose roll back on again.

Selections:
#1 Giga Kick (NEXT BEST) - $5.00
#5 Bella Nipotina - $4.40
#2 Overpass - $6.00
#6 Sunshine In Paris - $6.50

BEST BET - #1 Giga Kick - (BEST BET)
Has been working his way back to full fitness this season after missing almost a year. Was just touched off by Bella Nipotina in the Everest last time out and that should bring him on another little bit in terms of fitness. He has saluted on two of his three prior visits to this track, his defeat when fifth in the VRC Classic. He was beaten 0.8 of a length in total that day so it would be unfair to knock him on that and his prior form here gives him a big edge over his main danger.

THE DANGER - #5 Bella Nipotina
The super mare has been better than ever this season at the age of seven. She just about had enough in the tank to hold off Giga Kick when they met in the Everest but it is probably safe to assume that she has less room to build off the back of that than a horse having just his third run after a long break. She has not shown her best form at Flemington in the past. She has raced here 10 times in the past without saluting. A second and three third-place finishes are the best she has done which has to be a concern.

VALUE BET - #2 Overpass
The winner of his last three starts, they have been split by a fair gap between each one. He won on Everest Day at Randwick in a time that was quicker than the main event so that has to give him a strong chance. That was a Group 3 so although he was not running against the same class of opposition, it has to be treated as a strong line of form. 18 days since his last start could be the concern. Eight runs first up has seen four wins and three seconds while second up has seen a single win from six starts plus two seconds. He’s second up here.

Selections:
#10 Via Sistina (BEST BET) - $1.70
#11 Atishu - $8.50
#6 Eliyass - $13.00
#7 Docklands - $17.00

BEST BET - #10 Via Sistina - (BEST BET)
What a star this mare has become. She was a smart performer in Europe but has hit Australia with a string of Group 1 wins, including an absolute demolition job in the Cox Plate last time out. That has to be backed up which could be an ask of her given that it was such a stunning run. If she is going to be able to run to that level again, she is going to be very hard to beat. Heavy ground was not a help to her in the Makybe Diva but these conditions should be perfect. Is a short price here but on her best form, she is entitled to be those odds.

THE DANGER - #11 Atishu
Saluted in the Empire Rose on Tuesday, she has gradually been running back into form during this prep. She was three and a quarter lengths behind Via Sistina in the Turnbull but she comfortably stepped up on that when third in the Caulfield Stakes. She has won four of her nine starts at this track in the past, including in the Mackinnon last November. Should have conditions to suit her well here and that makes her a danger.

VALUE BET - #6 Eliyass
Very lightly raced for his age, just 13 starts so far in his career. He has saluted in nine of those which is an exceptional strike rate. He has won seven out of eight over 2000m so this is clearly the perfect trip for him but he was beaten on his only prior start at Flemington. That came in the Turnbull. He was behind Via Sistina and in front of Atishu in that race so his chance is along the same lines as those two above. He is a six-year-old but he might have a little bit more progression to come from him and that should make him a leading contender.

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There is a smart book of rides at Flemington for Michael Dee. There are some strong-looking chances that are shorter prices with the horse racing bookmakers. Adding to that is a roughie in I’m A Dirty Rascal who was just behind the Melbourne Cup winner in the Bendigo Cup last time out. His course form is a worry but he was under consideration for today’s top roughie tip.

R1 - #9 - Angland - $3.50
R2 - #10 - Rohesia - $7.50
R3 - #9 - I’m A Dirty Rascal - $21.00
R4 - #9 - Nadal - $3.80
R6 - #12 - Bellatrix Star - $12.00
R7 - #13 - Broadsiding - $6.50
R8 - #4 - Nugget - $51.00
R9 - #13 - Subsix - $29.00

This is going to be a tricky multi tip to land this week given such an enormous roughie tip. He is the first leg so if we get through it, we are hopefully on for a winner with the other pair both having a huge shout at the prices on the best of their form.

R4 - #3 - The Astrologist - PLC $17.00
R6 - #1 - Giga Kick - PLC $2.05
R8 - #10 - Via Sistina - PLC $1.20

Total Odds = $41.82
$50 Stake = $2091 Return!

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Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R6)

1st: 1, 2, 5, 6
2nd: 1, 2, 5, 6
3rd: 1, 2, 5, 6

$50 stake = 208% flexi