Saturday Racing Tips Caulfield 30/11/24

Although there is no Group 1 on the Caulfield card, there are eight black-type races on the day from 10 so it is a strong card. There are plenty of horses who have competed with credit in Group 1 races which gives us plenty to look forward to. It should be a busy day on the betting sites with plenty of quality action to get stuck into. There are a few races to enjoy before we get to our three horse racing tips so let’s break down the action.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#1 I Am Unstoppable (BEST BET) - $3.20
#3 Fancify - $3.00
#2 It’sourtime - $7.50
#8 Garza Blanca - $4.60

BEST BET - #1 I Am Unstoppable - (BEST BET)
Yet to run on heavy ground but this is a fair step down in grade from the races that he has been running in so far this season. He was well beaten in a Group 1 at Flemington on his most recent start but connections probably feel that he is going to be capable of better given that they fit him with blinkers for the first time. He has a win and a second place in three starts when he has run in Listed races in the past so he has a solid record at this level. Runner-up in the McEwen at The Valley prior to his Flemington run, that level of form will make him very hard to beat.

THE DANGER - #3 Fancify
Mare has an excellent record so far in her career of 7/13. She is a perfect 2/2 when she has been ridden by Joe Bowditch. Those are her two starts this season. This is a drop in trip from 1400m last time out at Flemington, winning a Group 3 from the front that day. She has a perfect barrier in one to roll along in the lead again here. The main competition that she will face on the speed is from the widest barrier so she is going to be using up far less energy. Her chance depends on not being inconvenienced by the drop down in trip.

VALUE BET - #2 It’sourtime
Hold-up performer will want them to go hard in front which is not all that likely here. That said, he has been showing a solid level of form this season, including when third in a Flemington Group 3. The straight track there suits him better than Caulfield does, yet to get his head in front in 10 races at this track. He has finished in the places in seven of those, however, so he needs to be given plenty of respect for a minor frame position once more.

Selections:
#3 Arapaho - $4.40
#14 Kingswood - $6.50
#6 Berkeley Square (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $10.00
#4 Smokin’ Romans - $13.00

BEST BET -  #3 Arapaho - (BEST BET)
The veteran performer has gone more than 600 days without saluting but he has been facing some strong rivals. He was fifth in the Mackinnon on his most recent start, less than six lengths behind the winner Via Sistina in that Group 1 race. He kept plugging away in that 2000m contest, looking suited to the step back up to 2400m here. 7/25 when the ground is wet compared to 1/13 when the ground is good suggests that he should find conditions fine for him.

THE DANGER - #14 Kingswood
Yet to face conditions that are quite as deep as this but he has some solid form this season, including a win over 2000m in a Group 3 at this track back in the middle of October. That has been the upper limit of his winning distance so far but he shapes as if he is worth a first try over 2400m. He is a half-brother to Eldar Eldarov who is a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe over 3200m so there is enough in his pedigree to give him plenty of respect over this far.

VALUE BET - #6 Berkeley Square
A perfect 2/2 when the ground has been heavy, so conditions look perfect for him here, already a heavy track at the time of writing with some more rain in the forecast. He has been placed in three straight Group 3 starts, including over this trip, all on good ground. Runner-up to Kingswood in the middle of those over 2000m, he has the potential to get closer at least here. This is a deeper race than any of those races but conditions are going to make up for that. Should continue his consistent level of recent form.

Selections:
#1 Tuvalu (BEST BET) - $2.60
#2 Arkansaw Kid - $5.00
#4 Tamerlane - $8.50
#9 Warnie - $10.00

BEST BET - #1 Tuvalu - (BEST BET)
Has not managed to stand up to much racing in the last year or so but he showed some smart form in the spring of last season. He was third in the Feehan and then chased him Alligator Blood in the Underwood, two performances that shine like a beacon when it comes to this Group 3 race. When the ground is soft or worse, he has five wins from eight starts, plus two second-place finishes and a third. Conditions are going to be perfect for him here and while 1400m is a touch on the short side for him, the heavy ground will make this a fair enough stamina test at the distance.

THE DANGER - #2 Arkansaw Kid
Has yet to win beyond 1200m but he was third the only time that he has raced over 1400m. That was in the Blue Sapphire over track and distance last November before stepping up to 1600m for the Sandown Guineas. Is a perfect 2/2 when he has raced on heavy ground, the most recent of those when saluting in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis at Flemington in September. This is already his seventh start of the season so he has been on the go a while. Well beaten last time out but he got no sort of a run through that day so he can be forgiven for that. 

VALUE BET -  #4 Tamerlane
Third in his only start over this track and distance, way back in August 2022. It is a bit of a surprise that he has not been brought back again until now. Travelled well on his first start of the season, his challenge just flattening out late on in the Group 2 Linlithgow at Flemington over this same distance of 1400m. He has a win and a third in four career starts on heavy ground so there is plenty in his favour here.

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Nine rides across the 10 races on Saturday at Caulfield for Micheal Dee. There are some strong-looking chances for Dee to salute according to the horse racing bookmakers, including the ride on our top roughie. The earlier rides on the card look like opportunities for him to get a winner or two on the board.

R1 - #6 - Hiyaam Proud - $3.50
R2 - #1 - Tycoon Star - $4.60
R3 - #15 - Divus Romulus - $8.00
R4 - #6 - Gellhorn - $26.00
R5 - #8 - Garza Blanca - $4.60
R6 - #10 - Snitzanova - $6.00
R7 - #6 - Holymanz - $10.00
R8 - #6 - Berkeley Square - $10.00 
R10 - #9 - Soul Choice - $71.00

We have a slightly shorter roughie this weekend for our horse racing tips. He is one who is going to relish the prevailing conditions at the track with heavy ground being very much to his liking. The other pair both look strong favourites to claim their respective races so have very strong claims of being at least placed.

R5 - #1 - I Am Unstoppable - PLC $1.50
R8 - #6 - Berkeley Square - PLC $3.30
R9 - #1 - Tuvalu - PLC $1.50

Total Odds = $7.42
$50 Stake = $371.25 Return!

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R9)

1st: 1, 2, 4, 9
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 9
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 9
$50 stake = 208% flexi