NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | June 13

The NBA Finals have not quite started as neutral fans would have hoped, with consecutive wins to the Celtics in Boston opening up a 2-0 series lead from which it will be very difficult for the Mavericks to recover. But after a one-sided Game 1, Game 2 offered a little more hope for Mavs fans as their team took it right up to the more highly fancied home side. Game 3 heads to Dallas for the first time for a game that the Mavericks simply have to win if they are to have any chance at winning the championship, but will home court advantage be enough for them to turn around their fortunes from the opening couple of games of the season? Take a look at our best bets for the game below. 

Mavericks -2.5 @ $1.88 | GetSetBet 

It is indicative of the significance of home court advantage in the NBA that the Mavericks, after losing both of the first two games of the series and one of them by a large margin, are favoured heading into Game 3 on their home court. But based on the numbers, there is good reason for the reversal in fortunes expected by NBA betting sites. All season long the Celtics have proven nearly impossible to beat at TD Garden, incredibly dropping only four out of 41 games on their home court throughout the course of the regular season. They were still pretty damn good on the road, but with a 27-14 record they were clearly a hell of a lot more beatable when travelling outside of their state. Interestingly in the playoffs that trend hasn’t exactly persevered, with the Celtics winning every one of the six away games that they have played to date, but the teams that they have played have not been nearly as potent as a Mavericks side which has already this postseason knocked off the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves in six games or less. The same home and away difference has not actually been evident for the Mavericks, who had a record of both 25-16 at home and away and have both dropped a couple of home games and won a couple of the road so far these playoff series. But the Celtics’ differential alone is enough to suggest that there could very easily be a turnaround in the result in this game. The Mavericks simply have to win this game to keep themselves alive while the Celtics, not that they will admit it either publicly or internally, will be well aware that they are in the box seat to win this series and the championship even if they do drop this game. With everything on the line, expect Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in particular to come out firing, and lead the Mavericks to a victory of three points or more. 

Mavericks over 107.5 total match points @ $1.89 | BlueBet 

Though they certainly have not shown it through the first two games of this series, the Mavericks are a very dangerous offensive team. That was the case throughout the regular season when they averaged 117 points per 100 possessions, good for eighth in the league, and even with the heightened defence which always comes in the postseason they have maintained a similar rate of scoring. In fact their overall offensive rating in the playoffs has dipped slightly to 113.6, but that has been significantly impacted by their poor showings in the opening two games of this series in which they scored just 89 and then 98 points. Prior to this series their offensive rating for the playoffs sat at 115.2, only slightly down on their season average – something which is particularly impressive given that they played the best defensive team in the league in the Timberwolves and another very good one in the Thunder. The Celtics are a really talented defensive team, with every member of their starting five a very capable defender in their own right, but good offence beats good defence in the NBA and with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the charge, the Mavericks are more than capable of exhibiting exactly that. They have not managed to find their offensive mojo through the first couple of games of this series, but back on their own home floor, they can recapture something more closely resembling their best with ball in hand and surpass the 107.5-point line set by betting sites. 

Mavericks to win by 7+ @ $2.60 | PlayUp 

If we are going to bank on the Mavericks bouncing back in this one, we might as well try to find a little bit more value than what the line offers. And this isn’t just for the sake of looking to lock in a bigger win, either. Though the Celtics have admittedly not lost often during these playoffs – just twice, in fact – on those couple of occasions when they have they have demonstrated a willingness to let things get away from them. The first of those came by ten points against the Heat while the second was by 24 points against the Cavaliers, with each of those results standing out even more when you consider how comprehensively the Celtics beat up on those teams in the rest of the games in those series. And it makes sense, too; these are long series and the difference in outcome if they win those in four games, five games or six games is exactly nothing. If this game starts to get away from them at any point, whether it is a conscious thing or not the Celtics will not be as likely to grind their way back into it as they would be if they had their backs against the wall. With a 2-0 series lead, if the Mavericks start to open up any sort of decent lead in the third and fourth quarters, they should be able to hold onto it. At significantly better than even money with NBA betting agencies, this looks like quite a good value bet to round out the day’s action.