AFL 2023 Round 23 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 23
AFL 2023 Round 23

The list of potential finalists is gradually dwindling, but with only a fortnight remaining in the home and away season there are still 12 teams who could reasonably make the finals. The top four is settled in terms of who will make it, but the order of those teams is very much up in the air with the exception of the Magpies on top. They’ll kick off Round 23 with what could be one of the games of the season, hosting the second placed Brisbane Lions on Friday night, while the following day will see a plethora of eight-point games – the Giants vs the Bombers, Saints vs Cats and Crows vs Swans. Concluding a massive round of footy is an intriguing clash between the Dees and Hawks on Sunday and a Perth matchup between the Dockers and Power, and we’ve previewed each and every one of nine games in this season-deciding Round 23.

Round 23 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Magpies vs LionsFriday, August 18 at 7.50pm$1.67$2.20
Tigers vs KangaroosSaturday, August 19 at 1.45pm$1.26$3.90
Suns vs BluesSaturday, August 19 at 2.10pm$2.30$1.62
Giants vs BombersSaturday, August 19 at 4.35pm$1.36$3.15
Saints vs CatsSaturday, August 19 at 7.25pm$2.25$1.65
Crows vs SwnasSaturday, August 19 at 7.40pm$1.58$2.40
Bulldogs vs EaglesSunday, August 20 at 1.10pm$1.02$14.00
Demons vs HawksSunday, August 20 at 3.20pm$1.26$3.90
Dockers vs PowerSunday, August 20 at 4.40pm$2.45$1.55

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions

A few weeks ago, the top two teams on the ladder in Collingwood and Port Adelaide went head to head and we got to enjoy one of the great home and away games in AFL history. The Lions have since moved up into that second slot, meaning this Friday night will once again see the top two teams go up against one another, and hopefully a similar game results. Both of these sides just did enough last week, the Pies staving off the Cats to get back on the winners’ list after two consecutive losses by eight points, while the Lions just held on against a fast finishing Adelaide to keep their undefeated home record alive with a six point win. The Pies remained two games clear on the top of the ladder as a result, and with two games to go that means they’re assured of finishing first unless they lose their next two. With the Lions and then Cats to come that’s not completely out of the realms of possibility, but it seems unlikely and they’ll be keen to make it impossible with a win this weekend. The Lions, meanwhile, are mired in a tight race for second and a subsequent home Qualifying Final with the Power, who they’re ahead of only percentage, and the Dees a game further back. A win for them is more significant than it is for the Magpies, but they haven’t been the same side away from home this year as they have in Brisbane. Much has been made about their record at the MCG – this one is, strangely enough, at Marvel, but the fact remains that this game being in Melbourne may well prove to be the deciding factor.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.67
Magpies 1-39$2.35
Magpies -5.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: J.Howe, B. Frampton, I.Quaynor HB: B.Maynard, N.Murphy, W.Hoskin-Elliott C: J.Noble, J.Crisp, J.Daicos HF: S.Pendlebury, B.Mihocek, T.Adams F: J.Elliott, D.McStay, B.McCreery FOLL: D.Cameron, J.De Goey, T.Mitchell I/C: P.Lipinski, S. Sidebottom, B.Hill, O.Markov

Brisbane LionsTeam: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, D.Wilmot C: H.McCluggage, J.Dunkley, D.Zorko HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, L.McCarthy F: C.Rayner, J.Daniher, Z. Bailey FOLL: O.McInerney, L.Neale - C, J.Berry I/C: D.Robertson, C.Ah Chee, J.Prior, J. Lyons

Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

After what will hopefully be one of the games of the season the night before, Saturday kicks off with a game of a little less relevance when the Tigers take on the Kangaroos. Richmond’s season is officially over after another terrible performance last weekend, being thoroughly outplayed against the Saints with their season on the line the week after doing the same against the Bulldogs. Their effort was once again lacking early in the game, and with North Melbourne playing consistently competitive footy without being able to get a win, if the Tigers do that again this weekend they’ll suffer another loss. The Roos clearly don’t know how to win – they’ve now lost 19 in a row after winning the first two of the season – but they’re very consistently going close. Last week was yet another example with a nine-point loss to the Bombers, meaning they’ve now lost three of their last four by single figure margins with the fourth game in that stretch a five-goal loss to the Demons in which they played fantastically well in the first quarter. The Kangaroos are playing out the season well, buoyed no doubt by the return of Alastair Clarkson, and if the Tigers play the way they have the last couple of weeks this one will be close. Richmond should be able to get the job done, but there’s every chance it could be close. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Tigers 1-39$2.20
Tigers 1-24$3.50
Tigers to win$1.26

Predicted Squads

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: N.Balta, T.Young, D.Grimes HB: D.Rioli, N.Vlastuin, J.Short C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross HF: M.Coulthard, J.Graham, L.Baker F: J.Riewoldt, D.Martin, J.Bauer FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, D.Prestia, S.Bolton I/C: N.Broad, J. Hopper, T.Dow, M.Pickett

North Melbourne KangaroosNorth Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A.Corr, B.McKay, J. Ziebell HB: J.Goater, T.Thomas, L.McDonald - C C: D.Tucker, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott HF: K.Turner, H.Sheezel, J.Stephenson F: E.Ford, N.Larkey, P.Curtis FOLL: T.Goldstein, W. Phillips, J.Simpkin I/C: T.Xerri, C.Taylor, R. Hansen Jr, G.Wardlaw

Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues

Though it was likely already over, the Suns season was officially ended by the Swans last weekend, with their second consecutive loss putting them two games and percentage outside of the top eight with just two games to go. They’ve now lost three of their last four, and though the solitary win in that time was a very impressive seven goal defeat of the Lions, it’s nonetheless been a disappointing end to the season yet again for the Suns, and it doesn’t get a whole lot easier this weekend with a game against the hottest team in the AFL. The Blues won their eighth on the trot in enthralling fashion on the weekend, holding out the Demons in a controversial finish to win by four points. But while Dees fans will no doubt feel aggrieved at the way that game ended, Carlton was the better side for large swathes of the game and could easily have been a long way ahead had they capitalised on the way they played early. They are playing fantastic footy at the moment, and they’re doing it without a couple of key players, too. Top four is out of reach barring a meltdown from the Demons, but the Blues will still be keen to lock up fifth spot and hit the finals running, and should be able to keep the win streak going this weekend. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Blues to win$1.62
Blues 25+$2.90
Blues -7.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: N.Anderson, R.Atkins, D.Macpherson C: J.Lukosius, S.Flanders, B.Ellis HF: M.Rosas, N.Holman, B.Ainsworth F: J.Farrar, B. King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts, M.Rowell, T.Miller - C I/C: E.Hollands, B.Humphrey, S.Lemmens, D.Swallow

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: A.Cincotta, J.Weitering, A.Saad HB: N.Newman, C.Marchbank, B.Kemp C: B.Acres, P.Cripps - C, O.Hollands HF: J.Martin, T.De Koning, D.Cuningham F: L.Fogarty, C.Curnow, M.Owies FOLL: M.Pittonet, S.Docherty, G.Hewett I/C: Z.Fisher, P.Dow, M.Cottrell, J.Motlop

  • While the Lions are 11 and zip at home this season, their record outside of Queensland is a comparatively measly 5-5.
  • The Crows, in contrast, are 8-3 on their home turf compared to 1-8 on the road.
  • The Saints have won just one of their last eight games against the Cats, and two of their last 15.

Multi of the Week

Magpies to win$1.67
Crows 1-39$2.28
Cats 25+$2.80
Bet $10 for $106.61 with PlayUp

GWS Giants vs Essendon Bombers

The Giants and the Bombers each find themselves outside of the top eight on percentage alone, currently occupying ninth and tenth spot. That makes this, it’s safe to say, a pretty significant game. Due to their poor percentages a loss means that the season is almost certainly over for the loser, but the winner will put themselves in a great position to play finals with one game to go. Both sides have tough games in Round 24, with the Giants playing the Blues and the Bombers playing the Magpies, but the winner will at least put their destiny in their own hands. Essendon enters this game on a two game winning streak while GWS have lost their last two, but that formline belies how each side is actually playing. The Bombers’ two wins have come by narrow margins against the Eagles and the Kangaroos, while the Giants have gone down to the in-form Swans and Port and before that had won seven on the trot. Though they are side by side on the ladder, it’s hard to see the Giants losing this one, particularly on their home turf.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Giants 1-39$2.15
Giants 1-24$3.30
Giants to win$1.36

Predicted Squads

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, I.Cumming HB: L.Ash, H.Himmelberg, L.Whitfield C: J.Kelly, T.Green, N.Haynes HF: C.Brown, L.Keeffe, J.Riccardi F: D.Lloyd, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C FOLL: K.Briggs, C.Ward, S.Coniglio I/C: C.Idun, H.Perryman, B. Daniels, T. Bedford

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: N.Hind, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Kelly HB: M.Redman, J.Laverde, A.McGrath C: E.Tsatas, A.Perkins, N.Martin HF: S.Durham, P.Wright, N.Cox F: J.Menzie, K.Langford, B.Hobbs FOLL: A.Phillips, D.Parish, Z.Merrett - C I/C: W.Snelling, D.Heppell, N.Bryan, M.Guelfi

St. Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats

A couple of huge games will take place on Saturday night, the first of which will likely decide the fate of both the teams involved in the game and many of those around them. Entering the round, the Saints find themselves in sixth place while the Cats are a game and a half further back and in 11th. Which teams position you’d rather be in at this point in the season, however, is not as clear as it may seem. The Saints finally appeared to find some form against the Tigers last weekend, putting in probably their best performance in months, but prior to that it had been a long time since they played decent footy. The Cats, meanwhile, have been a little up and down, but in the past months they’ve gone very close against the Magpies and Lions in Brisbane, and beat the Power. What’s more, the Saints have to head to Brisbane for their last game of the season – a game they’ll likely lose – while the Cats have a more winnable game against the Dogs. Most likely the Cats need to win both games to play finals while the Saints need to lose both to miss, but both those outcomes are very possible. The reigning Premiers have had their backs against the wall for most of the season, but with their entire year riding on this game they can pull out the performance they need to keep themselves in the finals hunt.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats to win$1.65
Cats 25+$2.80
Cats -7.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda SaintsSt. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, C.Wilkie, J.Webster HB: Z.Cordy, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Windhager, S.Ross, M.Wood HF: J.Gresham, B.Hill, M.Owens F: M.King, T.Membrey, C.Sharman FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, B.Crouch I/C: M.Phillipou, J.Higgins, D.Butler, L.Stocker

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: J.Kolodjashnij, E.Ratugolea, J.Bowes HB: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, T.Stewart C: M.Duncan, T.Bruhn, I.Smith HF: G.Miers, J.Cameron, O.Henry F: B.Close, T. Hawkins, T.Stengle FOLL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Atkins I/C: M.O’Connor, M.Holmes, Z.Tuohy, S. Neale

Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans

The Crows need absolutely everything to go right to make the finals from here after their heartbreaking six-point loss to the Lions last weekend, but courtesy of their percentage it’s still not completely beyond the realms of possibility, particularly given they play West Coast in the last round. A win in this game, however, is a non-negotiable. Fortunately they’ll get to head back to the Adelaide Oval, where they’ve been very tough to beat all season, though they’ll have to play well against a rampaging Swans outfit. Sydney have gone on an absolute tear after their season appeared to be all but over, winning five games in succession to put themselves inside the eight with two games to go. But with Melbourne to come in the final round, whether they will remain there is far from assured. They’ll certainly need one more win to play finals and potentially two, and this is the more winnable of their two, difficult though it is. Expect them to come out absolutely humming and create a highly contested game with finals-like intensity, but the stark reality for the Swans is that even the best sides have struggled against Adelaide in Adelaide this year. This should be a fantastic game, but the Crows can get over the line to keep their finals hopes alive. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Crows 1-39$2.28
Crows 1-24$3.35
Crows to win$1.58

Predicted Squads

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, J.Borlase, M.Keane HB: M.Michalanney, J.Worrell, W.Milera C: J.Soligo, J.Dawson - C, J. Rachele HF: B.Keays, D.Fogarty, S.McAdam F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, H.Schoenberg FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, M.Crouch I/C: R.Thilthorpe, L.Pedlar, R.Sloane, L.Nankervis

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: T.McCartin, A.Francis, R.Fox HB: N.Blakey, O.Florent, J.Lloyd C: E.Gulden, Ch.Warner, D.Stephens HF: S.Wicks, H.McLean, I.Heeney F: W.Hayward, J.Amartey, T.Papley FOLL: T.Hickey, C.Mills - C, L.Parker I/C: H.Cunningham, J.Rowbottom, B. Campbell, L.McDonald

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Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles

Didn’t the Dogs make a meal of that last week? Questions regularly surround their ability to bring their best – which is very good – on any sort of consistent basis, and as if to invite further criticism they went and lost a must-win game against the 16th side in the league to put their finals hopes in jeopardy. In fairness Hawthorn is no ordinary 16th team and have played some very good footy of late, but nonetheless it was a game the Dogs just had to win. Fortunately they get a great chance to bounce back this week and keep their finals hopes alive, and they surely won’t have any difficulty getting the job done this time around. The Eagles have managed to at last put forward the occasional competitive performance of late, but last week they conceded 18 straight goals to Fremantle in the Western Derby to lose yet another game by 100 points. That doesn’t bode well for this week. The Bulldogs at their best can score as heavily as anyone, and they won’t likely even need to find that best to do that against the Eagles. This should be a big win for the Bulldogs.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Bulldogs 40+$1.28
Bulldogs -62.5$1.91
Bulldogs to win$1.02

Predicted Squads

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: A.Keath, L.Jones, T.Duryea HB: B.Dale, J.O’Donnell, E.Richards C: C.Poulter, M.Bontempelli - C, B.Williams HF: C.Weightman, A.Naughton, B.Smith F: R.Lobb, J.Ugle-Hagan, R.West FOLL: T.English, A.Treloar, J. Macrae I/C: A.Jones, A. Scott, C.Daniel, L.Vandermeer

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: L.Duggan, J.McGovern - C, T.Cole HB: E.Yeo, A.Witherden, B.Hough C: L.Edwards, T.Kelly, J.Hunt HF: C.Chesser, J.Darling, N.Long F: J.Cripps, O.Allen, J.Petruccelle FOLL: B.Williams, L. Shuey, A.Gaff I/C: S.Petrevski-Seton, E. Hewett, J.Jones, J.Rotham

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks

The Demons might have lost their chance at a top two finish with a heartbreaking defeat to Carlton last Saturday night, with a controversial score review from a Christian Petracca shot for goal in the dying minutes ultimately securing the loss for them. Still, barring consecutive losses to round out the season and two wins to the Blues they’ll still finish top four, and top two is not completely out of the realms of possibility either. They’ll be keen to at least give themselves a chance, but they can’t afford to take the Hawks lightly. Despite the fact that they’ll finish in 16th, the Hawks are a really dangerous team and are playing some terrific footy of late, having taken out first the Pies then the Dogs over the past fortnight. Their future looks incredibly bright, and it could be as soon as next year that they’re competing for a finals spot based on their recent performances. They’ve been up and down throughout the year but as the season goes on their good has become increasingly common, and if they bring that this weekend this will be a really high quality game. It’s hard to tip against the Demons and with so much on the line they should be too good, but the Hawks could hang around with them for a fair chunk of this game if they play well.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons 1-39$2.20
Demons 1-24$3.60
Demons to win$1.26

Predicted Squads

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: C.Salem, S.May, T.Rivers HB: J.Bowey, J.Lever, A.Brayshaw C: L.Hunter, J.Viney, A.Neal-Bullen HF: C.Petracca, T. McDonald, K.Chandler F: J.Melksham, J.van Rooyen, J.Jordon FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, K.Pickett I/C: B.Grundy, E.Langdon, T.Sparrow, J.McVee

Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawks: B: J.Sicily - C, J.Scrimshaw, J.Blanck HB: H.Morrison, J.Impey, B.Hardwick C: J.Weddle, J.Worpel, F.Maginness HF: T. Brockman, L.Breust, C.Nash F: D.Moore, M.Lewis, C.Macdonald FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Newcombe, W.Day I/C: B.Ryan, K.Amon, J.Koschitzke, J.Ward

Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power

It’s a shame that the Dockers left their run so late, because they finally appear to be playing more like the side that won 15 games last year but have let themselves too much to do to give themselves a chance at playing finals. In the last three weeks, they’ve beaten the Cats in Geelong, lost by just three points to the Lions and then smashed the Eagles by a triple-figure margin, and with that form behind them they’re every chance of ruining Port Adelaide’s top two aspirations this weekend. The Power, however, finally returned to their best after four consecutive losses last Sunday, demolishing the Giants from the outset and going on to record a 51-point win. They’re now just percentage behind the Lions in the hunt for a home Qualifying Final, and with the Lions playing Collingwood in Melbourne this weekend a win for the Power in this game will quite possibly put them back in the top two and mean they only need to beat Richmond in the last round to secure that spot. That makes this a huge game in the context of the season; which side out of Port and Brisbane finishes second could very well ultimately determine one of our Grand Finalists, so expect the Power to come out firing. Freo should be able to make a good game of this, but Port Adelaide should be too strong.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Power 1-39$2.20
Power 1-24$2.60
Power to win$1.55

Predicted Squads

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce - C, C.Wagner HB: J.Clark, L.Ryan, H.Young C: L.Henry, M.Johnson, K.Worner HF: S.Switkowski, J.Treacy, L.Schultz F: J.Corbett, J.Amiss, M.Walters FOLL: J.Corbett, J.Amiss, M.Walters I/C: M.Frederick, S.Sturt, J.O’Meara, J.Aish

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: D.Williams, A.Aliir, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, T.Jonas - C, R.Burton C: Z.Butters, W.Drew, X.Duursma HF: W.Rioli, T.Marshall, J.McEntee F: D.Byrne-Jones, O.Lord, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: J.Finlayson, O.Wines, C.Rozee I/C: T.Boak, J.Horne-Francis, L.Jones, M.Bergman 

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