AFL 2024 Round 23 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

In a season like this one, it should come as no surprise to have a hell of a lot of tight games, but Round 22 must take the cake as the closest of the year – and probably for some time before that. Four of the first six games were decided by less than a kick, another by 11 points, while the sixth saw the Giants come from behind to stun the Lions at the Gabba with a three-goal win. Sunday didn’t quite live up to that level in terms of the closeness of the results, but it was still a day full of massive ramifications for many teams in the league; the Hawks dismantling the Blues to take their spot in the top eight and the Bulldogs reverting to their inconsistent selves with a disappointing showing against the Crows. With two rounds to go there are theoretically still 11 teams in the finals hunt, though the Bombers and the Magpies will be hard-pressed to make it from here. But the jostling for spots in the eight will be fierce over the next fortnight regardless, and this weekend will obviously have a huge say on who finishes where. Take a look at our preview of all nine matches set to take place across Round 23 below. 

After a promising first half of the year it’s been a hugely disappointing last few weeks for the Bombers, and their season most likely came to an end in the most disappointing of ways last weekend. As if on a mission to prove their fanbase as the most frustrated in the league, they conceded a goal after the siren to Mac Andrew to hand the Suns’ their first away win of the year by a solitary point. Had Andrew missed, they would currently be sitting in 7th; as it is they are 10th, and while they’re only half a game out of the eight, their poor percentage means that they will almost certainly have to win both of their final two games to make the eight. Given they are against arguably the best two teams in the league, that is a tough ask. It begins this Friday night when they host the top of the table Swans, though of course, Sydney hasn’t exactly been playing like that for some time now.  
 
They looked destined to suffer yet another disappointing loss in what has been a bizarre turnaround for a team that just six weeks ago was clearly the best in the league, but a bit of final quarter brilliance from Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner helped them to a rousing comeback against the Magpies. They snuck over the line by just three points in that one, and just as well, too; had they lost they would be first still on percentage, but on the same win/loss record as each of the three teams behind them. Instead, they maintain a one-game and percentage lead at the top, and can secure a home Qualifying Final with a win over the Bombers. This team is still playing a long way below what they have proven that they are capable of, but that last quarter will surely provide them with a much-needed injection of confidence. Though the Bombers’ season is on the line, they do not have the cattle to go with their northern counterparts. In the form the Swans are in it’s hard to see them winning by a significant margin, but they should be good enough to get the job done.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.53
	Swans -10. 5	$1.91
	Swans 25+	$2.55

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Kelly, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: B. Hobbs, D. Parish, A. Roberts HF: J. Stringer, N. Caddy, S. Durham F: K. Langford, H. Jones, D. Shiel FOLL: S. Draper, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: J. Gresham, N. Bryan, A. Davey Jnr, J. Menzie, A. Perkins EMG: W. Setterfield, E. Tsatas, P. Wright

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe, T. McCartin, N. Blakey HB: O. Florent, H. Cunningham, M. Roberts C: C. Mills - C, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: L. Parker, H. McLean, R. Fox F: T. Adams, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: J. Lloyd, J. Jordon, B. Campbell, L. McDonald, C. Cleary EMG: A. Francis, P. Ladhams, S. Wicks

Mathematically, both of these teams are still in the finals race, but in reality the season is done and dusted for both of them. The Suns finally overcame their interstate hoodoo with a thrilling after-the-siren win courtesy of the electric Mac Andrew on Saturday night, but exciting that may have been it was too little too late in Damian Hardwick’s first season at the helm. Two games and percentage out of the eight, they would need two big wins to round out the season and a lot else to go their way to play finals. That won’t be happening, though they will still be keen to keep their brilliant home record going against a Demons’ side sitting right alongside them on the ladder.  
 
The Dees are another team vying for this season’s most disappointing after a dreadful second half of the year, and four consecutive losses have seen their finals hopes extinguished in a year they entered with Premiership ambitions. Their loss to the Power last weekend was their second by two points in just three weeks, and realistically ended what was already a very slim chance of them making the finals. For a team that has made the top four three years running it will be hard for them to find much motivation over the coming fortnight, and at a ground which has been as hard for visitors to win at as any this season, there is a good chance that they are headed for a fifth consecutive defeat.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Suns to win	$1.47
	Suns 1-39	$2.25
	Under 167. 5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, B. Uwland, C. Ballard HB: A. Sexton, L. Weller, W. Powell C: W. Graham, N. Anderson, S. Clohesy HF: J. Lukosius, J. Walter, B. Humphrey F: B. Long, J. Witts - C, B. King FOLL: M. Andrew, S. Flanders, M. Rowell I/C: A. Davies, J. Rogers, C. Budarick, N. Holman, T, Miller EMG: D. Swallow, N. Moyle, S. Lemmens

Melbourne Demons: B: A. Tomlinson, J. Lever, J. McVee HB: T. Rivers, T. McDonald, C. Salem C: E. Langdon, C. Oliver, A. Neal-Bullen HF: K. Pickett, H. Petty, K. Chandler F: K. Tholstrup, B. Fritsch, J. van Rooyen FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, T. Sparrow I/C: M. Hore, D. Turner, J. Billings, J. Bowey, J. Melksham EMG: K. Brown, M. Jefferson, B. Howes

This is probably the game of the round, with two teams trying desperately to establish themselves as legitimate Premiership contenders going at it at ENGIE Stadium. The Giants did a pretty good job of furthering their case last weekend; they might have already won four on the trot entering that game, but at least a couple of those losses were far from convincing. Their effort on Saturday afternoon certainly was. Down five goals to zip at quarter time and by 20 late in the third in a low-scoring game against the in-form team in the league on their home turf, the Giants were brilliant in the final quarter, booting the last six goals to knock off the Lions by three goals and move into third spot. But with two tough games to come, their spot in the top four is far from assured, and even at ENGIE Stadium they will need to be good to knock off the Dockers.  
 
Freo is coming off consecutive tight losses, the latest of which saw them go down by 11 points to the Cats in a see-sawing game at Optus Stadium. Had they won those two games – the first of which saw them lose by a point to the Bombers – they would be sitting in second. Instead, they’re back in sixth, and though they could still very easily finish top four, they are also not guaranteed a spot in the finals, such is the closeness of the ladder. This will be an intriguing game, with the Giants’ ball movement among the best in the league when they are up and running and the Dockers as capable as anyone of shutting it down. And while GWS is the in-form team from a results perspective and is hard to back against after last week’s performance, the Dockers have been underrated all season long. With a huge amount on the line, they will look to shut this game down, and can restrict the Giants’ electric ball use enough to earn themselves a tight and pivotal win.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$2.60
	Dockers +11. 5	$1.91
	Dockers 1-39	$3.00

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: L. Ash, S. Taylor, C. Idun HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, H. Perryman C: C. Ward, T. Green, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, A. Cadman, H. Thomas F: D. Jones, J. Hogan, T. Greene – C FOLL: K. Briggs, J. Kelly, S. Coniglio I/C: X. O’Halloran, T. Bedford, J. Peatling, H. Himmelberg, C. Stone EMG: C. Brown, L. Keeffe, N. Haynes

Fremantle Dockers: B: L. Ryan, J. Draper, B. Cox HB: B. Walker, H. Chapman, J. Clark C: J. O’Meara, H. Young, J. Sharp HF: A. Brayshaw - C, S. Switkowski, M. Frederick F: J. Amiss, M. Johnson, J. Treacy FOLL: L. Jackson, C. Serong, N. Fyfe I/C: C. Wagner, S. Sturt, B. Banfield, T. Emmett, K. Worner EMG: N. O’Driscoll, N. Erasmus, P. Voss

• The Swans have had the wood over the Dons in recent times, winning five of the last six games between the two teams. 
• The Blues have won their last three games against the Eagles by an average of more than 80 points. 
• The Suns are 7-1 at Peoples First Stadium this year. 

Multi of the Week

A repeat of last year’s Grand Final this close to the end of the season would typically have pretty significant ramifications, though after the Magpies’ heartbreaking loss to the Swans last weekend this one might not quite have the spice it otherwise might have. Still, the reigning Premiers are still theoretically in the finals hunt and will be desperate to win this one to keep their slim hopes alive. They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in that game, leading by more than four goals in the last only to lose by three points, and as a result they are a game and percentage out of the top eight and will need to beat the Lions and Demons to have any chance of making it. That will be tough given how they and their opponents this weekend have each been playing of late, though they will at least have some form of psychological advantage back at the MCG, where they handed such an agonising defeat to the Lions in the last Saturday of September last year.  
 
The Lions haven’t put much of a foot wrong in their quest to avenge that defeat over the past couple of months, with nine consecutive wins sending them into Premiership favouritism prior to last weekend’s game against the Giants. But seemingly well on their way to a tenth in a row after a dominant first quarter, they were overrun in the last, losing their first game since May. That sent them out of the top four, but only half a game from second place they are still in a decent position to reclaim the double chance with a strong finish to the year. A loss in this game, however, would change all of that. The Magpies won’t be easy to overcome in what should be a raucous crowd hopeful that their team can keep their finals hopes alive, but last year’s Premiers are not the team they were last year. Brisbane, meanwhile, is every bit as good, and can come away with a win which may well prove season-defining.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.58
	Lions 1-39	$2.25
	Over 167. 5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Frampton, D. Moore - C, B. Maynard HB: J. Noble, J. Howe, N. Daicos C: J. Bytel, J. Crisp, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, L. Schultz, J. Elliott F: B. McCreery, D. McStay, W. Hoskin-Elliott FOLL: D. Cameron, S. Pendlebury, S. Sidebottom I/C: P. Lipinski, I. Quaynor, N. Long, M. Cox, J. Richards EMG: N. Kreuger, L. Sullivan, W. Parker

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Joyce, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich HB: D. Wilmot, R. Lester, D. Zorko C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, J. Berry F: C. Cameron, L. Morris, C. Ah Chee FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: K. Lohmann, E. Hipwood, Z. Bailey, S. Brain, J. Prior EMG: D. Robertson, H. Sharp, D. Fort

The Showdown generally transcends ladder positions, and with these two sides sitting in 2nd and 15th, hopefully that is the case this Saturday night. And it may well be; though the Power are clearly the better team this year, the Crows have a lot more capability than their ladder position would suggest and showed as much last weekend. After only narrowly losing to the Cats in Geelong the week prior, they welcomed perhaps the hottest team in footy in the Bulldogs to Adelaide, and pumped them. They looked the better side from the outset and ultimately went on to win by 39 points, and though it doesn’t mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things, it did still point to the fact that this is a team more than capable of bouncing back next year after a disappointing 2024.  
 
That was the second time in six weeks the Bulldogs have been trounced at Adelaide Oval, after the Power did it in early July. They lost the next week to the Suns, but since then have arguably been the best team in the league, winning four on the trot including a 14-point defeat of the Blues, a stunning 112-point win over the Swans, and last weekend a thrilling two-point defeat of the Demons. That was far from their most convincing effort, but they found a way to get the four points and moved up to 2nd spot as a result. With the Dockers in Perth awaiting in the final round, however, a win this weekend is pivotal if they want to maintain their spot in the top four. They have a hell of a lot more to play for than the Crows, but with crosstown bragging rights on the line don’t expect Adelaide to roll over. The Power really need to be winning this one, but expect Adelaide to make them work for it. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power to win	$1.42
	Power 1-39	$2.25
	Under 171. 5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: La. Jones, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: L. Evans, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: J. Burgoyne, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, E. Ratugolea, W. Rioli F: W. Lorenz, C. Dixon, C. Rozee - C FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: K. Farrell, J. Mead, F. Evans, T. Boak, Q. Narkle EMG: R. Burton, H. Jackson, D. Visentini

Adelaide Crows: B: M. Michalanney, M. Keane, M. Hinge HB: H. Bond, N. Murray, J. Worrell C: B. Keays, J. Soligo, L. Sholl HF: D. Curtin, R. Thilthorpe, I. Rankine F: L. Murphy, L. Gollant, D. Fogarty FOLL: R. O’Brien, J. Dawson - C, R. Laird I/C: M. Crouch, S. Berry, J. Rachele, L. Nankervis, Z. Taylor EMG: B. Cook, C. Burgess, J. Borlase

It’s not been the season the Saints were after, but they have at least been able to grind their way to the finish line so far – the exception being a thumping at the hands of the Lions – winning four of their last six games. The latest was nothing to write home about, an eight-goal win over the hapless Tigers, but with the ramifications which would have come with a loss they would nonetheless be relieved to have got the points. It won’t be quite so easy this weekend, however, up against a Cats team which juped into the top four with a really impressive win in Perth last weekend.  
 
That was an entertaining and pretty high-quality game, both sides showing their capabilities at various points, but the Cats ended up victorious over the Dockers to move into 3rd spot with an 11-point win. That was their third on the trot and sixth in their last seven weeks, and with the Saints and then West Coast to come they could very easily be entering the finals series on the back of an 8-1 run and as one of the most in-form teams in the competition – and with a double chance to boot. They do, of course, have to get over the line against the Saints first, but St. Kilda haven’t for the most part been the kind of team to challenge the league’s best, with a couple of exceptions. This is a game that the Cats should not be losing if they want to challenge for this year’s Premiership, and they shouldn’t have too many problems getting the job done to potentially secure the double chance.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$1.50
	Cats -10. 5	$1.91
	Cats 25+	$2.55

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Sinclair, L. Stocker C: M. Wood, D. Butler, R. Byrnes HF: B. Hill, J. Higgins, M. Owens F: A. Caminiti, T. Membrey, C. Sharman FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, H. Clark I/C: Z. Jones, P. Dow, D. Wilson, M. Phillipou, J. Webster EMG: B. Paton, T. Campbell, A. McLennan

Geelong Cats: B: M. Duncan, J. Henry, J. Kolodjashnij HB: L. Humphries, Z. Guthrie, M. Blicavs C: M. Holmes, T. Atkins, O. Dempsey HF: T. Stengle, B. Close, S. Mannagh F: S. Neale, J. Cameron, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Stewart I/C: Z. Tuohy, S. De Koning, G. Miers, J. Bowes, G. Rohan EMG: J. Bews, M. Knevitt, O. Mullin

For the last couple of months, the Bulldogs have by and large been able to avoid the inconsistency which has plagued them over recent years, but after establishing themselves as one of the Premiership favourites courtesy of a scintillating run of form they fell in a heap against the Crows last Sunday. Maybe that’s harsh; they did have more scoring shots than their opponent and had they brought their kicking boots could have won the game, but nonetheless a 39-point loss to a team sitting in 15th in a game as important as that one is far from ideal. That loss put paid to the Dogs’ top four chances, and with the two teams below them in 8th and 9th in the Hawks and Blues both likely to win their last two games, the Doggies may well need to win their last two in order to even play in September. Fortunately for them, they shouldn’t have any troubles getting the chocolates this weekend.  
 
The Kangaroos have shown plenty of improvement this year and very nearly managed the rare feat of consecutive wins last weekend, but they reminded us why they are still a bottom two team at this stage of their development with a late-game meltdown against the Eagles which ultimately resulted in a five-point loss. They have been competitive in the back half of the season and have plenty of reason to expect, at long last, an improvement in win numbers next year, but the Dogs should be able to take care of them pretty easily. Of course, Bulldogs fans will remember only too well the debacle that was their loss to the Eagles in the penultimate round last season which essentially cost them finals, but surely, lightning won’t strike twice.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Over 177. 5 total match points	$1.90
	Bulldogs 1-39	$2.75
	Kangaroos +45. 5	$1.89

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, L. Jones, B. Khamis HB: L. Bramble, R. Lobb, B. Dale C: C. Poulter, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: E. Richards, A. Naughton, R. West F: C. Weightman, J. Ugle-Hagan, L. Vandermeer FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: N. Coffield, S. Darcy, R. Garcia, L. McNeil, C. Daniel EMG: O. Baker, J. Freijah, R. Sanders

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, T. Pink HB: J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C: B. Scott, L. Davies-Uniacke, C. McKercher HF: D. Tucker, B. Teakle, E. Ford F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, T. Powell, J. Simpkin - C I/C: L. Shiels, M. Bergman, W. Phillips, G. Wardlaw, Z. Duursma EMG: C. Lazzaro, B. Drury, K. Dawson

At long last the Hawks are in the top eight, and they could hardly deserve it more. They have been just about the best team in the league since they finally got on the board in season 2024 following five consecutive losses to start the year, and that continued in a brilliant performance on Sunday. With a loss likely to spell the end of their season, they were simply too good for a team that only a few weeks ago looked like the best chance to knock Sydney off their perch this year, running out 112-38 winners in one of their best performances in a year which has had plenty of good ones. They now sit in 8th just barely ahead of the Blues, but with the Tigers and the Kangaroos to round out their season, it would take a disaster for them to miss out on finals footy.  
 
It's been one of the most forgettable seasons in a long time for the Tigers, and they endured yet another forgettable game on Sunday afternoon against the Saints. As they so often have this year, they hung around for a couple of quarters or so but were overrun late, eventually losing by 48 points to take their record to 2-19. Unless they double that win tally over the last two weeks of the season they will almost certainly be finishing on the bottom of the ladder, quite a fall from grace for a team so recently in the midst of a great dynasty. Of course, injuries have taken their toll and there is scope for them to improve next year, but as for the next two weeks, they have little to play for. Expect that to show on Sunday, and with the Hawks’ spot in the finals on the line they should be able to win this one easily. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.10
	Hawks -37. 5	$1.91
	Hawks 40+	$1.95

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: K. Amon, S. Frost, J. Sicily - C HB: B. Hardwick, J. Impey, C. Jiath C: J. Scrimshaw, D. Moore, J. Weddle HF: L. Bruest, W. Day, C. Macdonald F: J. Ginnivan, M. Chol, J. Gunston FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Nash I/C: C. Dear, N. Watson, J. Worpel, C. Mackenzie, M. D’Ambrosio EMG: H. Morrison, J. Serong, F. Maginness

Richmond Tigers: B: N. Broad, N. Balta, B. Miller HB: J. Trezise, N. Vlastuin, D. Rioli C: K. McIntosh, D. Prestia, S. Banks HF: R. Mansell, J. Graham, S. Campbell F: S. Bolton, S. Ryan, J. Koschitzke FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, T. Taranto, J. Hopper I/C: J. Short, J. Bauer, H. Ralphsmith, T. Dow, J. Ross EMG: T. Sonsie, M. Coulthard, J. Blight

Speaking of falls from grace, the Blues’ season has fallen off a cliff over the past few weeks. Just six weeks ago they were sitting in second, favourite to win the flag behind the Swans, and had booted eight goals to quarter time against the Giants. GWS would come back to win that game, kickstarting a run of five losses in six games for the Blues – the only win coming unconvincingly against the Kangaroos. Their 74-point loss to the Hawks was compounded by a bunch of injuries which no doubt contributed to the heaviness of that defeat, but regardless of the reasons they lost, they now, stunningly, find themselves outside the top eight with just two games to go in the season. But all is not lost. With the Eagles and Saints to come they will be favourites to win each of their last two games, and if they do, there is a good chance they will jump back into the eight.  
 
Interestingly they are only relatively marginal favourites against the Eagles, likely because the home side has won their last two games to take their win tally for the year to five. The latest of those was a stirring victory, with three late goals getting them over the line by five points against the Kangaroos, and with the team now locked into 16th place they might as well look to end the season on a high note – after all, they won’t be losing out on any draft picks if they pick up another win or two. But though they have been solid the past two weeks, the Blues should really be able to take care of them without too much trouble, despite their recent on-field woes. There will likely be numerous forced changes for Carlton and they won’t be at full strength, but while there are challenges, with their season on the line their talented and experienced core should be able to get them over the line comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.70
	Blues -5. 5	$1.91
	Blues 16+	$2.40

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: T. Cole, J. McGovern, A. Witherden HB: L. Duggan, R. Ginbey, B. Hough C: Z. Trew, E. Yeo, H. Johnston HF: J. Cripps, J. Darling, R. Maric F: J. Waterman, O. Allen - C, L. Ryan FOLL: B. Williams, T. Kelly, H. Reid I/C: J. Hunt, C. Hall, J. Williams, T. Dewar, A. Gaff EMG: J. Petruccelle, A. Reid, J. Hutchinson

Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, L. Cowan HB: Z. Williams, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: E. Hollands, H. McKay, C. Durdin F: M. Owies, Le. Young, J. Motlop FOLL: M. Pittonet, S. Walsh, G. Hewett I/C: A. Cincotta, J. Carroll, J. Boyd, J. Binns, M. Kennedy EMG: C. Marchbank, O. Fantasia, L. Cowan

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