NRL 2024 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2024 NRL Grand Final

The race for the 2024 NRL Premiership has developed into a three-team affair in the eyes of many, with the Panthers, Roosters and Storm emerging as the clear favourites to both make the Grand Final, and win the whole thing. But of course, with a couple of months still to go in the regular season there is plenty of time for things to change, and it’s far from a fait accompli that two of those three teams will be playing in the big dance for the 2024 Premiership. On this page, we will take a look at some of the best outside chances to make it through to the Grand Final – that is, basically every team that isn’t the Panthers, Roosters or Storm. 

The Broncos have been doing a good job of losing the faith of the NRL public throughout June and July, but at their best they are still a dangerous team and that they are the most favoured team to make the Grand Final outside of the runaway trio at the top suggests as much. After an indifferent start to the season, the Broncos quickly found hit top gear with five wins in six games to take their record to 7-4. But just as quickly as they had climbed up the ladder, they began to tumble back down it, losing five games on the trot to fall outside the top eight. Unsurprisingly that has seen their Premiership odds balloon out, and at the time of writing they are far from guaranteed to even make the finals, let alone do any damage once there.  
 
But all is not lost for the Broncos. They have a very friendly run of games over the last two months of the season and should be winning the vast majority, and with the ladder as tight as it is that would be enough to see them work their way well and truly back into the top eight. Top four looks very unlikely, but if they can manage to lose only another game or two for the rest of the season, it isn’t entirely out of the realms of possibility. If they did manage to earn the double chance then clearly, they would be in a great position to go deep into the finals. Even if they don’t, however, they will probably be the best team outside the top four and a side that nobody will want to play. 

• What brings them here? The Broncos, of course, were Grand Finalists last year, though courtesy of five consecutive losses in the middle of this season they are reasonably long outsiders to repeat that effort this year. 
  
• What has changed? Not too much. Keenan Palasia has headed to the Gold Coast while both Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler will suit up for the Dolphins, and Kurt Capewell for the Warriors. Coming in are Fletcher Baker from the Roosters, and Jaiyden Hunt from the St. George Illawarra Dragons. 
  
• Injury report Ben Te Kura will be unavailable until late in the season with a Lisfranc injury, and Jack Gosiewski until finals with an arm injury. Both Fletcher Baker and Adam Reynolds are due back in Rounds 22-23, and Jock Madden’s return date from a hamstring is unclear at the time of writing. 

Bet on the Broncos to make the Grand Final at $6.00 with PlayUp 

The Sharks impressed everyone with their first two or three months of the season and deservedly established themselves as a legitimate Premiership threat in the process, winning nine of their first ten games and locking themselves into top spot on the ladder during that time. But just as quickly, their season has completely unravelled. A 42-0 loss to the Panthers was their second defeat of the year, and set in motion a run of form which has seen them go from a very legitimate candidate to finish on top of the ladder to a team struggling to hang onto a spot in the top four – and who, if their current form persists, could be in danger of missing the eight. Inclusive of that game against the Panthers, the Sharks lost five games in a six-game period, including defeats to both the Eels and the Titans – two of the bottom three teams in the league.  
 
But as grim as all of this sounds, the early season wins that the Sharks banked and the way that they played throughout that period is reason enough to believe that they still have some capacity to do damage in the finals. They have a really good draw on the run home, so while they haven’t been playing anything like a top four team, there is still a very good chance that they do end the regular season with the double chance – and any team that finishes top four will not be paying $7 to make it through to the Grand Final. There is good reason to be wary of the Sharks given how thoroughly average they have been for some time now, but they were one of the best teams in the league for an extended period early in the year, and if they can recapture anything like that form then they will be very dangerous come finals time.

• What brings them here? Nine wins in their first ten games demonstrated that the Sharks warranted more respect than most gave them prior to this season, though five losses in their next six did the exact opposite. 
  
• What has changed? The Sharks had a pretty quiet off-season, with Billy Burns the only addition after he came across from the Dragons. Matt Moylan and Connor Tracey both headed overseas, while Wade Graham retired. 
  
• Injury report. Kade Dykes is out for the season with a knee injury, while Nicho Hynes much-awaited return, which could be a game-changer for the Sharks, is scheduled for Round 26. Siosifa Talakai will be available after suspension in Round 21, while Jack Williams is TBC with a wrist. 

Bet on the Sharks to make the Grand Final @ $7.00 with PlayUp

There is a clear top three in the Premiership race, and behind those the Broncos and Sharks round out a clear top five – after that group, there are a bunch of teams jostling for the title of the next best team, and the Sea Eagles are at the head of the bunch. They have been solid albeit unspectacular for most of the season, not really putting together any glistening runs of form but equally proving able to avoid the kinds of slumps that even the above couple of teams have shown. Locked in the logjam of teams in the middle of the ladder, they need to keep winning to play finals, but they are a better team than many of those around them. 
 
Of course, the Sea Eagles strength lies in their top-end talent. They boast both State of Origin captains in Daly Cherry-Evans and Jake Trbojevic, as well as the 2022 Dally M Medalist in Tom Trbojevic – when he is on the park, that is. As has felt inevitable in the past few years, he has missed numerous games through injury this year, but at the time of writing he is fit and firing, and if those three can remain healthy and in good form then the Sea Eagles are a dark horse to do a bit of damage. They have proven an ability to go with the best teams in the league this season – they have beaten each of the Storm, Panthers and Roosters, and lost by a point to the Broncos – and clearly, that is what is needed to make it through to the Grand Final. They are certainly a rung below the top five in the league, but the Sea Eagles are far from the worst outsider in this list. 

• What brings them here? The Sea Eagles have been hovering around the bottom half of the top eight for most of this year, but it’s their ability to beat the top teams which provides the most cause for optimism with their regards to do any damage in the finals.  
  
• What has changed? Quite a lot changed for the Sea Eagles in the offseason. They lost a number of players to other teams including Sean Keppie, Samuela Fainu, Morgan Harper, Kelma Tuilagi, Kaeo Weekes and Christian Tuipolulotu. Coming in, however, were former Tigers trio Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau, Aitasi James, as well as Jaxson Paolo, Corey Waddell and Bailey Hodgson. 
  
• Injury report. Jake Arthur is out for the year with a foot injury, while Lachlan Croker’s neck injury has no timeline. Tolo Koula should be available around Round 25 from a knee injury and Matt Hodge the week prior, while both Aaron Woods and Taniela Paseka are TBC with their injuries. 

Bet on the Sea Eagles to make the Grand Final at $10.00 with PlayUp 

After years spent in the doldrums, the Bulldogs really needed to show some improvement this year with a list that has seen significant turnover in the past couple of years, and they have done exactly that. After an uninspiring first fortnight of the season they have been one of the most consistent teams in the league, and with a couple of months to go have put themselves in a great position to not just play finals, but potentially sneak inside the top four. They boasted a 9-5 record in the nearly four months following that aforementioned slow start to the year, and it could easily have been better with the first four of those defeats coming by six points or less. 
 
The Bulldogs haven’t claimed nearly as many big scalps as the Sea Eagles, but they have still performed pretty admirably against the top teams. They managed to claim an impressive four-point win earlier in the season against the Roosters – though Sydney did get revenge with the only heavy defeat the Bulldogs have suffered since Round 2 the next time they met – while they lost to the Panthers by only six points and the Storm by just two. Given how poor they have been for so long it’s hard to believe that the Bulldogs are truly a finals side – and not just that, but a dangerous one – but all of the evidence this year suggests they are exactly that. Whether they can keep it going come finals – assuming they get there – remains to be seen, but they have hardly put a foot wrong all year and are probably still a little underrated with a couple of months left in the regular season. 

• What brings them here? The Bulldogs have been really solid throughout the course of the season, climbing as high as fifth spot and with the very realistic prospect of jumping inside the top four. 
  
• What has changed? The Bulldogs continued their long-term list turnover in the off-season. They picked up, as mentioned, Stephen Crichton from the Panthers in what is a big get, while they also grabbed his teammate Jaeman Salmon, as well as Kurt Mann from the Knights, Blake Taaffe from the Bunnies, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters, Connor Tracey from the Sharks and Poasa Faamausili from the Dolphins. With all those ins there are also obviously heaps of outs; each of Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti have gone elsewhere in the NRL while Luke Thompson and Jayden Okunbor headed overseas. 
  
• Injury report. Ryan Sutton is out for the season with a knee injury, while both Blake Taaffe and Karl Oloapu remain on unclear timelines. Jaeman Salmon’s untimely jaw injury will keep him out until about Round 25, Josh Addo-Carr is due back a couple of weeks before that, and Drew Hutchison a week before him. 

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the Grand Final at $11.00 with PlayUp 

The Cowboys lost a few names in the off-season, which didn’t bode particularly well for them given they missed the finals last year, but four wins in five games to start the year provided some hope that they could return to the top eight in 2024. Unfortunately it was followed by five consecutive losses, but of course, in typical Cowboys fashion, that losing streak was subsequently followed by five wins in six games. It’s been an erratic season to say the least, but sometimes erratic is not a bad thing when it comes to outsiders. For a team at long odds to do any damage in the finals, the chances of them doing that are higher if there is a big gap between their ceiling and their floor compared to if they are just a consistently average team, and the Cowboys certainly fit into the former category. 
 
The Cowboys have enjoyed some impressive performances throughout the course of this year; they beat the Roosters by two points and the Panthers by ten, though both of those were, admittedly, affected by State of Origin. Still, it’s the second year in a row in which the Cowboys have shown a greater ability to beat the top teams than their ladder position would suggest, which is obviously what they will need to do in the finals – if they get there – if they are to make an unlikely run deep into the postseason. Realistically, however, there are plenty of better team than the Cowboys, and it is reasonably tough to see them causing enough upsets to make it all the way through to the Grand Final. 

• What brings them here? The Cowboys have been up and down this year, and the result at the time of writing is that they are right around the middle parts of the ladder and a good chance of sneaking into the finals.  
  
• What has changed? There are a few outs for the Cowboys, probably most notably Peta Hiku, who has gone to the UK, while Riley Price, Jake Bourke and Taniela Sadrugu have also found new homes and Mitch Dunn and James Tamou have retired. Viliami Vailea is their only acquisition, coming across from the Warriors. 
  
• Injury report. Zac Laybutt and Coen Hess are out for the season with knee injuries, while Jamayne Taunoa-Brown is making slow progress from his Achilles injury. 

Bet on the Cowboys to make the Grand Final at $11.00 with PlayUp 

There is a big drop off in the odds after the aforementioned teams, and surely – surely – the Rabbitohs couldn’t pull off the impossible and make it all the way through to the last game of the year? Probably not, but who the hell knows with this team this year. Their season could hardly have been more erratic – they entered it with Premiership aspirations, but they rapidly fell by the wayside as the team lost nine of their first ten games, found themselves on the bottom of the ladder with the worst points difference in the league by some margin, and sacked coach Jason Demetriou. But for the Bunnies, hitting rock bottom with the speed that they did seemingly enabled them to bounce back off it pretty fast. 
 
Sitting at 1-9 things were looking pretty grim, but they finally broke through for their second win with a strong performance over the Eels. The next week they pumped the Titans, and the next put in their most impressive effort of the year when they beat the Broncos. Following that they kept the Sea Eagles to exactly zero points en route to a fourth win in a row, before comfortably beating the Eels again the next to make it five on the trot. After winning just one of their first ten games, clearly that was some turnaround. Of course, that disastrous start to the year has put them well and truly behind the eight ball even in terms of making finals, but they are coming home like a team possessed. Just how long it lasts remains to be seen, but if they do end up making finals they will do so on the back of a continued rich vein of form. At long odds, they have the potential to be a very dangerous team in the back half of the year.

• What brings them here? The Rabbitohs are such rank outsiders in this market due to their woeful start to the year, but they have put themselves back in the hunt at least for finals thanks to a stunning turnaround.  
  
• What has changed? There wasn’t a massive amount of turnover for the Rabbitohs in the off-season, though some was significant. They lost Hame Sele to the Dragons, Daniel Suluka-Fifita and Blake Taaffe to the Bulldogs, and Jed Cartwright to the UK. Jack Wighton, meanwhile, came across from the Raiders, and Sean Keppie from the Sea Eagles. 
  
• Injury report. Campbell Graham, Lachlan Ilias and Tyrone Munro are all out indefinitely, while Latrell Mitchell is due back in Round 23 from a foot injury. Dean Hawkins should be available a couple of weeks before that. 

Bet on the Rabbitohs to make the Grand Final at $21.00 with PlayUp 

After catapulting themselves into the top four last year, the Warriors have not quite been able to replicate their efforts this season, and with a couple of months to go have their work cut out just to make the finals, let alone the Grand Final. They have been unable to put together any really extended, consistent patches of good form, the only period which came close when they won three in a row in May and June. The first of those was a two-point defeat of the Panthers, their best win of the season, but they have been unable to play at that level with any sort of consistency. 
 
Like many teams they are locked in a multi-team battle for the lower rungs in the top eight, but they are right at the bottom of that group at the time of writing. In the Warriors’ favour, however, is the fact that they have an excellent fixture to come. They certainly won’t be favourites in the rest of their games this season, but they will be in plenty of them and in those that they aren’t they will still be a chance to win. There is every chance that the Warriors work their way back into finals contention over the coming weeks and could make their way into the finals with their proverbial tail high in the air, but making it through to the Grand Final from where they currently find themselves seems like a long shot. 

• What brings them here? The Warriors were just a game away from the Grand Final last year, but in 2024 have struggled to replicate that form and are now up against it even to make finals.  
  
• What has changed? The Warriors, as mentioned, have a big acquisition in the form of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, and they have also secured Kurt Capewell from the Broncos and Chanel Harris-Tavita. But there are quite a number of outs, too, with all of Viliami Vailea, Bailey Sironen, Josh Curran and Ronald Volkman playing elsewhere this year and Brayden Wiliame retiring. 
  
• Injury report. Luke Metcalf will be unavailable until late in the season with a fractured leg, whilie Tohu Harris and Rocco Berry are unavailable indefinitely. Shaun Johnson and Zyon Maiu’u are due back in about Round 21, while each of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Marcelo Montoya are TBC with their injuries at the time of writing. 

Bet on the Warriors to make the Grand Final at $23.00 with PlayUp 

Finally, to the Dolphins. For the second year running they have exceeded expectations with Wayne Bennett at the helm, and though a regression to the mean was always expected, at 7-3 they were doing a pretty good job of keeping it at bay. But alas, a loss to the Warriors kicked off a five-game stretch in which they won just a solitary game, and fell back to the pack in the process. They could easily have won a couple more during that stretch, with each of the first three of those defeats coming by six points or less, but lose them they did and with it, their hold on a top four spot which extended far longer than anyone expected was also lost.  
 
The Dolphins are a really competitive team and rarely do they make it for a team to beat them, regardless of the calibre of that team, and that admirable trait means that they will likely be either winning or at least in the vast majority of games that they play on the run home. But whether they can hang onto a top eight spot remains to be seen, and sneaking into the top four looks very unlikely. It always takes something special to make it to the Grand Final from outside the top four, and while the Dolphins could give a few teams a scare if they do make it through to the finals, it’s hard to see them having enough firepower to go all that deep into the finals. Long odds they may be, but there is good reason for that. 

• What brings them here? The Dolphins were pretty impressive in their first year in the league and have been even better this year, though getting all the way through to the Grand Final appears beyond their reach. 
  
• What has changed? The Dolphins didn’t change all that much in the off-season. They lost each of Brenko Lee, Poasa Faamausili and Hermen Ese’ese, while they picked up Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler from the Broncos, as well as Jake Averillo and Oryn Keeley. 
  
• Injury report. Tom Gilbert is out for the year with a knee injury, while Tom Flegler is out indefinitely with a shoulder. Jeremy Marshall-King is expected to be available from the end of the regular season, and Kurt Donoghoe will be available following his suspension from Round 22. 

Bet on the Dolphins to make the Grand Final at $23.00 with PlayUp  

Though a clear three has emerged in the race for the Premiership and two of those teams may very well occupy the two spots on Grand Final Day, nothing is guaranteed in the NRL, particularly this far out from the end of the season. Clearly the Broncos and the Sharks loom as the best chances outside of those two teams to make it, but there is reason to be concerned about each of their prospects given their really poor form for an extended period. Looking beyond that we get to some pretty rank outsiders who are realistically unlikely to do that much damage in the finals, if they get there, but the one which has a potentially very high ceiling is the Rabbitohs. Ridiculous, I know, given where they sat just a few short weeks ago, and they probably won’t even make the finals. But they are coming home with a vengeance and if they do manage to make it to the finals – which is far from beyond the realms of possibility – then they will be entering the most important part of the season in some lethal form. It is a long shot in every sense of the word, but it could be the best value on the board and a fun one to follow given the narrative surrounding the team this year. 

Recent upset Grand Final winners

• 2016 – Cronulla Sharks 14 Melbourne Storm 12
• 2015 – North Queensland Cowboys 17 Brisbane Broncos 16
• 2001 – Newcastle Knights 30 Parramatta Eels 24
• 1999 – Melbourne Storm 20 St George Illawarra Dragons 18

Recent upset losing Grand Finalists

• 2019 – Canberra Raiders
• 2017 – North Queensland Cowboys
• 2011 – New Zealand Warriors
• 2005 – North Queensland Cowboys

Current clubs yet to play in an NRL Grand Final

• Gold Coast Titans – 2007 to Present