NRL 2024 – Best Outsiders to Make the 2024 NRL Grand Final

As we near the NRL Finals, there are three clear standouts in the Premiership race, and by extension the race to make the Grand Final. The Storm, Panthers and Roosters are going to be extremely hard for any other team to oust, though there are a number of pretty capable teams below them that will fancy their chances of causing an upset or two in the finals. Below, we are going to take a look at all of the teams that could still be considered any chance at all to make the Grand Final, and how their odds in this market stack up with reality.

The Storm are going to finish on top of the ladder and by some margin, having established a three-game lead up there with two games to play in the regular season. That means one thing; a home Qualifying Final at AAMI Park, where, at the time of writing, they are 10-2 on the season. And of course, if they win that, they will stay at home for a Preliminary Final, meaning they have a path to the Grand Final without having to leave the home ground at which they are so dominant. Of course, that does not mean it’s a fait accompli by any means – there is a good chance that the Storm will have to play the Panthers in week one of the finals, which even in Melbourne will be an extremely tough game. But whoever they play, the Storm will enter that Qualifying Final as favourites, and if they win it they will enter the Preliminary Final as favourites too. They have been as consistent as anyone all year and appear to be hitting their straps just when they need to, knocking off the Panthers in Penrith in Round 24 before pumping the Dolphins by 42 points the next week. They look likely – touch wood – to have a full bill of health heading into the finals, and with the likes of Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cameron Munster and co fit and healthy, they will be extremely hard to beat at AAMI Park. A Grand Final is very much in the sights of the Storm, though the bookies, unfortunately, agree, and have them odds on to make it through. With a potential match up against the Panthers and maybe the Roosters later on prior to the Grand Final, that might be a little short, but they are the best placed team in the league to make it through.  

• What brings them here? The Storm have been excellent all year, and with no real down periods the likes of which virtually every other team has had, they have long ago locked up top spot. 
  
• What has changed? The Storm lost Tariq Sims and Jayden Nikorima to the Catalans overseas, Tom Eisenhuth to the Dragons and Justin Olam to the Tigers, while Shawn Blore was brought over from the Tigers. 
  
• Injury report. Jonah Pezet and Chris Lewis are the only unavailable players for the season on the Storm’s list, while Bronson Garlick is TBC. Xavier Coates will, importantly, be back for finals. 

Bet on the Storm to make the Grand Final at $1.70 with PlayUp 

The Roosters have been brilliant all year, and a Panthers’ slip up in Round 25 saw them jump from 3rd into the all-important top two courtesy of their league-leading points difference. A home Qualifying Final is now within their grasp, and with it the prospect of a run to the Grand Final without having to leave their home ground. The Roosters’ best has arguably been unmatched this year, and certainly their ability to complete trounce teams with alarming regularity better than any other team in the league. Whether they end up finishing top two or not, they will be a very hard team to beat, and a Grand Final berth is well within their grasp. They will almost certainly need to beat one of the Storm or the Panthers to get there, which will be no easy feat, and whenever they do come across one of those teams it will be very hard to pick a winner. Going against the Roosters is the fact that, while they have beaten up on a whole lot of teams, their record against their fellow contenders isn’t great; they have lost twice to the Storm and were beaten in their only game against the Panthers. But of course, that does not mean they aren’t capable of beating those teams. At their best the Roosters are a really hard team to stop, though like with the Storm, at such short odds to make the Grand Final and with either the Storm or the Panthers likely waiting for them in a Prelim, should they get there, they won’t exactly walk straight into the big dance. At under $2 they aren’t necessarily a great bet to make the Grand Final, but they are a really good chance of getting there. 

• What brings them here? The Roosters had an indifferent start to the year from a results perspective, but that was made worse by a couple of close losses and since then they have been very tough to beat. 
  
• What has changed? Quite a lot. The Roosters have lost Fletcher Baker, Jaxson Paulo, Paul Momirovski, Drew Hutchison, Jake Turpin, Corey Allan and Ben Thomas to other teams, though Spencer Leniu comes across from the Panthers, Dominic Young from the Knights and Lewis Murphy from the UK. 
  
• Injury report. Egan Butcher will be unavailable all year, and Billy Smith indefinitely. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves can return from suspension during the finals, while Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’I is TBC. 

Bet on the Roosters to make the Grand Final @ $1.85 with PlayUp

The Panthers have been the slight Premiership favourites, and with it favourites to make the Grand Final, throughout the course of the year, and that’s no great surprise given that they have won the last three of them and made four in a row. They have had to play large chunks of the season without Nathan Cleary and still managed just fine, and he will be back in business for the finals, which will be a massive boost. But a really disappointing four-point loss against the Raiders in Round 25 saw them fall out of the top two, and may well end up costing them a home Qualifying Final. In fact, if they lose another game they may well end up being surpassed by the Bulldogs and fall outside the top four, though that is pretty unlikely. More probably is that they will end up either 3rd or 4th, needing to take on either the Storm or the Roosters at their home ground. That will be a mighty tough matchup whichever they end up with, but whichever of those teams ends up getting them in that game – assuming that’s what transpires – will count themselves unlucky. The Panthers, as much as anyone, are capable of taking their game up a notch in the finals, and have a level of belief and experience that is unmatched in the league. They haven’t been at their absolute best at times this year, but with Cleary back for finals they are more than capable of stepping things up when it matters most, and with their odds having gone out a little courtesy of that Raiders loss, they are now at least offering a little more value to do something they have done four years in a row. 

• What brings them here? The Panthers have unsurprisingly been right up the pointy end of the ladder all season long, and barring a big stuff up at season’s end will find themselves once again with a double chance come finals.  
  
• What has changed? There have been a couple of big names leave the club; Crichton and Salmon aside, they have also lost Spencer Leniu, Jack Cogger, Thomas Jenkins and Zac Hosking. Coming into the team are Daine Laurie from the Wests Tigers, Brad Schneider from the UK and Paul Alamoti from the Bulldogs. 
  
• Injury report. As mentioned, Cleary has had some injury concerns but will be back for finals, while Jesse McLean and Scott Sorensen were expected to be available for the last game of the regular season. Jack Cole is unavailable for the rest of the year with a leg injury.  

Bet on the Panthers to make the Grand Final at $2.00 with PlayUp 

It has taken plenty of people a while to get their heads around the fact that the Bulldogs are actually good, but at this point there is little denying it. After a bad first couple of weeks of the season they have hardly put a foot wrong; in fact, they literally haven’t at all on their home turf. They have been the best performed team at home all year, having not lost a game there all year up until the time of writing a couple of weeks out from final. Unfortunately that has been offset by a pretty poor record away from home, but they have gone a long way towards rectifying that in the lead-up to the finals, and that record has been tainted by a hell of a lot of close losses. In fact, since those opening two rounds of the season they have only lost a solitary game by more than a single score, indicating just how capable they are of matching it with every team in the league. Of course, the Bulldogs have not enjoyed all that much finals experience in recent years, but a number of the players they have brought across in recent seasons have so they won’t be as ill-equipped as their performances over the past few years might suggest. In the lead-up to the finals, the Bulldogs have just kept winning, but have been unable to crack into the top four. They may very well end up falling short of it, but they will be the best team outside the top four and one which is more than capable of making their way deep into the finals series. And if they do manage to jump into the top four, look out. Most likely having to go the long way round, they will obviously be up against it to make it all the way to the Grand Final, but if they do upset one or two teams that finish above them, it will be no surprise at all.  

• What brings them here? The Bulldogs have just kept on winning for most of the season, and when they have lost it generally has been very competitively. They are a legitimately very good team, and are capable of causing damage in the finals. 
  
• What has changed? The Bulldogs continued their long-term list turnover in the off-season. They picked up, as mentioned, Stephen Crichton from the Panthers in what is a big get, while they also grabbed his teammate Jaeman Salmon, as well as Kurt Mann from the Knights, Blake Taaffe from the Bunnies, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters, Connor Tracey from the Sharks and Poasa Faamausili from the Dolphins. With all those ins there are also obviously heaps of outs; each of Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti have gone elsewhere in the NRL while Luke Thompson and Jayden Okunbor headed overseas. 
  
• Injury report. Kurt Mann will unfortunately miss the rest of the season with a fractured clavicle in a big blow for the Bulldogs, joining Ryan Sutton in that club. Blake Taaffe is due back in the finals, while Karl Oloapu remains indefinite with a neck injury. Stephen Crichton returns from suspension for the last game of the regular season.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the Grand Final at $4.50 with PlayUp 

After catapulting themselves into the top four last year, the Warriors have not quite been able to replicate their efforts this season, and with a couple of months to go have their work cut out just to make the finals, let alone the Grand Final. They have been unable to put together any really extended, consistent patches of good form, the only period which came close when they won three in a row in May and June. The first of those was a two-point defeat of the Panthers, their best win of the season, but they have been unable to play at that level with any sort of consistency. 
 
Like many teams they are locked in a multi-team battle for the lower rungs in the top eight, but they are right at the bottom of that group at the time of writing. In the Warriors’ favour, however, is the fact that they have an excellent fixture to come. They certainly won’t be favourites in the rest of their games this season, but they will be in plenty of them and in those that they aren’t they will still be a chance to win. There is every chance that the Warriors work their way back into finals contention over the coming weeks and could make their way into the finals with their proverbial tail high in the air, but making it through to the Grand Final from where they currently find themselves seems like a long shot. 

• What brings them here? The Sharks started the year looking like the best team in the league, and though they did drop off from a form perspective, they seem to have recaptured something resembling their best just in the nick of time. 
  
• What has changed? The Sharks had a pretty quiet off-season, with Billy Burns the only addition after he came across from the Dragons. Matt Moylan and Connor Tracey both headed overseas, while Wade Graham retired. 
  
• Injury report. Nicho Hynes will be welcomed back just on the eve of the finals in a huge boost, while a host of others including Ronaldo Mulitalo also come off the injury list in the very late stages of the regular season. Jesse Colquhoun and Kade Dykes are unavailable for the rest of the year

Bet on the Sharks to make the Grand Final at $5.00 with PlayUp 

There is a little bit of a gap back to the Sea Eagles in this market, and realistically they will be hard-pressed to make their way all the way through to the Grand Final. But they do have a very capable and experienced core and have been solid all season long, so who knows – stranger things have happened in sport. By and large they have been reasonably good all season long, not dropping all that many games that they shouldn’t, though a notable exception came in Round 25 when they went down to the Tigers – a result which will potentially cost them a home Elimination Final. In fact, with a couple of tough games to round out the season they will be hard-pressed to work their way back into the top six, meaning they will likely have to travel every week of the finals if they are to make their way to the Grand Final. They look most likely set for an Elimination Final against the Cowboys which they are more than capable of winning, but once they have to start taking on the likes of the Panthers and co, or even the Bulldogs and Sharks, they will be up against it. Having said that, they have actually performed really well against good teams this year, having beaten each of the Roosters, Storm and Panthers at various points. Of course, doing that in the regular season is a whole different story to doing it in the finals, and it’s hard to imagine them being able to replicate it with those teams competing for a Premiership. The Sea Eagles have had a solid enough year, but a Grand Final berth might be just out of reach. 

• What brings them here? The Sea Eagles have been doing their thing all season and have rarely budged much from the position in the bottom half of the top eight which they currently occupy. 
  
• What has changed? Quite a lot changed for the Sea Eagles in the offseason. They lost a number of players to other teams including Sean Keppie, Samuela Fainu, Morgan Harper, Kelma Tuilagi, Kaeo Weekes and Christian Tuipolulotu. Coming in, however, were former Tigers trio Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau, Aitasi James, as well as Jaxson Paolo, Corey Waddell and Bailey Hodgson. 
  
• Injury report. Jake Arthur and Aaron Schoupp are the only all-year unavailabilities for the Sea Eagles, while Corey Waddell is due back in week one of the finals.

Bet on the Sea Eagles to make the Grand Final at $11.00 with PlayUp 

The Cowboys have been up and down like a bit of a yoyo this year, starting off like a house on fire, then falling in a heap, then bouncing back to their form of the start of the year. But for most of the second half of the year, they have been pretty good. After being pummelled by the Raiders, they beat the Panthers late in June early on in a run which would see them win six of eight games, with one of those losses coming by just a point. They also knocked off the Bulldogs in that period, while a 42-4 win over the Raiders in Round 24 was impressive too. They have a really tough couple of weeks to round out the regular season and it’s hard to see them moving up from the 6th spot they occupy at the time of writing, but they won’t drop further than 7th, either. Whether they finish 6th or 7th will obviously determine whether or not they have a home or away Elimination Final, and that could prove pivotal in the outcome of that game. But beyond that, if they do get through that game they will have to travel in the semis, and if they win that they’ll have to travel for a prelim. And given the quality of team that those games will be against, they will likely enter them, should they get there, as a pretty comfortable underdog. It has been a solid season for the Cowboys, but they are a fair way below the top teams and it is difficult to see them advancing all the way through to the Grand Final as a result. 

• What brings them here? Aside from a disappointing period from about Rounds 6 to 10, the Cowboys have been pretty solid all year but are a level below the best of the best.
  
• What has changed? There are a few outs for the Cowboys, probably most notably Peta Hiku, who has gone to the UK, while Riley Price, Jake Bourke and Taniela Sadrugu have also found new homes and Mitch Dunn and James Tamou have retired. Viliami Vailea is their only acquisition, coming across from the Warriors. 
  
• Injury report. Each of Jamayne Taunoa-Brown, Zac Laybutt, Jake Granville and Coen Hess will be unavailable all season, while Tom Mikaele is TBC with a hamstring. Jason Taumalolo will make a welcome return just before the finals. 

Bet on the Cowboys to make the Grand Final at $13.00 with PlayUp 

For a number of weeks there has been just one spot up for grabs in the finals, and unsurprisingly that means that there is a long way back in the betting markets to the eighth favourite to make the Grand Final. At the time of writing, the Dragons are in the box seat to grab that coveted 8th spot, but if they do it’s very hard to imagine them doing any sort of damage in the finals. The Broncos have work to do just to make the finals, but if they do get there then they will be a much better chance than the Dragons of causing a couple of upsets. Last year’s Grand Finalists have had a really poor second half of the year, piling up loss after loss after loss to ruin a positive 7-4 start to the year, though they have given themselves a chance to make finals with a few wins late. Still, they are reliant on a stumble from the Dragons to get there, and if they do they are still not really playing well enough to give most of the top eight much of a fright. But the ability is there, as we know, which means that whoever finishes 5th would much rather play the Dragons than the Broncos in their Elimination Final. If they do get there the Broncos will be a real smoky to do some damage, but at the time of writing they are up against it just to make finals, and while they are capable of more than they have shown for most of the year, it’s still a big ask to make it from 8th spot all the way into the Grand Final.

• What brings them here? The Broncos would have been hoping to be a long way further up the pecking order in this market at this time of year, but they have had a really disappointing season. 
  
• What has changed? Not too much. Keenan Palasia has headed to the Gold Coast while both Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler will suit up for the Dolphins, and Kurt Capewell for the Warriors. Coming in are Fletcher Baker from the Roosters, and Jaiyden Hunt from the St. George Illawarra Dragons. 
  
• Injury report. Ezra Mam won’t be available again this season, and Jack Gosiewski not till finals should they get there. Each of Reece Walsh, Tyson Smoothy and Jock Madden are TBC, while Kobe Hetherington is due back in the last week of the regular season and Payne Haas returns for the last couple of games. 

Bet on the Broncos to make the Grand Final at $34.00 with PlayUp

This is a pretty tough market to bet on, with three teams having separated themselves very clearly from the chasing pack. And there is good reason for that; they are clearly the best three teams, but obviously only a maximum of two of them can make the Grand Final and it’s impossible to know just yet who will have to go through who to get to the Big Dance. Having said that, it’s tough to back any other team given that the Storm, Panthers and Roosters are clearly the best teams in the league. It’s a tough one to pick, but the Panthers’ odds have gone out a little courtesy of that Round 25 loss to the Raiders after they have been the favourite in this market all year, and that provides a sneaky little window of value for a team which is as experienced in finals as any, and which is capable of taking things up a gear come finals. They might not be great value, but the Panthers have been irrepressible for years, and with Cleary coming back it would be a disappointment for them not to make a fifth consecutive Grand Final.

Recent upset Grand Final winners

• 2016 – Cronulla Sharks 14 Melbourne Storm 12
• 2015 – North Queensland Cowboys 17 Brisbane Broncos 16
• 2001 – Newcastle Knights 30 Parramatta Eels 24
• 1999 – Melbourne Storm 20 St George Illawarra Dragons 18

Recent upset losing Grand Finalists

• 2019 – Canberra Raiders
• 2017 – North Queensland Cowboys
• 2011 – New Zealand Warriors
• 2005 – North Queensland Cowboys

Current clubs yet to play in an NRL Grand Final

• Gold Coast Titans – 2007 to Present