The Brownlow Medal has long been the most coveted individual award in footy, awarded to the player judged the best and fairest over the course of the season by umpires using a 3-2-1 system in each match. Increasingly, that voting system and in particular the fact that the umpires make the selections has seen many question whether it should be viewed as more significant than others like the AFLCA Champion of the Year, which is voted on by the coaches. But rightly or wrongly, the fact remains that after first being awarded exactly 100 years ago, the Brownlow is still the most illustrious award. Last year Lachie Neale was a surprise winner of the second of his career, but he has drifted a little way down the pecking order this year in a season in which all but one of the top 10 or 15 players in the betting odds would be first time winners. Some of the names up the top of the market were widely expected to be there, but others – including the man sitting well clear on top – are a little more of a surprise. Below, we’ll take a look at the chances of all of those top chances.
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal Odds
 |  |  | |
| Isaac Heeney | $4.50 | $4.50 | $4.90 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | $9.00 | $9.00 | $9.90 |
| Patrick Cripps | $9.00 | $9.00 | $10.00 |
| Tom Green | $11.00 | $11.00 | $12.60 |
| Connor Rozee | $11.00 | $11.00 | $13.00 |
| Nick Daicos | $13.00 | $13.00 | $15.00 |
| Christian Petracca | $13.00 | $13.00 | $14.00 |
| Caleb Serong | $15.00 | $15.00 | $15.00 |
| Zach Merrett | $15.00 | $15.00 | $13.00 |
| Matt Rowell | $15.00 | $15.00 | $18.00 |
Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans)
Nobody has ever doubted Isaac Heeney’s talent. Ever since coming into the league his boundless talent has been plain to see, with his foot skills, aerial ability, decision making and goal sense making him one of the more well-rounded players in the league. For the most part, however, he has shown those talents across the half forward line, and while he was an All-Australian in 2022 he has never been in the Brownlow conversation. After a poor 2023 season by his standards there was a little pressure on his broad shoulders entering this year, and he has responded to it in the best possible way. Thrown full-time into the midfield in the absence of Callum Mills and Luke Parker, he has had a dominant start to the year, picking up at least 26 touches in each of the first six games of the season and hitting the scoreboard in each of them too. Testament to his dominance, after Round 7 he had accumulated 47 coaches votes – second place had just 27. All things being equal he should be picking up a huge amount of votes in the early parts of the season, and if he maintains his current form he will be extremely hard to run down. Perhaps the only thing going against him is the potential for him to be swung back forward a little more regularly when Mills and Parker return, but given how well he is played it seems more likely than not than John Longmire will choose to keep him in the guts whenever possible. At this point in time, Heeney is the best player in the game, and though he has never been a high vote-getter, now that he is right under the umpires’ noses in the midfield he should be picking up votes at a rate of knots. significantly over recent years. It’s hard to know whether he will be at his best after a tumultuous off-season, but from all reports he is fit and ready to go. If he gets a full season in, he could easily go close to winning the Brownlow Medal.
Bet on Isaac Heeney to win the Brownlow Medal at $4.50 with PlayUp
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
There may not be a player in the league more deserving of a Brownlow Medal than Marcus Bontempelli. He has long been one of the best players in the AFL and has picked up at least 19 votes in five of the past seven seasons, including 33 in 2021 and 29 last year – tallies which would be enough to end Brownlow night with the Charlie around his neck many if not most seasons, but which those two years saw him finish runner-up. At the ripe old age of 28 he is still well and truly in the prime of his career, and has started the season in typically good form. Twice in his first six games of the year he picked up 32 or more touches while kicking at least a goal, while in two others he kicked three goals playing predominantly out of the midfield. Bontempelli is a proven vote-getter and rarely misses a game, so he is as close as anyone on this list to a certainty to finish the year in the mix. The Bulldogs have started this season in typically erratic form and how their season plays out will have some impact on his fortunes on Brownlow night, but based on past history he should find himself right near the top of the table regardless.
Bet on Marcus Bontempelli to win the Brownlow Medal at $9.90 with BoomBet
Patrick Cripps (Carlton Blues)
Like Bontempelli, Cripps has been a pretty regular feature at the top of the Brownlow Medal count over the past few years. Four times in the past six years he has polled at least 20 votes, finishing in the top four on three of those occasions and winning it in 2022. As one of the best contested players in the game Cripps has always been popular with the umpires – and deservedly so – and he has started this year in very good form for a team which may very well finish in the top four. In his first six games of the year he picked up 28 touches three times, including 15 contested in each of those, and performances like his Round 2 effort against the Tigers which yielded 31 touches and 21 contested, and his Round 7 performance against the Giants which saw him pick up 39 touches and a huge 24 contested, will have him right in the conversation for the three votes. Cripps has been no stranger to injury throughout the course of his career, but he is fit and firing so far in 2024 and will likely have plenty more performances like the aforementioned couple. As a proven vote-getter, he looks likely to once again finish the year with plenty of votes.
Bet on Patrick Cripps to win the Brownlow Medal at $10.00 with BoomBet
Tom Green (GWS Giants)
At just 23 years of age, Tom Green has already established himself as one of the best players in the league, and he will only get better from here. Green is the complete package; a contested ball beast, he can find the footy with ease and plays a key role for the Giants on both the inside and out, while his ability overhead provides an added dimension to his game. In just his fifth season in the league, Green doesn’t have nearly the past history of polling that the prior couple of names do, but last year he picked up 16 of them after never getting more than six in a single season before that. Often, when players ascend into the game’s elite it takes a year or two for them to get the recognition that they probably deserve from the umpires, and Green now has one of those under his belt. Now recognised as one of the best players in the game he will be well and truly on the radar of the umps, and based on early season form which has seen him pick up 30+ touches in four of his first six games and play a pivotal role in the Giants’ hot start to the year, he should be accumulating comfortably the highest Brownlow Medal tally of his career in 2024.
Bet on Tom Green to win the Brownlow Medal at $12.60 with BoomBet
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide Power)
The Power have probably the best young midfield trio in the league, with Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis all capable on both the inside and out, creative with ball in hand and capable of hitting the scoreboard. Butters has probably previously held the mantle as the head of the snake, but in his first year as skipper Rozee may just have taken over. After picking up a career-best 21 votes last year he appears to have gone to another level in 2024 and has put in a couple of dominant performances that could yield him full votes early on in the season. The best of those was a 36-possession, three-goal performance against the Bombers in Round 5 in which he looks like a lock for the full votes, but with close to 30 touches in virtually every other game and goals in a couple of those, he’ll be in the mix for votes in at least half of his first few games of the year. Rozee is a hard player to miss, with his undeniable skill and creativity, combined with his ability to both win the footy himself and finish off the work of others, making him one of the more watchable players in the game. The Port Adelaide skipper is one of the most damaging players in the league, and as perhaps the best player on a team likely to win a lot of games this year, it’s easy to see him going past the 21 votes he managed last year and putting himself right in the mix to win this year’s Brownlow Medal.
Bet on Connor Rozee to win the Brownlow Medal at $13.00 with Boombet
Christian Petracca (Melbourne Demons)
Alongside Cripps and Bontempelli, Christian Petracca has been one of the most consistent features of the upper echelon of the Brownlow Medal tally in recent years. After barely polling in his first four years in the league, his 2020 move into the midfield saw him rapidly ascend into the game’s elite, and he has polled at least 20 votes in every year since. Incidentally, he has also improved his vote tally in each of those years, going from 20 in 2020, up to 23, 24, and last year 26. Petracca is a perennial three-vote getter, as he showed last year with six best on ground performances making up the bulk of those 26 votes. A large part of the reason for that is his ability to hit the scoreboard heavily while also accumulating plenty of the footy; a few of the numbers from last year’s three-vote games were a 29-possession, three-goal effort in Round 4, a 35-possession, three-goal game in Round 7, and a 26-possession, four-goal performance in Round 18. He hasn’t had any of those kind of games at the time of writing in 2024, but he has picked up 29 disposals and kicked a goal in three of his first six games. Petracca is one of the most damaging players in the game and, perhaps as much as anyone in the league, is capable of putting together performances in which three votes are virtually a certainty. He’ll probably need plenty of them this year in a season with plenty of potential high vote-getters, but based on how he has polled in recent years there is no reason to think he isn’t capable of winning the award this year.
Bet on Christian Petracca to win the Brownlow Medal at $14.60 with BoomBet
Nick Daicos (Collingwood Magpies)
In his brief career, Nick Daicos has found himself on multiple occasions at very short odds to win the Brownlow. Last year he came in to almost unbackable odds relatively early in the season, and while four consecutive best on ground performances between Rounds 15 and 18 took him to 28 votes with six games still to go, an ensuing injury meant that he didn’t poll again for the rest of the season and ended the count in third place. Rarely does a player in just their second season in the league poll so heavily, so it was probably no surprise that before the first bounce of 2024 he was a short priced favourite to win the award this year – paying just $5.50, nearly half of the second most well-backed player. He has started the year well, but with Collingwood losing a number of games early and the impressive form of a number of other players, he has found himself dropping down this list. But those factors have only served to boost his value, and now paying up to $15 with some betting sites he looks, for once, like decent value. Daicos picked up 34 and 37 touches and kicked a goal in each of his first two games of the year, while a couple of other 30-possession performances early in the year could have him in the mix for votes, too. Daicos is one of the most prodigiously talented players in the year and has wasted no time getting himself on the radar of umpires, and in his third year there is no reason to suggest that he won’t be even better this year than he was last. In contrast to last year, when he polled at least two votes in five of his first six games, he might be playing catch-up in this season’s Brownlow, but as he showed with some incredible stretches of form last year, he is more than capable of making up votes very quickly. It would be no surprise to see these odds shorten throughout the course of the year.
Bet on Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow Medal at $15.00 with Boombet
Caleb Serong (Fremantle Dockers)
Playing over in the west, Caleb Serong doesn’t get quite the media attention of most of the other names on this list, but he should. His diminutive stature means that he doesn’t quite command the attention of the viewing public like some other stars of the game, but he is one of the best accumulators in the league and uses the ball a whole lot better than many probably gave him credit for early in his career. Serong took a massive step forward last year, picking up 24 Brownlow votes after having not surpassed five in each of his previous three years, and that was in a season in which Fremantle were not particularly good. He started this year as well as humanly possible with a ridiculous 46-possession performance in his first game – against the Lions, no less – while he backed that up with 35 touches the next week against the Kangaroos. He could very easily find himself on six votes after two games, and while he didn’t quite reach those heights over the ensuing games he has still picked up at least 26 touches in every game of the season at the time of writing. Serong is one of the most consistent players in the league, and in virtually every game – particularly those which the Dockers win – he is in the conversation for votes. Despite the lack of hype which surrounds him, as one of the most consistent accumulators in the league Serong looks like good value in this market early in the season.
Bet on Caleb Serong to win the Brownlow Medal at $15.00 with Playup
Zach Merrett (Essendon Bombers)
Speaking of quality accumulators, Zach Merrett has long been one of the best players in the league at finding the footy, and while that has seen him consistently perform reasonably well on Brownlow night, he’s never been able to finish higher than tenth in the award. Merrett’s game is a little more uncontested than most of the others on this list and he doesn’t hit the scoreboard all that often, and those factors make it tough for him to truly break into the game’s elite. But there is no denying how good his start to this season has been. The Bombers’ captain has played a major role in his team winning four of their first six games of the season, picking up 30+ touches in each of his first four games of the year and averaging nearly 31 through his first six. Having never picked up more than 20 Brownlow votes in his ten seasons in the league, something would need to change for Merrett to truly put himself in Brownlow contention, but he and his Bombers have certainly started the year well. Merrett probably doesn’t look like the best value selection on this list, but if the Bombers manage to finally crack the 12-win mark which they have been stuck at or below since his career started, he may be the beneficiary of a few more Brownlow votes than he has received in the past.
Bet on Zach Merrett to win the Brownlow Medal at $15.00 with PlayUp
Matt Rowell (Gold Coast Suns)
Four games into his career, Matt Rowell looked like he was about to take the league and, by extension, the Brownlow Medal, by storm. The first pick in the 2019 draft, Rowell eased his way into his career with a 19-possesion performance in his first game, then went on to pick up three votes in each of his next three games. It was a ridiculous start to his career, but an injury early in his fifth game ended his rookie season and he would go on to pick up just four more votes in the next two season. Rowell is one of the best contested players in the league, but his inability to find any footy outside of the contest has been the criticism surrounding him over the past few years. That has not necessarily been all that different so far this year, but his complete dominance around the stoppage has seen him put together a number of games in which he will be hard for the umpires to ignore. In Round 1 he picked up 26 contested possessions and had a ridiculous 20 clearances, while he again had 20 contested touches the next week and has had 15 in each of his first six games of the season. Unsurprisingly, that was enough to have him heads and shoulders above every other player in the league in that statistic. Typically, players who are strong in the contest poll well, though Rowell’s lack of outside contribution mean his impact is almost entirely reliant on what he does in tight spaces. But there is no denying just how good he is in those spaces. Rowell has never polled more than 12 votes before in his career, but he looks to have taken a significant step forward this season, and with his dominance on the inside he could easily poll a lot more votes than many people expect.
Bet on Matt Rowell to win the Brownlow Medal at $18.00 with BoomBet
