AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal Winner Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

By: James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL Brownlow Medal 2024
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal Betting

The Brownlow Medal has long been the most coveted individual award in footy, awarded to the player judged the best and fairest over the course of the season by umpires using a 3-2-1 system in each match. Increasingly, that voting system and in particular the fact that the umpires make the selections has seen many question whether it should be viewed as more significant than others like the AFLCA Champion of the Year, which is voted on by the coaches. But rightly or wrongly, the fact remains that after first being awarded exactly 100 years ago, the Brownlow is still the most illustrious award. Last year Lachie Neale was a surprise winner of the second of his career, but he has drifted a long way down the pecking order in a season in which a first time winner seems very likely. From Isaac Heeney at the top through to Neale in about 16th, all but one of the favourites has never before won a Brownlow Medal. Many of those names have been there or thereabouts plenty of times, but equally there are a large number of young players who have quickly made their way into the upper echelon of players in the AFL. Below, we’ll take a look at the chances of each of the favourites to win this award. 

AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal Odds

AFL 2024 Brownlow Favourites

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans)

Few would have expected Heeney to be in this conversation this year, let alone leading the charge more than two months into the season as the runaway favourite to win the Brownlow Medal. Undeniably talent though he may be, in his nine previous seasons in the league he has never picked up more than eight Brownlow votes, playing in that time largely as a high half forward. What’s more, while 2022 was the best season of his career, he was well down on that form last year. But with a spot in the midfield opening up courtesy of a couple of long-term injuries, coach John Longmire thrust his star forward into the guts, and it has paid dividends. Heeney has been phenomenal in his new role, continually picking up close to 30 touches – and very valuable touches at that – while hitting the scoreboard in each of his first eight games for the season. In that time he had at least 26 touches in all but one game, and in that game in which he didn’t hit that mark he kicked three goals. He was close to best on ground in most games through the first few weeks of the season, as evidenced by the fact that, by the conclusion of Round 6, he had picked up an incredible 47 of 60 possible coaches votes – 20 more than his nearest competitor. Heeney has never polled particularly well and that is a factor that can often count against players, but while he may be a newbie to the Brownlow conversation, he is very much a known face in the AFL. He has been right under the umpires’ noses all season long, and deserves to be favourite here. The only potential concern here given his short odds is whether he will be swung back into the forward line as players return for the Swans, but given how dominant he has been in the midfield, it seems likely that he will continue to spend plenty of time in there. 

Bet on Isaac Heeney to win the Brownlow Medal at $4.50 with PlayUp

Patrick Cripps (Carlton Blues)

Patrick Cripps is the only member of the top 15 in the Brownlow betting who has won the award, and having polled well in plenty of past seasons, and currently playing high-quality footy for a team which is going to win lots of games, it’s easy to see why he is so fancied to win a second Charlie. Cripps consistently finds himself at the bottom of packs, and his hulking 6’4” frame makes him one of the most dominant contested players in the game. He’s had a number of games to start the season in which three votes is very much on the card, most notably his Round 2 effort against the Tigers in which he had 21 contested possessions and 31 total, a massive Round 7 performance against the Giants which saw him accumulate 39 touches – 24 of which were contested – and a 29-possession, two-goal game the week after. As mentioned, Cripps is no stranger to Brownlow votes – he picked up 29 when he won the award in 2022 and 22 last year, while he also picked up 26 back in 2019 and 20 the year before that. Though he has had a couple of down years throughout his time in the navy blue, at his best Cripps is a very hard man to stop, and having been injury-free for an extended period of time now he has been among the best in the business for close to three years now. Carlton are widely expected to challenge for the flag this year and have started the season with a number of very impressive wins, and with their captain consistently among their best players, he should be going close to 30 votes once again in 2024 – a number which would put him right in the mix to win this coveted award for a second time.   

Bet on Patrick Cripps to win the Brownlow Medal at $7.00 with PlayUp

Zach Merrett (Essendon Bombers)

Essendon AFL

When this page was last updated I was admittedly not particularly keen on Merrett’s chances of winning the Brownlow Medal, but since then he has significantly strengthened his case. Merrett is excelling both as a captain and a leader and is in the midst of the best season of his career, and eight rounds into the season found himself second in the coaches votes, having significantly closed the hefty gap Heeney opened up early in the year. In his first eight games of the year Merrett picked up 27 touches in each of them, and while in the past criticisms of him have centred on the fact that he is not necessarily the most damaging with those touches, that’s not the case this year. His contested game has developed drastically and, importantly, he is also hitting the scoreboard more than in seasons past, never more notably than in Round 9 when he kicked three goals to go with his 29 disposals against the Eagles. Through those opening couple of months of the season his Bombers also won more often than they lost, which invariably will help his cause once again. Despite his undeniable growth, however, I remain a sceptic if only because the Bombers have probably over-performed a little in the early parts of the season, something which a low percentage despite a winning record points to. If they do fall back down to the pack a little, which seems likely, Merrett may find his Brownlow odds increasing once again, but I’ve said that before and it didn’t come to fruition. As the equal second favourite he doesn’t look to me like the best value in this market at all, but he is consistently putting himself among the best players on the ground, and having picked up at least 17 votes in each of his past three years there is good reason to think this will be a career-best year for him in Brownlow terms. 

Bet on Zach Merrett to win the Brownlow Medal at $7.00 with PlayUp 

Nick Daicos (Collingwood Magpies)

After blowing out a little in the Brownlow Medal early in the betting, Nick Daicos was starting to look pretty juicy at close to $15, and lo and behold he has rapidly shortened once again. In just his second year, Daicos was a close to unbackable favourite for the medal for a period of time last year, and that ended up probably being justified even though he didn’t end up winning the award. He had picked up 28 votes with six rounds to go, but a couple of vote-less games were followed by an injury which saw him miss the last few weeks of the home and away season and he fell just short of winning as a result. In his third year in the league, Daicos has well and truly established himself as one of the best, if not the best, players in the competition, and has already shown that he has a penchant for polling heavily. He started this season with a couple of big games, picking up 34 and 37 touches as well as a goal in each of his first two outings, though a handful of quieter weeks by his lofty standards were what saw his Brownlow odds blow out. But a 32-possession, two-goal performance against the Blues which included the game-winning goal was followed up by a 36-possession, one-goal effort against the Eagles, and with six votes very possibly coming from those two games he has now been hammered back in to second favouritism. He was looking much more tempting at the odds that he was at a couple of weeks ago than he is now, but even at $7 he looks like a pretty good bet, and it would be no surprise to see him shorten further as the season wears on. 

Bet on Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow Medal at $7.00 with PlayUp

Caleb Serong (Fremantle Dockers)

Fremantle Dockers AFL

He might not be the most spoken about player in the AFL, but few can consistently find the pill as well as Caleb Serong. He flies under the way courtesy in no small part due to the fact that he plays out west, while his diminutive stature and the fact that so much of the damage he does is in tight probably don’t help either. But 30 touches from Serong is 30 very damaging touches, and he gets to or around that mark – and often substantially more – regularly. In his first eight games of the season he picked up at least 26 touches each week and had no less than 12 contested possessions in an individual game, and in half of those games he had at least 35 touches – including in Round 1 when he almost certainly sewed up the three votes with a ridiculous 46 possessions against the Lions. Serong is still only 23 years of age and is in just his fifth season in the AFL, but last year he took a meteoric step forward with regards to his standing in the league. Having compiled 11 Brownlow votes in his first three years, he picked up 24 last year alone, putting him right in the mix for the game’s most coveted individual medal. There is no longer any doubt that he is well and truly on the umpires’ radar, and helping his chances even further is the fact that the Dockers look like being a lot better than many expected this year. He is the kind of player who will pick up votes in most of their victories and likely a few losses too, and should be right in the mix at the end of Brownlow night. 

Bet on Caleb Serong to win the Brownlow Medal at $9.00 with Playup

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)

Marcus Bontempelli is arguably the most deserving winner of the Brownlow Medal who has not yet won it in the league, having been one of the pre-eminent players in the competition for many years. The 28-year-old has polled very well in the past in the award but fallen just short a couple of times, with his best results both coming in the past three years. He polled a huge 33 votes in 2021, a number which would most years be enough to win the award but that year earned him second, while last year he went close once again with 29 votes. His ability to dominate out of the midfield while also hitting the scoreboard makes him a perennial three-vote threat, and having kicked multiple goals in five of his first nine games of the season and accumulating at least 24 touches in four of those, there is every chance that he will be polling heavily in the early stages of the season. Bontempelli sticks out like a sore thumb when playing well, with his huge, lumbering frame, ability to break lines, use the ball damagingly and, as mentioned, hit the scoreboard, making him a hard man to miss. The Bulldogs have been, as usual, up and down so far this season, but with most of his big performances coming to date coming in their victories he is a good chance to poll really well in those wins and once again put himself right in the mix for what would be a very well-deserved maiden Brownlow Medal. 

Bet on Marcus Bontempelli to win the Brownlow Medal at $13.00 with PlayUp

Tom Green (GWS Giants)

Tom Green has quickly placed himself among the game’s elite in his short career to date, with his hulking frame and elite contested ball ability making him a standout figure in a very, very good GWS midfield. Last year was the best of his career, with 16 votes in the Brownlow Medal the reward after picking up just ten in his first three years in the AFL, and it seems likely that this year he will go well past that number. He started the year with 30, 37 and 34 touches while he replicated exactly those numbers in three consecutive games – excluding Round 9 when he was injured early in the game – in Rounds 7, 8 and 10. And those touches certainly won’t go unnoticed – in all but a couple of those aforementioned 30 possession games he had at least 16 contested possessions, and with the Giants winning a lot more games than they have lost in the early parts of the season he will likely be at the forefront of the umpires’ thinking in a lot of games. Green has a lot of competition for votes, with the likes of Whitfield, Coniglio, Kelly, Greene and co all high level players in their own right, and that may end up costing him the few votes which could be the difference between a top five or ten finish, and a win. Still, it seems more than likely that this will be the highest polling year of his career to date, and he is more than capable of picking up 25+. If a few things go his way it would be no great surprise to see Lachie Neale handing over this year’s Charlie to Tom Green on Brownlow night. 

Bet on Tom Green to win the Brownlow Medal at $13.00 with Playup

Sam Walsh (Carlton Blues)

Carlton Blues AFL

Like quite a few players on this list, Sam Walsh didn’t take long to establish himself among the game’s elite. The number one pick from the 2018 draft, Walsh made an immediate impact in the AFL and in just his third year, picked up 30 votes in a high scoring count – enough to finish third. He hasn’t been able to replicate that effort since, with persistent back injuries playing no small part in that, and he picked up just 14 votes in 2022 and then only 5 last year. But in 2024, Walsh appears to be back to his best and then some, and is playing a pivotal role for a Blues team which looks very capable of challenging for a Premiership. He is at a distinct disadvantage to most of his competitors due to the fact that he missed the first five games of the season, but he has wasted no time in making his mark on the season. He picked up 34 touches in his first game back, and followed that up with 35, 31, 33 and 34. Walsh is an incredibly well-rounded player, capable of winning the ball on the inside and cause plenty of damage on the outside, and with 11 or more tackles in two of his first five games of the year he is clearly no stranger to getting his hands dirty either. It’s not easy to win the Brownlow with so many missed games and he will almost certainly need to be healthy for the rest of the season to be in with a legitimate chance, so there is certainly a buyer beware component to betting on him this year. But he has been as consistently in the top handful of players on the ground as anyone in the league in the games that he has played this year. If he continues to play the way that he has so far since returning to the park and remains injury-free, his odds may well continue to shorten. 

Bet on Sam Walsh to win the Brownlow Medal at $15.00 with PlayUp 
 

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide Power)

Zak Butters was Port Adelaide’s not so well kept secret for the first few years of his career, with the extremely high regard in which the club held him relatively well-known around the league. Predominantly playing as a nifty half forward, his talent was relatively evident through his first four years, but he was certainly not yet a standout in the league and six total Brownlow votes in that time was indicative of that. But a permanent move to the midfield in 2023 changed all that as he quickly established himself as one of the most capable players in the league and picked up 27 Brownlow votes, enough for equal fourth in the count. Butters is one of the more dynamic players in the league; elite both inside and outside the contest, he is as creative as anyone and is a pivotal part of the Port Adelaide engine room which looks capable of establishing itself as one of the best in recent memory over the coming years. He’s had plenty of big games already this season, including a 34-touch, one-goal performance against the Tigers in Round 3 and a 31-possession, one-goal game in the Power’s loss to the Pies a few weeks later, though he was still sitting behind partner in crime Connor Rozee in the Brownlow betting a couple of months into the season. But a couple of injury-induced quiet weeks for his teammate coincided with 33 possessions for Butters in Round 9 and 34 the next week in their stirring win over the Cats, and with him likely to be right in the mix for the three votes in both of those games he has unsurprisingly shortened in this market. The AFL world has quickly got used to Butters’ elite talent and he probably flies under the radar a little at times as a result, but he shouldn’t. Having picked up 27 votes last year there is no reason to think that he won’t go past that number this year, and if he does that he could easily end the season with the Brownlow Medal around his neck. 

Bet on Zak Butters to win the Brownlow Medal at $15.00 with PlayUp

Christian Petracca (Melbourne Demons)

Petracca has been one of the most consistent presences atop the Brownlow Medal voting in recent years, having picked up at least 20 votes in each of his last four years and increasing that number each and every season. Last year was the most productive of his career in a Brownlow sense, picking up 26 of them, and at long odds this year he looks like a really good smoky to win it. He and Clayton Oliver have both consistently polled really well over the past few years and have no doubt cost each other plenty of votes along the way, but with Oliver not playing at the same level after a tumultuous off-season the coast is a little clearer for Petracca this season. As capable of putting in match-winning performances as anyone in the AFL, the Demons’ superstar didn’t put together the 30-touch, multiple-goal games that he so often has in the first couple of months of the season, but with his possession numbers in the high 20s most games and those touches very damaging – and a goal most games to boot – he’ll still be on the umpires’ radar in many of those games. Against the Blues in Round 10, he went ahead and kicked five goals in a dominant display, and though they lost that game he will be hard to ignore in the voting. Of course, it takes more than one game to win the Brownlow Medal, but he has shown for a long time that he polls very well in this award, and while he hasn’t necessarily had his best start to the season, he will still be in the mix for votes in a number of early games. At over $20 he looks like one of the better long odds options on the board. 

Bet on Christian Petracca to win the Brownlow Medal at $21.00 with PlayUp 

Our Prediction

For the last month or so it has been Nick Daicos who looked like the value man in the Brownlow betting markets, and sure enough he has shortened significantly after a few big performances in the past few weeks. He no longer offers nearly the same value as he did a month ago, but having been close to $2 last year at a similar time, the $7 on offer for him still looks like a pretty decent bet. Polling 28 votes in just your second year in the league – particularly with no votes coming in the last six weeks of the season – is some effort, and with another year of his experience under his belt, plenty of likely polling games early in this season, and his team likely to win a whole lot of games once again after a slow start to the year, he will probably continue to shorten as the season wears on. Despite Heeney’s early dominance, it’s not hyperbolic to say that there is reason to think that Daicos should be favourite for this award.  

Statistics

Most Brownlow Medals by player

  • 3 – Haydn Bunton Sr. (Fitzroy), Dick Reynolds (Essendon), Bob Skilton (South Melbourne), Ian Stewart (St Kilda/Richmond)

Most Brownlow Medals by club

  • 14 – Sydney Swans/South Melbourne (1940, 1949, 1955, 1959, 1963, 1968, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1986, 1988, 1995, 2003, 2006)

Most Brownlow Medal votes in a season

  • 3–2–1 voting system: 36 – Dustin Martin (Richmond, 2017), Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide, 2021)
  • All voting systems: 59 – Graham Teasdale (South Melbourne, 1977)

Most Brownlow Medal votes in an entire career

  • 262 – Gary Ablett Jr. (Geelong/Gold Coast)

More Brownlow Medal votes than AFL/VFL matches

  •  Haydn Bunton, Sr.
  • Nat Fyfe

James is a sports writer from Melbourne, and has contributed to a variety of publications covering a range of sports including basketball, cricket, Australian Rules, golf and surfing to name a few. An avid fan of all of the above and more, James’ downtime is spent falling ungracefully off his surfboard, turning over footies and playing an out of tune guitar.

#
Betting Site
Brand Features
Bet Now
1
Best App
playup-betting-site
PlayUp
5.0
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Best Handicap
2
New Pick
betright-logo-betting-site
BetRight
4.8
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Bet Right Discord
3
boombet logo betting site
BoomBet
4.8
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Great Customer Service
4
PUNTERS' FAVORITE
dabble-logo-betting-sites
Dabble
4.8
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Copy Bets & Follow other punters
5
SPORTS PICK
bet365-logo-betting-sites
Bet365
4.8
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Best Bet Builder
6
New Pick
questbet-logo-betting-sites
QuestBet
4.7
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Solid Mobile App
7
elitebet-logo-betting-sites
EliteBet
4.7
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Regular money-back specials
9
Best for Greyhound
chasebet-logo-betting-sites
Chasebet
4.6
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Trending Bets
10
NEW
betgalaxy-logo-betting-sites
Betgalaxy
4.6
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Fun betting experience
11
wellbet-logo-betting-sites
WellBet
4.6
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Simple, Localised Betting
12
volcanobet-logo-betting-site
Volcanobet
4.5
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Fresh betting platform
13
HOT
puntgenie logo-betting-sites
PuntGenie
4.5
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Revolutionary Betting Interface
14
Popular Choice
puntnow-logo-betting-sites
PuntNow
4.4
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
competitive odds
15
juicybet logo-betting-site
JuicyBet
4.4
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Swift sign-up process
16
Best For Racing
vicbet-logo-betting-site
VicBet
4.4
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Racing specialists
17
betroyale-logo-betting-sites
BetRoyale
4.4
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Sleek Design
18
Best For Racing
midasbet logo-betting-site
MidasBet
4.4
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Opening Specials
19
winnersbet-logo-betting-sites
WinnersBet
4.3
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Daily Promotions
20
BetProfessor Betting Site
BetProfessor
4.3
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Slick app
21
goldenrush Betting Site
GoldenRush
4.3
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Top Bonuses
22
unibet-logo-betting-site
Unibet Australia
4.3
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Bet Share
23
sterling-parker-Betting Site
SterlingParker
4.2
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Quality software & layout
24
junglebet Betting Site
JungleBet
4.2
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Refreshing website theme
25
getsetbet logo-betting-site
GetSetBet
4.2
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
GetSetBet TV
26
puntcity Betting Site
PuntCity
4.1
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Same game multis available
27
Best for e-Sports
picklebet-Betting Site
Picklebet
4.0
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Engaging App
28
draftstars-Betting Site
Draftstars
4.0
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Fantasy Sports
29
topsport-white
TopSport
4.0
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
High betting limits
30
Best App
bluebet Betting Site
BlueBet
4.0
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Same Race & Game Multis
31
palmerbet-Betting Site
Palmerbet
3.9
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Great Promotions
32
real-bookie Betting Site
RealBookie
3.9
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Regular Offers
33
Best for Greyhound
betdogs-white Betting Site
BetDogs
2.8
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Great betting odds
questbet-logo-betting-sites
Fun new Australian sportsbook.

Use Promo code: BETTINGTOP10

Visit Site
Close