AFL 2023 Brownlow Medal Winner Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

Nick Daicos was probably a little too short to win the Brownlow Medal at stages throughout the year, and though he was gradually pegged back by the likes of Christian Petracca and Marcus Bontempelli, a month ago he was still odds on favourite to win it. When he went down with a knee injury a few weeks out from season’s end, it threw the market into chaos, with the man who was nominal favourite all season being reeled back in by the chasing pack. With Daicos not playing the last month or so of the home and away season it’s now expected to be a whole lot tighter at the top. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the favourites to take out the AFL’s most prestigious individual award.

Updated: 18 August 2023

Nick Daicos has been the runaway favourite to win the Brownlow Medal in just his second season in the AFL for much of the year, and just a few short weeks ago he was as short as nearly $1.50 with many bookmakers. Even had he played out the season that did seem a little short in an award in which surprises are relatively common, but when he suffered a knee injury against Hawthorn in Round 21, those who had taken him at such short odds would have been kicking themselves.
That injury means that he won’t poll a vote after Round 20, meaning he’ll have a few less games to get to a winning number in the Brownlow Medal count than his main opposition. With a couple of other names in particular expected to poll well, that could easily be the difference between him winning or not. So brilliant was his form throughout the season up until his injury, however, it’s still very plausible that he gets enough votes even without playing for the last month, and his odds do look a little juicier now. If you back him, however, you’ll need to hope he develops a solid lead heading into the latter stages of the season.

Bet on Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow Medal at $3.00

Marcus Bontempelli has long been one of Nick Daicos’ primary contender for the 2023 Brownlow Medal, and with Daicos’ injury he jumped into a tie for favouritism with a few weeks to go in the season. He’s been getting better as the season goes on, putting in a number of performances which seem guaranteed to get him at least one vote, and very possibly three. His Round 21 performance against the Tigers saw him rack up 32 touches and kick three goals in a clear best on ground display, while two weeks earlier he had 29 and 2 and the week before that he had 31 and 2.

He's having a sensational year, and looks very capable of going close to matching, if not bettering, his highest tally in the Brownlow, which came in 2021 when he polled a huge 33 votes which included 9 best on grounds and 3 two-vote games. He may very well find himself behind Daicos with a few weeks to go in the season, but if he’s within a few votes he could easily swoop on the lead late. The last two games of the season could be telling for his chances.

Bet on Marcus Bontempelli to win the Brownlow Medal @ $3.00

In my eyes at least, Christian Petracca’s odds have been a little too long all season, and with Daicos going down he has come into near favouritism to win this award. He’s having yet another fantastic season in a top four team, and with Clayton Oliver missing a large chunk of the season he’ll have one less fellow midfielder to take votes away from him. As always, Petracca’s best performances are hard to ignore – he kicked four goals two weeks in a row in Rounds 17 and 18, had 33 and 34 touches the two weeks prior, and has added games with 29 touches and a goal and 27 touches and two goals in the last few weeks of the season.

Nearly every week he is among the top possession getters on the ground, while he also kicks plenty of goals. He’s polled 20 or more votes each of his past three years and this year he has been as good, if not better, than on those occasions. In each of those years Oliver has polled plenty of votes too, so with him gone it seems very likely that Petracca will this year go well past his career best tally of 24 votes. At decent odds and with Daicos to miss the last month, there could be some good value to be had here.

Bet on Christian Petracca to win the Brownlow Medal at $3.75

There’s a fair bit of separation after the above trio, with Zak Butters coming in as the fourth favourite to win the Brownlow Medal at $13 a couple of weeks out from the conclusion of the home and away season. For a time he was getting better seemingly every week and it felt like he was destined to eventually be close to favouritism, with a period of games in which he will likely poll very heavily catching the eyes of the AFL world.

Come about Round 14, however, he went through something of a lull, picking up just 23, 25, 22 and 17 disposals in his next four games during a run in which he probably won’t poll votes. With that form he looked likely to fade out of contention in the Brownlow Medal – until all of a sudden he bounced back to some of the best form of his career. After the second lowest possession count of his season in Round 18, he went on to pick up 30 or more touches in each of his four games, though three of those were losses which may hinder his chances of picking up big votes. Still, he’s had a few scintillating patches of form throughout the season, so if he catches the umpires eyes he will pick up plenty of votes.

Bet on Zak Butters to win the Brownlow Medal @ $13.00

Lachie Neale hasn’t had the best year of his career, but he’s nonetheless consistently among the best players in a Brisbane team which has won plenty of games throughout the course of the year. Neale is also a proven vote getter – he won the award back in 2020 with 31 votes, while last year he managed 28. In both of those years, his penchant for three-vote games have been the reason for his high vote tallies – 30 of his 31 in 2020 came from ten best on grounds, while he had seven three-vote games in his 28 votes last year.

He'll need to pick up plenty of them this year too if he’s to compete in what looks like being a high scoring vote count. The lack of goals he has kicked this year – just three in the first 22 rounds of the season – won’t help, and he has been a little down on his usual prolific ball-winning. But despite that, he has had plenty of big games – five times he’s had 34 or more touches, and he’s had 30 or more another three times. Realistically he hasn’t been the best player in the league this season, but he’s a terrific player on a good team who the umpires clearly notice, so he could poll well.

Bet on Lachie Neale to win the Brownlow Medal at $21.00

Jordan Dawson has never been in the Premiership conversation, or even near it, but in 2023 he has justifiably put his name right in the mix with by far the best season of his career. His fantastic ball use has been evident throughout his career, but this year it’s been complemented by an ability to win the footy and a contested side to his game which wasn’t previously so evident.
He's been a major reason for the Crows’ ascent this year, and as one of the most consistent players in the game puts himself in the discussion for votes most weeks. Exactly how many votes that translates to, however, remains to be seen. He’s never before polled more than eight votes, and there are times when players who rise rapidly don’t quite get the reward on Brownlow night in their first year as an elite player. He may suffer that same fate, but if the umpires are able to cotton on to just what a pivotal cog he has been for the Crows so often, his consistency could see him poll very, very well.

Bet on Jordan Dawson to win the Brownlow Medal @ $21.00

In his first season as a Tiger, Taranto has played as well as he ever has and a couple of months ago was right up there as a Brownlow Medal favourite. It’s very possible that he’ll poll extremely well over that first half or so of the season – picking up 30 touches virtually every week while also hitting the scoreboard with as much regularity as nearly any midfielder in the competition means he could very easily pick up a huge number of votes in a short period of time.

That form has not quite endured all the way to season’s end, however, and that will likely result in him falling out of contention as the count goes on. He’s still been a solid player for the Tigers, but after picking up 30 touches in nine of ten games between Rounds 5 and 14, he didn’t do it once up until the time of writing just prior to Round 23, and aside from a three-goal effort in Round 19 his scoreboard impact has waned too. He probably won’t poll many votes after Round 14, so for him to be in the mix he’ll need the umpires to have really liked what he was doing earlier in the year.

Bet on Tim Taranto to win the Brownlow Medal at $26.00

With Zak Butters going crazy earlier in the year, Connor Rozee was very much playing second fiddle in the Power midfield, but while Butters dropped off a little as the season wore on, Rozee has remained as consistent as ever. He’ll be in the mix for votes in plenty of games in the first half of the season, too, but over the back half he may poll even more – starting off with a 23-possession, three-goal performance in Round 16, he went on to pick up between 26 and 29 touches in six consecutive games and kicked multiple goals in three of those, too – all the kinds of performances which may well attract a few votes.

Unfortunately for him, that consistent run of excellent form coincided with Port Adelaide’s four-game losing streak, meaning his likelihood of picking up votes – and specifically three of them – is a lot less. It’s possible that he’ll find himself just outside the top three on numerous occasions, but by so consistently putting himself among the best few players on the ground he could easily poll a few more votes than expected.

Bet on Connor Rozee to win the Brownlow Medal at $41.00

It’s not easy to win the Brownlow Medal as a half forward, and that may well count against Toby Greene in the count this year. But few would argue against the fact that he is among the absolute best players in the game, with his ability to find the footy and hit the scoreboard very regularly making him the Giants’ most important players, and one of the most important in the AFL.

His impact is undeniable, and in plenty of GWS games it feels as though he is one of the determining factors in the outcome. His ability to do something special just when his team needs it is uncanny, and his penchant for kicking three goals or more – something he did in 12 of his first 19 games – while also picking up close to 20 touches is something no one else in the league is really capable of. He is deserving of a whole lot of votes, but the Brownlow is rightly known as a midfielders’ award, which may count against him.

Bet on Toby Greene to win the Brownlow Medal at $41.00

Hasn’t this guy flown into calculations over the back half of the season? Errol Gulden, recognised since he entered the league in 2021 for his incredible foot skills, has this year taken his game to a new level, complementing those skills with an elite ability to find the footy and becoming perhaps the best wingman in the game, with Josh Daicos his only real competition. A few massive games early in the season may well yield three votes, but they were few and far between. As the season has worn on, however, he’s become more consistent.

Between Rounds 14 and 21 he picked up 26 touches or more in all but one game and 30+ in five of those, while he also averaged more than a goal a game in that period. What’s more, the Swans lost just twice during that period. He’s only picked up five votes in his career to date so may very well suffer the same fate that Dawson might in his first year as one of the game’s elite, but equally, he could easily have plenty of three-vote games and be a good roughie at long odds.

Bet on Errol Gulden to win the Brownlow Medal @ $41.00

There are some serious names in the list above, and the top five in particular all look very capable of taking out the 2023 Brownlow Medal. Christian Petracca is the name I’ve been backing all year, and with Daicos’ injury his chances have only increased. His odds have decreased as a result, but with Oliver having been out for so long, he still looks like decent value to take out his first ever Brownlow Medal.

Christian Petracca to Win the 2023 AFL Brownlow Medal

Most Brownlow Medals by player

• 3 – Haydn Bunton Sr. (Fitzroy), Dick Reynolds (Essendon), Bob Skilton (South Melbourne), Ian Stewart (St Kilda/Richmond)

Most Brownlow Medals by club

• 14 – Sydney Swans/South Melbourne (1940, 1949, 1955, 1959, 1963, 1968, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1986, 1988, 1995, 2003, 2006)

Most Brownlow Medal votes in a season

• 3–2–1 voting system: 36 – Dustin Martin (Richmond, 2017), Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide, 2021)
• All voting systems: 59 – Graham Teasdale (South Melbourne, 1977)

Most Brownlow Medal votes in an entire career

• 262 – Gary Ablett Jr. (Geelong/Gold Coast)

More Brownlow Medal votes than AFL/VFL matches

•  Haydn Bunton, Sr.
• Nat Fyfe