AFL 2024 Least Wins Wooden Spoon Betting – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The race for the 2024 AFL Wooden Spoon was expected by most to be a race in two between the Kangaroos and the Eagles, just as it was last year. Entering the last couple of months of the home and away season, three teams remain a realistic chance of ending the season with the least wins and they are two of them, the other being a Richmond side which has rapidly tumbled down the ladder, accelerated significantly by a hefty injury list. The Eagles have actually shown plenty of improvement at times this year and are the longest odds of the three by some margin, while the Kangaroos struggled immensely before a much-improved June, and the Tigers have slotted in right in between the two in the betting. Below, we take a look at the chances of each of them of finishing on the bottom of the ladder this season. 

Updated: 4th July 2024

It is no great surprise to see the Kangaroos the runaway favourite to end the season with the least wins, having entered it widely expected to go toe to toe with the Eagles for the dubious honour. They have not won more than four games since 2019 and it looks likely that trend will continue for at least another year, but despite the fact that they will probably finish in last this year, there are at least some signs of light at the end of what has been a very long tunnel. 
 
That certainly was not evident early in the year. In fact, their first 11 games of the season were nothing short of a disaster, albeit not an unexpected one, as they lost each and every one of those games predominantly by a hefty margin. The closest they came to victory in that time was when they lost to the Dockers by 26 points in Round 2; the rest of those 11 defeats was by 38 points or more and seven of them were by at least nine goals. 
 
Finally, however, they broke their duck against the Eagles in Round 13, and that kickstarted a run of some of the best form they have shown in years which lasted the month of June. It didn’t yield any other wins – they were 1-3 throughout the month – but after being pumped in every previous game of the season, they followed that Eagles game with a one-point loss to the reigning Premiers, the Magpies – in which they led by nine goals before falling in a heap – then stormed home to lose by just three points to the Demons, before losing competitively by 17 points to the Bulldogs. 
 
They still have a long way to go, but some causes for optimism are beginning to appear. Already Nick Larkey has established himself as a gun key forward, and with Charlie Comben making a name for himself down back they have now book-ended their best 22 with a couple of talented big men at either end of the field. Luke Davies-Uniacke has taken yet another step forward, Harry Sheezel is already a star of the competition, while George Wardlaw continues to show what he is capable of and Colby McKercher has shown why he was such a high draft pick in last year’s draft. Those players obviously need to keep developing and need some others to join them for the ride, but there is a lot more to like about this young team than there has been previously. 
 
As for this year, however, those players may not be enough to keep them off the bottom of the ladder. The way that they played throughout June suggests that they are more than capable of stealing another couple of games, at least, over the remainder of the season, though whether that will be enough to tear them away from bottom spot remains to be seen. The Eagles have fallen back in a heap as the Kangaroos have started to play well while the Tigers continue to struggle and may not bother trying to get many of their injury-riddled older players through the rest of the year, so both of those two teams may not have too many more wins on the horizon this year either. If North Melbourne can snatch another two or three wins it may be enough to at least tie for least wins, but at this point they do still deserve to be the relatively comfortable favourite.  

• What brings them here? The bottom of the ladder has been the domain of the Kangaroos for many years, and though they are showing some gradual signs of improvement they are still deserved favourites to finish last.
• What has changed? The Kangaroos lost a couple of club stalwarts in Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington to retirement at the end of last year, while Todd Goldstein and Ben McKay headed to Essendon via free agency. Zac Fisher and Dylan Stephens were traded in from Carlton and Sydney respectively, while Zane Duursma and Colby McKercher were a couple of high draft picks who they snared.
• Injury update: Both Callum Coleman-Jones and Josh Goater are out for the season with Achilles injuries, while George Wardlaw, Zac Fisher and Blake Drury have had short-term injuries which they are returning from in early July.

Bet on North Melbourne Kangaroos to finish the season with the least wins at $1.40 with PlayUp

The Tigers were never expected to be world beaters this year after a significant drop off last season, though the extent of their struggles has come as a surprise to most. Of course, an undeniably significant reason for that is injuries. Certainly every side deals with these to some degree and teams themselves are generally loathed to place too much blame on it, but there is no denying the fact that there is little that they could have done to avoid falling right down the ladder this year given the number of games missed by key players. 
 
Of course, a lack of depth and a list in need of some replenishment certainly doesn’t help. But with an injury list which has seen them at various points with only 24 or 25 players to choose from, and virtually every player on their list named in the AFL side throughout the season, it was never going to be feasible for them to win all that many games. Five different players have endured season-ending ACL injuries this season, among them talented key position back Josh Gibcus, fellow best 22 defender Tylar Young and perhaps their best find of the year in forward Mykelti Lefau. They have been joined on the sideline by Tom Lynch, who has missed most of the year, Noah Balta for a month, both Maurice Rioli Jr and Jack Ross for a couple of months, while Dion Prestia has also missed plenty of games, and Dylan Grimes is now out for the season. They alone make up close to half of Richmond’s best 22, and though they will get a few back over the remaining couple of months of the season, they will still be without most of those aforementioned names all year. 
 
Despite those injuries they have been really competitive at times, though for the most part they have been unable to sustain that for four quarters. The solitary exceptions up until the beginning of July came, bizarrely, when they beat the Swans, while they also knocked off the Crows in Adelaide in an impressive display. For most of the first half of the year they were competitive in nearly every game, but eventually the lack of wins clearly got to them and they spent a few weeks getting pumped. They bounced back with another competitive few weeks, but as the season wears on they again appear to be running out of fuel.  
 
After beating the Crows, they lost in an uninspiring effort in Dustin Martin’s 300th game against the Hawks by 48 points, while the next week they were beaten by ten goals by the Blues. In the latter of those games they did again show plenty of heart in the first half, but the talent differential was plain to see when the Blues ran all over them in the second half. 
 
It's difficult to know exactly how the rest of the Tigers season will play out. They have little to play for, but with a list which, while not great, is much better than what their record this year would indicate, there is every chance they will bounce back a few rungs up the ladder next year, and a high draft pick would be a welcome addition. After a tough month of July they have a few winnable games to round out the year, and they will probably determine whether they can keep off bottom spot or not. The cue may very well be in the rack by then, but equally they will probably have a few currently injured players back who will see them head into one or two of their last four games as favourite. More than likely they will win another game or two this season and remain off the bottom of the ladder, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them fall in a heap and give the Kangaroos a run for their money. 

• What brings them here? The Tigers have been falling down the ladder since their dynasty ended a couple of years ago, and that fall has been accelerated by injuries this year. 
   
• What has changed? Adem Yze has come in as coach, while Sam Naismith was brought across as a free agent from the Swans, Jacob Koschitzke traded from the Hawks, and Mykelti Lefau picked up as an SSP. Premiership heroes Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt hung up the boots after illustrious careers as did Robbie Tarrant, while Ivan Soldo was traded to the Power.
• Injury update: Where to start. As mentioned, each of Mykelti Lefau, Josh Gibcus, Tylar Young, Judson Clarke and Sam Naismith is out for the year with ACL injuries, while Dylan Grimes’ back will see him out ofr the year too. Jack Ross is due back from a long-term foot injury in late July/early August, and each of Maurice Rioli Jr, Marlion Pickett and Tom Lynch a couple of weeks before him. Mid-season recruit Campbell Gray booted four goals in the VFL soon after being picked up, but also did a hamstring which will keep him out until early August.

Bet on Richmond Tigers to finish the season with the least wins at $3.00 with PlayUp

After they were perhaps the worst team of the AFL era over the past couple of years, the Eagles didn’t have to do all that much to improve this season. And with a few less injuries than what they have had to contend with recently, they have certainly showed some signs. Those signs have by and large been contained to a period of a few weeks in the middle of the season and were exclusively on their home turf, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers after what they have dished up over the past couple of years. 
 
Their start to the year certainly wasn’t much chop, with three progressively worse defeats to begin the year, but after they broke through with a defeat of the Tigers in Round 5 they strung together a number of good performances. They, somewhat inexplicably in hindsight, beat the Dockers easily in the Western Derby, lost to the Bombers by just a goal a fortnight later, then beat the Demons by six goals two weeks after that. 
 
Improvement came from various places, not least the transformation of Jake Waterman to borderline best 22 medium forward to one of the most dangerous in the game – at least for a few weeks – while Harley Reid has been every bit as good as advertised and Elliot Yeo has wound back the clock. They remain far from the finished product, but there are at least bits and pieces to like, particularly given they did all that without captain Oscar Allen. 
 
Unfortunately, following the defeat of Melbourne, they came tumbling back to earth with five consecutive defeats, a number of them really poor ones. A 99-point drubbing at the hands of the Crows started it, while a 94-33 loss to the Hawks out of which nothing good came, according to coach Adam Simpson, rounded out a very disappointing June.  
 
The Eagles have clearly improved, though whether they will be able to pull out any more of the somewhat scattered impressive performances over the rest of the year remains to be seen. Realistically it would be no great surprise to see them struggle, but the ability for them to turn it on, albeit on an inconsistent basis, is clearly there. They may well have already won enough games to avoid finishing on the least wins in the AFL, and they would be hoping that they will win at least one or two more games over the course of the year to really be sure of that. 
 
It is not, however, entirely out of the realms of possibility that they do struggle as the season wears on, as teams often do, and with a game against North Melbourne to come later in the year, a loss there could put them right back in the mix in this market. It’s very likely that the Eagles have already done enough to avoid at least finishing with the outright least wins in the league, though it’s certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that they do end up there.

• What brings them here? After their last couple of years the Eagles were always likely to be in this conversation throughout the course of the season, though some improvement has seen them establish themselves as a significant outsider in the discussion. 
• What has changed? Nic Naitanui retired, though he was injured last year anyway, as did Luke Shuey and Shannon Hurn. Tyler Brockman was traded across from the Hawks, but the biggest acquisition for the Eagles was number one draft pick Harley Reid.
• Injury update: The Eagles are, for once, looking reasonable from an injury perspective. Noah Long will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, but that aside all other names on the injury list are short termers. They do include some important players, including Waterman, Dom Sheed and Jack Petrucelle, but none of them will likely be out beyond mid-July.

Bet on West Coast Eagles to finish the season with the least wins at $10.00 with PlayUp

With just three teams remaining in this market it is difficult to find value, something which has only become more true as the season wears on. This is pretty common in such a market as the likelihood of change becomes drastically less, and unfortunately for punters, the odds for the above three teams look pretty spot on at the time of writing. The Eagles could be a decent outsider given that both North Melbourne and Richmond have some capacity to win a couple more games, but the Kangaroos really do look the most likely to finish bottom. With games against both the Tigers and the Eagles in the last few weeks of the season, however, that could easily change and their short odds don’t look great, making this a really tough market to bet on. Most likely the Kangaroos will finish last, but it’s hard to say that the odds are worth it. 

Wooden Spoon teams that failed to win a match

• Thirteen wooden spoon teams failed to win a match during a VFL/AFL season, the most recent being Fitzroy in 1964.

Most Wooden Spoons Won

• 27 – St Kilda Saints, most recently in 2014.

Least Wooden Spoons Won

• Only the Port Adelaide Power have never won the Wooden Spoon. Ironically, the 21st century’s least successful club, the Carlton Blues, has won all 5 of their Wooden Spoons since 2002.

Most ‘successful’ Wooden Spoon team

• The 1976 Collingwood Magpies hold the record for the most wins by a wooden spoon team in a season with six wins.

AFL/AFLW Wooden Spoon ‘Double’

• Carlton are the only team to have both men’s and women’s teams win the wooden spoon in the same season, occurring in 2018.