AFL Coleman Medal Winner 2024 Odds – Expert Predictions & Tips

The race for the 2024 Coleman Medal has developed into a ‘catch Charlie if you can’, with one man very clearly sitting in second as the most likely to do that. But while Gold Coast’s Ben King and Carlton’s Charlie Curnow have established themselves as the comfortable favourites, there is still plenty of time left in the home and away season and a lot of time left as a result for things to change. Below, we will take a look at all of the players still in the mix to finish this season with the most goals, and try to suss out which of them offer the best value in this market. 

Updated: 5 July 2024
 

As the winner of the last two Coleman Medal’s, Charlie Curnow was always expected to be right up there in the goalkicking this year, and with a couple of months to go he has emerged as clearly the man to beat. He has not actually been as dominant from a goalkicking perspective, but what he has been is incredibly consistent, and with a dearth of other players having big goalkicking years he has established a nice lead atop the leaderboard. In his first 15 games of the season, the Blues’ spearhead kicked multiple goals 15 times, but what is likely going to prevent him from booting as many as he has in the past couple of years is the lack of big bags he has enjoyed this year. It wasn’t until Round 16 that he kicked more than four in a game, and in that one he just ticked past to five; compare that to last year when, over the course of the season, he booted 10 once, 9 once and 6 twice. Still, very consistently kicking around three goals per game is enough to get a player to close to 70, which will be around the mark for the Coleman Medal. After Round 17 he had developed a three goal lead over his nearest rival and an eight goal lead over third place, so he will take some catching playing for a Blues team which is doing a good job of establishing itself as the best team in the league outside of the Swans. Unfortunately he is not great value in the market, but Curnow is clearly the man to beat.

Bet on Charlie Curnow to win the Coleman Medal @ $1.60 with PlayUp

Ben King has never kicked more than 47 goals in his career, having hovered between 40 and that number in each of his past three seasons – excluding, of course, the 2022 season he missed with an ACL injury. This year, however, he is set to fly past that and has put himself right in the mix for his first Coleman Medal. Not that you’d know about it; playing up on the Gold Coast he does not get quite as much attention as his southern counterparts, but he has been as reliable as anyone in the league up forward for his Suns. His season has actually been very similar to that of Curnow – excluding a goalless Round 2 effort, he kicked multiple goals in every game up until the beginning of July, though never booted more than 5 in that time – and he only achieved that number once, in Round 1. Those numbers were enough to see him going at exactly the same rate as Curnow two-thirds of the way into the season, with 42 goals in 14 games at three per outing – three less than Curnow, who had played one extra game to that point in the season. There is no reason to think that King is going to slow down given how consistent he has been this year, and the lack of fanfare he gets relative to the more celebrated Curnow means that he is probably a little over the odds. 

Bet on Ben King to win the Coleman Medal @ $4.50 with BoomBet

Not all that long ago Jesse Hogan was a lot shorter in this market than he is now, but he has really fallen off from a goalkicking perspective and now looks hard pressed to even get close to the Coleman Medal. Perhaps that should have been expected; Hogan has never been a dominant goalkicking, having never passed the 50-goal threshold in nine seasons in the league, but 21 goals in his first six games this season suggested that maybe he was in for a breakout year at the ripe old age of 29. But for an extended period now, normal programming has resumed for the Giants forward, whose form has largely mirrored that of his team throughout the year. In his nine outings between Rounds 8 and 17, Hogan booted more than two goals on just one occasion – kicking three against the Bulldogs – and kicked a total of 15 in that time – just 1.6 per game and not nearly enough to go with the likes of Curnow and King. After that collection of games, Hogan had fallen nine behind Curnow, and will need more than a couple of big bags over the last two months of the season to catch up. Given that aforementioned glut of goals since the beginning of the year, it is very hard to see him doing that. In fairness to Hogan, his form has coincided with the downturn of his Giants and the reduced quantity and quality of ball he is getting has no doubt played a part, but regardless of the reason, he looks unlikely to be winning the Coleman Medal this year. 

Bet on Jesse Hogan to win the Coleman Medal @ $13.00 with PlayUp 

The 2021 winner of the Coleman Medal, Harry McKay’s goalkicking has regressed over the past couple of years and last year he managed just 29 in a season which was punctuated by his failure to convert around goal, but he has looked a lot more like the McKay of old in 2024. Eleven goals and just a solitary behind in the first three weeks was a great way to start the season, and though he has not maintained that accuracy (clearly) or that pace of goalkicking, he has still been really good this season. McKay tends to play higher up the ground than many others in this list, not least his fellow Carlton forward in Curnow, and clearly that limits his goalkicking opportunities. While Curnow has kicked multiple goals every game, McKay kicked one or zero goals in five of his first 15 games of the season, but with a couple of solid bags he has somewhat stayed on pace with the leaders. But still, with a couple of months to go in the season he found himself 11 behind Curnow, and more than likely the only way for him to catch his teammate – as well as Ben King – is an injury to Curnow – which would both slow him down, while also forcing McKay to play closer to goal. Clearly we don’t want that and it’s not a particularly sound reason to bet on something, and assuming everyone stays healthy McKay probably won’t really trouble top spot in the Carlton goalkicking, let alone that of the league. 

Bet on Harry McKay to win the Coleman Medal @ $13.00 with BoomBet

It took Jake Waterman just a little over six games to boot more goals in 2024 than he ever has in a season in his career, a milestone he reached when he snagged four against the Suns in Round 8 following bags of first six and then five in the two weeks prior. It was the hottest run of form the mid-sized Eagles’ forward has ever enjoyed, and it didn’t stop there as he went on to kick three the week after and five the week after that to take his tally over that five-week block to 23 goals. After not being remotely on the radar, that put him very suddenly right in the Coleman Medal conversation, and though he has unsurprisingly not been able to maintain that pace, he remains in the mix with a couple of months to go in the season – albeit as an outsider. He has been one of, if not the, most improved players for the Eagles this year, developing from a bit-piece forward to a genuinely dangerous one, and by the end of June he had booted 37 goals (and just 15 behinds) in his 13 games. That was enough to have him sitting third in the Coleman Medal race, though with an eight-goal gap to first he has a fair bit of work to do. Most of Waterman’s damage has been done in the absence of star forward and captain Oscar Allen, so it will be interesting to see how Allen’s return affects the output of Waterman. More than likely he won’t be able to bridge the gap on Curnow and King and if he does while playing for a bottom side it will be a serious effort, though if he can find an extended patch of form like he did earlier in the season he will certainly go close. Waterman is an unlikely winner, but the capacity to boot bags week after week that he showed earlier in the year means he’s not the worst outsider going around. 

Bet on Jake Waterman to win the Coleman Medal @ $13.00 with BoomBet

After that top five, there is a significant drop back to Joe Daniher, who finds himself in a tie for sixth in the Coleman Medal betting. Daniher had the second most productive season of his career from a goalkicking perspective in 2023, kicking 61 over the course of the year – though it is worth noting that ten of those came in the finals. This year he looks set to hit a similar mark, which wouldn’t be enough to win him the Coleman Medal but which will have him close enough that a bit of an uptick in production could have him in the mix should Curnow and King not close out the season particularly well. Daniher has been held back to some extent this year by his goalkicking – he had kicked 32.29 by Round 18, but his form is certainly trending in the right direction. After his first nine games yielded just 15 goals, the Lions’ spearhead booted 17 in his next six, kicking multiple goals in each of those games. But five of those games yielded two or three goals, with just the one five-goal effort, and if he is to bridge the gap between the goalkicking leaders over the last couple of months of the season he will need a lot more of those kinds of games. Daniher is a long shot in every sense of the word, and though his form and that of his team is trending in the right direction, it’s hard to see him ending the season with the Coleman Medal around his neck. 

Bet on Joe Daniher to win the Coleman Medal @ $41.00 with BoomBet 

Jeremy Cameron is one of the most capable goalkickers in the AFL, but such is his versatility and talent he is often cast in a role which doesn’t result in all that many goals. That has certainly been the case this year. In his first 14 games of the year up until the time of writing, Cameron managed 29.21, on track for a fair few less snags in the home and away season than what he has managed over the past couple of years. There have been a couple of bags thrown in the mix – six goals against the Kangaroos in Round 6 and five against the Blues a fortnight later – but that aside he has kicked three just once, and every other game has yielded two goals or less. That has seen him concede a gap to the leaders which will likely be impossible to bridge, though Cameron, as much as anyone in the league, is capable of booting big bags – and potentially a number of them. Also in his favour, not that he would have wished for it, is the injury to fellow Geelong spearhead Tom Hawkins which will see him miss the bulk of the rest of the home and away season. The Cats do have other players to slot in and play the Hawkins role closer to goal, allowing Cameron to continue to roam further up the ground, but they won’t have the ability of Hawkins and Cameron will likely still spend more time closer to goal with Hawkins out. That was evident from the get-go – though he booted just three goals in Round 16, when Hawkins missed close to half the game after suffering the injury, and two the week after with Hawkins absent, he had 11 scoring shots across those two games – significant given that he hadn’t had more than three in a single game for the five weeks prior. Expect Cameron to start booting goals at a higher clip than he has been so far this year over the coming weeks, and potentially bridge the gap on Curnow and King. His odds will potentially shorten if he does that fast enough so at long odds he is perhaps the player most capable of putting his name in the ring, but he is a long, long way back. 

Bet on Jeremy Cameron to win the Coleman Medal @ $51.00 with BoomBet 

It’s hard to understate just how impressive Nick Larkey’s 2023 season was. Playing for a team which won just three games and none between Round 2 and the last of the season, he went extremely close to winning the Coleman Medal, booting 71 goals in a season which typified the benefits of accurate goalkicking and just how much of an impact a player can make when they capitalise on their opportunities. This year, however, he has not quite been able to replicate that form. At 26 years of age, Larkey has barely played for a competitive player in his career and if and when he does he will no doubt reap the rewards, but as for this year it looks like even vying for the Coleman Medal is going to be out of his reach. In his first 15 games of the season, Larkey was typically efficient, but with just 28.11 put himself a long, long way back in the Coleman Medal race. It took him until Round 14 to kick more than three goals, and though he managed that a couple of weeks in a row, he followed that up with consecutive goalless weeks. With Curnow and King racing away from him, his Coleman Medal chances look pretty much done and dusted. 

Bet on Nick Larkey to win the Coleman Medal @ $51.00 with BoomBet

Despite being one of the best teams in the league for a number of years now, the Demons have long lacked a genuine damaging key forward, but that has always been offset to some extent by the fact that they have Bayley Fritsch at their disposal. Perhaps the best medium-sized forward in the league, Fritsch is a great mark for his side, a dangerous lead-up target, a constant threat once the ball hits the ground and perhaps most importantly of all, an elite kick for goal. Those attributes saw him kick 59 goals in 2021 and 55 goals the next year, before last year he missed a number of games and finished with just 38. But he looks set to return to the kind of numbers he was putting up a couple of years ago in 2024, having booted 26 goals in his first 12 games of the year. A couple of uncharacteristic weeks followed with no scoring shots in Round 13 and then 1.4 the following week, but those kinds of performances are a rarity for the Dees forward and are in no small part a product of how his team is playing up the ground – the scoreless game came when they were pumped by 15 goals by the Dockers. If the Demons can find a way to arrest their poor run of form then Fritsch’s goalkicking should return, though that won’t likely be enough to get him right up there with Curnow and co, instead likely seeing him finish again with 50 or so goals. 

Bet on Joel Amartey to win the Coleman Medal @ $51.00 with PlayUp 

Finally, to Kyle Langford, the last player sitting at under $100 in this market. Langford showed his wares as a goalkicker playing his first season as a full-blown forward last year, kicking 51 goals in the year after never booting more than 15 in a season prior. This year, he has continued on a similar vein, and after his first 15 games had kicked 31.19 at a touch over a couple of snags a game. His consistency is a hallmark of his game; in those 15 outings he never booted more than four, but kicked at least two on ten occasions. Of course, that is a great trait for a forward and is great for the Bombers, but it is not quite enough to compete for a Coleman Medal. With close to 70 goals needed in recent years and again this year to win it, a couple of goals or so a game just is not quite enough. That is in no way a criticism of Langford, who has developed into a pivotal player for Essendon, but he is not the type of player to kick huge bags all that often, which he would need to get back into the Coleman Medal race. This is another good season from the Bombers’ spearhead, but he won’t be winning the Coleman Medal. 

Bet on Kyle Langford to win the Coleman Medal @ $67.00 with BoomBet

With just three teams remaining in this market it is difficult to find value, something which has only become more true as the season wears on. This is pretty common in such a market as the likelihood of change becomes drastically less, and unfortunately for punters, the odds for the above three teams look pretty spot on at the time of writing. The Eagles could be a decent outsider given that both North Melbourne and Richmond have some capacity to win a couple more games, but the Kangaroos really do look the most likely to finish bottom. With games against both the Tigers and the Eagles in the last few weeks of the season, however, that could easily change and their short odds don’t look great, making this a really tough market to bet on. Most likely the Kangaroos will finish last, but it’s hard to say that the odds are worth it.