AFL Coleman Medal Winner 2024 Odds – Expert Predictions & Tips

AFL Coleman Medal
AFL Coleman Medal Winner 2024

As expected, the race for the 2024 Coleman Medal is being dominated by big men, though the final tally required to win it might not be quite as high as it was last year when Charlie Curnow booted 78 goals in the home and away season. He is once again leading the charge, but a little over halfway through the season has not yet got halfway to that number, and after he and Ben King there is a bit of a gap to third at the time of writing. But with plenty of time still to go, there are numerous players still more than capable of ending the season with the Coleman Medal around the neck. Below, we take a look at the chances of all the favourites to win this award. 

Updated: 14 June 2024
 

AFL 2024 Coleman Medal Winner Odds

Favourites to win the 2024 Coleman Medal

Charlie Curnow (Carlton Blues)

As the winner of the last two Coleman Medals, it is no surprise to see Charlie Curnow once again in the mix in 2024. Ever since finally getting an injury free run after playing just 15 games in three years between 2019 and 2021, he has been every bit as good as most people expected him to be and then some, booting 64 goals in 2022 and then 78 last year. He is as talented as any big man in the league, elite both in the air and on the deck and super skilful both around goal and up the field. And with a midfield boasting the likes of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh getting the ball to him plenty, he has ample opportunity to hit the scoreboard. Curnow has been incredibly consistent this season, booting multiple goals in each of his first 13 games, though notably absent have been the big bags which he has managed in past years – his biggest tally in that time is just four. That’s the primary reason why he looks unlikely to hit the number of goals that he managed last year, but 2-4 goals per game will still see him hit close to 70, and that may very well be enough to win his third Coleman in a row. It’s also hard to imagine him going the rest of the year without breaking the shackles and kicking a big bag at least once or twice, and with a couple of bags combined with his consistency in the rest of the games, he will very possibly end the year on top of the goalkicking ladder. He might not have been at his absolute devastating best this year, but Curnow deserves to be favourite and looks decent value at better than even money odds.

Bet on Charlie Curnow to win the Coleman Medal @ $2.50 with PlayUp

Ben King (Gold Coast Suns)

Gold Coast Suns AFL

Like many of his teammates, Ben King flies a little under the radar in the AFL world, but he shouldn’t be. He has taken a huge step forward this year and established himself as one of the premier forwards in the competition, and a legitimate chance to win the Coleman Medal this year. He has never really been in the mix before in his five-year career, and in his last two seasons – which excludes 2022 when he missed with an ACL injury – he has booted 47 and 40 goals. But with a couple of years of continuity now under his belt, a little over halfway through this year he has just about hit those numbers already. King booted 38 goals through his first 13 games of the year to sit level with Curnow on top of the goalkicking tally, and like his Carlton counterpart has been incredibly consistent. King kicked five goals in Round 1 and then didn’t hit the scoreboard in Round 2, but in his next 11 games he kicked either 2, 3 or 4 goals on every occasion. He has been lethal in front of goal, with just 13 behinds accompanying those 38 goals, and from Round 8 to Round 13 he kicked at least three goals in every game. Unlike Curnow, King doesn’t have another elite key forward to contend with for the footy, and is the Suns go-to option up forward by some margin. There is no reason to expect that he won’t continue on in the same vein for the rest of the year and give this award a good shake. His consistency is a virtue and will hold him in good stead in this market, though perhaps the one concern is that he has never booted more than five goals in an AFL game. Over the remainder of the year, he may well need a couple of big bags to complement his reliable 2-4 goal games if he is to win this award. 

Bet on Ben King to win the Coleman Medal @ $4.00 with BoomBet

Jesse Hogan (Greater Western Sydney Giants)

Jesse Hogan came out of the blocks like a man possessed this year, establishing himself as probably Curnow’s biggest threat for the Coleman Medal with a white hot start to the season which mirrored that of his team. He kicked 21 goals in his first six games of the season, but much like his Giants his form since then has waned. His next six games yielded only 11 goals, with more than three coming just once in that time, and a gap opened up between he and the above names as a result. Having never booted 50 goals in a season, Hogan will need to have easily the most productive year of his career to go close to winning this award, but based on his first month and a half he should at the very least be kicking the highest tally out of his ten years in the AFL. But if he is to challenge for the Coleman Medal, he will need to find something more closely resembling the form that he displayed at the beginning of the year, and that in turn will likely require the Giants to start playing a hell of a lot better than they have been. Hogan is playing as well as he ever has this year, but thus far in his career he hasn’t really shown himself to be one of the game’s best forwards from a goalscoring perspective, notwithstanding the first few weeks of this year. At 29 he does appear to be hitting his straps like never before, but for somebody who hasn’t really been in the Coleman Medal mix for a long time his odds are not all that enticing.

Bet on Jesse Hogan to win the Coleman Medal @ $5.00 with PlayUp 

Harry McKay (Carlton Blues)

The second member of Carlton’s intimidating forward pairing, McKay hasn’t been at his goalscoring best since winning the Coleman Medal in 2021. He booted 45 goals the year after and then just 29 last year, and in the latter of those seasons in particular his distinct lack of confidence around goal was plain to see. That certainly isn’t to say that he wasn’t still a valuable contributor for the Blues; he spent plenty of time a long way up the ground and as a 204cm behemoth capable of marking anything, still caused plenty of headaches for his opposition. But unlike Curnow he has not been a prolific goalscorer in recent times. This year, however, the swagger of old appears to have returned. After kicking 29 goals and 29 points last year, he reached that same number of goals with just 14 points to his name after 13 games this season, putting himself in the top five in the goalkicking tally as a result. Courtesy of his more varied role, McKay doesn’t boast quite the consistency around goal as the likes of Curnow and King, and in five of his first 13 games kicked one goal or less. So while McKay does look likely to end the year with his best tally since 2021, it’s very difficult to win the Coleman Medal playing as a relatively high forward, and that will likely prove the case for McKay this year.

Bet on Harry McKay to win the Coleman Medal @ $10.00 with BoomBet

Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles)

West Coast Eagles AFL

Few would have expected Jake Waterman to be anywhere near this conversation this year, and for good reason. In six seasons in the AFL, the Eagles forward had never before kicked more than 18 goals and last year managed just 11 in as many games. His 2024 season didn’t start off in particularly different fashion, either, with six goals in his first four games, but a six-goal performance against the Tigers in Round 6 kickstarted a burst of form which saw him boot 27 goals in seven weeks to put himself with reaching distance of the Coleman Medal leaders. It’s hard to know just how sustainable this run is, but with every passing week that he continues to hit the scoreboard reasonably heavily, it seems more and more like this is the new Jake Waterman and less like it is just a purple patch. Still, given how sudden an improvement this is it remains hard to know whether it will continue at the same level all year, and he will also likely be slowed a little by the return of Oscar Allen to the forward line. Regardless, Waterman has showed this year that he is capable of a lot more than what most probably expected, and as a bit of an unknown he is not the worst value in this market. 

Bet on Jake Waterman to win the Coleman Medal @ $10.00 with BoomBet

Kyle Langford (Essendon Bombers)

Essendon AFL

Kyle Langford had his own Jake Waterman year last season, though that was in large part due to a change in role which saw him cast in the role as a permanent forward for the Bombers. Having not kicked more than 15 goals in eight seasons in the league, Langford proved a handful for opposing defences throughout 2023, ending with 51 goals to his name. This year, he looks on track to probably go past that number. He kicked 28 goals in his first 11 games of the year, booting at least two in all but a couple of them though never managing more than four. A couple of goalless weeks in a row in Rounds 13 and 14, however, stemmed the flow and put him a fair way back from Curnow and King on the goalkicking tally. Langford will likely continue to hit the scoreboard fairly regularly this year, but like he did last year it appears likely that he will end up with something in the vicinity of 50 to 60 goals in 2024; a great return no doubt, but not enough to end the season with the Coleman Medal around his neck. 

Bet on Kyle Langford to win the Coleman Medal @ $21.00 with BoomBet

Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats)

As perhaps the most talented player in the league, if Jeremy Cameron was playing a role more conducive to kicking goals he would probably be the favourite to win this award. As it is, his versatility means that he spends half his time roaming up the ground as a would-be winger, and his goalkicking is sporadic to say the least as a result. He actually started the year with two goals in each of his four games, before his next month of footy yielded six goals, 0 goals, five goals and then 0 goals again. As much as anybody Cameron is capable of kicking huge bags, but really it depends on the way a game is playing out whether he spends lots of time forward as a goalkicking threat, or more time up the ground, and that invariably means that it is hard for him to keep pace with Curnow, King and co over the course of a season. Last year was similar; he was right up there with Curnow for the first couple of months of the year but then failed to boot more than two in all but a couple of matches – one of which yielded seven. Cameron is the type of player who could theoretically boot a bunch of bags to get himself into the Coleman Medal race, but realistically he is not likely to spend enough time playing as a genuine inside 50 target to kick the number of goals needed to win this year’s Coleman Medal. 

Bet on Jeremy Cameron to win the Coleman Medal @ $31.00 with BoomBet 

Joe Daniher (Brisbane Lions)

Joe Daniher had the best year of his life as a Lion in 2023, booting 51 goals in the home and away season and ten more in the finals, playing a major role in his team advancing to the Grand Final. But the Lions’ start to 2024, as we all know, has been underwhelming to say the least, and at least from a goalkicking perspective so too has Daniher’s. He has actually played reasonably well and has been finding plenty of the footy, but the suspect goalkicking with which many have for so long associated him with – but which was not a concern last year – has returned. The result was 22 goals and 24 behinds through his first 12 games of the year; a similar number of shots to the guys right at the top of the Coleman Medal leaderboard but significantly less goals out of those. That is nowhere near the rate required to win the Coleman Medal these days, though he is at least getting himself opportunities and the prospect of a more productive second half of the year from a goalkicking perspective is very much a real one. But Daniher, while always capable of kicking bags, has not typically been one of the pre-eminent goalscorers in the league, in no small part due to the higher role that he plays. He will need to be if he is to get back into the race for this award.

Bet on Joe Daniher to win the Coleman Medal @ $41.00 with BoomBet 

Bayley Fritsch (Melbourne Demons)

Melbourne Demons AFL

Despite being one of the best teams in the league for a number of years now, the Demons have long lacked a genuine damaging key forward, but that has always been offset to some extent by the fact that they have Bayley Fritsch at their disposal. Perhaps the best medium-sized forward in the league, Fritsch is a great mark for his side, a dangerous lead-up target, a constant threat once the ball hits the ground and perhaps most importantly of all, an elite kick for goal. Those attributes saw him kick 59 goals in 2021 and 55 goals the next year, before last year he missed a number of games and finished with just 38. But he looks set to return to the kind of numbers he was putting up a couple of years ago in 2024, having booted 26 goals in his first 12 games of the year. A couple of uncharacteristic weeks followed with no scoring shots in Round 13 and then 1.4 the following week, but those kinds of performances are a rarity for the Dees forward and are in no small part a product of how his team is playing up the ground – the scoreless game came when they were pumped by 15 goals by the Dockers. If the Demons can find a way to arrest their poor run of form then Fritsch’s goalkicking should return, though that won’t likely be enough to get him right up there with Curnow and co, instead likely seeing him finish again with 50 or so goals. 

Bet on Bayley Fritsch to win the Coleman Medal @ $41.00 with PlayUp 

Nick Larkey (North Melbourne Kangaroos)

North Melbourne AFL

Nick Larkey didn’t take long to establish himself as a really dangerous forward in the AFL, booting 42 goals in just his third year in the league in a team which won just four games in 2021. After a similar 2022, he ascended into the game’s elite goalkickers last year, incredibly kicking 71 goals in a year which saw his team win just three games and in which they were uncompetitive in plenty of others. He makes the most of his opportunities as well as anybody in the league, as evidenced by the fact that he kicked just 24 behinds to go with those 71 goals last year, but while he has again been very accurate this year he hasn’t quite hit the scoreboard with the same regularity so far. It took until Round 14 against the Eagles for Larkey to kick more than three goals in a game – he booted five in the Roos’ first win of the year to take his season tally to 24 from 12 games. That put him 14 in arrears of Curnow and King, a lot to make up over the remainder of the season, particularly on a team that is not exactly going to be giving him a lot of opportunities. Larkey remains one of the Roos’ better talents and when one day he is finally playing for a competitive team he could easily be one of the best forwards in the game, but as for this year his Coleman Medal hopes appear very, very slim. 

Bet on Nick Larkey to win the Coleman Medal @ $61.00 with BoomBet

Our Prediction

While there are plenty of players that are capable of kicking 50 or so goals this year, there are a handful that will likely finish the year with closer to 70 or more, meaning the chances of a bulk of the above list are realistically pretty slim. Even among the favourites there are reasons to question most of their chances; McKay hasn’t kicked all that many goals for years and plays pretty high, while Hogan has never been a truly elite goalkicker aside from the first few weeks of this year. Ben King and Curnow have clearly separated themselves from the pack, and it’s very hard to go past Curnow given he is leading the award at the time of writing without having necessarily excelled. Though his odds might not appear all that enticing, there is a good chance that he will find a big bag at some point in the coming weeks and they will shorten even further if he does, so the better than even money odds on offer still look to be decent value at this point in the season. 

James is a sports writer from Melbourne, and has contributed to a variety of publications covering a range of sports including basketball, cricket, Australian Rules, golf and surfing to name a few. An avid fan of all of the above and more, James’ downtime is spent falling ungracefully off his surfboard, turning over footies and playing an out of tune guitar.

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