AFL 2024 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

As we enter the last few weeks of the home and away season, the race for the 2024 AFL Premiership remains a matter of who, if anyone, can catch the Swans. Though they did finally suffer a couple of tight losses in succession, they are still streets ahead on top of the ladder and are all but assured a home Qualifying Final, and potential path to the Grand Final without having to leave Sydney. But of course, being the best team in the home and away season means nothing if it isn’t replicated in the finals, and with plenty of good teams nipping at their heels the Premier is a long, long way from being decided. The likes of the Blues, Lions and Cats – to name just a few – are all very good teams on their day, and if they hit their straps at the right time of year could very easily end the year with the Premiership Cup held aloft. Below, we take a look at all of the favourites to win this year’s flag. 

Updated: 18 July, 2024

The Swans finally showed that they are beatable in Rounds 16 and 17, losing back-to-back games by first the Dockers and then, of all teams, the Saints. But with those losses coming by a combined total of three points and a win next week restoring a three-game plus percentage lead in top spot, they won’t be pressing the panic button just yet. They have been the best team in the league by a long way this season, thanks in no small part to a dominant and dynamic midfield which, scarily enough, has been absent two of its major players for much of the year. In Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, the Swans have three genuine superstars each capable of tearing a game to shreds in a different way.  
 
Meanwhile, Brodie Grundy, in his first season north of the border, has returned to something close to his best, while Callum Mills and Luke Parker have only just returned from lengthy layoffs. So good are the Swans that their best 22 could theoretically see Mills, Parker and Taylor Adams starting on the bench – a trio which would be a pretty decent starting midfield on its own. Their forward line is far from perfect, but they have enough up there that someone generally steps up each week, particularly given the volume and quality of entries that they are on the receiving end of. Barring a disaster the Swans are going to finish in top spot, giving them a home Qualifying Final, and a home Preliminary Final if they win that. Two years after they were pumped by the Cats in the 2022 Grand Final, the Swans are extremely well placed to go one better. 

• What brings them here? The Swans flew into Premiership calculations with a young team two years ago, but probably reached the Grand Final ahead of schedule. After an apparent regression last year, they have bounced back in emphatic fashion this season.
• What has changed? The Swans had a number of significant retirements, none more so than Lance Franklin, who was joined in hanging up the boots by Tom Hickey and Paddy McCartin. Dylan Stephens was traded to the Kangaroos, but the Swans picked up a couple of big names in Taylor Adams and Brodie Grundy, as well as James Jordon and Joel Hamling. 
• Injury update: Significantly aiding the Swans is a very healthy list. Justin McInerney will miss a couple of weeks with a knee injury he sustained against the Kangaroos, but that aside their best 22 is pretty much in full health.

Bet on the Swans to win the AFL Premiership @ $3.25 with PlayUp 

Following five wins in a row through late May and June, the Blues positioned themselves as seemingly the best team in the league outside of Sydney and a very good chance to lock up second spot, and with it a home Qualifying Final. Of course, they subsequently went on to lose their next two games and put themselves right back in the pack. With so little separating so many teams they could still theoretically miss the finals, but based on how they have played throughout the course of the year that seems exceedingly unlikely and a top four finish is much more probable. 
 
As they have been for a long time, the Blues’ team is centred around a really strong top seven or eight players. Their key forward pairing of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay is as dangerous as any in the league, their midfield is very ably led by Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, while Jacob Weitering is perhaps the most important of all, heading their backline. The main concern around the Blues is the quality of their bottom few players, and that has been the case for many years. But it’s a common misconception that Premiership teams are perfect – they never are, and every single one of them has plenty of role players who are a long way from superstardom. After making their way through to the Preliminary Finals last year from outside the top four, they have a great opportunity to earn the double chance in 2024, and led by a very capable top-end, are good enough to go a step or two further than they did last season. 

• What brings them here? It has been a long, slow climb up the ladder for the Blues, but they are finally capitalising on their undeniable talent and are well-placed to have a legitimate crack at a flag. 
• What has changed? Ed Curnow and Lachie Plowman both retired, while Paddy Dow was traded to the Saints and Zac Fisher to the Kangaroos. Elijah Hollands was a good pick up in a trade with the Suns, while Orazio Fantasia was picked up as a free agent.
• Injury update: Both Sam Docherty and Jack Silvagni are major outs for the rest of the season, particularly Docherty, with ACL injuries, while Zac Williams is out indefinitely with a hamstring. 

Bet on the Blues to win the AFL Premiership @ $4.50 with PlayUp

Last year’s Grand Finalists took a little while to get going in 2024, but they are hitting their straps just when they need to. At 2-5 seven weeks into the season things were beginning to look a little dire, over the next ten weeks they lost just a solitary game to catapult themselves from the bottom six into the top four within that span. With four of their best 22 having suffered ACL injuries this season they are not at full capacity, but outside of that group they are relatively healthy and are proving that they still have more than enough talent at their disposal to once again challenge for a Premiership. 
 
At the time of writing, the Lions have won six games in a row, scored the third most points in the league behind only the Swans and the Blues, and have a better percentage by a fairly long way than every team except for Sydney. They do have a draw to their name so it won’t necessarily be relevant, though so too do a couple of teams around them, and even if that percentage doesn’t prove to have any tangible benefits it still points to the fact that the Lions are right among the best teams in the league. Led by Lachie Neale, who is relatively quietly putting together a better season than certainly his second Brownlow Medal year, the Lions are humming along nicely and have put themselves in a great position to finish in the top four and potentially even the top two. If they can do that, they could easily lay claim to being the biggest threat to Sydney’s Premiership chances.

• What brings them here? The Lions have been in or around the top four for many years, and last year finally went a step further than they had previously by making the Grand Final. They are every chance of repeating that effort this year.  
• What has changed? Jack Gunston and Tom Fullarton were traded and Jack Gunston retired, while their ins included Tom Doedee from Adelaide and Brandon Ryan from Hawthorn.
• Injury update: As mentioned, the Lions have four players out for the year with ACLs in Keidean Coleman, Tom Doedee, Darcy Gardiner and Lincoln McCarthy, while Jack Payne isn’t due back till very late in the home and away season with a foot injury. Charlie Cameron has been suspended for another dangerous tackle until Round 22.

Bet on the Lions to win the AFL Premiership @ $8.00 with PlayUp

Like it has been for many teams, 2024 has been an up and down season for the Cats. They started it like a house on fire, once again belying the critics claiming that they were past it. But it didn’t last. After winning their first seven games of the season, they finally lost to the Demons, and that kickstarted a run in which they won just one of their next seven. Sure enough, with their season on the ropes, they suddenly switched a flick back on, pumping the Bombers, then the Hawks, then beating the Magpies solidly in a Friday night arm wrestle to jump back inside the top four. It’s been a hard season to make sense of, but their best is clearly very good. 
 
This team is not reliant on its older heads like it once was. Tom Hawkins is out for an extended period of time and they have been winning regardless, Patrick Dangerfield has been in and out of the team, Cam Guthrie has been absent virtually all year, and the list goes on. But they have a solid younger brigade coming through, a couple of experienced stalwarts still playing at a very high level, and importantly, have the Cats culture which seems to make them competitive regardless of who is on the park. Having endured so many swings this year it’s still hard to know where to from here for the Cats, but they are playing at a level good enough to beat anyone in the league at the time of writing, and if they can maintain that they will put themselves in a great position to finish top four and potentially go all the way.

• What brings them here? The Cats have long seemed to be immune to the regression which invariably follows a period at the top for AFL teams, and after a rare absence from September last year they appear set to return to the finals in 2024.
• What has changed? The Cats lost Norm Smith Medalist Isaac Smith to retirement while Jonathan Ceglar also hung up the boots, and Esava Ratugolea was traded to the Power. They didn’t acquire any major names, with their ins all via the drafts. 
• Injury update: Back up ruckman Toby Conway will be unavailable for the rest of the season due to a foot injury. Tom Hawkins is expected to be back right on the eve of the finals from his own foot injury, while Cam Guthrie is a little ahead of that schedule with his Achilles problem.

Bet on the Cats to win the AFL Premiership @ $8.50 with BoomBet

Yet another team whose season has seen wildly different periods of form, the Giants’ year has been particularly similar to the Cats. They were Premiership favourites within a few weeks of the season courtesy of five consecutive wins to start the year, but once they started losing things began to unravel. After bouncing back from their first loss with a big win over the Lions, the AFL’s newest team would go on to lose six of their next eight games to fall out of the top eight and put their finals hopes well and truly in jeopardy. There was no apparent reason for the drop-off – no bad run with injuries and certainly not a lack of talent – and sure enough, after conceding eight goals in the first quarter against the Blues in Round 17 and seemingly en route to another loss, they suddenly seemed to remember that they’re a pretty damn good team and stormed back to secure one of their best wins of the year. 
 
The inability to consistently play that way is certainly a concern and would frustrate the hell out of coach Adam Kingsley, and given that they haven’t played great footy for a large part of the past three months it is still very possible that they will not play finals. On the flip side of the coin, however, they have shown what they are capable of when everything comes together. They have plenty of experienced talent in their ranks, players who have been their since the start like Toby Greene and Lachie Whitfield, as well as a number of capable youngsters and an elite backline headlined by the injured Sam Taylor. Once he returns the Giants will be a lot better side, and if they can ensure that they find their way into September – and ideally earn a double chance, which is still a very real possibility – they will be a dangerous team for anyone to play against. 

• What brings them here? The Giants’ mid-season turnaround last year saw them advance through to a Preliminary Final, and they are very capable of repeating that this year.
• What has changed? Not too much changed for the Giants in the offseason. Phil Davis and Daniel Lloyd both retired while Matt Flynn went to the Eagles as a free agent. Their inclusions were all draft picks.
• Injury update: Sam Taylor is expected to be back from his nasty ruptured testicle injury at the beginning of August, and Josh Kelly a week or two after that. Toby Bedford will miss until Round 22 through suspension, Josh Fahey will miss at least the rest of the home and away season with a foot injury, while Stephen Coniglio picked up a shoulder injury but shouldn’t miss too much time.

Bet on the Giants to win the AFL Premiership @ $10.00 with PlayUp 

The Dockers have not received a whole lot of hype this season, but they haven’t done all that much wrong throughout the course of the year to date. Seventeen games into the season they had really only put in two poor performances – a loss to the Eagles, and a thumping at the hands of the Bulldogs. That aside all their losses have been close and to decent teams, the exception being a heavy loss to the Swans that came on the back of some wildly erratic goalkicking and after a very difficult week off-field for the club. They have also put in some fantastic performances, including a 92-point win over the Demons and a thrilling one-point defeat of the Swans up in Sydney.  
 
As it has been ever since Justin Longmuir took over as head coach, defence has been this team’s strength, and at the time of writing they have conceded less points than every other team in the league. Often in the past that has been somewhat countered by an inability to do much damage going the other way, but while they haven’t exactly been an elite team offensively, they have been far from a disaster in that regard. Their ball movement can at times be stunted, but their forward line is beginning to show signs of potency, with the rapid development of Josh Treacy creating a potentially dangerous group of key forwards with Jye Amiss, whichever of Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy is not rucking, and a couple of others. They certainly don’t get the hype as a potential contender like all of the above teams, but the Dockers cannot be taken lightly. They showed what they can do when they are on when they beat the Swans in Sydney, and if they can find a way to hang onto a spot in the top four they could be a surprise contender. 

• What brings them here?  Many people forget how good the Dockers were for an extended period in 2022, and though they didn’t back that up last year, that is beginning to look like an anomaly based on what they have dished up so far in 2024.
• What has changed? Fremantle traded small forward Lachie Schultz, sparkplug Liam Henry and forgotten defender Joel Hamling, while Jeremy Sharp came across from the Gold Coast.
• Injury update: Josh Corbett is unavailable all season, but that aside the Dockers are looking pretty healthy. Sean Darcy has had multiple ailments throughout the year and Alex Pearce missed an extended period with a broken arm, but both are pretty close to ready to go.

Bet on the Dockers to win the AFL Premiership @ $18.00 with GetSetBet 

Are the Bulldogs the most frustrating team in the league to follow? They must be close. While many of the aforementioned teams have had up and down seasons, they have at least tended to string together weeks of good or bad form. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are as capable of anyone of fluctuating from week to week. After an indifferent first couple of months of the season, they actually had a pretty solid month of June, winning three of four with the solitary loss a close one to the Swans. In the next five weeks, in order, they lost by seven goals to the Lions, pumped the Dockers by 67 points, beat the Roos, lost by eight goals to the Power, and then beat the Blues. That is an erratic run of form to say the least. 
 
There is certainly plenty to like about the Bulldogs, as there has been for years. A midfield boasting Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Adam Treloar is always going to be dangerous, and their group of key forwards which was so dysfunctional for so long appears to be sorting itself out, with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton forming a potentially very formidable trio. Their backline is not exactly a strength, and that along with their midfield’s defensive struggles is probably a primary cause for the rogue bad performances that they periodically throw in. But for a team a little way down the ladder, having a big gap between their best and their worst is not always a bad thing when it comes to Premiership calculations – after all, at least we know what they are capable of when they are on. Whether they can do that consistently enough is another question entirely, and a Premiership from where they currently are seems pretty unlikely. But this team has made late season runs a couple of times under Luke Beveridge – could they do it again in 2024? 

• What brings them here? The Doggies have enough talent to be playing finals reasonably consistently, though for the past couple of years they have been up and down like a yoyo. 
• What has changed? Josh Bruce retired and Jordon Sweet was traded to the Power, while coming in was James Harmes from Melbourne, Nick Coffield from the Saints and impressive number six draft pick Ryley Sanders.
• Injury update: Bailey Smith has been absent all year and will remain that way with an ACL injury, while Ryan Gardner will be out till the eve of the finals with a wrist injury. Jason Johannisen is due back a couple of weeks prior to that, and Liam Jones probably around early August. 

Bet on the Bulldogs to win the AFL Premiership @ $26.00 with PlayUp

Hopefully you didn’t take the advice of this column a few weeks ago when I pegged Collingwood as the best value team in the Premiership race, because since then their odds have absolutely ballooned out. After just creeping over the line against North Melbourne in Round 15, they lost three on the trot first to the Suns, then the Bombers and finally the Cats to fall outside the top eight. The reigning Premiers are still clearly good enough to play finals and beyond if they’re at their best, but even getting to September is starting to look a little tricky. Needing to win a lot more than they lose on the run home, they end their season with games against the Blues, Swans, Lions and Demons in the past four weeks, which is about as tough a stretch as anyone could ask for. 
 
During the aforementioned three-game losing streak they certainly were not a disaster, losing each of those games in relatively close fashion, but they will need to play better than that if they’re to win multiple – if any – of that four-game stretch at the end of the season. It’s beginning to look more likely than not that the Magpies will miss the finals, which clearly, does not bode particularly well for their Premiership chances. Perhaps the only positive way to look at their chances is that, if they do get to September, they will need to have beaten a number of Premiership favourites on the way, so should they get there they will have almost certainly been playing a hell of a lot better than they have been of late. If the Magpies are playing finals they won’t be a team that anyone wants to play which probably does make them a decent smoky, but there is every chance that they won’t even make it back into the top eight.

• What brings them here? The Magpies, of course, won the flag last year after making a Prelim the year prior, though 2024 has not gone exactly to plan and they are now up against it to play finals.
• What has changed? Collingwood traded both Taylor Adams and Jack Ginnivan at the end of last year, though the acquisition of Lachie Schultz’ should help to offset the loss of the latter of them.
• Injury update: Brody Mihocek will be a notable absentee for the rest of the season after sustaining a pectoral injury. Him aside there are lots of best 22 players who have endured injuries, though they should be getting plenty back in late July/early August, including Mason Cox, Jeremy Howe, Beau McReery, Lachie Schultz and potentially Tom Mitchell.

Bet on the Magpies to win the AFL Premiership @ $26.00 with BoomBet

There are plenty of teams that can win the 2024 AFL Grand Final, but the Swans are clearly the head of the pack at the moment. Throughout the course of the year that has seen them probably a little too short to back with such a long way to go, but with finals nearing and their form holding up – notwithstanding a couple of very close losses that won’t bother them too much – the odds are starting to look a little more tempting. They haven’t really shortened for some team, and as clearly the best team in the league and with a very clear path to the Grand Final without having to leave the SCG staring them in the face, they are starting to look like pretty decent value at in excess of $3 with some betting sites.