The 2024 AFL season has already thrown up plenty of surprises, not least the poor starts for both of last year’s Grand Finalists, and as expected there is a large number of teams that will be vying for the same spots in the top eight come season’s end. Courtesy of strong starts to the season there are a few teams that are already at very short odds to make it through to September, but the logjam of teams expected to be fighting for spots in the lower half of the eight means that there is plenty of value to be found in the top eight betting odds. On this page, we’ll take a look at some of the best value teams to make it through to the 2024 AFL Finals.
AFL 2024 Top 8 Betting Preview
Port Adelaide Power
The Power aren’t at long odds to make the top 8, but they still look like decent value given their strong start to the season and the fact that they will likely win the vast majority of their home games. They’ve finished in the top four in three of the past four seasons and will harbour ambitions of repeating that this season, but for the sake of this market all we need is for them to get to the 12 of 13 wins they will need to play finals. In their first six weeks they racked up four of them, their only losses coming in a tight game against the Demons and a disappointing performance against the Magpies. They’ve been a good team for a number of years and with the quality of their young midfield, could argue that they are getting better. Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis has the makings of the best midfield trio in the league for many years to come, and bolstered by the likes of Willem Drew and Ollie Wines, it’s already right up there. The Power are a talented side that has been in the Premiership conversation for a number of years, even if they have consistently fallen short in September, and it’s really difficult to imagine them failing to play finals footy this year. Even at short odds, they are decent value to get there.
- What brings them here? The Power have been up the top of the ladder for three of the past four years, and with the continued growth of their dynamic midfield trio and a couple of savvy off-season acquisitions, they look set for another high finish.
- What has changed? The Power brought in a couple of players in positions of need, including Esava Ratugolea from the Cats and the Brandon Zerk-Thatcher from the Bombers down back, and Ivan Soldo from the Tigers in the ruck. Xavier Duursma was a significant loss, with the talented youngster heading to the Bombers.
- Injury update: Young forward Ollie Lord is still a few weeks ago as he continues to rehab from a leg injury, while Travis Boak and Jason Horne-Francis have both endured injuries that look relatively short-term at the time of writing.
Collingwood Magpies
It doesn’t take long for the AFL world to jump off a team, and the Magpies (as well as the Lions) have been prime examples of that this season. In part that’s due to the depth of quality in the competition; get off to a slow start to the year or regress ever so slightly, and there are a host of good teams ready to take up your spot in the top eight. But the fact remains that the Magpies are the reigning Premiers. Their start to the season was far from ideal with three consecutive losses, but as we could all have predicted they subsequently turned that around, notching up three wins in a row including one against the Lions and one against the Power. Premiership hangovers are certainly not unheard of and we only need to look back to last year to see the last time a reigning Premier failed to make the finals in the year that followed their triumph, but that’s highly unlikely to be the case with the Magpies. Boasting much the same team as they did last year, they have already shown that they are still up there with the best teams in the league on their day during their wins against the Lions and the Power. In terms of the betting markets, their slow start to the year has helped to add a bit of value to their chances of making the eight, and for a team that should certainly be playing finals and will more than likely be in the top four mix come season’s end, $1.50 with some betting sites looks like pretty decent value.
- What brings them here? Ever since Craig McRae took over in 2022 the Magpies have been right up there, finishing top four each of the past two years and winning it all last year. Finals should be no problem for them this season.
- What has changed? The Magpies lost a couple of players to trade in the off-season, with Taylor Adams heading to Sydney and Jack Ginnivan to the Hawks. Lachie Schultz came across from the Dockers to offset the latter of those departures.
- Injury update: The Magpies are looking pretty good on the injury front in terms of best 22 players. Dan McStay will be out until, at the very least, late in the season – if he can play at all this year – after suffering an ACL very late last year. Meanwhile, Nathan Kreuger is due back in early May from a calf injury.
Bet on the Magpies to make the top eight @ $1.50 with PlayUp
Brisbane Lions
Like the Magpies, the Lions endured a bad start to 2024 after going agonisingly close to winning last year’s flag, but that has just served to boost their odds to make the finals to the point where they now look very juicy. Brisbane won just two of their first six games, a couple of those losses coming in disappointing fashion, but there is no denying that they were handed a tough draw; three of those losses were against the Blues, Magpies and Cats, while they also played the Demons in Melbourne – and won that in a really impressive display. Their draw begins to open up a lot more thereafter, and though they will be keen to play a lot better than they have been to start the season, the signs have been there often enough that things are starting to turn around. Notably, the Gabba hasn’t been nearly the fortress that it was last year when they didn’t lose a game there, with losses in three of their first four games on home soil in 2024. But don’t expect that trend to continue. The Lions are still a really good team and, despite having been towards the top of the ladder for many years, are still relatively young and have plenty of room for growth. They have won at least 14 games and made the finals in five consecutive years, and despite a bad start should be looking to win that number again this year. At close to even money odds, they look like one of the best value teams to play finals in 2024.
- What brings them here? The Lions have been here for a long time, averaging more than 15 wins per game over the past five seasons and finishing top four on four of those occasions.
- What has changed? Not all that much. Daniel Rich has retired and Jack Gunston was traded back to the Hawks, but they weren’t getting a game anyway. Meanwhile, Tom Doedee came across from the Crows – though unfortunately recently suffered a partial retear of his ACL – and Brandon Ryan was traded to them from the Hawks.
- Injury update: As mentioned, Doedee has what is potentially a season-ending injury, while Keidean Coleman also suffered an ACL tear in Round 0 and won’t play again this year. Will Aschroft continues to recover from another ACL injury that he suffered last year and should be aiming for a return later in the year, while Zac Bailey will be out until late May/early June with an ankle injury. Oscar McInerney was concussed in Round 6, while Connor McKenna is pretty much due back from a hamstring at the time of writing.
Western Bulldogs
The Doggies must be such a frustrating team to support. For a long time they have struggled with consistency, and the early signs in 2024 have been that there will be no change to that this season. They have plenty of talent on the park, in particular in the midfield, but they also have a top-heavy forward line and a lack of key positions backs, while the apparent unwillingness of that talented midfield to defend consistently puts them at risk of conceding big runs of goals. At their best this season they have looked great – a ten goal win over the Saints in Round 6 was a prime example – but the week before that they were beaten comprehensively by the Bombers, while in their opening game they were pumped by the Demons. Still, their capability when they are at their best means that they remain a dangerous team with a pretty high ceiling, and at well over even money look like a decent bet to make the finals. Six weeks into the season they had split their games at three wins and three losses, but they are not a typical mid-tier team. The Bulldogs have a big gap between their floor and their ceiling, and while they are constantly a chance of losing to teams they should be pummelling, they can also beat some of the very best on their day. With that high ceiling, the prospect of them flicking a switch and performing a lot better than many expect is a very real one, and they are well and truly in the hunt for the finals as a result.
- What brings them here? The Bulldogs have been either in or around the top eight for some time now, and this year look set to once again be on the precipice of a finals spot.
- What has changed? Josh Bruce retired and Jordon Sweet was traded to the Power in the off-season, while a number of former best 22 players were delisted including Hayden Crozier, Mitch Hannan and Toby McLean. Lachie Bramble came across from the Hawks and Nick Coffield from the Saints, while Ryley Sanders has become an immediate fixture in the best 22 after being selected with pick 6 in the draft.
- Injury update: Coffield is unfortunately set to be on the injury list for at least a couple more months following a shoulder injury, while Bailey Smith will miss the whole year after doing his ACL in the pre-season. Tom Liberatore suffered a concussion in Round 6.
Bet on the Bulldogs to make the top eight @ $2.30 with PlayUp
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers might have been a little underrated coming into this season, with the footy world seeming to forget that, despite a disappointing 2023, they won 15 games the year prior. Admittedly they are far from perfect but they are one of the best teams from a defensive standpoint in the league, and their start to the year suggested that they were more than capable of bouncing back and playing finals again this season. They won their first three games of the year, including an impressive win over the Lions, but unfortunately for them a really frustrating three-week period followed. They really should have been 5-0, but two consecutive games in which they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against first the Blues and then the Power sent them to 3-2, before a really disappointing loss to the seemingly improving Eagles followed the week after. That put their record at 3-3, but they could easily feel that they deserve to be much better placed than that. The Dockers have long had trouble scoring and that doesn’t appear to be any different this year, and their lack of offensive panache may well prove to be what stops them from taking the next step in their development. But equally, they are able to stem the offensive flow of even the best teams in the league. Over in Perth and playing a relatively unattractive game style they are never going to be the most talked about team in the AFL, but they are more than capable of playing finals and at the time of writing, are at good odds to do so.
- What brings them here? The Dockers gradually improved each year under coach Justin Longmuir until they hit a road block last year, but they’re capable of bouncing back and putting themselves in the finals mix.
- What has changed? The Dockers did lose a number of best 22 players last year, with Lachie Schultz heading to the Magpies and Liam Henry to the Saints, though they did also pick up Jeremy Sharp from the Gold Coast.
- Injury update: The Dockers unfortunately have a really long injury list, though a lot of those are short-termers. Brennan Cox is one exception – he’ll be out for about two or three more months – while Josh Corbett is out all year with a hip injury. Elsewhere, each of Corey Wagner, Karl Worner, Sam Switkowski and Michael Frederick have or have had injuries, but none are expected to be out for too much longer.
Bet on the Bulldogs to make the top eight @ $2.30 with PlayUp
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns have been in search for their first finals appearance for over a decade, and many times they have looked right in the hunt to finally break the hoodoo only to fall just short. This year, under three-time Premiership coach Damian Hardwick for the first time, they appear well-placed to give it their best crack yet – though it feels like we have said that every season for five years. This is now a relatively battle-hardened squad which, while still fairly young, has a good amount of experience at its disposal, and that’s evident in the fact that winning the contested footy is a clear strength of this team. They started off the season a little erratically, with a couple of good wins to start followed by a flogging against the Dogs, another couple of solid performances and then another flogging against the Swans. Those results have looked very much like those of a mid-tier team, which they have been for years without being quite able to take that next step into the finals. But Hardwick could be an X-Factor. A coach alone can’t entirely change a team’s fortunes, but Hardwick knows better than any coach they have had in the past what needs to happen to take this team to the next level. It feels inevitable that he they will make their inaugural finals appearance with him at the helm – the only question is whether they will have to wait beyond this year.
- What brings them here? The Suns have been trying valiantly to make their inaugural finals appearance for years and have established themselves as a solid if not unspectacular team, but with Dimma in charge they could perhaps finally be ready to take that step.
- What has changed? Hardwick aside, the Suns traded out Mabior Chol, Chris Burgess and Elijah Hollands, while all of their acquisitions were through the draft.
- Injury update: Lachie Weller will be out until late in the year as he continues to recover from an ACL injury, while Malcolm Rosas won’t be back until likely the end of June from a bad hamstring injury.
Essendon Bombers
It’s now been 20 long years since the Bombers last won a final, and they haven’t won more than 12 games in over a decade, either. A couple of those seasons have still resulted in finals appearances, however, and this year they will be hoping to get back to September once again. In their first season under Brad Scott in 2023, the Bombers won 11 games and finished in 11th place – a significant improvement on the seven years the season prior. To get back to the finals they will need to improve once again, and four wins in their first six games was a pretty good way to do just that. The Bombers are still no world beaters, and a couple of those wins were results which could very easily have gone the other way, but win them they did and they have now put themselves in a decent position to make a charge for the finals after a solid early start. This is still a team with plenty of holes in it and the lack of X-Factor which has been so prevalent for so long – Jake Stringer not withstanding – remains an issue, particularly in the midfield. But a couple of really solid pick-ups in the off-season, including Xavier Duursma from Port Adelaide, Jade Gresham from the Saints, and Todd Goldstein and Ben McKay from the Roos, have made this team better than it was last year. It remains to be seen if this Bombers team has a ceiling of any particular note, but they look like they will at least be in the mix to play finals in 2024.
- What brings them here? The Bombers haven’t really bottomed out for some time and have won either 11 or 12 games in five of the past seven seasons, so they have long been in the finals mix.
- What has changed? As mentioned, the Bombers had a lot of ins over the off-season, including Xavier Duursma, Jade Gresham, Todd Goldstein and Ben McKay. Meanwhile, Massimo D’Ambrosio was traded to the Hawks and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher shipped off to the Power.
- Injury update: Jordan Ridley is a notable name on the Bombers’ injury list, due to be out until late in May with a quad injury. Archie Perkins and Jye Menzie should both be back around mid-May from their injuries, and Will Setterfield a week earlier from a knee injury.
Bet on the Bombers to make the top eight @ $3.00 with PlayUp
Adelaide Crows
The Crows improved drastically last year and in a parallel universe could easily have played finals, with a number of very close losses and a highly controversial defeat in Round 23 seeing them miss out by just a game. With a lot of talented young players the expectation was that they would come on further this year, but as we so often forget, progress is not always linear. They came out of the gates really slowly, losing their first four games of the season, and appeared destined to lose a fifth before a stirring comeback against the Blues saw them snare their first win of the season by just two points. But rather than spur them on, they came out in a game they were expected to win against the Bombers in Adelaide and were comprehensively outplayed. They lost that game by just three points in the end, but realistically the scoreboard flattered them, and regardless the result was that it took their record to 1-5. Now, they are at long odds to make the eight in a year in which that was the expectation, but the season is still young and based on what this team showed last year, they can’t be ruled out just yet. They’ve got a real mixed bag of opponents over the May and early June period, with a bunch of games they really should be winning and a bunch against Premiership contenders, and they’ll need to start winning a few of the latter of those games if they’re to put themselves back into finals contention. But despite their poor start, with the season only six games old they are still just a couple of games out of the top eight. At really long odds, they are a sneaky chance to turn things around and play finals for the first time since their 2017 Grand Final loss this year.
- What brings them here? The Crows have gradually improved under coach Matthew Nicks over the past few years, and last year took a big step forward only to just miss out on a return to the eight.
- What has changed? The Crows didn’t do all that much in the offseason. Tom Doedee was a major out as he headed to Brisbane, while Shane McAdam also headed to Melbourne via trade. Chris Burgess was the only player they traded in, the key forward coming over from the Suns.
- Injury update: The Crows have a few long-term injuries to players who would normally be in their best 22. Wayne Milera has done an ACL and won’t play again this season, while Riley Thilthorpe isn’t due back until late in the year as he recovers from his own knee injury. Nick Murray isn’t due back until probably June from another knee injury, while Rory Sloane’s return remains unclear after suffering a detached retina. Patrick Parnell is also out until 2025 with a shoulder injury, while Jordan Butts and Lachlan Murphy are due back a little sooner – likely in the early parts of May.
