AFL 2024 Top 8 Betting Preview - Odds & Expert Predictions

The AFL Finals are just a few weeks away, but still there are 13 teams who could feasibly make their way into September. Of course, 13 does not fit into 8 and a number of decent teams are going to miss out; which teams that is, however, still very much remains to be seen. The Swans are safe and have been for a long time while a couple of other teams are at very short odds to make it – too short to bother backing – but a little further down the pecking order there is some hot competition for spots and some far more tantalising odds. Below, we take a look at some of the best value teams to make the top eight in an incredibly close season. 

Early in the season, the Giants didn’t look likely to need to scratch and claw their way into the top eight. They won their first five games and looked every bit a Premiership contender, but the wheels quickly fell off once that winning streak came to an end, and an extended run of indifferent form saw them tumble all the way out of the top eight. When they conceded eight first quarter goals to the Blues in Round 17 they looked destined for yet another loss, but a switch appeared to be flicked at quarter time in their collective consciousness. They went on to storm back and win that game, did what they needed to against the Tigers the next week and then beat the Suns comfortably the week after, making it three on the trot and re-establishing their spot inside the top eight in the process. At their best the Giants are clearly a finals team; the concern around them is how long they were playing at well below that best. Their run home is far from easy, with virtually every team they play also vying for a spot in the top eight, and with proverbial eight-point game after eight-point game, each and every game for them is absolutely pivotal. With a little buffer inside the top eight at the time of writing it’s easy to see why they are at relatively short odds to play finals, but given their draw, there are certainly better value finals contenders out there. 

• What brings them here? After a bad couple of months which followed their strong start to the season, the Giants appear to have recaptured their groove just in the nick of time but remain no certainty to play finals.  
• What has changed? The Dockers did lose a number of best 22 players last year, with Lachie Schultz heading to the Magpies and Liam Henry to the Saints, though they did also pick up Jeremy Sharp from the Gold Coast.
• Injury update: Isaac Cumming has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury, while youngster Josh Fahey probably won’t play again this year either. Josh Kelly is due back just on the eve of the finals from a calf injury.

Bet on the Giants to make the top eight @ $1.30 with PlayUp

With each passing week, the Bulldogs are looming as the joker in the pack of teams hunting down the likes of the Swans and the Blues. The way their season pans out is anyone’s guess; it is absolutely not outside the realms of possibility that they finish top four and even if they just squeeze into the eight they will be dangerous in September, but missing the finals is still very much on the radar too. As is typically the case with them, the gap between the Dogs’ best and the Dogs’ worst has been monumental, but those off games have been increasingly fewer and further between as the season has worn on. Following a disappointing loss against the Hawks a few months ago – which has proven, in hindsight, to be a lot less disappointing than it looked at the time – they went on to win seven of their next ten games. One of those losses was a very respectable one to the Swans, the other two – to the Lions and the Power – were not so. Those kinds of performances make it hard to trust the Bulldogs, but two bad games in ten weeks is not exactly a disaster and in that patch they have also pumped the Giants, Dockers and Cats, beat the Blues, and knocked off the Magpies. That patch of games took their record to 10-8 and still had them sitting just outside the top eight, but with the third best percentage in the league they will most likely finish ahead of any teams they happen to finish on the same number of wins as. They have a mixed bag of teams on the run home, but based on how they have been playing for an extended period of time they should be disappointed if they fail to win enough games to make their way into the top eight come season’s end. 

• What brings them here? The Dogs had a bit of a slow start to the season which put them behind the eight ball to make the finals, but they have been really strong for a while now to put themselves right in the mix.
• What has changed? Josh Bruce retired and Jordon Sweet was traded to the Power, while coming in was James Harmes from Melbourne, Nick Coffield from the Saints and impressive number six draft pick Ryley Sanders.
• Injury update: There has been no suggestion that Bailey Smith will return ahead of schedule from his ACL injury and play again this year for the Dogs, while Jason Johannisen won’t play until right around finals time – if they get there. Ryan Gardner is on a similar timeline while James Harmes should be available by about Round 22.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the top eight @ $1.60 with PlayUp

It’s difficult to know what to make of the Power, but basically they look like – as expected – a team which is decent enough on their day but not really good enough to consistently match it with the best teams in the league. There is plenty to like about this side, not least their incredibly talented midfield led by Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis and with the likes of Ollie Wines and Willem Drew backing them up, but they haven’t consistently set the world on fire this year and they and coach Ken Hinkley have come under plenty of fire as a result. Perhaps that is in part unfair, and if they finish the season with a flourish they could still very easily finish top four and put paid to a lot of that criticism. They do, however, have a very difficult run home, their only game against a non-finals contender being in the Showdown against the Crows – which as we well know, will be anyone’s game. The Power are right in the middle of the logjam of teams fighting for finals spots, and if they win the games they are expected to and lose the others then they will probably finish on 13 wins. Most years, that would be enough to play finals – this year, it may or not may not, and a percentage lower than most teams around them certainly won’t help them. At even money they are decent value to make the finals, but they are a long way from locked in to September action, and if they miss out the jungle drums will be beating. 

• What brings them here? The Power have been a top four side in three of the past four seasons, and though they are not too far off this year, the gap between the top four and the teams just outside the eight is very small. 
• What has changed? As mentioned, the Power brought in Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher in the offseason, while Ivan Soldo has stepped in as their number one ruck early in the year after coming across from Richmond. Tom Jonas and Scott Lycett both retired at the end of 2023, while Xavier Duursma was a big loss as he headed to Essendon in a trade.
• Injury update: Sam Powell-Pepper has long been ruled out for the season with an ACL injury, and Jeremy Finlayson recently joined him with a spleen injury. Ivan Soldo will be out until about Round 23.

Bet on the Power to make the top eight @ $2.00 with PlayUp

It’s hard to believe that the Hawks have not cemented themselves in the top eight given that they have been the in-form side in the competition for around three months, but that’s what happens when you lose your first five games of the season. They looked nowhere near it during those initial stages, but things could hardly have turned around more drastically after they were pumped by the Swans to take their record to 1-6. They would go on to win eight of their next ten games, one of those losses coming in extraordinary fashion by just a point to the Power, and with wins in the mix coming against the Bulldogs, Giants, Lions, and perhaps most impressively, the Magpies in a cut-throat Saturday afternoon affair at the MCG which they won by 66 points. This young, exciting, kind of annoying but kind of endearing team is polarising fans, but love them or hate them, they are riding a wave of momentum which could easily see them jump into the top eight on the eve of the finals. They haven’t been there all year and a poor percentage relative to the teams around them might make it tough, but with the Kangaroos and the Tigers to come in the last couple of rounds of the season, if they can snatch another win before then they will be right in the mix – and having gone 8-2 over the past three months, that seems like a very reasonable prospect. 

• What brings them here? The Hawks didn’t look like they had a chance of being anywhere near September action early in the year, but they have turned a monumental corner and are now right in the mix.
• What has changed? The Hawks traded Jacob Koschitzke to the Tigers, Tyler Brockman to the Eagles and Brandon Ryan to the Lions. Massimo D’Ambrosio has been a great pick-up after coming across from the Bombers, while they also secured Jack Gunston, Jack Ginnivan and Mabior Chol in trades.
• Injury update: Mitch Lewis is unfortunately out for the season with a recent ACL injury, joining James Blanck. Chad Wingard has suffered a calf injury following his return from an Achilles which will render him unavailable until about Round 22.

Bet on the Hawks to make the top eight @ $2.10 with BoomBet

Though the Bombers have spent a large portion of this season in the top four, it felt inevitable that they were going to slide at some point. Certainly they have shown some signs of improvement, led in no small part by captain Zach Merrett, but they weren’t exactly winning a host of games against contenders and once their fixture stiffened up, the wins have begun to dry up with it. Five losses in seven weeks, which began when the Suns beat them by 11 points, saw them tumble from the top four to the very edge of the top eight, with a heartbreaking two-point loss to the Crows in Round 20 a result which will potentially come back to bite them. They have the worst percentage of all the teams fighting for top eight spots, and in their last month of footy have to play the Dockers, Swans and Lions – all potentially top four teams. All of a sudden they look to be right up against it to play finals, and the slightly better than even money odds that are on offer for them to make it do not look all that enticing. It’s still far from a fait accompli that they miss out – at the time of writing they are sitting in the top eight, after all – but given their poor form and a relatively difficult draw, it seems more likely than not that they will tumble out. 

• What brings them here? The Bombers would have been at pretty short odds to make the finals a couple of months ago, but a look at their fixture suggested they were always likely to at least fall down the ladder a little.
• What has changed? The Bombers traded in Xavier Duursma, Todd Goldstein, Jade Gresham and Ben McKay, while they also picked up the impressive Nate Caddy with pick 10 in the draft. Massimo D’Ambrosio, meanwhile, was traded to the Hawks and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher to the Power, while Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti retired again. 
• Injury update: Darcy Parish has been a major absentee from the Bombers’ midfield for a couple of months but returns for the last few games of the home and away season. Matt Guelfi is due to be available just before finals from a hamstring injury.

Bet on the Bombers to make the top eight @ $2.15 with PlayUp

Oh how the mighty have fallen. A top four team for the past three years and the 2021 Premiers, the Demons’ season has not gone to plan. For years their position as a contender has been based around a very robust defence led by Steven May and Jake Lever, and an elite midfield punctuated by Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. Oliver is a shadow of his former self and Petracca is out for the season, and with Angus Brayshaw also having retired over the off-season they are now a lot thinner than they once were – and it has shown. They had a strong start to the season, ending the first two months at 6-2, but the wheels began to fall off when they lost by a point to the Blues. That was the first of five losses in a seven-week period – one of those wins coming by just three points against the Roos, and the losses including a 92-point thrashing at the hands of the Dockers, a 38-point loss to the Pies and a 35-point loss to the Eagles. A comfortable win in their second game over West Coast followed by a 17-point defeat of the Bombers showed some signs of a turnaround, but just as quickly they tumbled back down with a 50-point loss to the Dockers which could easily have been worse. If that all sounds very doom and gloom it’s for good reason, but it’s worth remembering that they are still right on the edge of the top eight and very much in the mix to play finals. Unfortunately, their run home is difficult, virtually all coming against other teams fighting for spots in the eight. That means, at least, that their fortunes are very much in their own hands, but based on how they have been playing it’s hard to imagine them winning enough of those games to play finals. Still, with Max Gawn returning from a brief layoff, and Lever and May both fit, there is the basis of a good team here. It’s hard to predict how they will play over the next month which makes picking their fortunes very difficult, which means that at pretty long odds they’re not the worst value selection. 

• What brings them here? The Dees have been a lock in the top eight for years, but with their midfield decimated relative to what it once they are no longer playing at nearly that same level. 
• What has changed? The Demons lost Angus Brayshaw to retirement and so too Michael Hibberd, while Brodie Grundy, James Harmes and James Jordon were traded. Jack Billings, Shane McAdam and Tom Fullarton were traded in.
• Injury update: As mentioned, Christian Petracca is out for the season, while so too is Charlie Spargo. Christian Salem is due back just on the eve of the finals from a hamstring injury. 

Bet on the Demons to make the top eight @ $2.70 with PlayUp

The Gold Coast Suns’ first season under three-time Premiership coach Damian Hardwick may very well end up the way that so many of theirs in the past have – some signs of promise, some potential to make the finals, only to ultimately fall short. But they are not out of the race just yet. If the Suns played like they do at home all across the country, they would be playing finals easily, though on the flip side of the coin if they played like they do away all of the time then they’d be on the bottom of the ladder. It’s one of the more remarkable stats in footy – 18 games into the year they had not yet dropped a game at Peoples First Stadium, their home ground. That 7-0 record, however, is offset by a 2-9 record everywhere else, something which new coach Hardwick has made clear does not please him very much at all. There are some signs of a good team in there and Dimma certainly knows what it takes to transform a team from a mediocre one into a very good one, but whether he can get them into their first finals series ever in his first season remains to be seen. All those losses on the road had them sitting a game and a half outside of the top eight with five games to go and probably needing to win at least three and maybe four of those, though that isn’t out of the realms of possibility with a reasonable draw to come. The Suns are looking likely to fall just short of the finals again, but at pretty long odds, given their fixture, it’s not entirely implausible that they sneak in.  

• What brings them here? The Suns are perenially hovering just outside the top eight, like a nerdy kid at school wanting to be included with their popular peers, and their woeful away record may again keep them just on the outer.
• What has changed?  The Dockers did lose a number of best 22 players last year, with Lachie Schultz heading to the Magpies and Liam Henry to the Saints, though they did also pick up Jeremy Sharp from the Gold Coast.
• Injury update: Ben Ainsworth is out for the season with a shoulder injury, and Levi Casboult till the eve of finals with a hamstring. Sam Day and Touk Miller are due back a week or so before that. 

Bet on the Suns to make the top eight @ $5.50 with PlayUp

Remarkably, the Magpies appear destined to miss the finals in 2024, which would make it two consecutive years in which the Premier has failed to make the top eight the next year – the Cats doing the same thing in 2022 and 2023. Though the Pies had a slow start to the season, it seemed inevitable that they would work their way not just back into the top eight, but into Premiership contention, with just one loss from 11 games following their 0-3 start to the season – though there were a couple of draws thrown in there too. Cracks started to appear towards the end of that, most notably when they went nine goals down to the Kangaroos, but they fought back remarkably to win that game by a point and seemingly keep their top four hopes aside. But then they lost to the Suns, and then they lost to the Bombers, and then they lost to the Cats, and then they got pumped by the Hawks to the tune of 66 points. Those four consecutive losses saw them tumble to 13th place and a game and a half plus percentage out of the top eight – a gap which, with five games to go, would be very difficult but which was made close to insurmountable by the fixture they have over the past month. In their last four games, the Magpies take on the Blues, Swans and Lions in succession – the three Premiership favourites – before rounding out the year with a game against the Demons. Needing to win probably all but one of those, it’s safe to say that they have their work cut out. If they can do enough to get into the finals then they will be a real danger in September because they will have to be playing damn good footy to get there, but after those four consecutive losses, it would be close to a minor miracle for them to scrape in from here. 

• What brings them here? The Magpies have been all over the place this year, but the reigning Premiers have put themselves right up against it to play finals courtesy of four consecutive losses in July.
• What has changed? The Power brought in a couple of players in positions of need, including Esava Ratugolea from the Cats and the Brandon Zerk-Thatcher from the Bombers down back, and Ivan Soldo from the Tigers in the ruck. Xavier Duursma was a significant loss, with the talented youngster heading to the Bombers.
• Injury update: Brody Mihocek is out for the season with a pectoral injury, while Tom Mitchell is TBC with his foot. Other than that there is nothing long-term for them to worry about from a best 22 perspective. 

Bet on the Magpies to make the top eight @ $13.00 with PlayUp 

Invariably it gets tougher to find value in markets the closer they come to concluding, and it’s no different here. A couple of the shorter odds teams, the Giants most notable among them, probably don’t look like great value given how tight things are, but equally it’s going to be really, really difficult for a more value bet like the Magpies or Suns to turn things around in the last month of the season. One team sitting around the middle which looks like decent value is the Hawks. Though it’s hard to consider them as one of the better teams in the league, that is exactly what they have been for a really extended period of time now. Even if it feels like a few years too early for them, the reality is that they have been winning and winning and winning, and have put themselves in a great position to jump into the top eight for the first time all year right on the eve of the finals. A young team with their tails up is never easy to stop, and that is exactly what they are right now. At even money, they look like a good chance to jump into the eight and make a finals appearance which a few months ago, even their most staunch supporters would not have expected.