NRL 2024 Premiership Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The Panthers, Roosters and Storm have progressively been establishing themselves as the teams to beat in the race for the 2024 NRL Premiership, and with a little over a month to go in the regular season they are streets ahead of the chasing pack as far as the betting markets are concerned. It seems increasingly likely that the team holding the Provans-Summons Trophy aloft on the evening of Sunday, the 6th of October will come from that trio, but of course, there is still plenty of time for things to change and there are a host of teams battling for relevance just below them, from the reigning Grand Finalists in the Broncos to the early season bolters in the Sharks, and even the vastly improved Bulldogs. Below, we will take a look at the chances of all the top contenders as we near this year’s finals series. 

No surprises to see the Panthers sitting atop this list, as they have done for most of the past four years. Having won three consecutive Premierships they were clearly going to be the team to beat again this year, even accounting for the fact that they have lost a number of players due to the inevitable salary cap squeeze which comes with as much success as they have enjoyed. They have been humming along all season long, rarely looking like the absolute best version of themselves but equally able to get the job done without too much trouble most weeks. They have also been forced to do it without Nathan Cleary for a large portion of the season after he suffered a serious hamstring earlier in the year, but with him returning a couple of months out from the finals he should be firing on all cylinders when the whips begin to crack. The Panthers will almost certainly finish top four and are well-placed to lock in a top two spot as well, giving themselves the double chance that is far more than often needed to win a flag. And once finals come around, having made four consecutive Grand Finals and won the last three, they will be streets ahead of their opposition in terms of both finals experience and self-belief. As was evident last year when the Broncos looked almost certain to beat them in the Grand Final before Nathan Cleary, the Panthers are far from unbeatable, but it will take a monumental effort to stop them winning a fourth consecutive flag. 

• What brings them here? The Panthers have been one of the most dominant teams in league history over the past four or five years, and are well on track to make a fifth consecutive Grand Final and win a fourth consecutive Premiership.
• What has changed? As mentioned, there have been a couple of big names leave the club; Crichton and Salmon aside, they have also lost Spencer Leniu, Jack Cogger, Thomas Jenkins and Zac Hosking. Coming into the team are Daine Laurie from the Wests Tigers, Brad Schneider from the UK and Paul Alamoti from the Bulldogs.
• Injury update: Jesse McLean will be unavailable until right around the end of the regular season, while Dylan Edwards’ knee injury will keep him out until Round 24. Paul Alamoti has an arm injury but has not yet been given a timeline for a return. 

Bet on the Panthers to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $3.00 with GetSetBet

The Storm have probably been the most consistent team all season, locking themselves into the top two very early in the year and then jumping clear on top once the Sharks hit a stumbling block a couple of months ago. They have had to deal with medium to long-term injuries to key players in Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cameron Munster, but it hasn’t stopped them from reeling off wins with apparent ease to establish a comfortable buffer on top of the ladder. Six consecutive wins through June and July put them two games clear on top and three games clear of third, meaning that barring a catastrophe they will be locking up a Qualifying Final at AAMI Park and potential road to the Grand Final without having to leave the ground at which they so rarely lose. The Storm have won a lot of close games this year, but that hasn’t fooled anyone into thinking that they don’t deserve to be on top of the ladder, and they showed just what they were capable of in Round 20 when they pumped the Roosters 24-8 in a game which shaped as a battle to be classed as Penrith’s main contender. That made it two from two against the Roosters this year for the Storm, and having beaten the Panthers 8-0 in the only game those two have played in 2024, it’s safe to say their credentials against their fellow top teams have been made abundantly clear. This is as professional an outfit as there is in the league and, headlined by four or five out and out superstars, have proven extremely hard to beat all season long. There is no reason to expect that to change come finals time, particularly given how they have played against the best teams this year. The Storm have good reason to believe that they, rather than the Panthers, are the team to beat in 2024.

• What brings them here? The Storm have been terrific all season long, dropping just three of their first 17 games and knocking off their fellow contenders whenever they have crossed paths. 
• What has changed? The Storm lost Tariq Sims and Jayden Nikorima to the Catalans overseas, Tom Eisenhuth to the Dragons and Justin Olam to the Tigers, while Shawn Blore was brought over from the Tigers. 
• Injury update: The Storm have a few injuries to think about, though mostly not to key players. Xavier Coates will be out until somewhere between Rounds 23 and 25 with a hamstring injury, while Cameron Munster makes his long-awaited return from a groin injury in Round 21. Elsewhere, Jonah Pezet won’t be available again this year, Bronson Garlick until about Round 24-25, while a host of players are due back a couple of weeks prior to that.

Bet on the Storm to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $4.00 with PlayUp 

The final team with a claim to Premiership favouritism, by some metrics the Roosters have been the best team in the league all season, even if their win/loss record does not suggest as much. They lost four of their first seven games, but had actually been playing fairly well during that period – each of the losses came by seven points or less, two of them to the Panthers and the Storm, while they knocked off the Broncos by 10 points and the Rabbitohs by 42 in that time. And to the surprise of no one, eventually the wins began to pile up. A 60-18 win over the Dragons in Round 8 kickstarted a run of three consecutive 20+ point wins, while through June and July they won four on the trot by an average of 23 points to jump into the top four. Their Round 20 loss to the Storm was a disappointing performance, but certainly not a reason to hit the panic button. Though they sit only precariously inside the top four at the time of writing, their points difference is the best in the league by far, which will very possibly be significant come the end of Round 27. Their offence has been the best in the league while defensively they have been as strong as just about anyone too – a pretty good recipe for finals success. No team has been able to as consistently flex their proverbial muscle as the Roosters, who have been demolishing teams for fun all year, and while they will obviously not be able to do that quite so easily come finals time against the likes of the Panthers and the Storm, there is no reason to think that this team is not more than capable of winning this season’s Premiership.   

• What brings them here? After a tumultuous first half of last season, the Roosters showed what they were capable of in the back half of 2023 and have carried that form into 2024.
• What has changed? Quite a lot. The Roosters have lost Fletcher Baker, Jaxson Paulo, Paul Momirovski, Drew Hutchison, Jake Turpin, Corey Allan and Ben Thomas to other teams, though Spencer Leniu comes across from the Panthers, Dominic Young from the Knights and Lewis Murphy from the UK. 
• Injury update: Egan Butcher is unavailable all year with a knee, and Robert Toia until late in the season. Billy Smith is out indefinitely with an ankle, and Jared Waerea- Hargreaves is suspended until Round 25.

Bet on the Roosters to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $4.20 with GetSetBet

The Sharks started the season like a house on fire, winning nine of their first ten games and seeming to establish themselves as far more of a legitimate contender than most expected. And it wasn’t as though they were gifted an entirely easy fixture, either; in consecutive weeks they knocked off first the Storm and then the Roosters to take their record to 9-1, but it was just as they appeared to have proven themselves that the wheels fell off. The next week was the third of a very difficult trio of games, and they failed that test miserably, going down 42-0 to the Panthers. Inclusive of that game they would go on to lose five of their next six, sending them back to the pack. But courtesy of that excellent start to the season, they still find themselves in a good position to make the top four at the time of writing. They have a relatively friendly run home, though based on how they have played for an extended period of time nothing is guaranteed for this side. A top four finish is still very possible, but equally, if they keep playing the way that they have it is not outside the realms of possibility that they fall completely out of the top eight. The Sharks have showed that they are a very capable team when it all comes together and with their top four prospects, they can easily claim to be the best Premiership chance outside of the top three. But they have found themselves in a spiral after the first half of the season, and if they are to do any damage in the finals they will need to wrench themselves out of it quickly.  

• What brings them here? The Sharks skyrocketed into Premiership contention as a result of their barnstorming start to the season, though they have fallen off a bit after a 9-1 start.  
• What has changed? The Sharks had a pretty quiet off-season, with Billy Burns the only addition after he came across from the Dragons. Matt Moylan and Connor Tracey both headed overseas, while Wade Graham retired. 
• Injury update: Kade Dykes is out for the season, but the most significant injury is to Nicho Hynes, who is expected back from an ankle in Round 26. Jesse Colquhoun is still TBC with his knee injury. 

Bet on the Sharks to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $15.00 with GetSetBet

What a weird season it has been for the Broncos. Last year’s runners-up had a bit of a slow start with three losses in their first five games before going 5-1 in their next six to entrench themselves in the top eight. Unfortunately, it did not last. They went on to lose six in a row after that much to the surprise of the NRL world, and while they weren’t exactly playing horribly, they certainly weren’t looking anything like the contender that they were last year. A bounce back always felt inevitable, but with every passing week that it didn’t come their finals hopes diminished further, and their chances of a top four finish and the double chance that comes with it all but fell away. Finally, they arrested their losing skid in Round 20 with a 16-point win over the Knights, and with a reasonably friendly fixture on the run home they should really be able to work their way into the top eight. If they do they will certainly be a dangerous team and will most likely be the best outside of the top four, but we all know how difficult it is to win the Premiership from the bottom half of the eight. Barring a minor miracle over the run home, that is exactly what the Broncos will have to do. At their best they have the ability to challenge every team in the league, but they have put their backs against the ropes.  

• What brings them here? The Broncos would have been hoping to be in a much stronger position at this stage of the year than what they are, though they do still remain a dangerous team at their best. 
• What has changed? Not too much. Keenan Palasia has headed to the Gold Coast while both Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler will suit up for the Dolphins, and Kurt Capewell for the Warriors. Coming in are Fletcher Baker from the Roosters, and Jaiyden Hunt from the St. George Illawarra Dragons. 
• Injury update: Ben Te Kura will be out unavailable until late in the season and Jack Gosiewski until finals, while Fletcher Baker is expected to be available in about Round 22 or 23. Jock Madden is TBC with a hamstring.

Bet on the Broncos to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $15.00 with PlayUp

Earlier in the year, the Broncos and the Sharks were included in a group of five who seemed to be the frontrunners for the Premiership, and the Sea Eagles were heading the pack of chasers. Now, with the Broncos and the Sharks having dropped off, Manly has joined those two sides as one of the three teams sitting behind the Storm, Panthers and Roosters in the betting. The Sea Eagles are not as good as that top three, but they have done plenty right this year and with a healthy top three of Jake and Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, they are a team which cannot be taken lightly. Importantly, their performances against the best teams has been really impressive this season. They beat both the Roosters and the Panthers within the space of a month earlier in the year, have also beaten the Storm on the one occasion they played them, while the second time they took on the Panthers it was a relatively tight loss. Whether they can replicate those efforts in the finals is another question, and they do of course have to get to the finals first, which is no certainty given how tight the ladder is. But they are well positioned to do so and should be good enough over the remaining few weeks of the season to get there, and if all goes well they could feasibly sneak into the top four, too. It’s hard to imagine them going all the way at this point, but the Sea Eagles have been really consistent all year, and if Tom Turbo and his brother along with the experienced Cherry-Evans are fit and firing at the pointy end of the season, they could cause some damage. 

• What brings them here? The Sea Eagles have been hovering around the edge of the finals for a couple of years and are theoretically in a similar spot this year, but this year’s team has been far more consistently well performed than its predecessors.
• What has changed? Quite a lot changed for the Sea Eagles in the offseason. They lost a number of players to other teams including Sean Keppie, Samuela Fainu, Morgan Harper, Kelma Tuilagi, Kaeo Weekes and Christian Tuipolulotu. Coming in, however, were former Tigers trio Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau, Aitasi James, as well as Jaxson Paolo, Corey Waddell and Bailey Hodgson. 
• Injury update: Jake Arthur won’t be available all year and Lachlan Croker indefinitely, while Lehi Hopoate and Tolu Koula are due to be available in Round 25. Matt Lodge should be back the week before that, and Haumole Olakau’atu’s suspension ends in Round 23.

Bet on the Sea Eagles to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $15.00 with PlayUp

The Cowboys have been up and down like a yoyo over the past couple of years, and the result with just under two months to go in the 2024 regular season is that they find themselves right on the edge of the top eight. Their form has been erratic to say the least; breaking down the first 15 games of the year into five-game patches, they have gone 4-1, 0-5, 4-1. But with wins against the Panthers and the Bulldogs in the next three weeks as well as a one-point loss to the Sea Eagles, they put themselves just marginally inside the top eight and with a 6-2 record over the previous two months with just a few games to go in the season. Impressively, the Cowboys have beaten both the Roosters and the Panthers this season, though it’s worth noting that those were Origin-affected games. Last year the Cowboys were similarly erratic and ultimately ended up missing the finals, but they haven’t displayed the same top level as they did in 2023, even if they have played well more often this year. Last year, they had a period of about a month where they knocked off contender after contender after contender, and this year’s incarnation of the side does not feel capable of doing that. Their strong recent form has put the Cowboys in a good position to return to the finals in 2024, but it is hard to imagine them doing all that much damage, let alone going all the way. 

• What brings them here? The Cowboys had a strong start to the season and have been in good form over the past couple of months in the lead-in to the finals, which has put them in a decent position to finish in the top eight. 
• What has changed? There are a few outs for the Cowboys, probably most notably Peta Hiku, who has gone to the UK, while Riley Price, Jake Bourke and Taniela Sadrugu have also found new homes and Mitch Dunn and James Tamou have retired. Viliami Vailea is their only acquisition, coming across from the Warriors. 
• Injury update: Zac Laybutt and Coen Hess are both out for the season with knee injuries, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown has been due back ‘mid-season’ from an Achilles for a long time, and that’s about it as far as injuries go at the time of writing for the Cowboys.

Bet on the Cowboys to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $26.00 with PlayUp

The Bulldogs have been really impressive this season, and while they might still be a fair way from a Premiership they have reason to be very optimistic about the future. In fact, even this year it would be no surprise to see them cause a little bit of a ruckus in the finals given that they have been competitive in all but a very small handful of games this year against opponents of all quality. Their start to the year was no good – two heavy losses in the first two weeks which suggested that more of the same was on the way for this perennially disappointing team – but they turned things around in Round 3 and haven’t looked back. They would go 9-6 over their next 15 games, but perhaps even more impressive than that record is the fact that only one of those six defeats was by more than six points – that coming against the Roosters. They have lost a host of close games and could easily have won more, and have beaten the Roosters (the first time they met this year), lost to the Storm by just two points and lost to the Panthers by just six. The Bulldogs have been the best home team in the league this year from a win/loss perspective, having not lost there at the time of writing; unfortunately that has been offset by a dreadful away record, but with so many tight defeats on the road that’s not necessarily indicative of all that dramatic a problem. Realistically the notion of them winning the Premiership this year is one which feels like it belongs in la-la land, but they have consistently taken it up to every team they have played for four months now, and if they can carry that form into the finals they will be a tough out no matter who they play. 

• What brings them here? The Bulldogs have been gradually turning over their list for years, and it finally appears to be paying dividends as they have developed into a bonafide finals quality team. 
• What has changed? The Bulldogs continued their long-term list turnover in the off-season. They picked up, as mentioned, Stephen Crichton from the Panthers in what is a big get, while they also grabbed his teammate Jaeman Salmon, as well as Kurt Mann from the Knights, Blake Taaffe from the Bunnies, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters, Connor Tracey from the Sharks and Poasa Faamausili from the Dolphins. With all those ins there are also obviously heaps of outs; each of Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti have gone elsewhere in the NRL while Luke Thompson and Jayden Okunbor headed overseas. 
• Injury update: Ryan Sutton won’t be available all season with a knee injury, while Blake Taaffe isn’t due back till finals in a big blow. Jaeman Salmon, meanwhile, is out until about Round 25, and Josh Addo-Carr is due back a couple of weeks prior to that.  

Bet on the Bulldogs to win the 2024 NRL Premiership at $34.00 with PlayUp

Though each member of the chasing pack has something going for them, there is a good reason that the Panthers, Storm and Roosters have established themselves as the clear teams to beat in the race for the 2024 NRL Premiership. It’s very difficult to separate those teams; the Panthers, of course, have all the pedigree in the world, the Storm have been the most consistent team throughout the year, while the Roosters’ best has arguably been as good as anyone. Each of those teams is more than capable of winning the flag, but while they were disappointing in losing to the Storm recently, the Roosters have been the team that has consistently played at a higher level than any other in the league. Perhaps their biggest issue is that finishing top two is going to be difficult, but they have been dominant at their best and could very easily beat the Panthers or Storm in Penrith or Melbourne. Points difference doesn’t explain everything but it can be a good indicator of a team’s actual potential – often more so than win/loss record – and theirs has been the best in the league by a mile all year. That won’t win them a flag but it certainly counts for something. They have to beat a couple of very good teams to do it, but this Roosters team is a great chance of winning this year’s Premiership.

Most NRL Premierships

• South Sydney Rabbitohs – 21
• Sydney Roosters – 15
• St George Dragons – 15
• Balmain Tigers – 11
• Manly Sea Eagles – 8
• Canterbury Bulldogs – 8

Longest Grand Final Winning Steak

• 11 years – 1956 to 1966 – St George Dragons

Current clubs yet to win a NRL Premiership

• New Zealand Warriors – 1995 to Present
• Gold Coast Titans – 2007 to Present

Longest NRL Match Winning Streak

• 19 matches – Eastern Suburbs Roosters (1975)

Most NRL games played

• Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm) 430 games (2002 to 2020)