NRL – Top 8 NRL 2024 Betting Odds & Expert’s Predictions

In the Panthers, Sharks, Storm, Roosters and Broncos, a clear quintet of favourites has emerged in the race for the 2024 NRL Premiership. Those five teams are, of course, widely expected to play finals, with odds for the first three of them to finish top eight not even available any longer and the Roosters and Broncos already very short. But assuming those five do get there, there will still be three spots up for grabs which a swathe of teams could fill, and there is plenty of value to be found in the top eight betting markets as a result. Below, we will take a look at some of the best value teams to play finals in the NRL in 2024. 

As with many Wayne Bennett-led teams over the years, the Dolphins have shown a consistent capacity to outperform expectations over their one-and-a-half seasons in the NRL, and this year there is a good chance that will result in their inaugural finals appearance. That certainly wasn’t the expectation coming into the season, at least not externally, but after being drubbed by the Cowboys in Round 1 the Dolphins have been really consistent. In fact, well over the halfway point of the season, they had only endured one other loss by more than four points, that coming when the Broncos beat them by 14 points in early April. The Dolphins’ 30-28 win over the Sharks in Round 15 was the first time that they had beat one of the top sides this year, but while most of their wins have been up against bottom nine sides, that’s pretty much what they need to do to play finals. Their consistency is close to unmatched and rarely do they put in poor performances or drop games that they are expected to win, and that was enough to have them inside the top four 15 rounds into the season. The ladder, however, is extremely tight and they could easily tumble quickly with a couple of losses, but the Dolphins are increasingly looking like a finals quality side. If they can continue the trend of winning the games that they should win, then they will most likely stay inside the top eight and make the finals for the first time in their short history. 

• What brings them here? The Dolphins just keep winning the games that they should win, and that has resulted in a lot more victories than defeats in the first half or so of the year to put them in a good spot to challenge for finals.
• What has changed? The Dolphins didn’t change all that much in the off-season. They lost each of Brenko Lee, Poasa Faamausili and Hermen Ese’ese, while they picked up Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler from the Broncos, as well as Jake Averillo and Oryn Keeley.
• Injury update: The Dolphins are aided in their finals quest by a pretty short injury list. Tom Gilbert is out for the season with a knee and Tom Flegler is indefinite with a shoulder, but that aside they are pretty healthy at the time of writing.

Bet on the Dolphins to make the finals at $1.45 with PlayUp

The Sea Eagles have fallen marginally short of the finals for two consecutive years now, but the 2024 incarnation of the team appears to be a more hardened version of that team, and one which really should be snatching one of the lower spots in the top eight. Since knocking off the Rabbitohs and Roosters in the first two games of the season they have been really solid, their most impressive patch of form coming through April when they didn’t lose, and most impressively of all beat the Panthers by 14 points. Three consecutive losses followed but they weren’t disgraced in any of those games, and ending that rut by knocking off the Storm to give them wins against arguably the best two teams in the league in the first 12 games of the season. The Sea Eagles have had to do a lot of their work without star Tom Trbojevic, who, just for a change, has found himself on the injury list. But Tom Turbo won’t be out for too much longer, and if he comes back as expected in Round 18 from his hamstring injury then they will be a hard team to keep out of the top eight over the remaining eight or ten weeks of the season. At the time of writing they are locked right in the middle of the raft of teams in the middle parts of the ladder, but they have been playing a brand of footy throughout much of the year that should hold them in good stead in the run home to the finals. They have been one of the best teams in the league at home, winning six of their first eight games in Manly, and though they have struggled away, most of their losses have been tight ones. If they can avoid continuing to lose the majority of close ones like they have in the first half of the season, and particularly if Trbojevic stays healthy upon his return, the Sea Eagles should be returning to the finals this year. 

• What brings them here? The Sea Eagles have been on the cusp of the finals for the past couple of years, but a number of off-season changes have made them a better team this year.
• What has changed? A lot changed for the Sea Eagles from last year to this one. They lost a host of players to other teams, including Sean Keppie, Samuela Fainu, Morgan Harper, Kelma Tuilagi, Kaeo Weekes and Christian Tuipulotu, while coming in were former Tigers trio Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau and Aitasi James, as well as Jaxson Paulo, Corey Waddell and Bailey Hodgson.
• Injury update: Tom Trbojevic, as mentioned, is due back in Round 18, along with Reuben Garrick from concussion and Josh Aloiai from suspension. Jake Arthur won’t play again this year with a foot injury while Jake Arthur isn’t expected to be available until about Round 24 from a bicep injury, while the timelines of Taniela Paseka and Lachlan Croker are still to be confirmed at the time of writing.

Bet on the Eagles to make the finals at $1.55 with PlayUp

The Cowboys have been as enigmatic as ever in 2024, displaying, as they did last year, a big gap between their best and their worst. That gap has not been quite as drastic as it was in 2023, when they were a bottom four side for most of the year, the best team in the league for a month, and then not very good once again, but there has still be a considerable difference in their performances from week to week at points throughout the course of this season to date. They opened their season with four wins from their first five games before losing their next five, then bounced back with four wins from their next five once again. Evidence of their erratic form line during the latter of those five-game stretches came when they beat the Roosters 18-16 in an admittedly Origin-affected game, before the next week going down 42-12 to the Warriors. Their best is clearly good enough to play finals, and at the time of writing they are right in the aforementioned glut of teams in the middle of the ladder. It seems likely that they will end up right on the cusp of the top eight, and with a lot of games to come against other teams that will be in a similar area it is likely to be those games which determine whether they return to the finals in 2024. At close to even money odds, they are far from the worst value out there to make the top eight. 

• What brings them here? The Cowboys were Preliminary Finalists just two years ago and last year beat most of the Premiership favourites, and with that ability it’s no surprise that they are winning enough games to put themselves in the finals mix.
• What has changed? The Cowboys have lost Peta Hiku to the UK, as well as Mitch Dunn and James Tamou to retirement and each of Riley Price, Jake Bourke and Taniela Sadrugu to other teams. Meanwhile, Viliami Vailea comes across from the Warriors.
• Injury update: Coen Hess and Zac Laybutt won’t play again this season after each suffering knee injuries, while Jamayne Taunoa-Brown is expected back sometime mid-season from his Achilles. Jake Granville is due back in about Round 20, while there is not yet a timeline on Semi Valemei’s ankle injury.

Bet on the Cowboys to make the finals at $1.80 with PlayUp

Are the Bulldogs finally kind of good? I think they might be. After years spent in the doldrums, they have significantly turned over their list in recent seasons and in 2024 appear finally to have developed into a competitive, potentially finals-ready outfit. They didn’t start the season like one, losing their first two games comfortably, but from then up until their bye in Round 15 they didn’t turn in a poor performance. In that time they went 7-4, their best win coming against the Roosters while they also pumped a couple of lower teams, and they also played out some really gallant defeats, going down by just two points to the Storm and six points to the Panthers in Penrith. In fact, during that 11-game stretch they didn’t lose a single game by more than six points. By the aforementioned bye they had a 7-6 record, but it could have easily been better than that and their points difference of +81 was the fourth best in the league at that time. Until then they were also the only team in the league yet to be defeated at home, boasting a 6-0 record on their own home turf, and while that was offset by a 1-6 record away, a lot of those losses were very close ones and many of them to good teams. The Bulldogs have been one of the more consistent and better performed teams in the league since that opening fortnight of the season, and while it’s invariably hard to trust a team which has been down for so long, they have barely put a foot wrong. An argument could be made that they are a better team than a couple of those mentioned above, and at better than even money odds they look like one of the better bets to play finals in 2024. 

• What brings them here?  The Bulldogs have turned over their list a lot over the past couple of years, and it appears to be paying dividends as they are consistently competing each and every week, no matter who they come up against.
• What has changed? The Bulldogs continued their long-term list turnover in the off-season. They picked up, as mentioned, Stephen Crichton from the Panthers in what is a big get, while they also grabbed his teammate Jaeman Salmon, as well as Kurt Mann from the Knights, Blake Taaffe from the Bunnies, Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters, Connor Tracey from the Sharks and Poasa Faamausili from the Dolphins. With all those ins there are also obviously heaps of outs; each of Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti have gone elsewhere in the NRL while Luke Thompson and Jayden Okunbor headed overseas.
• Injury update: The Bulldogs are managing all of this with a hefty injury list, though they will be getting plenty of players back in the near future. Karl Oloapu and Ryan Sutton have unknown timelines with their injuries, while Daniel Suluka-Fifita is due back in around Round 19 from a knee, and Kurt Mann from suspension the week prior. Josh Addo-Carr has a hamstring injury which will keep him out for a few weeks, but the exact timeline remains unclear.

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the finals at $2.20 with PlayUp

After making the Preliminary Finals last year, the Warriors have put themselves in a difficult position to not just repeat that effort, but even to make the finals in 2024. But they are far from out of it. After slumping to 3-1-6, they reeled off three impressive wins; the first against the Panthers, the second against the Dolphins and the third by 30 points against the Cowboys. That run came to an end when they took on the Storm the week after, but the three consecutive wins put them right back in the mix to jump into the top eight. Though there are a couple of good teams around them on the ladder that they will struggle to get past – the likes of the Sea Eagles and particularly the Broncos come to mind – there are others who could easily slump as the season wears on, and if the Warriors can maintain the solid form that they have displayed of late they will likely be there or thereabouts when the whips are cracking. They are a better team than the 12th place ladder position in which they find themselves at the time of writing, and are decent value to work their way up into a finals spot by the end of the home and away season. 

• What brings them here? The Warriors would have been hoping to be in a better position by this time of year after their top four finish last year, but they are gradually working their way into season and are far from out of the finals race. 
• What has changed? The Warriors, as mentioned, have a big acquisition in the form of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, and they have also secured Kurt Capewell from the Broncos and Chanel Harris-Tavita. But there are quite a number of outs, too, with all of Viliami Vailea, Bailey Sironen, Josh Curran and Ronald Volkman playing elsewhere this year and Brayden Wiliame retiring.
• Injury update: Luke Metcalf is the longest term injury for the Warriors, his fractured leg set to keep him out until late in the season. Both Paul Roache and Ali Leiataua are expected to be available from Round 18 onwards.

Bet on the Warriors to make the finals at $2.35 with PlayUp

The Raiders defied the expectations of most last year when they made their way through to the finals, but having enjoyed a seemingly unsustainable number of close wins and then lost a number of important players in the off-season, that seemed unlikely to repeat itself this year. The odds suggest that they are still up against it, but they have put themselves in a position to play finals more than halfway through the season. Though not quite to the same extent as last year, they have once again enjoyed a number of close losses, something to which a points difference of -55 after 13 games despite having more wins than losses points to. From Rounds 9-15, they split their six games 3-3, but incredibly their points difference in that time was -79, with each loss coming by big margins and all of their wins by four points or less. As it did last year, that seems like an unsustainable model by which to hope to play finals. But it’s now been a year and a half that the Raiders have just kept winning close games, so clearly they have the confidence and capacity to dig deep when it matters most. Still, given they are getting fairly readily pumped by good teams it feels like only a matter of time before they begin to lose more games than they win and slump down the ladder as a result, but with less than three months to go in the home and away season they found themselves in the top eight, so they certainly cannot be ruled out of finals contention. 

• What brings them here? The Raiders just keep finding a way to defy expectations, and even if some of it must surely be put down to good fortune in close games, they deserve plenty of credit for continually doing it.
• What has changed? The Raiders lost Jack Wighton to the Rabbitohs, while Harley Smith-Shields headed to the Titans. Simi Sasagi came across from the Knights, Kaeo Weekes from the Sea Eagles, Zac Hosking from the Panthers and Morgan Smithies from the UK.
• Injury update: Corey Harawira-Neira continues to be listed as indefinite as he deals with a medical condition, while Pasami Saulo is too with his back. Zac Hosking is expected back in Round 21/22 from his shoulder and Jamal Fogarty a week or two earlier from his bicep injury.

Bet on the Raiders to make the finals at $2.80 with PlayUp

After their barnstorming end to 2023 which saw them win nine on the trot in the home and away season before making their way into a semi-final, the Knights had reasonably high hopes that they could again play finals footy in 2024 even having endured a couple of significant departures in the off-season. But seven weeks into the season they had won just two games, and making matters far, far worse was a significant injury to reigning Dally M Medalist Kalyn Ponga in that Round 7 game – an injury which will still keep him out for another month or so. Of course, given the unpredictability of the NRL at the moment it should probably not have come as any surprise that they subsequently went on to win their four games. But while that did help them claw their way back up the ladder, all those wins were tight ones and it was a relatively friendly month of fixturing, and with the Bulldogs, Storm and Panthers waiting for them over the next three weeks, the loss of Ponga became far more stark as they endured three consecutive losses to send them plummeting back down from whence they came. With a little over two months to go in the home and away season they are far from out of the finals race, but they have plenty of work to do to get there, something to which their odds can attest. Knights fans will be hoping that they suffer a bit of déjà vu in the coming months given they were in a similar – worse, even – situation this time last year and ultimately ended up finishing fifth. The return of Ponga for the last month and a half or so of the season will certainly help, but they have their work cut out staying in the mix until then. But it’s worth noting that the Knights do have a number of winnable games to come, and with the ladder as tight as it is, a string of wins could see their situation very quickly change. Certainly they are up against it to play finals this year, but even at $8 they are far from out of it. 

• What brings them here? After the way they finished last year the Knights would have been hoping to be in the hunt for the finals this year, though they have certainly not replicated that form and an injury to Ponga has not helped in the slightest.
• What has changed? Dominic Young is a significant loss for the Knights after he led them in tries last season, while they’ve also lost Kurt Mann, Bailey Hodgson, Simi Sasagi, Lachlan Miller, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Adam Clune. On the flip side, they will welcome Jack Cogger and Thomas Jenkins from the Panthers, as well as Jed Cartwright from the Rabbitohs, and Will Pryce and Kai Pearce-Paul from abroad.
• Injury update: Ponga is, of course, the most significant injury for the Knights, due back from a foot in Round 20. Him aside, however, their injury list is pretty short; Tyson Gamble is also out with a foot injury and expected to be available in about Round 22, while the return date of Kai Pearce-Paul from his toe injury is still to be confirmed. 

Bet on the Knights to make the finals at $8.00 with PlayUp

The Rabbitohs surely couldn’t, could they? After entering the season as one of the Premiership favourites, their season could hardly have been more of a disaster – at least until a few weeks ago. Tumult on the field, off the field, injury concerns – they went through all of it in the first couple of months of the season, the result being the inevitable sacking of Jason Demetriou. Ten games into the season they had accumulated an ugly looking 1-9 record, and having endured a number of beltings, a points difference of -186 which was pretty comfortably the worst in the league. A six-point loss to the Cowboys in the last of those first ten games was the first sign that things could be turning around, but the extent to which it has since then was hard to predict. They finally picked up a second win when they beat the Eels by 16 points, then they belted the Titans by 34, before beating the Broncos, of all teams, by ten points. All of a sudden they are looking like a dangerous team once again, and with a couple more players still to filter back in off the injury list they could get better still. During those three consecutive wins they certainly looked like a team capable of playing finals; the issue, of course, is the enormous task they have set themselves with that 1-9 start to the season. Making matters worse is the fact that they had two byes pretty early, so there are no free points coming their way. It’s a mighty ask for the Rabbitohs, but all of a sudden they are in good form, and they have a very kind looking draw throughout July. If they continue to play the way that they did during that three-game winning streak they could easily win most if not all of them, which would all of a sudden put them right back in the mix. For a team which was the worst in the league just a few weeks ago it might be a big ask for them to maintain that form, but they are perhaps the most unpredictable team in the league, so at $10 there are certainly worse value selections going around. 

• What brings them here? The Rabbitohs, entering the season, would have hoped to be a part of the five-team mix for whom finals odds are virtually switched off, but instead they’re at the other end of the spectrum after a disastrous first three months of the year. The tide, however, may just be turning.
• What has changed? There wasn’t a massive amount of turnover for the Rabbitohs in the off-season, though some was significant. They lost Hame Sele to the Dragons, Daniel Suluka-Fifita and Blake Taaffe to the Bulldogs, and Jed Cartwright to the UK. Jack Wighton, meanwhile, came across from the Raiders, and Sean Keppie from the Sea Eagles.
• Injury update: Lachlan Ilias is out indefinitely with a leg injury, while Dean Hawkins is expected to be available in Round 21 from a quad. Siliva Havili, Tevita Tatola and Campbell Graham are all expected to be available at some point around or just before Round 20.

Bet on the Rabbitohs to make the finals at $10.00 with PlayUp

An interesting market this one is turning out to be indeed. With five spots very likely already sewn up to the consensus best five teams in the league – and certainly at least four of those – it seems likely that there are only three spots up for grabs, and any of the above teams could theoretically take them. The Sea Eagles look like one that should really be playing in the finals, but given how tight the season is, their short odds aren’t particularly appealing. At the other end of the spectrum, neither the Knights or the Broncos are out of the race and could offer decent value. But we’re going to settle somewhere in the middle. The Bulldogs, after a bad first fortnight, have been consistently really good all year, not once being beaten easily, taking it up to a couple of the best teams in the league and securing some really impressive wins. They have put themselves in a great position from which to attack the eight over the remaining couple of months of the season, and if they can maintain the form that they have enjoyed virtually all season to date, then they should be playing finals. At better than even money odds, they might be the best value team on the board.