NRL – Top 8 NRL 2024 Betting Odds & Expert’s Predictions

Now over a month into the 2024 NRL season, a number of teams have put their hands up as potential surprise finalists, while a handful of others have quickly put themselves well behind the eight ball in the hunt for September action. The Panthers are the only team at virtually unbackable odds to play finals, meaning that there is quite a lot of value to be found in what is, at this point in time, a relatively unpredictable market. On this page, we’ll list the odds to make the top eight of every team, before taking a deep dive into the chances a few of the better value options. 

Admittedly the Storm aren’t exactly an outsider to make the finals at $1.22, but that still looks like value to me for a team which has been as consistent a force at the top of the NRL ladder as any team in Australian sport over the past two decades. They haven’t missed the finals since way back in 2002 and have missed just two times in their history, and most of those seasons they have made it comfortably. Recent years have been no exception; aside from a fifth place in 2022 they have been top three every year harking back to 2015, and have missed the top four just twice since 2005. Those are some serious numbers, and while their history from close to 20 years ago isn’t necessarily relevant to today, it does speak to the culture of one of the most successful clubs in the country. What’s more, the Storm were Preliminary Finalists last year, and they did that without their best player in Ryan Papenhuyzen for the vast majority of the year. With him back fit and firing this season they now have a really strong top core of players with him alongside the likes of Cameron Munster and Harry Grant, and they started the year positively with three wins in four games – including defeats of the other three Preliminary Finalists from last year in the Panthers, Broncos and Warriors. Their odds to make the finals are relatively short, but they should be even shorter. It’s really hard to imagine the Storm missing the finals, and even at $1.22 this looks like a good value bet.  

• What brings them here? Incredible consistency which has seen them remain right up the pointy end of the NRL ladder for the bulk of the last 20 years. An ability to regenerate their list on the fly has seen them transition from the likes of Slater and Smith to Papenhuyzen and Munster while hardly skipping a beat.
• What has changed? The Storm had a reasonably quiet off-season, which wouldn’t have bothered them too much. They lost a few names in Tariq Sims, Tom Eisenhuth, Justin Olam and Jayden Nikorima, while Shawn Blore came across from the Wests Tigers.
• Injury update: Further aiding the Storm’s quest for yet another finals appearance is a nearly empty injury list. At the time of writing Sua Fa’alogo is the only name on it with an ankle injury, but he is just about ready to return.  

Bet on the Storm to make the finals at $1.22 with PlayUp

Since making the Preliminary Finals in 2021, the Sea Eagles have failed to return to the finals in the two season since, falling to 11th in 2022 and then 12th last year. But despite that drop in the ladder, last year – their first under new coach Anthony Seibold – was an improvement on the previous one. That 11th place finish came with a 9-15 record and a disastrous end to the season, but last year they won 11 games and drew another and were a much more legitimate finals contender. As has been the case for all but one of the past five years, they did all that without their best player in Tom Trbojevic for the bulk of the season. After playing just seven games in 2021 he played 11 last year, and unsurprisingly they were a much better team with him in it. His health will play a key role in their ability to return to the finals in 2024, but he has started the season fit and firing, and has played a key role in getting the Sea Eagles off to a strong start in their second season under Seibold. In just their first five games they notched up a number of really impressive wins, beating the Rabbitohs, Roosters and then best of all the Panthers, though a loss to the Dragons was one they could have done without. Still, they’ve started the season off well. They have looked every bit a finals side for the first few weeks of the season, and if they can maintain some form of consistency throughout the course of the year then they should be returning to the finals for the first time since 2021. 

• What brings them here? As mentioned the Sea Eagles haven’t exactly been a staple of the finals over the past few years, but they have a really capable, experienced core which, if healthy, should put them in a good position to play finals. 
• What has changed? A lot changed for the Sea Eagles from last year to this one. They lost a host of players to other teams, including Sean Keppie, Samuela Fainu, Morgan Harper, Kelma Tuilagi, Kaeo Weekes and Christian Tuipulotu, while coming in were former Tigers trio Luke Brooks, Tommy Talau and Aitasi James, as well as Jaxson Paulo, Corey Waddell and Bailey Hodgson.
• Injury update: The Sea Eagles are looking pretty good on the injury front early in the year, with only Reuben Garrick, Matt Lodge and Jason Saab on the injury list and all only short-termers. 

Bet on the Storm to make the finals at $1.75 with PlayUp

The Rabbitohs have been no stranger to turmoil over the past year, but despite that they entered this season with high expectations. And fair enough too; on paper they have the ability to be a contender, but leadership and off-field issues have plagued them and seen them unable to reach the potential that the quality of their list would suggest that they have. Unfortunately, despite the positivity surrounding them entering the year, they have endured a dreadful start to 2024, and their expectations have been recalibrated from Premiership contender, to outsider even to make the finals. They certainly haven’t looked like a team capable of playing finals to start the year, winning just one of their first five games – that coming against the struggling Bulldogs by just four points – and the nature of their losses has been particularly concerning. After relatively competitive losses to start the year they went down 48-6 in a humiliating showing against the Roosters, while two weeks later they lost 34-4 to the Warriors. Those performances are simply unacceptable and have seen them mired to the bottom of the ladder in the early stages of the season, and with a lot of work to do to get themselves back in the finals conversation. But despite all of the problems that they clearly need to fix, this is a team that just a few weeks ago was fancied to potentially finish top four and challenge for a flag. The off-field issues won’t resolve overnight and coach Jason Demetriou is likely on borrowed time, but the season is a long one. Through May and June the Bunnies have a pretty friendly fixture, and while there is every chance they’ll have a lot of work to do to catch up to the top eight by then, it’s not that difficult to imagine things turning around for them at some point this season. If and when that happens, if they’re within striking distance of the top eight, the teams in front of them will be very nervously looking over their shoulders. 

• What brings them here? The Rabbitohs were far from an outsider to make the top eight at the beginning of the 2024 season, but a woeful start to the season has seen their odds drift very rapidly.
• What has changed? Not too much from last year. Hame Sele, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Blake Taaffe and Jed Cartwright were traded, while Jack Wighton was a big in and Sean Keppie came over from Manly.
• Injury update: An extensive injury list isn’t helping the Rabbitohs’ cause. Each of Jai Arrow, Lachlan Ilias and Richie Kennar are TBC with injuries, while Campbell Graham is out for most of the season with a sternum injury, Alex Johnston till about Round 10 with a hammy, and significantly, Latrell Mitchell is out with suspension also until Round 10. 

Bet on the Rabbitohs to make the finals at $2.75 with PlayUp

After consecutive first week finals exits in Adam Reynolds’ first two seasons as coach, the Knights fell off a cliff in 2022 to finish 14th, and halfway through last year appeared to be destined for a similar fate. Instead, they reeled off nine consecutive wins to end up 14-9-1, finished in fifth, and won a thrilling final against the Raiders. Led by Dally M Medalist Kalyn Ponga, they would understandably be expecting to return to the finals this season, and look like pretty decent value at $2.75 to make it. Those odds have ballooned out a little since the start of the season, and while they split their first five games 2-3, their performances have been fairly solid in that time and those odds could easily be shorter. A first round loss to the Raiders was a disappointing performance, but that aside they were impressive in the first month or so, beating the Storm and smashing the Dragons, while going down in tight games to the Cowboys and the Warriors. The form they displayed over the back half of last season might be a little deceiving and certainly nobody is expecting them to be knocking off everyone they come across like they did during that period, but equally they are a much better team than the first half of last season suggested. A lot of change occurred in the Knights’ ranks over the off-season and it might take some time to figure out just what this team is capable of given they’ve lost a lot of important players, but also gained a number of guys who can play a significant role for them. But this team has the talent to compete for a spot in the finals, and further aiding their hopes is the fact that they are generally very tough to beat at home. If they can win the bulk of their games at McDonald Jones Stadium like they did last year, they’ll be right in the mix to play finals.

• What brings them here? The Knights have made the finals in three of their four seasons under Adam O’Brien, and were arguably the most dangerous team in the league over the back half of last season.
• What has changed? A lot. Among the mass exodus at the conclusion of last season were Kurt Mann, Dominic Young, Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Simi Sasagi and Adam Clune, though they picked up Penrith pair Jack Cogger and Thomas Jenkins, as well as Jed Cartwright from the Bunnies and Kai Pearce-Paul and Will Pryce from the UK.
• Injury update: The Knights are looking pretty healthy early in the year. Tyson Frizell doesn’t yet have a timeline on his return from a hamstring, but he’s about all they have to worry about at the time of writing.

Bet on the Knights to make the finals at $2.75 with PlayUp

After a difficult period through the early stages of the 2010s, the Eels bounced back into the finals in 2017 with a semi-final appearance, and though that was followed up with a shocking next season, they were a staple of the finals in the years that followed. In each of the next four season they have finished between third and sixth, winning either 14, 15 or 16 games in each of those years and peaking with a Grand Final appearance in 2022. They didn’t acquit themselves particularly well in that Grand Final against a far superior Panthers side, but a Grand Final appearance is nothing to sneeze at. Unfortunately, a tough start to last year proved too much for them to climb back from and they ended up just missing out on the finals with a 12-12 record, but given where this team has been the past few years they seem like pretty good value to return to the finals at $3.00. They have a lot of stability on field owing to a pretty quiet off-season and started the year pretty well with a couple of good wins and a competitive showing against the Panthers in their first three weeks. Unfortunately, a Mitchell Moses injury saw them slump in the fortnight since, losing first to the Tigers and then getting thumped by the Raiders, and their finals odds blew out as a result. But Moses will return in a few weeks, and though he isn’t the be all and end all he does have a significant say on their fortunes. When he returns they should be a much better side, and while they won’t likely find themselves in the mix for the top four, they will likely be nestled in amongst a host of sides fighting for the lower spots in the top eight. At $3 to make it, they look like pretty decent value. 

• What brings them here? Last year was the first since 2018 since the Eels missed the top eight, and it was only a couple of short years ago that they finished in the top four and made their way through to the Grand Final. 
• What has changed? The Eels had a reasonably quiet off-season. Jack Murchie and Waqa Blake headed overseas while Andrew Davey and Josh Hodgson retired, and their acquisitions were a Manly pair in Morgan Harper and Kelma Tuilagi.  
• Injury update: As mentioned, Moses is the biggest injury concern for the Eels, and is due back in Round 12 from a foot injury. Haza Dunster also has a foot injury that will keep him unavailable for a month or two longer than that, Arthur Miller-Stephen is out for the season with a knee, Toni Mataele’s hamstring will see him unavailable till Round 11, while Matt Doorey should be back from a facial fracture in about Round 10.

Bet on the Eels to make the finals at $3.00 with PlayUp

This was supposed to be the season in which the Bulldogs, at long, long last, made some progress, having not played finals footy since 2016 and not winning more than seven games in a single season for the past four years. But their start to season number two under coach Cameron Ciraldo didn’t start particularly well, with consecutive thumping defeats to first the Eels and then the Sharks. Adding to their woes was a really extensive injury list, but in the weeks following those opening two rounds the Bulldogs were actually pretty solid, particularly given their injury concerns. In Round 3 they smashed the hapless Titans 32-0 in a game that would have given them a big confidence boost, before they fell just short of beating the Rabbitohs the following week and then very impressively knocked off the Roosters in a high-scoring affair. That game against the Roosters showcased the best and the worst of this team; they dominated the first half to lead 26-0 before melting down, but just managed to hang on for a four-point win. They are understandably at long odds to play finals and may well still be a year or two off, but they have made plenty of changes since Ciraldo joined and this list is now by and large his own. A number of those changes have been pretty significant ones, with some experienced names joining a previously pretty young list, and the likes of Stephen Crichton and Jaeman Salmon bring not just experience, but Premiership experience. Injuries have cruelled them early in the season but they have weathered the storm pretty well, and when those players start filtering back in this team could be pretty competitive. It’s a long shot, but it’s certainly not out of the realms of possibility that this team goes close to playing finals this year. 

• What brings them here? The Bulldogs have been nowhere near it for a number of years now, but they have brought in a bunch of quality players in the off-season and could be set for a year of significant improvement. 
• What has changed? A whole lot. They lost a bunch of players including Jake Averillo, Corey Waddell, Kyle Flanagan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Paul Alamoti, but among their raft of ins were Stephen Crichton and Jaeman Salmon from the Panthers, Blake Taaffe and Daniel Sufuka-Fifita from the Rabbitohs, Kurt Mann from the Knights and Jake Turpin and Drew Hutchison from the Roosters. 
• Injury update: This is a long one. Karl Oloapu is out indefinitely with a neck injury, while all of Max King, Kurt Mann, Blake Taaffe, Harrison Edwards and Blake Wilson have injuries whose timelines are yet to be determined. Daniel Sufuka-Fifita is expected to be out until Round 12 with a knee injury, Jacob Preston till Round 9 with a jaw, and Kurt Morrin becomes available from suspension in Round 7. 

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the finals at $5.50 with PlayUp

There are a number of ways to approach this. The Storm look like a really safe bet even at short odds, and could be a good anchor for a multi at $1.22. They’ll likely shorten as the season goes on, so jumping on them isn’t the worst option. At a little better value, however, the Rabbitohs are the kind of team whose season could go in almost any direction. Touted as a Premiership favourite coming into the season, they have been plagued by all sorts of issues and have been playing terribly, but there is no denying that this team is still more than capable of playing finals and even doing some damage once there. They need to display a massive turnaround in form after a dreadful start to the season, but they are the most talented team on this list outside of the Storm and are more than capable of turning things around.