The NBA regular season is nearing its end and the playoffs are just around the corner, but there are still two long months, four Play-In Tournament games and 15 best-of-seven series to be played before the 2024 NBA champion is decided. The Celtics and the Nuggets have established themselves as the clear favourites to win each conference while the Clippers and the Thunder are their standout primary contenders – at least according to NBA betting sites – but there are plenty of teams who would bristle at the suggestion that they aren’t legitimate contenders, not least the Thunder and Timberwolves, each of whom is in the race for the number one seed in the West up to their eyeballs. On this page, we will take a look at the chances of the eight favourites to win the NBA championship.
NBA Championship Favourites
Boston Celtics ($3.00)
The Celtics have been the championship favourites, or close to it, for most of the season, and nothing they have done so far suggests there is any reason to doubt their ability to go all the way. This is the best five-man starting line-up in the league and one of the best we have seen in recent memory, with every one of their starters theoretically capable of playing at close to an All-Star level. The quality of this team is best evidenced by trying to decide which is the weakest link in that starting line-up. It could be Jrue Holiday, who is perhaps the best on-ball defender in the league and a 2x All-Star. It could be Derrick White, who is having the best season of his career, was last year named to the All-Defensive Second Team and who is shooting over 40% from deep while averaging around 15-5-5 this season. Some days it could even be Kristaps Porzingis, a 7’3” potential star on both ends of the floor who is also capable of looking like the best player in any game in which he plays. Rounded out with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, this is an incredible well-rounded starting unit, and with Al Horford, the improved Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser coming off the bench, there are very few weaknesses to this team. They have been dominant all season long and will end the regular season with around 65 wins, giving them probably a more than ten-game lead atop the Eastern Conference and comfortably the best record in the league. They are clearly the best team in the East and alongside the Nuggets, the best team in the NBA, and while that doesn’t always translate to a title, it puts them in with a pretty damn good shot.
What brings them here? The Celtics have been in the mix for years, but the addition of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday has taken them up another level.
What could hold them back? There aren’t too many obvious concerns about this team heading into the playoffs. Tatum and Brown have been deep into the playoffs a few times and not been able to go all the way, but they now have plenty of experience and complemented by other guys who have been there before, namely Jrue Holiday, a lack of title experience shouldn’t be too big an issue.
Injury report. Making things even better for the Celtics is a very clean bill of health, with all of their rotation guys fit and healthy nearing the postseason.
Bet on the Boston Celtics to win the Championship @ $3.00 with PlayUp
Denver Nuggets ($4.00)
The Nuggets came into this season with virtually exactly the same team that won them their inaugural championship in 2023, with Bruce Brown the only notable absentee. With the same starting five led by Nikola Jokic, they were always going to be a threat if healthy, and though Jamal Murray has been in and out they have established themselves as the favourite to advance out of the Western Conference and into a second consecutive NBA Finals. With a few games to go in the regular season they find themselves mired in a three-team battle for the number one seed, though regardless of where they finish they will need to beat numerous good teams to make their way through the postseason. Whether they finish first, second or third in the West, they could be facing anyone from the Suns to the Lakers, and it won’t get any easier as they advance through the rounds. But along with the Celtics, this is the most well-drilled team in the league. They have been systematically tearing teams apart for years now, and while Jokic is the head of the snake, Murray is a legitimate star capable of elevating his game in the playoffs, and the rest of their team know their roles to a tee and can execute them with their eyes closed. Though they could face a number of different teams regardless of which position they finish in, they will benefit from home court advantage early in the playoffs and will be eager to finish as high as possible to maintain that advantage throughout the postseason; something which is particularly significant for them given how dominant they have been on their home court for a couple of years now. Beating the Nuggets in any seven-game series won’t be easy for any team, and it will be made that much harder if they have to play four of those games in Denver. But regardless of where they finish, the Nuggets will be the favourites to win every series they play in the West. A Celtics-Nuggets NBA Finals is comfortably the most fancied outcome as we near the playoffs, and though they won’t have home court in that as a result of the Celtics’ excellent record, the Nuggets will be mighty tough to stop on their quest for a second consecutive title.
What brings them here? Nikola Jokic transforms this team from a solid one into a great one, but his supporting cast, most notably Jamal Murray, are all very good players in their own right.
What could hold them back? The Nuggets are clearly good enough to win the championship, but there are a lot of good teams in the NBA, particularly in the West. They’ll have to beat three good teams to get out of the Western Conference, and if they make the NBA Finals will very possibly be taking on a quality Celtics team.
Injury report. There have been a few injury clouds over the Nuggets starters and Murray in particular has missed a lot of games this season, but none of them have injuries which will keep them off the floor in the postseason.
Bet on the Denver Nuggets to win the Championship @ $4.00 with PlayUp
Los Angeles Clippers ($6.50)
After receiving plenty of criticism following a slow start to life with James Harden, the Clippers turned things around late last year and since then have developed into a legitimate championship threat. With the roster that they have, that’s no great surprise; though their stars are aging, there are plenty of them and most of them are still pretty damn good. Kawhi Leonard is humming along as he has for years, James Harden has has an underratedly good season in a reduced role, Paul George can be the best player on the floor on any given night while Russell Westbrook has provided valuable punch off the bench. In case you’re not keeping count, that is three former MVPs and one third-place finisher, and when you add Norman Powell to the mix as well as a couple of other nice pieces like the improved Ivica Zubac and Terrance Mann, you’ve got a really, really good team. But while they do have a very high ceiling, the Clippers came out of the blocks slowly after the All-Star break and have struggled to recapture their best form since then. At the time of writing their record is just 11-11 over the now almost-two-month period since that break, with a defensive rating of 118.0 in that time – the third worst in the league – particular cause for concern. That poor form has seen them tumble out of contention for one of the top three seeds in the Western Conference, and even hanging on to home court advantage in the First Round has been brought into question. With a few games to go they are still in the box seat to hang onto that spot, but even if they do they’ll likely have a couple of series in which they’ll have to win on the road to keep their season alive. With their talent, however, they are more than capable of doing that. The fact that their odds have remained as short as they are despite such an extended period of indifferent form is indicative of the talent of this team and their potential when things go their way. They remain far and away the second most fancied team to win the Western Conference, but they will want to turn around their form quickly if they’re to justify those odds.
What brings them here? The Clippers have all the talent in the world, and when it all comes together they are an extremely good team.
What could hold them back? Their current form is increasingly cause for concern the longer it lasts, and having now been a .500 team for a couple of months, tongues will start to wag more and more about their ability to recapture their best in the playoffs if they don’t turn it around quickly.
Injury report. A Kawhi Leonard knee injury on the eve of the playoffs has seen him miss at least a couple of games, but it’s not a long-termer and he should be good to go by the postseason.
Bet on the Los Angeles Clippers to win the Championship @ $6.50 with PlayUp
Milwaukee Bucks ($8.00)
It’s been a strange old season for the Bucks. It was never going to be particularly easy to ingrain a player of Damian Lillard’s calibre to a developed and experienced squad, but in second place with just a few games to go in the regular season they have done a reasonable job of it. Despite a solid record, however, there has been a fair bit of tumult throughout the course of the season. Though they’re a really good team at their best they have struggled to string that together for really extended periods of the season, and an 18-20 road record has been the main reason for their lack of consistency. They’ve also had a coaching change, with AJ Griffin being given his marching orders halfway through the season despite what was a pretty good record at that point in time, and Doc Rivers taking over. A good indication of the problems which have plagued the Bucks has been their last couple of games up until the time of writing. With second spot theirs for the taking and the Wizards and Grizzlies ahead of them, the Bucks could have all but wrapped up that spot with a couple of wins. Instead, they went down to both those teams, who combined have won less games than the Bucks all season. They’re still well placed to finish in second, but if they are going to do any damage in the playoffs they need to find a way to perform at their best on a nightly basis, and particularly on the road. Admittedly Lillard missed both of those two games, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez playing each of them and Khris Middleton playing one, they shouldn’t have been losing either of them. A top four of Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Lopez means that the Bucks are a really dangerous team, and on talent alone they are clearly the biggest threat to the Celtics to come out of the Eastern Conference. But they have some serious work to do to achieve that. The Celtics have been far more reliable than the Bucks all season and if they do meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston will be comfortable favourites. But the Bucks have a very high ceiling. They won’t be favoured but they’re capable of challenging every team in the East, and if they get past the Celtics they can certainly get past whoever they would face in the Finals. This is the second best team in the Eastern Conference, but they need to play a lot better than they have been of late if they are to go deep into the playoffs.
What brings them here? With Antetokounmpo running the show the Bucks have long been a championship threat, and with Lillard there now too that is the case again this year – if they can bring it all together at the right time of the season.
What could hold them back? An inability to play at their best all the time, particularly on the road, has plagued the Bucks all season. They’ll still probably grab the number two seed, but against teams like the Celtics they can’t afford to be too far off their best.
Injury report. Lillard has been dealing with a groin injury in the lead-up to the playoffs while Antetokounmpo has a hamstring injury, but both are expected to be fine by the postseason.
Bet on the Los Angeles Clippers to win the Championship @ $8.00 with PlayUp
NBA Championship Spicy Contenders
Oklahoma City Thunder ($21.00)
No doubt if you asked those within the Thunder organisation themselves, they would consider themselves anything but a ‘spicy contender’. They have been one of the best teams all season long, having not budged from the top three in the Western Conference throughout, and with just a few games to go they remain right in the mix to finish on top of that stacked conference. Having won only 24 games just two seasons ago, they are on track to win close to 60 in 2023-24, led by the MVP-level campaign of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and two players likely to round out a lethal trio for many years to come in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Indicative of their ability is the fact that Josh Giddey has fallen significantly down the pecking order this season despite his obvious talent, and in the lead-up to the playoffs he has forced his minutes back up with an elite stretch of form. With a host of first round draft picks still to come they are probably in the best position of any franchise in the league at the moment, but it’s not only their future which is bright. They are here already, and have well and truly established themselves as a team capable of beating virtually anyone in the league. But despite all that, betting agencies have them a long way behind the above four teams. That’s certainly not a reflection of the way that they have played this season, but rather the undeniable fact that they are very, very young, and have virtually no playoff experience in their team. How they respond to the bright lights of the postseason remains to be seen, but the players which have led them up the Western Conference standings this season don’t exactly seem like the type to falter under pressure. This team could easily surprise everyone by continuing to play the way they have all season and cause some serious damage in the playoffs, but equally, given the quality of teams they will have to face right off the bat in the West it would be no surprise to see them bundled out in the First Round by any of the teams they could play, which includes the Suns, Lakers and Mavericks. As with every team in the West, the Thunder will have a really difficult path to even make their way through their own Conference, let alone win the championship, and with their youth they have automatically fallen a little way down the pecking order. But underestimate this team at your own peril. There is every chance they end up being a much more legitimate title threat in the years to come, but they are very capable of going deep in 2024.
What brings them here? The Thunder have well and truly exceeded expectations this season, with their very talented young roster developing a lot quicker than many expected and Gilgeous-Alexander establishing himself as one of the best in the business.
What could hold them back? Inexperience and youth. Gilgeous-Alexander is the veteran of this team’s core, and he is only 25 years old. Against seasoned rosters like the Nuggets and Suns, that could prove pivotal.
Injury report. Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have missed games late in the season due to injuries, but none of them are long-termers.
Bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Championship @ $21.00 with PlayUp
Dallas Mavericks ($26.00)
Entering this season, the Mavericks loomed very much as a two-man team. A back court consisting of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving could hardly be more talented, but outside of those two there was a pretty hefty drop. With Irving missing a large chunk of the first half of the season they could have been forgiven for struggling a little, but courtesy of Doncic’s extraordinary season they remained right in the playoff mix. Now, with Irving back and a couple of valuable additions in the trade period, they’ve put themselves in a great position to finish inside the top six and potentially even fourth. Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington have been those additions and the former in particular has exceeded expectations, joining rookie Dereck Lively II to form a surprisingly decent one-two punch at center. But for all the value their lesser lights have provided, this is a team based around its back court, and if they manage to cause any damage in the playoffs it will be on the back of Doncic and Irving. As an overall team, the Mavericks still aren’t nearly as well-rounded as some they will have to beat in order to win this year’s championship, namely the Nuggets and the Celtics. But there is no denying just how dangerous Doncic and Irving are. The former is averaging close to a 35-point triple-double all season with some pretty efficient numbers, stats which speak for themselves, while Irving is as talented as any player in the league and has produced before at the pointy end of the season. With less depth on their roster than other contenders they have their work cut out and would be a surprise winner, but Doncic and Irving will provide some serious headaches for whoever they play in the postseason.
What brings them here? Doncic and Irving. That’s perhaps disrespectful to the rest of their roster and as mentioned, there are a number of players who have outperformed their expectations, but it’s their back court which has got them into the position in which they currently find themselves.
What could hold them back? The gap between their second best player and their third best player. Quite a few teams are structured like that, but right at the top end the contenders have more depth, and that may well be exposed in the postseason.
Injury report. Dereck Lively II will miss around two weeks in the early parts of April, while Josh Green has missed a few weeks in the lead up to the playoffs with an ankle.
Bet on the Dallas Mavericks to win the Championship @ $26.00 with GetSetBet
Phoenix Suns ($23.00)
The Suns haven’t quite had the season that they would have hoped for, but they are still likely to make the playoffs, where they will be a side nobody will be particularly keen to play. When Kevin Durant joined them late last season, he formed a formidable duo alongside Devin Booker which ended the year in some lethal form. Adding Bradley Beal in the offseason gave them a trio which was arguably as talented as any in the league, certainly from an offensive perspective. But throughout the course of this season, they have failed to develop into a team which is as good as the sum of its parts. Early in the season injuries were to blame, with the three of them barely sharing the floor together over the first few months. Predominantly Beal was the injured one, though Durant and Booker both spent time away from the court too. But those three have now been by and large healthy for an extended period of time, and while the Suns have looked decent at times, they haven’t got close to the level that many expected of them. Often they have looked like three stars taking it in turns to look to score, rather than the cohesive unit which championship sides typically resemble. With just a few games left in the regular season, the way their season pans out is still very much in the air. They could quite easily finish fifth but equally aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot. If they do get there, which is likely, they’ll have to beat a number of tough teams to get out of the West, and the way they have played most of the season they would struggle in a seven-game series against many of those. But the talent on this team means that even if they haven’t always shown it, they are a really dangerous prospect in a seven-game series. A championship looks a long way away at this point in time, but the talent is there.
What brings them here? A huge amount of talent. Though they haven’t always clicked perfectly as a unit, the offensive ability of this side is undeniable.
What could hold them back? The fact that throughout most of this season, they haven’t been all that good of a team. The sum of all their parts is very high, but they have to find a way to play at that level or they’ll be sent packing pretty quickly in the postseason.
Injury report. After struggling so much with injuries this season, the Suns’ star trio is nice and healthy heading into the playoffs. Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic have nagging issues but they aren’t long term.
Bet on the Phoenix Suns to win the Championship @ $23.00 with PlayUp
Minnesota Timberwolves ($31.00)
It’s testament to the number of quality teams in the league that the Minnesota Timberwolves, who could very easily finish on top of the Western Conference and with the second best record in the NBA come the end of the season, find themselves this far down the championship pecking order. They’ve been a hell of a lot better than anybody expected this season, and that has been founded on something that generally holds up pretty well in the playoffs; defence. They have been the best defensive team in the league all season and by some margin, with a defensive rating of 107.8 which is nearly three points better than any other team. In fact, the difference between their defensive rating and that of the Magic, who are in second in that category, is greater than that between the Magic and the Nuggets in tenth. The standout defensive season of Rudy Gobert, who will almost certainly win Defensive Player of the Year once again, has seen him anchor that defence, but he’s far from alone. At the other end of the floor, Anthony Edwards has taken on the role of the best player on one of the best teams in the league at the age of just 22, and unsurprisingly it doesn’t appear to have bothered him in the slightest. He has had the best season of his career to date, and will need to carry that and then some through to the playoffs for them to be competitive against the best of the best. The defence of this team will almost certainly hold up in the postseason, but other teams will lock down more than they have in the regular season too. Their main concern will be whether or not they can put enough points on the board at the other end of the floor, but having had what will eventually be a near 60-win regular season, they are certainly not the worst value on the board to win the championship.
What brings them here? An elite defence. Offensively the Timberwolves are solid but not outstanding, but at the other end of the floor they are the most stifling defence in the league by some margin.
What could hold them back? A lack of offensive firepower. Anthony Edwards is a star and Karl-Anthony Towns, once he returns, will provide a pivotal second option, but they don’t have the offensive options available to them as many other competitors.
Injury report. Karl-Anthony Towns has missed an extended part of the latter stages of the regular season with a meniscus injury, but he will return by the playoffs and potentially even a couple of games before.
Bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves to win the Championship @ $31.00 with PlayUp
