AFL 2023 Grand Final – Betting tips & Predictions

By: James Salmon
30/09/2023
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Grand Final
AFL 2023 Grand Final

In what was a unique set of Preliminary Final matchups, the Giants and the Blues – who had come from the clouds to even be there – both went agonisingly close to making an unexpected appearance in the Grand Final, the Giants going down by just a point and the Blues losing after opening up a five-goal lead early. The result is that the two best teams in the league will play off for Premiership glory this Saturday under what is expected to be a blistering Melbournian sun, and while the Giants and Blues’ stories were enthralling, this is probably the best quality matchup we could have hoped for. Let’s take an in-depth look at what to expect on the big day as the two teams which competed in back to back Grand Finals 20 years ago go at it again.

AFL Grand Final Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Magpies vs LionsSaturday, September 30 at 2.30pm$1.75$2.10

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions

After all of the storylines that swept up the AFL world throughout the finals – of the straight sets exits of the Demons and the Power, the remarkable turnarounds of the Giants and the Blues – it’s the two teams that finished the season in the top two and subsequently earned themselves home Qualifying Finals that have made it through to the big dance. For weeks the Magpies and Lions have looked like the best two chances to make the Grand Final – the Magpies as a product of being the best team all season, and the Lions having locked up a home Qualifying Final and subsequently a home Preliminary Final having not lost at the Gabba all season long. And though neither of them made it here without a hiccup, make it here they did, and on Saturday will have the opportunity to etch themselves into the annals of AFL history.

The Magpies, over the past two years, have demonstrated a remarkable ability to win close games. Last year, that tendency was turned on its head in the finals when they lost two games by under a kick to be eliminated in the prelim, but this year they were able to replicate it when it matters most. In the Qualifying Final they saw off a rampaging Demons team late to win by seven points, while it went as close as it can get in the Preliminary Final. The hugely impressive Giants could very easily have snatched victory last Friday night, but when the final siren sounded the Magpies had a one-point lead, marking their eighth game of the season which has been decided by a single-figure margin – they’ve won seven of them. 

The Lions have been a little more clinical in their route to the Grand Final, though that certainly didn’t look like being the case at quarter time of their Preliminary Final against the Blues. Having knocked off Port Adelaide with relative ease in the Qualifying Final to continue their unbeaten run at home and set up the prelim against Carlton, the Lions had it all in front of them but faltered early, conceding the first five goals against perhaps the most in-form team in the competition. At that early stage it looked like being yet another failed opportunity for the Lions, but they turned that game on its head from quarter time onwards, dominating their opposition and looking like the inevitable winner even as they remained in arrears on the scoreboard. Eventually they jumped out to a comfortable lead in the last, and though Carlton fought back with a couple of late goals the Lions never looked too troubled in that final quarter. 

On a neutral venue this would probably be virtually a 50/50 game, but the Magpies, of course, have the luxury of playing the Grand Final on their home ground, where the Lions, incidentally, have a woeful record for an extended period of time. They’ve won just one of their last 15 games harking back to 2015 at the home of football, while going back even further they’ve won three of 27 since 2009. That doesn’t bode particularly well, but as they’ll tell you, this incarnation of the Brisbane Lions has little to do with the side that lost to – as it were – Collingwood back in Round 18, 2009. There’s no denying that they’ve been poor there as recently as this year, with a disappointing loss to the Hawks in their first of two 2023 games there to date, but in the second they lost by just a point to the Demons in a game that they led relatively comfortably, only to be overcome late. Perhaps that points to a psychological issue they have playing there, but equally it demonstrates that they’re more than able to play good footy in Melbourne. As Dayne Zorko said, they’re not playing the MCG, they’re playing the Magpies. 

And what a game it looks like being. Both of these teams play an exciting and typically high scoring game style, even if that wasn’t the case last week, and on what looms as a hot, sunny day in Melbourne, expect a contested game which will open up in the second half as the players tire. The heat should, if anything, make the Lions feel more at home. There’s no doubt that their record at the MCG is a concern, but there is a steely resolve about this version of the team. For the first time since the last of their three consecutive Premierships back in 2003 – of which Collingwood coach Craig McRae was a part – they can bring a flag home with them to Brisbane.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions to win$2.10
Norm Smith Medal Winner – Josh Dunkley$11.00

Lions +4.5

$1.87

Predicted Squads

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: N Murphy, D Moore, I Quaynor  HB: B Maynard, S Pendlebury, J Howe C: S Sidebottom, J De Goey, J Daicos
 HF: B Hill, B Mihocek, P Lipinski F: J Elliott, M. Cox, W Hoskin-Elliott  FOLL: D Cameron, N Daicos, J Crisp I/C: T Mitchell, J Ginnivan, B McCreery, O Markov

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B Starcevich, H Andrews, J Payne HB: C McKenna, R Lester, K Coleman C: H McCluggage, J Dunkley, D Zorko HF: C Cameron, E Hipwood, Z Bailey F: C Rayner, J Daniher, C Ah Chee FOLL: O McInerney, L Neale, J Berry I/C: D Robertson, L McCarthy, J Fletcher, D Wilmot

  • Combine 3 tips and mention their odds (all from PlayUp)
  • Mention the accumulated payout (For example: Bet $100 for $1255 with PlayUp)
  • You can use tips you mentioned in the text or use others. Either way is fine 

Multi of the Week

LegsOdds

Broncos -1.5

$1.77
Over 41.5 Points$1.90
First Try Scorer – Reynolds$8.75
Bet  $100 for $1354 with PlayUp
playup-review
Join PlayUp Today
Bet Now

Your Full Sports Betting Experience at BettingTop10

At BettingTop10, we’ve got all of your AFL betting needs covered. If you’re looking for the best AFL betting sites, then take a look at our detailed bookmaker reviews to find the one that suits you. And if you’re after a great mobile betting site for your AFL punting, our list of the best betting apps can help you out there.

What’s more, if you’re after some help in areas other than AFL, we can help you out there too. We’ve got pages about NRL, basketball, horse racing and more, so whatever your sports betting need, we at BettingTop10 can help you out.

#
Betting Site
Promotion
Bet Now
1
Best App
playup-betting-site
PlayUp
5.0
Best Fixed Odds, Playup Playbook
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Best Handicap
2
draftstars-Betting Site
Draftstars
5.0
Daily Fantasy owned by Playup!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Fantasy Sports
3
New Pick
betright-logo-betting-site
BetRight
4.9
Highly competitive betting odds
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Bet Right Discord
4
PUNTERS' FAVORITE
dabble-logo-betting-sites
Dabble
4.8
A new way of betting on Racing and Sports
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Copy Bets & Follow other punters
5
SPORTS PICK
bet365-logo-betting-sites
Bet365
4.8
Most well known bookmaker – always a solid experience
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Best Bet Builder
6
New Pick
questbet-logo-betting-sites
QuestBet
4.7
Fun new Australian sportsbook.
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Solid Mobile App
7
elitebet-logo-betting-sites
EliteBet
4.7
Diverse options for Aussie racing and international sports
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Regular money-back specials
8
Best for Greyhound
chasebet-logo-betting-sites
Chasebet
4.6
Comprehensive greyhound betting experience
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Trending Bets
9
NEW
betgalaxy-logo-betting-sites
Betgalaxy
4.6
Offers competitive odds
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Fun betting experience
10
wellbet-logo-betting-sites
WellBet
4.6
Crisp Layout, Focus on Aussie Racing
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Simple, Localised Betting
11
boombet logo betting site
BoomBet
4.5
Great features coupled with amazing odds! Sets their own odds!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Great Customer Service
12
volcanobet-logo-betting-site
Volcanobet
4.5
Slick app, global sports coverage
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Fresh betting platform
13
HOT
puntgenie logo-betting-sites
PuntGenie
4.5
Innovative Layout and Fresh Betting Approach.
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Revolutionary Betting Interface
14
Popular Choice
puntnow-logo-betting-sites
PuntNow
4.4
Australia's Newest Bookie with Great Racing Promos
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
competitive odds
15
juicybet logo-betting-site
JuicyBet
4.4
User-friendly layout and vibrant animations
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Swift sign-up process
16
Best For Racing
vicbet-logo-betting-site
VicBet
4.4
New and improved website with a mobile app
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Racing specialists
17
betroyale-logo-betting-sites
BetRoyale
4.4
Competitive odds, impressive website layout.
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Sleek Design
18
winnersbet-logo-betting-sites
WinnersBet
4.3
Great points feature! Lovely Layout.
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Daily Promotions
19
Best For Racing
midasbet logo-betting-site
MidasBet
4.3
New Modern Bookmaker with a racing focus
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Opening Specials
20
BetProfessor Betting Site
BetProfessor
4.3
Australian-owned, strong soccer market coverage
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Slick app
21
goldenrush Betting Site
GoldenRush
4.3
Swift sign-up, standout racing odds
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Top Bonuses
22
unibet-logo-betting-site
Unibet Australia
4.3
Unibet Blog, for sport game information!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Bet Share
23
sterling-parker-Betting Site
SterlingParker
4.2
Competitive odds for racing and sports
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Quality software & layout
24
junglebet Betting Site
JungleBet
4.2
Same game multis for sports betting
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Refreshing website theme
25
getsetbet logo-betting-site
GetSetBet
4.2
Fun and exciting markets!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
GetSetBet TV
26
puntcity Betting Site
PuntCity
4.1
Racing insights with comments
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Same game multis available
27
Best for e-Sports
picklebet-Betting Site
Picklebet
4.0
E-sports focus with great odds!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Engaging App
28
topsport-white
TopSport
4.0
Extensive range of markets with fair limits
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
High betting limits
29
Best App
bluebet Betting Site
BlueBet
4.0
Bluey’s Best Bets!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Same Race & Game Multis
30
real-bookie Betting Site
RealBookie
3.5
Great for serious punters!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Regular Offers
31
palmerbet-Betting Site
Palmerbet
3.0
Australian operated and owned
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Great Promotions
32
Best for Greyhound
betdogs-white Betting Site
BetDogs
3.0
Specialised greyhound bookie, backed by Topsport!
australian-flag-icon-round-32x32.webp
AUS Licensed
Great betting odds
33
Betfocus
0.0
Great new Australian sportsbook!

AFL Ladder

PosTeamPldPtsForm
1Crows
2Lions
3Blues
4Magpies
5Essendon
6Dockers
7Cats
8Suns
9Giants
10Hawthorn
11Kangaroos
12Demons
13Power
14Tigers
15Saints
16Swans
17Eagles
18Bulldogs