NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 2

Every team in the NBA has now played three or four games, and after a relatively quiet Wednesday (Australian time) of games which saw just three matchups, Thursday will be quite the opposite. No less than 13 games will take place over the course of the day, meaning that 26 of the league’s 30 teams will play. That, of course, means that there is plenty of opportunity to find value, so let’s dive right in and take a look at the best bets for Thursday, November 2 AEDT. 

Under 231.5 total match points | $1.90 @ PlayUp

To put it simply, the points total for this game has been set too high. A line of 231.5 is to some extent a product of the Pacers’ high scoring start to the season which saw their first two games yield 263 and then 238 points, but while they do look like playing a relatively high octane game style this season, they certainly won’t continue at that rate and a 217-point game against the Bulls was likely a regression to the norm. The Celtics, meanwhile, hovered at around this number in their last two games after a low-scoring season-opener, but their average throughout the season will likely be a fair bit lower. This is a defensive-minded team which last season was second in the league for defensive rating, and while they lost Marcus Smart they gained perhaps the best perimeter defender in the league in Jrue Holiday as well as an imposing rim protector in Kristaps Porzingis. The line for this could easily be ten points higher, and this feels like an overadjustment based on the first couple of games of the season by the bookies. 

Hornets to win outright | $2.10 @ BlueBet 

The Hornets have had a little bit of a topsy turvy start to the season, winning their first game impressively against the Hawks before losing two games in a row by double figure margins to the Pistons and the Nets. But despite those losses, there is plenty to like about this team and they should be an improver this season. The Rockets, too, have a lot of young talent and will be hoping to take a step forward this year, but they are well behind the Hornets in their development, with guys like PJ Washington and Lamelo Ball more established cornerstones than the likes of Jalen Green and the intriguing Alperun Sengun. Though there is reason to have some optimism for the future for Rockets fans, they’re still going to lose a lot more games than they win this season – as they already have, having lost their first three. The Hornets will be the better team of these two this season, and though the game is in Houston, the visitors deserve to be favourites. 

Warriors -7.5 | $1.89 @ GetSetBet 

The Kings have enjoyed a solid start to the season with two wins from their first three games including an overtime defeat of the Lakers, but the unfortunate news that De’Aaron Fox is out indefinitely with a ‘moderate’ ankle sprain will hamper them for the next few games. Their first test without their star point guard will be a stern one; the Warriors have started this season a hell of a lot better than they did the last, with three consecutive wins following a tight season-opening loss to the Suns all coming by a larger margin than what the line is set at for this game. One of those wins, incidentally, was against the Kings, in Sacramento, and with Fox playing – they won that game 122-114. This time around, they get to return to the Chase Center and take on a Kings team which will need to significantly adjust the way they play without one half of their star tandem duo. This should also be a high scoring game which opens up a greater possibility for a bigger win, and adds further to my confidence that the Warriors will cover the 7.5-point line set by the bookies.