NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | June 10

The NBA Finals didn’t quite get off to the start that most – Celtics fans being the exception – would have hoped for, with a one-sided affair seeing the home side go up 1-0 in the best-of-seven series at TD Garden. It’s a long series and the Mavericks do, of course, have plenty of time to bounce back from what was a disappointing display, but they will need to find a huge amount of improvement to get near this incredibly well-rounded Celtics line-up based on Game 1’s effort. Their next chance to do so comes on Monday, Australia time, in the second leg of Boston’s opening home stand, and these are our best bets for that game. 

Over 214.5 total match points @ $1.89 | GetSetBet 

Maybe this is a stubborn bet, but there is good reason to think that Game 2 will see an uptick in scoring from what we saw in the series opener. We were on the over in that game and it went nowhere near it, the 107-89 scoreline totalling just 196 total match points when the line set by betting sites was the same as what it is for this game. But that scoreline is a little bit rogue based on what those sides have been delivering so far in the playoffs, in particular the Mavericks. Certainly the Celtics are a really talented defensive team, but the Timberwolves are the best in the business and Dallas managed to averaged over 110 points per game against them across their five-game series. It was a similar story against the Thunder, with the Mavs averaging about 108 per game against them. In Game 1 of this series, the Celtics were really good defensively and were particularly strong in defending their opponent’s ball movement – the Mavericks managed just nine assists, and Kyrie Irving was the only player with multiple dimes; and he only had two. But the Mavericks also went 12-19 at the free throw line and, even more importantly, couldn’t hit the side of a barn door from beyond the arc, Luka Doncic being the sole exception. They were 7-27 from long range, a rate of just 25.9%, and Doncic aside they were just 3-15. Three-point shooting is a really variable statistic and it’s unlikely that the Mavs will be as poor from long range in Game 2 as they were in its predecessor. The Celtics, meanwhile, were decent offensively but didn’t set the world on fire, with pretty standard percentages from the field and three-point range and also a few points left at the free throw line. With a bit of a regression to the mean in Game 2, this one can go over the points line. 

Boston Celtics -2.5 first quarter line @ $1.88 | BlueBet 

Unlike the previous bet, in which we are going back to the well despite missing out in Game 1, this bet is a matter of if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. There were a host of reasons that it looked likely that the Celtics would come out strongly in the first quarter against the Mavericks, and that is exactly how it transpired. They were dominant in the opening quarter of the NBA Finals, opening up a 17-point lead courtesy of a 37-point first quarter which really set them up for victory from the outset. That clearly well and truly exceeded the line set by NBA betting sites, and that line is once again at 2.5 for this game. Already heading into Game 1, the Celtics had been one of the league’s best first quarter teams, boasting a dominant offensive rating of 15.3 in that quarter, while the Mavericks had a negative first quarter net rating in the playoffs despite winning 12 of 17 games. Obviously after that first game, those numbers have only been accentuated. The Celtics net rating in the first quarter has skyrocketed up to 18.6 in the playoffs, meaning they outscore their opponents by 18.6 points per 100 possessions in the opening 12 minutes, while for the Mavericks it has gone down to -7.2. That is a stark differential, and while the Mavericks will obviously be keen to come out with a vengeance in Game 2, recent history suggests that they aren’t all that good of it, and with it being a clear strength of the Celtics, the home side can once again clear the first quarter line. 

Dallas Mavericks to win the third quarter @ 2.20 | PlayUp 

This might sound like a bit of an overly specific bet and maybe it is, but hear me out. This is based on the aforementioned expectation that the Celtics continue their first quarter dominance and are able to establish some ascendancy in both the opening quarter and subsequently the opening half. But it’s rare in NBA games in general for the trailing team not to stage a comeback at some point in the game, particularly if there is a hefty half time margin and particularly if the two teams are relatively evenly matched. The Celtics are the better overall team in this NBA Finals matchup, but the Mavericks are led by a couple of superstars in their backcourt and have been fantastic all playoffs long. If they are indeed trailing at half-time, it is hard to imagine them not finding a way to stage something of a fight in the back half of the game. Indeed, that is kind of how Game 1 panned out – the Mavericks didn’t really stage a comeback in the second half but they did at least stem the flow after going into the main break 21 points in arrears, and ultimately came out on top in the third quarter by a solitary point. If the Celtics do head into half time with a decent lead, as I expect them to, then the chances of Dallas winning the third quarter are probably a hell of a lot better than these better than even money odds would suggest. If the visitors come out of the blocks and open up their own half-time lead then this might be a little more unlikely a proposition, but based on the way I see this game likely playing out and at decent odds, this looks like a solid bet to kick off the second half.