NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 15

There is a large slate of NBA games this Wednesday, Australia time, with 20 of the 30 teams in the league hitting the court for ten matchups which will make up day three of the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament. With trends beginning to develop across the league, it’s getting a little easier to forecast outcomes, but that fact applies not only to punters but to bookies too. As a result the lines are beginning to tighten up, but we’ve found a couple of bets that look like good value across the course of the day regardless. 

Over 240.5 total match points |$1.90 @ PlayUp 

This is a bet based on one team, and one team only – the Indiana Pacers. This is a very high line, but their games have been absolute points fests almost without fail throughout the course of the season, and in recent games that has only been more the case. In total, seven of their 10 games this season have gone over this total, and two of those that haven’t have seen 237 and 238 points scored. Their last five games have cleared this total comfortably, with the lowest match total in that time 249. What’s more, they only played the 76ers a couple of days ago, and that game ended 137-126 for a total over 263 points. The Sixers haven’t been involved in nearly as many high scoring games, but the Pacers rapid pace of play means there are a lot more possessions no matter who they’re playing, and based on their recent matchups it seems more likely than not that this one will go over the 240.5 point match total, even if it is a high one. 

Nuggets -5.5 | $1.89 @ GetSetBet

Based on what we’ve seen recently, this line looks really low. Granted the Clippers have plenty of talent, but the quarter of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook and James Harden consists of players which a) are predominantly well past their prime, b) do not appear particularly well suited to play together and c) have not meshed at all well so far. There is every chance they will get better as they spend more time on the floor together – they certainly couldn’t get much worse – but so far since Harden’s arrival they’ve lost all four games, three of them by more than this line and all against teams nowhere near the talent of Denver. The Nuggets, despite a minor hiccup in the form of a loss to the hugely improved Rockets last game, have continued on their merry way this season, winning eight of their last ten including all six at home. That continues the trend from last season in which they went 34-7 on their home turf during the regular season. Denver in Denver is the hardest matchup in basketball, the Clippers are playing really badly, and this should be a comfortable win for the Nugs.  

Over 240.5 total match points | $1.90 @ BlueBet

Like with the Pacers vs 76ers game, this bet is primarily based on one team, and this time it’s the Mavericks. They’ve been the highest scoring team in the league behind the Pacers with 124.1 points per game, more than eight points more than any other team in the West, and they’ve been conceding plenty too, with oppositions managing an average of 117.6 points per game. Once again this is a high total, but they’re 6-4 against this total this season and have passed it three games in a row. Those games in which they’ve passed it include the last three, the last two of which have seen 270 and then 260 total points scored. The latter of those was their last game, which, incidentally, was against the Pelicans and resulted in their highest scoring game of the season. With plenty of very talented offensive players on the floor and a rapid pace instigated largely by the Mavericks, this one should be going over too.