NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets |May 29

It’s been an underwhelming pair of Conference Finals to date, with the Celtics wrapping up their series against the Pacers in four games on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Mavericks have the chance to do the same when they host the Timberwolves for Game 4 of a series that they currently lead 3-0. As with the Boston/Indiana series, this one certainly hasn’t been a completely one-sided series, with just 13 points separating the teams across the three games, but regardless of how close it has been, the final outcome has been the same each time and a second Conference Finals sweep looms as a result. So can the Mavericks seal the series and lock themselves into an NBA Finals matchup with the Celtics, or will the Timberwolves find a way to take things back to Minnesota? Take a look at our three best bets for the game below. 

Anthony Edwards under 27.5 points @ $1.84 | BlueBet 

I said the other day that it brings me no pleasure to bet on the Anthony Edwards under, but did it anyway and lo and behold, it came through. That only further solidifies this one. After his brilliant start to the playoffs, Edwards has significantly cooled down, and though he certainly hasn’t played badly he hasn’t been scoring with nearly the ease that he was earlier in the postseason. He was very good in Game 3 a couple of days ago with nine rebounds and nine assists, and he did nearly surpass his line, but still feel short with 26 points on 11-24 shooting. That made it six consecutive games in which he has failed to hit the line NBA betting sites have set him for this game, and eight of his past nine – a strike rate which is pretty hard to ignore. He did take more shots than he has been in most games in his latest outing with 24, and while we would prefer less than that number, he did still fall short despite being more offensively aggressive. What’s more, he was an important facilitator in that game, and hopefully in Game 7 he again focuses heavily on getting teammates involved and takes fewer shots as a result – something which also leads us to the next best bet of the day. But make it as complicated as you like; the stark reality is that Edwards hasn’t hit the 28-point mark at all in his past six and has just once in his past nine, and while he has got close a couple of times, he has also fallen significantly short more often than not. 

Anthony Edwards over 6.5 assists @ $1.92 | PlayUp 

Edwards has improved his passing year on year, upping his assist numbers from 2.9 in his debut season, to 3.8, then 4.4 and finally 5.1 this year. Clearly that is still significantly below this line set by betting sites, but in recent games an uptick in these numbers has accompanied the slowing of his scoring. In the postseason this season overall he has averaged 6.4 per game, right around his line for this game, but since partway through the Nuggets Conference Semi-Finals those numbers have been even better. In his past six games he has averaged 7.33 and passed the 6.5 number five times, while in his past four that is up to 7.75 and he has had at least seven in every game. He is really consistently creating a lot of good looks for his teammates, and despite his team’s struggles – at least in terms of end results – he has been facilitating as well as he ever has. This bet likely goes somewhat hand in hand with the first in that if Edwards is struggling from a scoring perspective then he will probably look to facilitate more, so this could easily be a case of either both of these two bets hitting or neither of them hitting. Based on recent form, however, both hitting looks a lot more likely. This also makes this a decent opportunity to create a same-game multi if your betting agency allows it, particularly given that, depending on which site you use, you might get a little boost in odds with the algorithm often viewing a player hitting the over in one category and the under in another as more unlikely than them hitting either the over or the under in both. The reason for this presumably is to do with game time – if a player plays more minutes they’re more likely to go over in both, and the opposite is true for less minutes. But we pretty much know that Edwards will play a little over 40 minutes barring a blowout – which seems unlikely – and there is a good chance that he will end up with seven or more assists, as he has been most games lately, and less than 28 points. 

Naz Reid over 12.5 points @ $1.80 | GetSetBet 

Naz Reid has had a terrific year off the bench for the Timberwolves, winning Sixth Man of the Year for the scoring punch he has provided his team off the bench. Overall he averaged 13.5 points per game in just 24.2 minutes, shooting 47.4% from the field and a very impressive 41.4% from long-range. His playoff production has been a little bit up and down courtesy in no small part due to the fluctuation in his minutes, and against the Nuggets in particular he wasn’t given quite the same opportunity as he has been previously, in the last five games failing to score more than 11 points at all and not playing more than 22 minutes in that time. Clearly, however, coach Chris Finch feels he is a much more important player in the Mavericks match up. He played 24 minutes in Game 1, while in the last two he has played 32 and 29 minutes, and unsurprisingly that has seen his statistical production rise significantly too. He has scored 15, 23 and 14 points across those three games, averaging over 17 per game and obviously surpassing his line set for this game every time. There is no reason to believe that Reid will not once again get close to 30 minutes in this game, given that he has played very well across the first three games of this series with increased opportunity. And it is not as though he has only been scoring as a product of unsustainable shooting – his 23-point effort in Game 2 did admittedly come on 7-9 shooting from long range, but last game he went just 1-5 from deep and still ended up with 14 points. All signs point to another solid game for Naz Reid as the Timberwolves attempt to stave off elimination for at least one more game.