NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets |May 31

Praise the lord, we avoided two sweeps in the Conference Finals. After the Celtics dealt with the Pacers in four games, the Mavericks had the chance to do the same on their home floor to the Timberwolves after winning the first three of that series in tight fashion. But in another close encounter, the visitors got the chocolates to send the series to a fifth game, which will take place back in Minnesota on Friday. Back on their home floor, the Wolves will enter that game as favourites, but having lost their first two home games against the Mavs in this series, can they reverse that trend to take this series to a Game 6? Full transparency, I don’t really know, so we’ll once again stick to player props for our three best bets of the day! Check them out below.

Luka Doncic to record a triple-double @ $4.50 | PlayUp 

We had a crack at this earlier in the series and it failed to get up, but Doncic has now had a triple-double in two of his last three games and NBA betting sites are still offering pretty juicy odds for him to do it in this game. Doncic will not often – well at least, not lately – get triple-doubles by huge margins, with one statistic at least usually right on 10 or 11. Equally, however, he doesn’t usually miss them by all that much, and of late he has been getting to them more often than not. Bearing that in mind and the fact that he is a nearly five to one chance to get there according to betting sites, this looks like a very good value bet. As mentioned he has hit it in two of his last three games, making it two of four this series for a 50% strike rate, but harking back further than that this bet looks even juicier. The Mavericks star had a triple double in the last three games of the Mavericks series against the Thunder, meaning that in his last seven games he has hit this five times at a rate of over 70%. Given these odds would suggest that he should be getting there just over 20% of the time, that looks like a massive edge in our favour. With the series on the line expect Doncic to, as usual, have the ball in his hands plenty and create plenty of assist opportunities, while at the other end of the floor, based on his 15 rebound effort last game, he should be chasing plenty of boards too. At $4.50, this looks like one of the better value bets of the day. 

Anthony Edwards over 6.5 assists @ $1.70 | BlueBet

Last game, we went for two Anthony Edwards bets – one for his assist over, and one for his points under, and they went very close to both hitting. Unfortunately he hit the over on his points with around 40 seconds to go in the game, but the assist bet hit pretty easily as he picked up nine of them for the second game in a row, falling a single dime short of a triple-double. The assists line set by betting agencies hasn’t officially changed, still sitting at 6.5, but there is now a whole lot of juice associated with it and you won’t get it at close to even money. Still, this looks like a good bet even at only $1.70. Edwards hasn’t been able to score with the proficiency that he was earlier in the playoffs for some time now, but he has offset that by demonstrating a huge uptick in his creation for teammates. As mentioned, he has dished out nine dimes in two consecutive games, but going back further than that, he has had at least seven assists – the number that he needs for this bet to hit – in five consecutive games and six of his last seven. In those last five games his average for assists has been eight, well over this number, and he’s been really consistent in getting to right around that number. The juice on this is certainly not ideal, but given how regularly he has been pushing closer to ten it's still a good bet. Given that he has often been around the seven or eight number, I much prefer this at $1.70 than I do the over 7.5 assists at better than even money that you can find with some betting sites. 

Mike Conley over 11.5 points @ $1.77 | GetSetBet 

Mike Conley is the most experienced player in this series, and it has shown so far. The 17-year veteran is a steadying hand for a Timberwolves team led by a 22-year-old, and not only is his presence out there a calming one, he has also been producing at a much higher rate than he has throughout the season in this series. During the regular season Conley averaged 11.4 points, right around his line in this game, but in his last three games he has seen a major uptick in production. He scored only six points in Game 1, but since then he has gone 18, 16 and 14, comfortably surpassing his points line on each of those occasions. And he has not done it on the back of anything particularly unsustainable; he has been shooting pretty well from outside, hitting seven of his 16 attempts in those games, but that impressive 43.8% is right around what he has averaged for two seasons now. As he always does he is taking what the opposition defence gives him, but he has been slightly more aggressive doing so, and that has seen him take an average of more than 11 shots per game during this three-game streak. Invariably as we go deeper into a series, there are players who excel and there are players who melt under the bright lights. Conley is certainly not going to do the latter. At his age he is not going to be taking over any games anytime soon, and he has never been one to do so anyway. But what he will do is contribute at a high level and provide a steadying hand in the face of enormous pressure for his young team. Expect him to once again be an important part of the Timberwolves’ attempt to close out this series in five games with another solid outing which should see him surpass the 12 points needed for this bet to hit.