AFL 2023 Round 19 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 19
AFL 2023 Round 19

Just six games remain in the season, but while the top four looks close to set in stone there are still up to 11 teams vying for the final few spots in the top eight. That means there is no shortage of huge games set to take place over the next few rounds, and this weekend has plenty of them. It kicks off with a pivotal game between the Bombers and the Bulldogs on Friday night, before the Lions take on the Cats the next day in a must-watch clash. It only gets better from there, with the second placed Power set to host the top of the table Magpies on Saturday night. The Giants and the Suns lock horns on Sunday before the Dees take on the Crows, rounding out a massive couple of days of footy. Check out our detailed previews below.

Round 19 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Bombers vs BulldogsFriday, July 21 at 7.50pm$2.25$1.65
Tigers vs HawksSaturday, July 22 at 1.45pm$1.35$3.25
Blues vs EaglesSaturday, July 22 at 2.10pm$1.01$15.00
Lions vs CatsSaturday, July 22 at 4.35pm$1.48$2.65
Dockers vs SwansSaturday, July 22 at 7.40pm$2.10$1.74
Power vs MagpiesSaturday, July 22 at 7.40pm$2.00$1.80
Giants vs SunsSunday, July 23 at 1.10pm$1.58$2.40
Demons vs CrowsSunday, July 23 at 3.20pm$1.36$3.15
Saints vs KangaroosSunday, July 23 at 4.40pm$1.15$5.50

Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs

With just two games separating fifth from 14th on the AFL ladder it’s safe to say that there is plenty of competition for spots in the top eight, and two teams caught right in the middle of the logjam will kick off Round 19 on Friday night. The Bombers have shown plenty of improvement in their first year under new coach Brad Scott, but three losses in their last four games, culminating in a heavy defeat at the hands of the Cats last weekend, have thrown their finals hopes into jeopardy. The Dogs, too, will be feeling a little less secure in their spot inside the top eight after losing their last two games, the first to Collingwood by just two goals and the second to the Swans by just two points. These two sides now sit side by side in seventh and eighth with a 9-8 record, making this a proverbial eight-point game in every sense of the word. Lose, and they could each theoretically fall as far as 13th. In contrast, the winner could potentially jump up to fifth, and possibly within a game of the top four. With plenty on the line this should be an enthralling and fast-paced game at Marvel Stadium, and in a game that could come down to the wire the Bombers look like the value pick.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Bombers to win$2.25
Over 170.5 total match points$1.91
Bombers +5.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: A.McGrath, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Laverde HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, D.Heppell C: N.Martin, Z.Merrett, S.Durham HF: K.Langford, S.Weideman, B.Hobbs F: M.Guelfi, P.Wright, J.Stringer FOLL: A. Phillips, D.Parish, A.Perkins I/C: J.Caldwell, W.Snelling, J.Kelly, J.Menzie

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: T.Duryea, R.Gardner, E. Richards HB: B.Dale, A.Keath, M. Hannan C: B. Smith, M.Bontempelli, B.Williams HF: J.Macrae, A.Naughton, A.Treloar F: C.Weightman, J.Ugle-Hagan, R. Lobb FOLL: T.English, C.Daniel, T.Liberatore I/C: L.Vandermeer, C. Poulter, R.West, A.Scott

Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks

The Tigers didn’t exactly set the world on fire against the Eagles last week, but they still got the job done comfortably to make it five wins in six games and put them within half a game of the top eight. This Saturday, they get a great chance to potentially jump inside that top eight against the Hawks. Hawthorn last week had a comfortable win of their own against the other cellar dweller in the Kangaroos, enjoying a rare victory in season 2023 after three consecutive losses. They have emerged as clearly the best of the terrible trio at the bottom of the AFL ladder, and at times this season have shown signs that there is reason to be optimistic about the future. They have put in a few surprising performances against better teams than they are, most recently when they beat the Lions by four goals at the MCG, so the Tigers can’t afford to take them as lightly as they were able to take the Eagles last weekend. If they play like that again then this game is far from a fait accompli, but with a spot in the top eight potentially on the line, Richmond should be able to do what they need to do and record a relatively straightforward win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Tigers to win$1.35
Tigers 25+$2.30
Tigers -18.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: N.Balta, D.Grimes, T.Young HB: D.Rioli, N.Broad, N.Vlastuin  C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross  HF: L.Baker, T.Cotchin, J.Graham  F: B.Miller, D.Martin, J.Riewoldt  FOLL: I.Soldo, D.Prestia, S.Bolton I/C: S.Banks, J.Hopper, M.Pickett, R. Mansell

Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawks: B: J.Impey, S.Frost, J.Weddle  HB: J.Sicily, B.Hardwick, W.Day  C: C.Nash, J.Newcombe, K.Amon  HF: D.Moore, F.Greene, C.Macdonald  F: C.Wingard, M.Lewis, T.Brockman  FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Ward, J.Worpel  I/C: L.Breust, J. Blanck1, F.Maginness, J.Scrimshaw

Carlton Blues vs West Coast Eagles

If ever there was an example of just how poor the Eagles have been this year, it’s the result the last time these two sides met. That was in the middle of a disastrous run from the Blues in which they lost eight out of nine games. Their solitary victory in that time came against the Eagles, in Perth no less, by 108 points. Fast forward a couple of months, and suddenly the Blues are playing like one of the best teams in the league and look like a great chance of earning themselves a spot in the top eight – something which seemed unfathomable a few short weeks ago. They’ve won their last three games by at least 50 points each, against first the Hawks, then the Dockers and finally an undermanned Power team last week. That doesn’t bode well for the Eagles, but with their lengthy injury list shortening a little in the past couple of weeks they are at least showing some signs of competitiveness. Three weeks ago they got within a couple of kicks of the Saints, while last week they lost by only (only being a relative term) 38 points to the Tigers. It’s worth noting that they lost the game in between by 81 points and the game prior to the Saints loss by 171, so the prospect of big losses is still well and truly on the agenda, and if anyone was going to hand them another one Carlton looks like the team to do it in their current form. Hopefully for the sake of Adam Simpson’s rapidly greying hair they can avoid another blowout, but the Blues will have no trouble notching up a fourth consecutive win. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Blues 40+$1.22
Blues 25+$1.10
Over 175.5 total match points$1.87

Predicted Squads

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, N.Newman HB: J.Boyd, M.McGovern, A.Saad C: B.Acres, P.Cripps, Z. Fisher HF: L.Fogarty, J. Silvagni, C. Durdin F: D.Cuningham, C. Curnow, J.Martin FOLL: T.De Koning, S. Walsh, S.Docherty I/C: A.Cincotta, G.Hewett, M.Cottrell, M. Pittonet

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: S.Hurn, T.Barrass, T.Cole HB: L.Duggan, J. Rothan, J.Hunt  C: E. Hewett, T.Kelly, B.Hough  HF: C.Chesser, J.Darling, J.Cripps  F: N.Long, O.Allen, J.Williams  FOLL: B.Williams, D.Sheed, L.Shuey  I/C: J. Petrucelle, S.Petrevski-Seton, R.Maric, A Witherden

  • The Lions haven’t lost a single game at home yet this year. Meanwhile, the Cats haven’t lost a single game by 40 points or more.
  • None of the Saints’ last five games have gone over their points total this week of 161.5. 
  • The Swans’ last three games have gone under their points total this week, while for the Dockers that number sits at five of their last seven. 

Multi of the Week

Lions to win by 1-39$2.25
Saints vs Kangaroos under 161.5 total match points$1.90
Swans vs Dockers under 165.5 total match points$1.90
Bet $10 for $81.23 with PlayUp

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats

Saturday twilight games aren’t often the best of the round, but this weekend it’s right up there. The Lions will be raring to go after a loss which they no doubt feel should not have happened last weekend, when they conceded a comfortable fourth quarter lead to go down by a point to the Demons. Had they won, they would have moved to within a game of the top two after the Power lost, but instead they’re two games back and just a game clear of fourth. They are still looking comfortable inside the top four, but that could all change with a loss this weekend. The Cats appear to be the only team capable of working their way into that top four after three wins and a draw in their past month, and while they’re still a fair way back, a win this weekend would see them move to within a game and a half of the Lions and probably the same distance behind the Demons. They are beginning to look a lot more like the side that won the flag last year, with their results in their past four weeks including an impressive win over the Cats and a shellacking of a generally competitive Bombers side last week, so the Lions will certainly be made to earn the four points this weekend. Fortunately for them, they return to their home fortress for the game, where they are nine and zip so far this season. That suggests this will be a tough task for the Cats. They would be right up there in the list of teams capable of coming away from the Gabba with a win, but while they won’t make life easy for the Lions, it’s hard to tip against the home team in this one.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions 1-39$2.25
Lions 1-24$3.30
Lions to win$1.45

Predicted Squads

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, K.Coleman C: H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey, J.Fletcher HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, L.McCarthy F: D.Zorko, J.Daniher, C.Rayner FOLL: O.McInerney, L.Neale, W.Ashcroft I/C: J. Dunkley, J.Lyons, J.Gunston, D.Wilmot

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: J.Kolodjashnij, S.De Koning, J.Henry HB: Z.Guthrie, T.Stewart, J.Bowes C: M.Duncan, M.Blicavs, I.Smith HF: G.Miers, J.Cameron, T.Stengle F: O.Henry, T.Hawkins, B.Close FOLL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield, T.Atkins I/C: M.O’Connor, M.Holmes, T.Bruhn, G.Rohan

Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans

Any team from all the way down to 15th on the AFL ladder is theoretically capable of making the finals, but the Dockers and Swans sit right at the bottom of the list and badly need to win this weekend to give themselves a chance. Both sides which had impressive 2022 seasons, they’ve been probably the two most disappointing teams this year (the woeful West Coast aside), and the bottom five is not where either would have expected to find themselves at this point in the season. But all is not necessarily completely lost. It’s going to be very hard for either of them to put themselves in the mix for the finals, but the winner here could theoretically move to within a game of the top eight, such is the closeness of the ladder. For the Dockers, a victory would require a drastic turnaround in form – they’ve lost their past three games, including their last two by a combined total of 99 points. The Swans, meanwhile, haven’t been quite so bad – their last three results have seen a draw against the Cats that should have been a win, a close loss to the Tigers, and a defeat of the Dogs last weekend. While they’re fighting to keep their season alive, the Dockers seem to have just about raised the white flag. Even in Perth, the Swans can get the job done in a close game this Saturday night.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Swans to win$1.77
Under 165.5 total match points$1.91
Swans -2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: J.Hamling, A.Pearce, C.Wagner HB: H. Chapman, L.Ryan, J.Aish C: L.Henry, N.Erasmus, J.Clark HF: S.Switkowski, S.Sturt, L.Schultz F: M. Taberner, J.Amiss, M.Walters FOLL: J. Treacy, L.Jackson, A.Brayshaw I/C: B.Banfield, M.Johnson, J.O’Meara, E.Hughes

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: D.Rampe, J. Lloyd, N.Blakey HB: O.Florent, T.McCartin, H.Cunningham C: B.Campbell, L.Parker, E.Gulden HF: W. Hayward, L.McDonald, I.Heeney F: J.Amartey, L.Franklin, T.Papley FOLL: H.McLean, J.Rowbottom, C.Mills I/C: R.Fox, C. Warner, J.McInerney, S.Wicks

Port Adelaide Power vs Collingwood Magpies

I said that the Lions vs Cats might be the game of the round – it’s not. This is as enticing a clash as exists in the AFL at the moment, with the league’s clear two best teams going head to head in Adelaide. Both the Power and the Magpies have been nothing short of exceptional this year, and have long ago established themselves in the top two. They’ve lost a combined total of five out of their 34 games this year, with the Power’s 13-game winning streak coming to an end at the hands of the Blues last weekend and the Magpies having lost just two games all year. Port’s loss last week wasn’t entirely out of the blue, pardon the pun, given they had seven outs from the week prior, and with a number of them set to return this weekend they should much more closely resemble the team that has been nearly impossible to beat all season than that which trotted out last weekend. That team is yet to be beaten on their home turf by an interstate team this season, but Collingwood is more than capable of bucking that trend. Last time these sides met was back in Round 2, when the Pies gave them a shellacking, but that was at the MCG and when the Power had not yet established themselves as one of the favourites for this season’s flag. In Adelaide, don’t expect the Magpies to get the job done with as much ease. But in a pulsating game which could very well be a preview of this year’s Grand Final, Collingwood might still just be able to sneak over the line to all but assure themselves of top spot come the end of the home and away season.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.85
Magpies 1-24$3.40
Magpies -1.5$1.89

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: T. McKenzie, T.Jonas, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, A.Aliir, D.Williams C: M.Bergman, W.Drew, X.Duursma HF: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, T.Boak F: D.Byrne-Jones, C. Dixon, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: S.Lycett, O.Wines, C.Rozee I/C: J.McEntee, J.Finlayson, J. Horne-Francis, O. Lord

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: J.Howe, D.Moore, I.Quaynor HB: B.Maynard, N.Murphy, J.Noble C: S.Sidebottom, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos HF: B.Hill, M.Cox, P.Lipinski F: J.Elliott, D.McStay, T.Adams FOLL: D. Cameron, J.De Goey, N.Daicos I/C: J.Crisp, B.McCreery, B. Mihocek, A.Johnson

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GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Suns

Sunday’s action kicks off with a clash between the AFL’s two newest sides, both of whom find themselves on the cusp of the top eight with just over a month to go in the season. But it’s the Giants who look far more likely to play finals, having put together a scintillating run of form when they needed it most to put themselves into contention. Last week’s 14-point win over the Crows in Adelaide was a feat few sides have achieved this year and was the Giants’ fifth in a row, taking their win-loss ledger into the positive for the first time since Round 1 and moving them to within percentage of not just the top eight, but sixth spot. The Suns are a game further back and having recently sacked their coach, don’t have quite the same aura of optimism around them, but a victory in their first game under caretaker Steven King against the Saints last week means they’re within just a game of the top eight. A win this week, and they’ll be right back in the mix, despite all the turmoil which has surrounded them of late. At their best they are one of the best contested ball teams in the league and could really take it up to the Giants, but the way GWS are playing it’s hard to tip against them, particularly on their home turf.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Giants to win$1.55
Under 168.5 total match points$1.91
Giants -8.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, H.Perryman HB: L.Ash, H.Himmelberg, L.Whitfield C: J.Kelly, C.Ward, F.Callaghan HF: D.Lloyd, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford F: B.Daniels, J.Hogan, T.Greene FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Green, S.Coniglio I/C: C.M.Brown, C.Idun, I.Cumming, R.Angwin

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: B.Ellis, D.Macpherson, E.Hollands C: R.Atkins, T.Miller, W.Powell HF: D.Swallow, B.Ainsworth, J.Lukosius F: N.Holman, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: S.Flanders, B.Humphrey, B.Long, H.Oea

Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows

The Demons appeared to be headed towards a third loss in four games last weekend, down comfortably throughout the game to the Lions and seemingly headed for a result which would put their top four spot in doubt – and even have them only a game inside the top eight. Instead, they flicked a switch in the last quarter, and when Jake Melksham kicked truly inside the final minute, snatched a one-point lead which they were able to hold onto for the remaining seconds. As a result, they’ve solidified their spot in the top four and put the ball very much in their own court with regards to earning a double chance. The Crows did the opposite. A poor last quarter saw the Giants run over the top of them to hand them their second consecutive defeat and their third in four weeks, sending them to 12th after spending most of the season on the cusp of the top four. They’re still just a game from sixth, but with a very tough game this weekend they could find themselves needing other teams to falter if they want to play finals this year. After a disappointing couple of weeks the Crows should come out swinging, but at the MCG the Demons should simply be too good.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons to win$1.36
Over 168.5 total match points$1.91
Demons -18.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: J.McVee, H.Petty, J.Lever HB: J.Bowey, S.May, A.Brayshaw C: T.Rivers, J.Viney, T.Woewodin HF: K.Pickett, J.Melksham, E.Langdon F: J.Jordon, B.Brown, C.Spargo FOLL: M.Gawn, C.Petracca, L.Hunter I/C: J.van Rooyen, C.Salem, A.Neal-Bullen, T.Sparrow

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, N.Murray, J.Butts  HB: M.Hinge, J.Worrell, W.Milera  C: L.Pedlar, J.Dawson, R.Sloane  HF: L.Sholl, D.Fogarty, J.Rachele  F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine  FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays I/C: R.Thilthorpe, M.Michalanney, C.Jones, S.McAdam 

St. Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

The Saints need a win as much as any team in the league, so a matchup with the Kangaroos could hardly have come at a better time. But though the Roos have lost 14 in a row following their lacklustre loss to the Hawks last weekend, the way the Saints have been playing even this clash is no certainty. They were comprehensively outplayed by the Suns in Round 19, mustering up just 11 scoring shots and kicking only eight goals for the third time in the past four weeks. Ross Lyon tore shreds off his side in the wake of what was their fourth defeat in the past five games, suggesting in no uncertain terms that his side – which still sits sixth – is unworthy of playing finals in their current form. It’s hard to argue with him – the solitary win in that five-week period has come against the Eagles, and even that was a close run thing, so they certainly can’t expect to just turn up and beat North Melbourne. But with a loss almost certain to see them tumble out of the eight and probably not return, surely they can get the job done on Sunday.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Saints 1-39$2.30
Under 161.5 total match points$1.91
Saints to win$1.15

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda St. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: J.Webster, M.Windhager, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: J. Billings, J.Steele, B.Hill HF: R.Byrnes, M.Phillipou, M.Wood F: M.Owens, A.Caminiti, J.Gresham FOLL: R.Marshall, B.Crouch, J.Sinclair I/C: Z.Jones, L.Stocker, D.Butler, J. Higgins

North Melbourne North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A.Corr, B.McKay, La.Young  HB: J.Goater, H.Sheezel, L.McDonald  C: E.Ford, T.Thomas, B.Scott  HF: C. Lazzaro, D.Tucker, J.Stephenson  F: C.Harvey, N.Larkey, P.Curtis FOLL: T.Xerri, L.Davies-Uniacke,H. Greenwood I/C: J.Archer, J. Ziebell, L.Shiels, C.Taylor 

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