Saturday Racing Tips - Caulfield 02/09/23

On Saturday, we have a Best Bet, Next Best and a Roughie from Caulfield, including a tip in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes.

The time is now - the Spring Carnival gets underway properly as the calendar turns to September, with the Group 1 Memsie Stakes the highlight of the Caulfield card. The 1400m Group 1 is the 9th race out of 10 on the day and will see the return of some who have their eyes set on a slot in the Everest in October. Along with our three top picks for the action that we hope can see the horse racing bookmakers scurrying for cover, we also have our jockey of the day and a multi on the card.

(Note: Odds provided by PlayUp)

Selections:
#2 - Barber - $3.70
#11 - Hedged - $7.50
#5 - Scheelite (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $10.00
#1 - Little Brose - $7.00

BEST BET - #2 Barber
The Godolphin colt has won three of his six career starts. Crucially, where Saturday is concerned, he is a perfect 2/2 when he is first up. Two of his three defeats have come when he has taken on Group 1 company - one of those saw him behind Little Brose, who is also in this race. He had beaten that horse prior in Group 3 company when fresh, so he looks well set to run big once more when coming off the back of a break.

THE DANGER - #11 Hedged
Mick Price has some nice types in his stable, and Hedged is another. He showed the benefit of a winter off to grow up when off the mark at The Valley on his last start. That was only a maiden, so this is a big step up in class for him to take into Group 3 company, but the visual impression that he gave that day was of a group class horse in the making. That contest was torn apart by 4.5l, so he is worthy of his place at this better level.

VALUE BET  - #5 Scheelite
He made a solid return to action in the Vain Stakes at this track two weeks ago. He was just behind Little Brose on that occasion, but a slow start saw him unable to get a position from his low barrier in the early stages. This extra 100m looks a positive as he hit the line hard there and still looked a little bit green, hanging left under the drive in the latter stages. That should have brought him on, a tidy winner when second-up at Flemington in May 

Selections:
#7 - Benedetta (NEXT BEST) - $2.70
#2 - Parisal - $3.50
#9 - C’est Magique - $5.00
#4 - Wrote To Arataki - $11.00

BEST BET - #7 Benedetta
She returned from a spell off with a tidy winning performance at Flemington at the start of August, winning with a bit in hand even though she looked like she would improve for getting a run out. She is the winner of five of her seven career starts, looking deeply progressive and deserving of this move into Group 3 company. She has Daniel Stackhouse back on top after he missed her most recent success, the pair winning four of the five races they have teamed up. The sky is the limit for this mare - she looks the one to beat.

THE DANGER - #2 Parisal
Did the job nicely the first time up in a race where things did not entirely go to plan. She was trapped a little wide but showed a nice attitude to get the job done. Her primary market rival that day severely underperformed, so there is that little question mark over the form for all that she beat the rest of her rivals well enough. She is entitled to do better still, as that was her first start for 140 days, and she has only had seven runs. The extra 100m she has to go here also looks a positive.

VALUE BET  - #9 C’est Magique
She has not been seen in a race since last October when second in the Group 1 Coolmore. She was one position in front of Buenos Noches, then that horse laying down an Everest marker a couple of weeks back. That level of form is the standout in this contest, and the betting has looked positive for her in the early stages - her price almost halved from the opening show. She is a danger to all if she is ready to go first time up. 

Selections:
#2 - I Wish I Win (BEST BET) - $4.20
#1 - Mr Brightside - $2.70
#3 - Alligator Blood - $6.00
#13 - Princess Grace - $8.00

BEST BET - #2 I Wish I Win
A strong Everest contender for October, his return to action is one of the most keenly anticipated of the spring. His tale as an ugly duckling of a foal who was given the nickname Forrest Gump has been well trodden as he has emerged into a Rolls Royce of a Group 1 performer. His turn of foot is exceptional, and he is versatile regarding distance. This 1400m test will be fine for him first up, doing his best work late in the piece over any distance they send him over. He is one of the most exciting sprinters in the country at present - he can come back with a bang.

THE DANGER - #1 Mr Brightside
Race fitness is on the side of Ben Hayes-trained six-year-old. A slick winner of the P.B Lawrence over this track and distance first time up, that was right up there with the best form of his life. He spent most of last season fighting things out with Alligator Blood, who is in here again today, so another clash between the pair is highly anticipated. The pair of them have plenty of smart form over further, so although he is a perfect 2/2 over this track and distance, it will be fascinating to see what plan they have to try and draw the sting out of I Wish I Win so that he does not beat the pair for a turn of pace. 

VALUE BET  - #3 Alligator Blood
He was a very smart performer on his day, and as discussed above, he and Mr Brightside competed against one another a lot last season, with both taking decisions over the other. Early in a spell is an excellent time to catch him, winning four of his nine starts first up. He has not been seen since April in race action, but that is no concern given his record. He relishes good ground and ran a solid race in this contest last season when first up, so he should be in the mix for the places at the finish. He is a touch more exposed than the pair picked ahead of him for all that.

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There is a fair book of rides for one of the top jocks in the country on Saturday with some middling prices throughout the betting industry market providers, which suggests that this could be an excellent start to the Spring Carnival for him.

R1 - #1 - Blazerro - $8.50
R2 - #10 - Blow In - $11.00
R4 - #11 - Affordable - $6.50
R6 - #12 - Makram - $12.00
R9 - #1 - Mr Brightside - $2.70
R10 - #11 - Superium - $34.00

Quality action at Caulfield, and with this generally being a fair track, there should be little in the way of excuses from the beaten horses. Close to the pace is ideal when the fractions are right, but that is the same worldwide.

R5 - #5 - Scheelite - PLC $3.30
R7 - #7 - Benedetta - PLC $1.30
R9 - #2 - I Wish I Win - PLC $1.65

Total Odds = $6.08
$50 Stake = $353.92 Return!

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R9)

1st: 1, 2, 3, 13
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 13
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 13
$50 stake = 208% Flexi