Saturday Racing Tips Caulfield 02/12/23

The Group 2 Zipping Classic is the feature race on Caulfield's Saturday card, and we have a $11.00 Roughie for the race.

Saturday is the Spring Finale meeting at Caulfield, and they are going out with a bang. It is an excellent card on offer with eight of the ten races at Listed or Group level. We have three selections on the card, including a $11.00 Roughie in the big race of the afternoon and a Best Bet and a Next Best on the card as we look to deal a blow to the horse racing bookmakers with the calendar now turning to December. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#3 Miraval Rose (BEST BET)  - $2.10 
#1 Extremely Rowdy - $6.00
#6 Bizot  - $10.00
#2 Right To Party - $8.50

BEST BET - #3 Miraval Rose
It was a huge step up in class from a Kyneton maiden to a Caulfield Group 3 last time out, but the three-year-old filly failed by only 0.1l to get her head in front again. She had the widest barrier to contend with in the Group 3 but still managed to get across into a position and only just failed to run the winner down. Better drawn here, she drops back into Listed company and steps out to 1400m, which should all see her in a better light. She should be hard to beat, having already beaten her main danger. 

THE DANGER - #1 Extremely Rowdy
The winner of her last two starts, she was well beaten by Miraval Rose at Kyneton on the start before that. Both of her wins have come on a soft surface, and with rain in the weather forecast, that is no bad thing for her and might allow her to close up the gap on her old foe a little bit. The distance between them in that Kyneton maiden was 2.75l off level weights. She has a kilo more than Miraval Rose to carry on this occasion, so she might need some serious rain to turn that form around.

VALUE BET  - #6 Bizot
The comfortable winner of a Ballarat maiden in October, she was fourth on her first try at this Listed level last time out at Flemington. The second and third that day were Joliestar and Kimochi, who finished first and second in the Thousand Guineas subsequently. Bizot was beaten more than five lengths in that contest, but it is still a strong line of form. She is a little too big in the betting, but this might not entirely fall apart in front of her as perfectly as that recent start did.

Selections:
#3 Ain'tnodeeldun (NEXT BEST) - $3.20 
#1 Just Folk - $3.80
#7 Let’srollthedice - $8.00
#4 Junipal - $8.00

BEST BET - #3 Ain’tnodeeldun
Ain'tnodeeldun took out the Group 3 JRA Cup at Moonee Valley last time out over 2040m. He is down in distance a little bit here, but this is a much stiffer track, so the difference will be negligible. He had to challenge wide on that occasion, which is not the best place to be at The Valley, doing well to win from where he was. That was his third win on the bounce, so he is in the form of his life, and this looks like another good opportunity getting so much weight from his main rival.

THE DANGER - #1 Just Folk
He has been keeping some smart company this preparation, third in the Cranbourne Cup last time out, which followed up an excellent fourth in the Crystal Mile at The Valley. Those runs have come over 1600m, stepping up to 1800m for this run. He tends to be ridden close to the pace, which should be in his favour in this small field. His chance will hinge on how long his stamina lasts on this track. He is the class angle in the race, but his impost has him giving away lumps of weight to his rivals.

VALUE BET  - #7 Let’srollthedice
Met Ain'tnodeeldun in October, finishing 3.25l behind that rival and is only 0.5kg better off at the weights in this race. He got himself a soft lead when winning over course and distance last time out, something that he is unlikely to get on this occasion, so it remains to be seen if he is going to be able to show that level of form again in this tougher-looking race. If he can, he has a strong claim of at least getting himself into the trifecta reckoning.  

Selections:
#10 Muramasa - $4.40 
#1 Vow And Declare - $5.00
#4 Military Mission (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $11.00
#11 Deny Knowledge - $5.00

BEST BET - #10 Muramasa
A Group 3 winner the last twice, first up over 2000m at this track in the Coongy and then when up in distance to 2600m in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington. This trip will be no issue for him - he has taken his form to a new level this preparation. He only won one of his first seven starts but has picked up three on the bounce now, and while this is a deeper contest, as a four-year-old with only ten races in his life, he is one of the least exposed in this contest. 

THE DANGER - #1 Vow And Declare
Winner of this race last year, things did not map out well for him in the Melbourne Cup, the fourth time he has run in that contest. He was 9th that day, one place in front of our roughie, Military Mission, and there should be very little between them again here. His two runner-up efforts before that in the Caulfield Stakes and the Moonee Valley Cup read very well at this level, and with Huetor scratched from this contest, it makes his chance of hitting the frame a very strong one again.

VALUE BET  - #4 Military Mission
The Herbert Power Stakes was a weaker race for the level that he won over track and distance in October. He was fourth in the Group 1 Metropolitan at Randwick before that Group 2 win so he has form at a higher level, although again, that might not have been the strongest 2400m Group 1 ever won. He is still too big of a price in this grade, given that he has such strong form in similar contests. He ran well in the Melbourne Cup last time out, and this should suit him better than that.

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The confidence seems to be returning for Kah after her horror fall at Flemington. She took a while to get back into the swing of things, but recent weeks suggest she is close to being back to her best. Kah has a strong book of rides, and the betting sites' prices indicate that she will enjoy an excellent Saturday afternoon. Six rides on the afternoon where the biggest price is $6.50, it looks a perfect opportunity for Kah to salute on multiple winners on the day.

R1 - #9 - Voile - $3.40
R2 - #4 - Awash - $4.80
R6 - #2 - Vilana - $2.30
R8 - #11 - Deny Knowledge - $5.00
R9 - #5 - Wollombi  - $6.50
R10 - #8 - Ghaanati  - $4.00

This week, a place multi-tip with the first two legs both short and some value added with the roughie as the final selection. Caulfield is a fair track, and with a solid pace in the races looking likely, the picks should be able to get themselves right into the mix.

R4 - #3 - Miraval Rose - PLC$1.20
R5 - #3 - Ain’tnodeeldun - PLC$1.50
R8 - #4 - Military Mission - PLC$3.10

Total Odds = $5.58
$50 Stake = $279.00 Return!

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R5)

1st: 1, 3, 4, 7
2nd: 1, 3, 4, 7
3rd: 1, 3, 4, 7
$50 stake = 208% Flexi