Saturday Racing Tips Caulfield 03/02/24

There is just one week to go until the autumn Group 1 races start again, giving us plenty to look forward to. We have another battle this week with the horse racing bookmakers to get through first, and we look to wage war on them at Caulfield. Both our Best Bet and our Next Best are unexposed and deeply progressive types who could well have a role to play when they look to take on a stronger grade than this later in the autumn as their rising mark demands of them.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Best of the Day	Caulfield Race 10 #13 Jimmysstar	Win: $2.10 Bet Now	Place: $1.42 Bet Now
Next Best	Caulfield Race 9 #9 Midtown Boss	Win: $2.30 Bet Now	Place: $1.44 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Caulfield Race 5 #5 Intrepid Eagle	Win: $11.00 Bet Now	Place: $3.60 Bet Now

Caulfield Race 5 - John Moule Handicap BM70 (1400m)

Selections:
#7 Punch Lane - $4.00
#14 Zondee - $2.80
#5 Intrepid Eagle (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $11.00
#3 Green Belt - $15.00

BEST BET - #7 Punch Lane
He has not finished out of the first three in the five starts since his debut 5th. He won his first two races this prep before coming off slightly lame after finishing 3rd at Sandown last time out. That makes that defeat easy enough to forgive, and the run can be marked up. It looks like 1400m can suit him, and this class will be well within his capabilities. He only had those six runs in his life, so it would be a surprise if there is not much better still to come from him, and that can start here.

THE DANGER - #14 Zondee
It's been three months since he last raced, but that was in a Group 2 race at Randwick, where he was beaten under 2.5l. That was over 1600m, just fading from 2nd to 5th late on, so the return to 1400m for this race should suit him well. It is fair to say that that form is the strongest in this contest, so he has to be given a massive chance if he is ready to go first up from a slightly wider barrier than is ideal. He was second and third in his prior two races off the back of a break, so he is entitled to plenty of respect.

VALUE BET - #5 Intrepid Eagle
A winner over 1200m at The Valley just after Christmas, he looked to be crying out for the return to this distance when third at Sandown last time out. That was a race run at a slow pace, so being held up did not help his chance, doing his best work late on, nowhere stronger than at the line. He had a win over this trip last May so should be able to take a step forward returned to this distance now. 

Caulfield Race 9 - Catanach's Jewellers Handicap BM84 (1100m)

Selections:
#9 Midtown Boss (NEXT BEST) - $2.30
#1 Jungle Jim - $8.00
#3 Rey Magnerio - $8.00
#13 Kin - $8.00

BEST BET - #9 Midtown Boss
This is a step up in class for the Matt Laurie-trained gelding, but he was hugely impressive in his first run for the stable at Flemington when saluting off the back of a 212-day break. He has a win and a second in his career when second up, and he has only had seven starts in total, so there should be more to come from him. He beat Mornington Glory that day, a horse who had chased home Rey Magnerio back in November. A line through that horse at these weights makes this gelding the boss of these.

THE DANGER - #1 Jungle Jim
Has hit form with a vengeance the last twice with a pair of wins over the 1200m straight course at Flemington. Arguably, he has had the run of the race on the front end each time, and this is a different test around a bend for him. Still, he has to be given a tremendous amount of respect for those wins and from the six barrier, he should be able to get on the front end again and take them along from the early stages. However, an impost of 63kg might prove too much for him late on.

VALUE BET - #3 Rey Magnerio
He was a little bit disappointing when behind Jungle Jim at Flemington last time out - he arrived at that contest off the back of three straight wins. He was a touch out of his ground in a race where Jungle Jim made all the running, so Jye McNeil will want to keep his mount a little handier here, especially back down in distance. That could be a plus for him, as well as being back around a bend with a 2.5kg swing at the weights.

Caulfield Race 10 - Sportsbet Get On Extra Handicap BM84 (1400m)

Selections:
#13 Jimmysstar (BEST BET) - $2.10
#7 Who Dares - $7.00
#2 Brung King - $9.00
#11 Up And Under - $21.00

BEST BET - #13 Jimmysstar
Looked a nice type in New Zealand but has taken off in a couple of starts since joining Ciaron Maher. He came from a long way back to salute at Bendigo in early November, a performance made stronger by the bias that day for those who sat much closer to the pace. He backed up the visual impression he made that day at Cranbourne later that same month to make it four wins in five career starts. No one knows how high his ceiling is, so he has to be supported.

THE DANGER - #7 Who Dares
He doesn't get his head in front as often as one of his abilities should, winning just two of his 17 starts but filling the runner-up spot seven times. Narrowly second last time in a Listed race at Flemington that is a strong piece of form back down in a BM84, a repeat of which would entitle him to be a shorter price than he is. His lack of regular winning has made him as big as this, and I can see him filling out the same spot here against one who looks to be hugely progressive.

VALUE BET - #2 Brung King
The winner of five of his ten starts, he is a genuine 1400m specialist, winning four of his seven races over this distance. 2/2 so far this prep, producing the best runs of his career, which means that he is a massive player on the bare face of that form. The concerns are that his barrier in 15 is not a helpful starting spot for one who likes to be up with the pace, and the best of his form has all come on a much softer surface than the one he will encounter here. He was third in a maiden on a Good 4 surface, the only time that he has run on similar, but since then, all of his best form has been done on a Soft 7 or wetter.

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