Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 04/11/23

Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets
Flemington 04/11/23

Saturday at Flemington is a day to celebrate the career of Damien Oliver, with the final race named in his honour.

It’s another Saturday trying to beat the horse racing bookmakers, and with only a few days until the 2023 Melbourne Cup, it would be the perfect time to hit a winning run of form. Keeping a close eye on how Flemington is riding this weekend should help to give some clues ahead of Tuesday’s card and the race that stops a nation.

(Note: Odds provided by PlayUp)

Best of the DayFlemington Race 7  
#4 Riff Rocket
Win: $2.05
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Place: $1.24
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Next BestFlemington Race 8
#1 Alcohol Free
Win: $5.50
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Place: $2.15
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Roughie of the DayFlemington Race 5
#10 Aethelflaed
Win: $17.00
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Place: $4.00
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Flemington Race 5 - TAB Wakeful Stakes Group 2 (2000m)

#1 Zardozi - $2.40
#4 Harlow Mist - $5.50
#10 Aethelflaed (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $17.00
#3 Konasana - $5.00

BEST BET - #1 Zardozi
Things had not gone her way in the early starts of this preparation, but everything clicked into place in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes at this track in early October. That was over a mile on slightly softer ground than she is going to get now, but it is the strongest form that there is in the lineup. The new trip should not be a concern for her given how strong she went through the line that day, and this track clearly suits her. Everything looks set up to produce a huge run.  

THE DANGER - #4 Harlow Mist
Unbeaten in her first three starts, including at this track over 1800m. The step back to 1400m was a negative last time and saw her unbeaten record ended, but she emerged with a tremendous amount of credit in third. She didn’t get the smoothest passage through and wasn’t beaten far. She tries 2000m for the first time, which shapes to suit her. She is from the family of an Oaks winner, so she promises to improve for the new distance. This is a tougher race, but the trip could unlock that little bit extra from her here.

VALUE BET  - #10 Aethelflaed
Aehelflaed was the oldest daughter of Alfred The Great and ruled Mercia from 911 to 919 AD. Her namesake looks too big a price to rule over this field of three-year-old fillies on Saturday. She has only had three starts, improving on her first pair to land a Class 1 event at Kembla Grange last time out. That bare level of form would leave her with plenty to find on paper, but her trainer, Matthew Smith, makes her of interest. Smith has had four runners at Victoria Metro tracks this season for three winners, 2/3 at The Valley and 1/1 at Flemington. She is a half-sister to a NZ Derby winner and can produce a career-best now.

Flemington Race 7 - Victoria Derby Group 1 (2500m)

#4 Riff Rocket (BEST BET) - $2.05
#1 Apulia - $4.40
#2 Verdad - $7.50
#8 Gates - $15.00

BEST BET - #4 Riff Rocket
He was very disappointing when turned over at prohibitive odds at Caulfield, but that race was run at an absolute crawl, so it is well worth giving him another chance back in a race where the pace should be more generous. He had run riot at this track the time before over 1800m and shapes as if this Derby trip is going to be to his liking. He is short odds again here, which is fully justified if he produces a similar display to his last visit.

THE DANGER - #1 Apuli
Behind the Best Bet at Caulfield, two starts back, another who was undone by the lack of tempo in that race. He showed that effort to be all wrong when seeing off Verdad at The Valley last Saturday. That was off a much stronger pace, and he showed how helpful that was to him, winning with plenty in hand with the margin of two lengths. He is another who should benefit from stretching his legs over a more extended trip. The pace here will help him, but he must still find a way past the favourite.

VALUE BET  - #2 Verdad
A little bit disappointing when he was beaten by Apulia last Saturday at The Valley, but there was a change of tactics on him there, going from the front instead of being held up, and it probably disadvantaged him, only serving to set the race up for Apulia. Would expect to see him reverting to a more patient run here, which can help him at least close up those two lengths that he was beaten by. He has form claims but perhaps has a touch more to prove over the suitability of this distance than the two ahead of him.

Flemington Race 8 - TAB Empire Rose Stakes Group 1 (1600m)

#1 Alcohol Free (NEXT BEST) - $5.50
#2 Princess Grace - $7.50
#4 Atishu - $6.00
#14 Wishlaw Lass - $8.50

BEST BET - #1 Alcohol Free
Although she was a Group 1 winner over as short as 1200m in England, returning to 1600m here might be just the ticket she needs to get her head back in front. It was her best display since coming to Australia when racing over 1400m last time out, beaten less than a length in a strong contest for fillies and mares only. She remains against her own sex here, which is a plus for her chances, and if her stable have managed to coax her back to her best, she is going to be too good for these. 

THE DANGER - #2 Princess Grace
Frustrating type has been knocking on the door this spring without being able to get her head in front. She was a bit below par in the Group 2 Blazer last time out, but that was on softer ground, and perhaps that didn’t suit her. Her earlier efforts in Group 1’s like the Winx, Memsie, and Makybe Diva are solid form. She split Mr Brightside, and I Wish I Win in the second of those, which is the strongest form on Australian soil in the contest. A wide barrier here is a concern, so she might come off second-best again. 

VALUE BET  - #4 Atishu
Produced a strong run in the Golden Pendant at Rosehill two starts back, finishing second to Espiona. On a line through that smart mare, she has a couple of lengths to find at the weights with Alcohol Free, but that level of form is strong enough for her to be plenty competitive here in a race like this against her own sex. Things did not go her way last time out in the King Charles III Stakes when she was a long way out of her ground at the back of the field. She is better than that and should be in the frame.

Best Bookie For Flemington This Saturday

Are you looking to place a bet this Saturday? Check out our best betting sites in Australia to discover the best bookmakers to enjoy a bet with our expert tips, with simple sign-ups for each site on offer.

Playup is our top bookmaker for our horse racing tips this week. They regularly provide some of the top fixed odds prices on the open market across all meetings. Odds are provided for almost all Australian horse racing, with many racing promotions for you to enjoy when you have signed up for them. Although they are one of the newer Australian bookmakers, they have quickly gained a great reputation by offering an excellent betting experience. Their slick and well-designed website makes them a great place to bet on our Australian horse racing tips. 


Best Fixed Odds, Playup Playbook

Join us each Saturday for the best expert bets on Australian horse racing. Every week we will preview one of the big Saturday cards to provide you with the best tips, including a best bet, a next bet and a roughie of the day for those who enjoy a long shot.

We will also have news articles each week with need-to-know info. We will tell you about any bonuses and promotions you can take advantage of with your betting and get our multi-tips and jockeys to follow.

If you need more help or explanations on anything horse racing related, check out our horse racing betting sites page, where you can find bet types, strategies and FAQs, amongst other helpful information.

Jockey Of The Day – Damien Oliver

It just couldn’t be anyone else, could it? Riding in his last Victoria Derby, three days before his final Melbourne Cup, soon the Australian betting sites will no longer have the name on their racecards. The Saturday card finishes in a race named in his honour, so we have to put up ‘Ollie’ in the hope that he salutes aboard multiple winners on the day. There are some serious roughies here, so those looking for a hefty price or two will not be disappointed.

R1 - #9 - Just In Time - $19.00
R2 - #2 - Kalapour - $4.80
R3 - #2 - Queen Of The Ball - $12.00
R5 - #10 - Aethelflaed - $17.00
R6 - #14 - Moravia - $23.00
R7 - #13 - Mercante - $61.00
R8 - #16 - More Secrets - $31.00
R9 - #1 - Vilana - $5.50

Multi Tips For Flemington

It’s top-quality action on Saturday with an entire card of Group races, which should hopefully mean that the cream will rise to the top, which should be good news for our multi tip. 

R5 - #10 - Aethelflaed - PLC $4.00
R7 - #4 - Riff Rocket - PLC $1.24
R8 - #1 - Alcohol Free - PLC $2.15

Total Odds = $10.66
$50 Stake = $533.20 Return!

Odds are provided by PlayUp, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Exotic Tips For Flemington

There are a lot of exotic tips to enjoy in horse racing. If you don’t know how they work or need to brush up on your knowledge of them, check out our information page.

Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R7)

1st: 1, 2, 4, 8
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 8
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 8
$50 stake = 208% Flexi

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