Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 04/11/23

It’s another Saturday trying to beat the horse racing bookmakers, and with only a few days until the 2023 Melbourne Cup, it would be the perfect time to hit a winning run of form. Keeping a close eye on how Flemington is riding this weekend should help to give some clues ahead of Tuesday’s card and the race that stops a nation.

(Note: Odds provided by PlayUp)

Best of the Day	Flemington Race 7 #4 Riff Rocket	Win: $2.05 Bet Now	Place: $1.24 Bet Now
Next Best	Flemington Race 8 #1 Alcohol Free	Win: $5.50 Bet Now	Place: $2.15 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Flemington Race 5 #10 Aethelflaed	Win: $17.00 Bet Now	Place: $4.00 Bet Now

Flemington Race 5 - TAB Wakeful Stakes Group 2 (2000m)

Selections:
#1 Zardozi - $2.40
#4 Harlow Mist - $5.50
#10 Aethelflaed (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $17.00
#3 Konasana - $5.00

BEST BET - #1 Zardozi
Things had not gone her way in the early starts of this preparation, but everything clicked into place in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes at this track in early October. That was over a mile on slightly softer ground than she is going to get now, but it is the strongest form that there is in the lineup. The new trip should not be a concern for her given how strong she went through the line that day, and this track clearly suits her. Everything looks set up to produce a huge run.

THE DANGER - #4 Harlow Mist
Unbeaten in her first three starts, including at this track over 1800m. The step back to 1400m was a negative last time and saw her unbeaten record ended, but she emerged with a tremendous amount of credit in third. She didn’t get the smoothest passage through and wasn’t beaten far. She tries 2000m for the first time, which shapes to suit her. She is from the family of an Oaks winner, so she promises to improve for the new distance. This is a tougher race, but the trip could unlock that little bit extra from her here.

VALUE BET - #10 Aethelflaed
Aehelflaed was the oldest daughter of Alfred The Great and ruled Mercia from 911 to 919 AD. Her namesake looks too big a price to rule over this field of three-year-old fillies on Saturday. She has only had three starts, improving on her first pair to land a Class 1 event at Kembla Grange last time out. That bare level of form would leave her with plenty to find on paper, but her trainer, Matthew Smith, makes her of interest. Smith has had four runners at Victoria Metro tracks this season for three winners, 2/3 at The Valley and 1/1 at Flemington. She is a half-sister to a NZ Derby winner and can produce a career-best now.

Flemington Race 7 - Victoria Derby Group 1 (2500m)

Selections:
#4 Riff Rocket (BEST BET) - $2.05
#1 Apulia - $4.40
#2 Verdad - $7.50
#8 Gates - $15.00

BEST BET - #4 Riff Rocket
He was very disappointing when turned over at prohibitive odds at Caulfield, but that race was run at an absolute crawl, so it is well worth giving him another chance back in a race where the pace should be more generous. He had run riot at this track the time before over 1800m and shapes as if this Derby trip is going to be to his liking. He is short odds again here, which is fully justified if he produces a similar display to his last visit.

THE DANGER - #1 Apuli
Behind the Best Bet at Caulfield, two starts back, another who was undone by the lack of tempo in that race. He showed that effort to be all wrong when seeing off Verdad at The Valley last Saturday. That was off a much stronger pace, and he showed how helpful that was to him, winning with plenty in hand with the margin of two lengths. He is another who should benefit from stretching his legs over a more extended trip. The pace here will help him, but he must still find a way past the favourite.

VALUE BET - #2 Verdad
A little bit disappointing when he was beaten by Apulia last Saturday at The Valley, but there was a change of tactics on him there, going from the front instead of being held up, and it probably disadvantaged him, only serving to set the race up for Apulia. Would expect to see him reverting to a more patient run here, which can help him at least close up those two lengths that he was beaten by. He has form claims but perhaps has a touch more to prove over the suitability of this distance than the two ahead of him.

Flemington Race 8 - TAB Empire Rose Stakes Group 1 (1600m)

Selections:
#1 Alcohol Free (NEXT BEST) - $5.50
#2 Princess Grace - $7.50
#4 Atishu - $6.00
#14 Wishlaw Lass - $8.50

BEST BET - #1 Alcohol Free
Although she was a Group 1 winner over as short as 1200m in England, returning to 1600m here might be just the ticket she needs to get her head back in front. It was her best display since coming to Australia when racing over 1400m last time out, beaten less than a length in a strong contest for fillies and mares only. She remains against her own sex here, which is a plus for her chances, and if her stable have managed to coax her back to her best, she is going to be too good for these.

THE DANGER - #2 Princess Grace
Frustrating type has been knocking on the door this spring without being able to get her head in front. She was a bit below par in the Group 2 Blazer last time out, but that was on softer ground, and perhaps that didn’t suit her. Her earlier efforts in Group 1’s like the Winx, Memsie, and Makybe Diva are solid form. She split Mr Brightside, and I Wish I Win in the second of those, which is the strongest form on Australian soil in the contest. A wide barrier here is a concern, so she might come off second-best again.

VALUE BET - #4 Atishu
Produced a strong run in the Golden Pendant at Rosehill two starts back, finishing second to Espiona. On a line through that smart mare, she has a couple of lengths to find at the weights with Alcohol Free, but that level of form is strong enough for her to be plenty competitive here in a race like this against her own sex. Things did not go her way last time out in the King Charles III Stakes when she was a long way out of her ground at the back of the field. She is better than that and should be in the frame.

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Jockey Of The Day – Damien Oliver

It just couldn’t be anyone else, could it? Riding in his last Victoria Derby, three days before his final Melbourne Cup, soon the Australian betting sites will no longer have the name on their racecards. The Saturday card finishes in a race named in his honour, so we have to put up ‘Ollie’ in the hope that he salutes aboard multiple winners on the day. There are some serious roughies here, so those looking for a hefty price or two will not be disappointed.

R1 - #9 - Just In Time - $19.00
R2 - #2 - Kalapour - $4.80
R3 - #2 - Queen Of The Ball - $12.00
R5 - #10 - Aethelflaed - $17.00
R6 - #14 - Moravia - $23.00
R7 - #13 - Mercante - $61.00
R8 - #16 - More Secrets - $31.00
R9 - #1 - Vilana - $5.50