Saturday Racing Tips Rosehill 09/09/23

We head to Rosehill on Saturday with tips, including a big $26.00 roughie in the Group 3 Ming Dynasty Quality.

Rosehill has a string of quality races on Saturday, including three Group 2 contests and a Group 3. All of that is on top of some competitive handicap races. The three-year-old generation takes centre stage in two big contests, races that should be worth following through the spring with some potentially very classy horses on show. We have three selections in the bigger races on the card, including a roughie who could be well over the odds with the odds compilers across the betting industry. We landed a trifecta last Saturday at Caulfield with our exotic tip and look to repeat the feat this week. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#6 I Am Me (NEXT BEST)- $3.20
#5 Zapateo - $2.30
#4 Sunshine In Paris - $8.50
#3 Zougotcha - $10.00

BEST BET - #6 I Am Me
Yet to taste defeat in three prior runs at Rosehill, her most recent success came at the start of August when taking out the Group 2 Missile over this 1200m trip. She made full use of the inside barrier on that occasion, bouncing out smartly to make all the running. Barrier 7 will see her work a little harder in the first 200m to take a position in this field, but she is a class act and can have too much for these.

THE DANGER - #5 Zapateo
Another who arrives first up, though she has two wins and a second when fresh in the past, so that is of no great concern. Back in May, she was twice third in Group 1 races, the first in the Sangster when behind Ruthless Dame. That filly had been beaten by Sunshine In Paris prior, but the Godolphin mare should be right up with that rival at these weights. This can be the start of a solid spring campaign for her, and a big run is expected if the early betting moves are a good judge.

VALUE BET  - #4 Sunshine In Paris
She has not raced since February when saluting in the Group 1 Surround Stakes at Randwick. Her last three runs have all come at that track, but there is little reason to think that Rosehill won't be fine for her. That race has worked out well as a form guide as both the second and third (Ruthless Dame and In Secret) have won at Group 1 level since. She won her maiden first-up last November at Canberra, but this is a much more difficult task when fresh. The fitness edge of the selection could be the deciding factor on this occasion. 

Selections:
#3 Tom Kitten - $3.80
#5 Encap - $4.60
#2 Townsend (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $26.00
#11 Zardozi  - $19.00

BEST BET - #3 Tom Kitten
Winner of the Up & Coming first up, that race is the key to this contest as the first five past the line will all re-oppose here. He did the best of his running late, so the extra 100m he has to travel here looks a plus, especially as he already has a 1600m win! He has won three of his six career starts, all coming for today's jockey, Nate Rawiller, who has had the mount four times. He should still have better to come, so he has to be a big player.

THE DANGER - #5 Encap
Not for the first time in his career, he caught the eye running on strongly when it was too late behind Tom Kitten in the Up & Coming. His run style would strongly suggest that moving out another 100m in trip is going to be a big plus for him, though there are only so many chances a horse who looks unlucky can be given before you start to think that the horse has a quirk. A barrier in 1 right on the inside might not be the ideal draw for a horse of his run style. No shock if he salutes, but equally no shock if he looks like an unlucky loser.

VALUE BET  - #2 Townsend
Only three starts so far for this Gai Waterhouse-trained colt, but he has already shown a strong level of form. His win came on debut, so first-up should not be an issue for him despite taking on those who have already had a run this season. Split decisions with Tom Kitten in a Listed contest and then a Group 1 at Randwick in April, form that, if he can reproduce, would suggest that he is far too high a price now if he is ready to roll.

Selections:
#2 Cylinder (BEST BET)  - $2.00
#7 Butch Cassidy  - $15.00
#3 Libertad  - $4.20
#4 Don Corleone - $7.50

BEST BET - #2 Cylinder
Runner-up in the Golden Slipper in March, he resumed with a win in the Vain Stakes three weeks ago, getting up close to the line over the 1100m trip. The return to 1200m will be a big plus for him, shaping as if there will be lots of progression still to come from him as the spring progresses. He has an excellent cruising speed and can lay down a marker for bigger targets in the coming weeks. 

THE DANGER - #7 Butch Cassidy
He had to wait a long time for a run when behind Libertad in the Domenico, keeping on strongly to the line when things finally opened up in front of him. Group 1 placed in the autumn - the harder they go in front, the better it will be for him. That Group 1 was over 1400m, so the extra 100m compared to the Domenico will be a plus for his chance. He will need to have the gaps open at the right time, but he looks set to run a huge race. 

VALUE BET  - #3 Libertad
He's a perfect 3/3 so far in his career, well-placed just off the speed when getting first run on his rivals in the Domenico. That is not to say that he might not have been the best horse on the day in any case, but this does look a little more difficult for him to keep that unbeaten record intact. Undoubtedly, he is an excellent prospect, so he could be well up to making an impression in deeper company.     

Are you looking to place a bet this Saturday? Check out our best betting sites in Australia to discover the best bookmakers to enjoy a bet with our expert tips, with simple sign-ups for each site on offer.

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Mounts in nine of the ten races on the afternoon and a number who have been priced up as favourites by the horse racing bookmakers. We all know that it is rarely as simple as that, but Rawiller's rides are an undoubtedly strong book, and multiple winners on the day really ought to be achievable. 

R1 - #1 - Bend The Knee  - $23.00
R2 - #8 - Take The Kitty - $2.60
R4 - #3 - Gracilistyla - $3.20
R5 - #8 - Holstein - $8.00
R6 - #2 - Espiona - $19.00
R7 - #3 - Tom Kitten - $3.80
R8 - #2 - Cylinder - $2.00
R9 - #5 - Golden Mile - $10.00
R10 - #3 - Extremely Lucky - $8.00

As with most tracks, you do not want to be too far away from the pace at Rosehill. A 400m+ run from the turn into the straight does allow horses to make ground from off the pace, but those who sit handy tend to be favoured. 

R6 - #6 - I Am Me - PLC $1.22
R7 - #2 - Townsend - PLC $6.50
R8 - #2 - Cylinder - PLC $1.40

Total Odds = $10.10
$50 Stake = $555.10  Return!

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Rosehill Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)

1st: 2, 3, 4, 7
2nd: 2, 3, 4, 7
3rd: 2, 3, 4, 7
$50 stake = 208% Flexi