Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 17/02/24

While the Lightning Stakes is the undoubted feature of the card on Saturday, there are also three Group 3 races and a pair of Listed contests to enjoy with the horse racing bookmakers getting the prices up nice and early. It is always a pleasure to sit and watch the high quality action and we hope that we have some winners found on the card in Melbourne this weekend to make it even more enjoyable. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Best of the Day	Flemington Race 8 #4 Imperatriz	Win: $1.80  Bet Now	Place: $1.15 Bet Now
Next Best	Flemington Race 5 #3 Wishlor Lass	Win: $3.00 Bet Now	Place: $1.60 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Flemington Race 7 #3 Run Harry Run	Win: $13.00 Bet Now	Place: $3.50 Bet Now

Flemington Race 5 - Frances Tressady Stakes Group 3 (1400m)

Selections:
#3 Wishlor Lass (NEXT BEST) - $3.00
#1 Revolutionary Miss - $5.50
#2 Foxy Freida - $10.00
#10 Eternal Flame - $6.00

BEST BET - #3 Wishlor Lass
Very progressive type in the spring, she won a pair of Group 3 races under Damian Lane who puts his unbeaten 2/2 record when in the saddle on the line here. She was beaten in Group 1 company on her final start of that last prep which can be excused both for the deeper company and that she was unable to get right on the pace, She has shown the best of her form when she has been able to lead and with Pride Of Jenni in opposition, she had no chance to get on the front end. This gives her much more of an opportunity to make the running and that will suit her perfectly.

THE DANGER - #1 Revolutionary Miss
Has the fitness edge on the next best after a run at Gold Coast where she was 3rd in a Listed race. Saluted in a race at this level in December at Caulfield but that was on a Soft 7 surface, far deeper than she is going to face here. She has a couple of wins when the going is good but she only has a 2/14 record whereas when she has raced on soft or heavy, she is 2/7 plus a pair of runner-up efforts so she might find the selection too quick on this ground. 

VALUE BET - #2 Foxy Freida
Is a kg better off with the selection from when they met back in a Group 3 at Caulfield in October. She was beaten a touch under two lengths on that occasion so she has a chance of getting closer strictly on the weights. With 30 races under her belt compared to nine for Wishlor Lass, she is much more exposed than that rival so she might struggle to reverse the places. She is a very consistent type though and should make her presence felt. 

Flemington Race 7 - CS Hayes Stakes Group 3 (1400m)

Selections:
#2 King Colorado - $3.20
#7 Otago - $4.80
#3 Run Harry Run - (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $13.00
#1 Riff Rocket - $7.50

BEST BET - #1 Riff Rocket
Winner of the J J Atkins last June, he was given some very stiff tasks for a three-year-old in his spring campaign. He kicked off in the Winx Stakes taking on Fangirl, Princess Grace and Zaaki and closed it out when pitched into the Cox Plate. His best run was when he took on his own age group, finishing 4th in the Caulfield Guineas. He split Brave Mead and Steparty in the Group 3 Manfred to kick off this prep, form that gives him a winning chance here.

THE DANGER - #7 Otago
This is a massive step up in class for the Mick Price-trained gelding but he is a trainer who has plenty of experience with Group 1 winners so he has to be respected given that his handler is happy to send him to this Group 3. A maiden win and then a Benchmark 70 success are all that we have to go on in terms of form, that bare level is a long way below what others have achieved. He has looked a smart type in those wins though and as mentioned, it is very interesting that he has been thrown in the deep end rather than finding another handicap.

VALUE BET - #3 Run Harry Run
Got no luck at all on his debut but won all of his other three starts in the spring. The final one of those successes saw him land the Group 3 Blue Sapphire over 1400m at Caulfield where the runner-up was Brave Mead. As mentioned, that horse was in front of King Colorado when last in action which makes the roughie well up with the top pick in this race at the weights. He has to show that he is ready to run to his best level first-up but after only four career races, it is easy to think that there is going to be plenty of improvement to come from him.

Flemington Race 8 - Black Caviar Lightning Group 1 (1000m)

Selections:
#4 Imperatriz (BEST BET) - $1.80
#1 Private Eye - $5.00
#3 Bella Nipotina - $7.00
#7 Cylinder - $12.00

BEST BET - #4 Imperatriz
One of the top sprinters on the planet when she is firing on all cylinders as she was during the spring when winning all of her four starts. That has taken her career record to 17/23 which is a remarkable win percentage. She was perhaps not quite at her very best when saluting in the VRC Classic on her final start of the spring over 1200m at this track but with five wins and a 2nd in six starts when first-up, she should be set to kick off her autumn campaign with a win here.

THE DANGER - #1 Private Eye
Third in the Everest last prep, he was only able to finish runner-up in the Giga Kick Stakes in early November when he was last in race action. That saw him behind Bella Nipotina over 1300m, perhaps the trip was a little on the long side for him. He goes the other way now, returning to 1000m for the first time since his racecourse debut in July 2020. A smart win over 1100m last prep suggests that he is going to have the speed and he is 4/8 when first-up but he has a single Group 1 win, generally coming up just a bit short at this level.

VALUE BET - #3 Bella Nipotina
As mentioned, she won the Giga Kick Stakes last prep when she finished in front of Private Eye. She followed that up with a 5th place effort behind Imperatriz in the VRC Classic and now drops back to 1000m for her first run of this prep. There is winning form over this distance in her back catalogue but she found it on the short side when running on into 3rd in the Group 3 Concorde Stakes in September. Others will be better suited by the distance but she is a consistent mare who will be doing her best work late on. 

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Jockey Of The Day – Damian Lane

The prices on the betting sites suggest that Damian Lane is in for a good day on Saturday at Flemington as he edges closer to 1500 domestic winners. Not only is he on our next best on the card but he has a string of other mounts who are single-figure prices with a full book of 10 rides on the afternoon for him to go searching for winners. 

R1 - #3 - Aramco - $2.20
R2 - #8 - Plus Fours - $7.00
R3 - #3 - Aardvark - $8.00
R4 - #6 - Up And Under - $6.50
R5 - #3 - Wishlor Lass - $3.00
R6 - #4 - Grinzinger Belle - $13.00
R7 - #12 - Et Tu Brute - $10.00
R8 - #7 - Cylinder - $12.00
R9 - #10 - Carini - $13.00
R10 - #11 - Bel Air - $5.00