Saturday Racing Tips - Randwick 19/08/23

We have tips for three of the big races at Randwick on Saturday, including the feature, the Group 1 Winx Stakes.

There is some outstanding quality on show on Saturday at Randwick. The Group 1 Winx Stakes is the pick of them where the veteran Zaaki makes his seasonal debut, with Jamie Kah back in the saddle following her awful fall at Flemington in March. It would be some story if the pair could combine to land the first Group 1 of the new season. It is far from a one-race card with a Group 2 and three Group 3 contests to enjoy. We have tips for three of the ten races on the card that we hope will have the horse racing bookmakers worried. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#7 - Parisal (NEXT BEST) - $3.80
#1 - Zougotcha  - $4.00
#3 - Mileva - $15.00
#5 - Cinderella Days- $7.50

BEST BET - #7 Parisal
She Found 1200m on a heavy track just stretched her stamina to breaking point when last in action. She looked like the winner until late on there, picking up the leader, but that move left her vulnerable to a late finisher over the top. Down 100m in distance and on a surface that will not be as deep, she can use her speed to find a good position early and sprint away from her main danger, who should lack the same turn of foot as her.

THE DANGER - #1 Zougotcha
The class horse in the race, she has won five of her nine career starts to this point. She had two entries on Saturday’s card at Randwick, with connections choosing this one, so she must be respected. A Group 2 winner in March over 1500m, that level of form would make her the one to beat if she can produce it first up. She has won two of her three first-up starts, so that shouldn't be an issue. The slight concern is that all her wins are over longer trips - this 1100m distance might be on the short side.  

VALUE BET  - #3 Mileva
She goes well when fresh, running a massive race in the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield in July. She had won that contest in 2022, showing the suitability of this 1100m trip. That run last month can give her the fitness edge over her main rivals, which will be needed as for all that she is a smart mare, the other pair have a class edge on her. Despite that, she has the required form in the book to be in the frame when it comes to the finish at a bigger-than-expected price.

Selections:
#2 - Zaaki - $4.40
#13 - Fangirl- $5.00
#16 - Hinged (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $17.00
#17 - King Colorado - $10.00

BEST BET - #2 Zaaki
What a return this could be for Jamie Kah on her first-day race riding since her fall in March. The nine-year-old has twice won the Tramway over this track and distance, second in the Group 1 All Aged to the mighty Giga Kick on his only other start over 1400m here. He stays further and goes on any ground, so he has to be one of the most versatile horses in training. He looked sharp in a trial at Rosehill last week, so looks ready to go first up.

THE DANGER - #13 Fangirl
Yet to prove herself under very soft conditions, connections will hope that the ground moves in the right direction for her. If it does, then she is a big player in this contest. She has become a bit of a bridesmaid in the last 12 months for all that she has been racing in with some top performers. Placed behind Anamoe three times in five weeks in February and March, that level of form should see her right in the mix. 

VALUE BET  - #16 Hinged
For a 1400m Group 1, there is little early pace in the contest. Those on the front end could outperform their odds, which is true with the Waller mare. She finished in front of Fangirl in the Group 1 Apollo over this same track and distance in February when she was ridden on the speed. We hope that Kerrin McEvoy gets the memo and that these are the tactics they use again as they are the way to use this mare to best effect.

Selections:
#2 - Kristilli (BEST BET) - $4.60
#11 - Estriella- $5.00
#5 - Kimochi  - $9.00
#7 - Zardozi  - $9.00

BEST BET - #2 Kristilli
The three-year-old has only had two starts, making a serious jolt of improvement from first race to second. She was pitched into a Group 2 on that second start over this same track and distance, looking to enjoy the heavy ground that day to reverse the form of her debut, getting revenge on the winner of that race. Conditions will not be quite as testing on Saturday, but she ticks the ‘could be anything’ box, which makes her a fascinating prospect for connections to target at the Spring Carnival.

THE DANGER - #11 Estriella
Another who has only seen race action twice, she was a slick winner on her second start. That came in July, so she has had a recent blow out which should stand her in good stead now. Her debut saw her second in a race where both the winner and third have subsequently placed at Group 1 level. The form she brings to the table is clearly of a strong standard, and after just two starts, she also has the potential to take another step up in ability. 

VALUE BET  - #5 Kimochi
She used her prior experience when beating Kristilli second time up. The best bet was on her debut that day, and she quickly reversed the form when they met again. Despite that, she was far from disgraced and perhaps found the heavy ground too taxing. Conditions will be soft here but not quite to that level, so it is possible that she can get back on the right path and at least close the gap to the selection, though we do not believe that she can get her head in front. 

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Several favourites are on the slate looking at James McDonald’s rides on Saturday. Eight rides in total, and it would be a bit of a surprise if McDonald can’t salute on more than one of these below. McDonald may be looking at his book of rides and be forgiven for thinking he could get four or five winners on the day. 

R2 - #12 - Rumours Abound - $5.00
R3 - #5 - Pachino - $4.20
R4 - #13 - Ivan’s Hero - $6.00
R6 - #4 - Desert Icon - $10.00
R7 - #1 - Zougotcha - $4.00
R8 - #13 - Fangirl - $5.00
R9 - #2 - Kristilli - $4.60
R10 - #3 - Pacific Ruby - $4.00

A string of five Group races is on the card at Randwick on Saturday. It is a track that is always popular across betting sites. Proven form at the level is always a plus, rather than trying to find those who have shown promise but are priced up on what they could achieve rather than what they have.

R7 - #7 - Parisal - PLC $1.75
R8 - #16 - Hinged  - PLC $4.60
R9 - #2 - Kristilli - PLC $2.00

Total Odds = $15.10
$50 Stake = $805 Return!

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Randwick Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R9)

1st: 2, 5, 7, 11
2nd: 2, 5, 7, 11
3rd: 2, 5, 7, 11
$50 stake = 208% Flexi