Saturday Racing Tips - Randwick 23/12/23

We have looked over the Royal Randwick card to find three bets we like on the card.

In battle with the horse racing bookmakers for one last time before Christmas, we have a $10.00 roughie on the card that could be a significant player on the day and one of the most emotional winners of the year. That would certainly see the card ending on a high note for connections and us!

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#4 Sharp Stock  (BEST BET) - $3.50
#5 Mazita - $4.80
#6 Final Comment - $16.00
#12 McKeon - $15.00

BEST BET - #4 Sharp Stock
Runner-up twice in similar highway C3 handicaps of late, the first time over this trip at Newcastle and then over 1400m at this track. There was little pace in the first of those, and then he found the 1400m on the short side last time out. As a hold-up type, he will always need things to fall right for him, and this maps out better for him now that he has returned to this distance but with a little bit more of a pace to chase. Four here like to push the speed on the front end, which should see this run perfectly to suit a closer.

THE DANGER - #5 Mazita
He looks the best of those likely to sit on the speed - he produced a clear career-best when trying this trip for the first time on his most recent start at Gosford. That was his first try, sitting on the pace that clearly suited him, and this will be just the 8th start of his life, so there is a strong case that he will improve a little more. Tim Clark is an interesting booking for a stable he has not ridden for before, so this gelding warrants respect. 

VALUE BET  - #6 Final Comment
He got his head back in front last time at Gosford over this 1600m trip. That was a BM65 contest, a solid second in this BM70 grade at Canberra the time before. He can produce his form on ground from a Good 3 down to a Soft 7, so he is adaptable. There should be a decent pace for him to track, which will be a plus for him. He usually sits just off the speed, so he should get the first shot at the leaders when they get to the final 400m. 

Selections:
#4 Waihaha Falls (NEXT BEST)  - $4.80
#10 Cavalier Charles - $5.00
#8 Our Redente- $5.50
#11 Chrysaor  - $7.50

BEST BET - #4 Waihaha Falls
He has done most of his racing at Randwick, producing some excellent efforts. He has placed in the Listed Razor Sharp twice, runner-up last year and third in the 2023 renewal two weeks ago. That is a 1200m contest, hitting the line in a way that suggests that the step back out to 1400m will be a big help to him here. He does have a win over 1500m way back in December 2021 to his credit, so the return to a longer distance is expected to suit.

THE DANGER - #10 Cavalier Charles
Ridden much more forward than usual on his most recent start, which perhaps did not suit, so he is expected to be given more cover and time on this occasion. Fourth in the Kosciuszko two starts before that, he was beaten three lengths from a wide barrier, which is form that gives him a good shot at this prize. He had filled the same spot in the 2022 renewal, so similar to Waihaha Falls, his campaign has been mapped out similarly. 

VALUE BET  - #8 Our Redente
We have to go back to November 2022 for his last win, over 1600m at Ballarat. He ran well on his first start of his autumn-winter preparation in April but didn’t show that same level of form in five subsequent races. He outran his $31.00 roughie price in a Listed race over 1200m at Caulfield on the opening race of this prep, a run that would entitle him to plenty of respect here. It’s a matter of whether he can back that up with a similar display or if he goes backwards again, like in his last prep.

Selections:
#4 Aristonous - $2.70
#8 State Of America - $7.00
#3 Rogue Bear (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $10.00
#6 Too Much Caviar  - $7.50

BEST BET - #4 Aristonous
He flew home from out the back over 1600m at this track on the first start of this prep, stepping back out to 1800m here. He won over this distance when trained in France and has been tried over as far as 2400m since arriving in Australia, so it is easy to see the extra 200m from last time being a big plus. He represents powerful connections and looks open to a little more improvement on his second start back.

THE DANGER - #8 State Of America
He won over this track and distance in November and has shaped well in a pair of Rosehill contests since. The rail is set out a fair way for this meeting, which will be a plus for him, adding a few extra metres to the distance given that he has won over as far as 2000m in the past. He should be ridden a little closer to the speed than last time, which should help his cause, and it would be a surprise if he is not right in the mix.

VALUE BET  - #3 Rogue Bear
Trained by Kris Lees, whose Dad was great friends with Jock Gollogly, who this race remembers, this would be an emotional winner for the stable. He has not quite finished out his last two races over 2000m as strongly as others, so the slight drop back to 1800m should be a positive for him. The most recent of those was in a BM78 at this track and, before that, the Taree Cup, so he has plenty to recommend him. Benjamin Osmond has won on him the only time he has ridden him, so that can be seen as a positive.

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A full book of 10 rides on the afternoon at Randwick for Tim Clark, including a number for his main stable of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. He also has a ride for Chris Waller and one for the powerful Ciaron Maher and David Eustace team. The prices on the betting sites suggest that he has some strong chances on the day.

R1 - #3 - Straight Charge - $1.55
R2 - #1 - I’m A Dirty Rascal - $3.40
R3 - #5 - Mazita - $4.80
R4 - #8 - Sebrenco - $15.00
R5 - #2 - Clear Choice - $4.00
R6 - #5 - Sonora - $26.00
R7 - #5 - With Your Blessing - $4.80
R8 - #3 - Lord Ardmore - $26.00
R9 - #6 - Too Much Caviar - $7.50
R10 - #11 - Master Showman - $6.00

It is not the strongest card in terms of quality, but the handicaps are fair, and there should be some great action on the track. Some horses stand out on the card and being handicaps, the prices will be of a good size.  

R3 - #4 - Sharp Stock - PLC$1.85
R8 - #4 - Waihaha Falls - PLC$2.00
R9 - #3 - Rogue Bear - PLC$3.25

Total Odds = $12.02
$50 Stake = $601.25 Return!

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1st: 3, 4, 6, 8

2nd: 3, 4, 6, 8

3rd: 3, 4, 6, 8

$50 stake = 208% Flexi