Saturday Racing Tips - Moonee Valley 28/10/23

Our Saturday tips come from Moonee Valley, where the Group 1 Cox Plate is the afternoon's feature race.

With just a week and a half until the Melbourne Cup, that must mean it’s Cox Plate day, and we’re off to the Valley to see who wins the 2040m contest. A race where the barrier draw is important is a day the betting industry looks forward to each year. We have a tip in the big race, along with a couple of others for the card, the usual jockey of the day and an exotic tip for the action.

(Note: Odds provided by PlayUp)

Selections:
#2 Wishlor Lass (NEXT BEST) - $2.40
#4 En Francais - $7.00
#1 Thalassophile - $6.00
#3 Osmose - $8.50

BEST BET - #2 Wishlor Lass
She was the winner of five of her seven career starts and showed a great attitude to salute in a Caulfield Group 3 on her most recent start. The runner-up that day joined her 100m out, but she fought back to gain the win. That second is an excellent guide to the level of form, which makes her the standout. She went from the front there, which is a perfect place to be on this track, and given her size, there should be progression from her for some time yet as she continues to mature. She should be hard to claw back from the front again.

THE DANGER - #4 En Francais
A wide barrier on both starts so far this preparation has not helped her cause, but she has still shown up well. Last time out, especially out in 18 at Murray Bridge, she looked like she was winning 200m out before a wide trip saw her run out of the win late on. Drawn to enjoy a much smoother passage now should help her run a big race for all that this is a better contest than those she has been competitive in. That might not stop her from still getting involved.  

VALUE BET  - #1 Thalassophile
Ideally suited by a little bit further than this, she has some solid efforts in the formbook that would give her a leading chance if things fall right. She tends to be held up in her races, which is not necessarily ideal at this track, but she stays this trip strongly, so she will be ready to punish them if they go too fast in the early stages. She finished second, the only time she has run at The Valley in the past, an experience that should help her now.

Selections:
#3 Verdad (BEST BET) - $2.70
#5 Snowman  - $4.40
#2 Air Assault - $6.50
#6 Port Lockroy - $7.50

BEST BET - #3 Verdad
He is a well-regarded type who was pitched into a Group 2 on his second career start at this track. He ran into subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner Griff on that occasion but was only beaten 0.3l. He could not get seriously involved in the Guineas himself but shaped as if he was ready for the move up to this distance. That level of form stands out here, and with a strong effort already to his credit at The Valley, he makes plenty of appeal in just his fourth race. Should have better efforts to come.

THE DANGER - #5 Snowman
Generally progressive in this preparation, he was impressive in a BM72 win at Rosehill at the end of September and didn’t shape badly in the Group 3 Gloaming at Randwick last time. He likes to race close to the pace, which has to be a positive at this track, but he melted late in the final 200m in the Gloaming over 1800m, so the step up to 2000m has to be a little bit of a concern for him. If he does stay, he holds strong claims of making the frame.

VALUE BET  - #2 Air Assault
Another who races on the speed he has been building with each run this prep in South Australia. The winner of a Listed contest over 1800m when last in action he should be fine over the extra 200m. This is a stronger level of company that he takes on now, but the way he races suggests that a track like The Valley will be to his liking. He deserves a shot at this level, and the booking of Damian Lane can only help matters. 

Selections:
#1 Romantic Warrior - $3.90
#11 Militarize (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $8.00
#8 Fangirl - $8.50
#3 Mr Brightside - $7.00

BEST BET - #1 Romantic Warrior
While he was disappointing in the Turnbull on his first run in Australia, we made a point at the time of mentioning the things that would be different for him. It is worth giving him the benefit of the doubt, given the strength of the opponents he has been beating in Hong Kong. Although in the opposite direction, this sharper track might feel a little more like home for him - now that he has the experience of how things are done here, he will be far more settled.

THE DANGER - #11 Militarize
There have been three three-year-old winners of this race in the last 19 renewals, each being roughies. They get a considerable weight allowance from their older rivals, so it is tempting to go with a smart one of this age group at a price. Things could not have gone worse for him in the Caulfield Guineas last time out. He was slow away from a wide gate and always fought an uphill battle from there, shaping well to finish 5th. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so the step up to this trip for the first time looks a plus - he needs to be more alert in the barriers at this track. If he can take a better position, he has a huge chance.

VALUE BET  - #8 Fangirl
Smart winning form in Sydney this preparation, she is fascinating stepping up to 2040m. She stays a mile very strongly - the quicker they go for her over 1600m, the better, so the visual impression is that she is well worth a try at this trip. There should be enough pace from Alligator Blood and Zaaki to let her settle early, which will help with any stamina queries. She has the turn of foot to make good use of the short home straight here.

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The 29-year-old is rapidly approaching 1400 domestic winners in his career and is set for a strong book of rides at The Valley on Saturday that includes several favourites with the horse racing bookmakers. More than 100 of those winners have come at Moonee Valley, a track where he has a 33% strike rate so far this season. 

R1 - #3 - Taunting - $2.20
R2 - #15 - Blue Stratum - $2.45
R3 - #2 - Wishlor Lass - $2.40
R4 - #14 - Gumdrops - $15.00
R6 - #6 - Nodachi - $14.00
R7 - #2 - Air Assault - $6.50
R8 - #3 - Uncommon James - $7.00
R9 - #2 - Zaaki - $18.00
R10 - #1 - Barber  - $5.00

The Valley can be a bit of a tricky track given they seem always to be left-hand down, and on the turn with a run for home of less than 200m, it requires jockeys to be very aware of their surroundings and the pace that is on with front runners doing well here. 

R3 - #2 - Wishlor Lass - PLC $1.28
R7 - #3 - Verdad - PLC $1.30
R9 - #11 - Militarize - PLC $2.60

Total Odds = $4.33
$50 Stake = $216.32 Return!

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There are a lot of exotic tips to enjoy in horse racing. If you don’t know how they work or need to brush up on your knowledge of them, check out our information page.

Moonee Valley Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R7)

1st: 2, 3, 5, 6
2nd: 2, 3, 5, 6
3rd: 2, 3, 5, 6
$50 stake = 208% Flexi