Saturday Racing Tips Randwick 30/09/23

The prices for Saturday have been on the online betting sites since Wednesday, and the markets look to be strong for one of the best cards of the spring so far at Randwick. A string of quality contests to enjoy, including a trio of Group 1s full of some of the best horses we have seen this spring. It is a card that will get the juices flowing when we have a roughie who would not be the price he is if he had been given a better ride last week, so we hope to cash in on that.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Best of the Day	Randwick Race 5 #1 Tom Kitten	Win: $2.30 Bet Now	Place: $1.48 Bet Now
Next Best	Randwick Race 6 #1 Tiz Invincible	Win: $2.70 Bet Now	Place: $1.50 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Randwick Race 8 #19 Waterford	Win: $15.00 Bet Now	Place: $4.60 Bet Now

Randwick Race 5 - Catanach’s Jewellers Dulcify Stakes Listed (1600m)

Selections:
#1 Tom Kitten (BEST BET)- $2.30
#6 Pushy - $6.50
#4 Cafe Millenium- $8.00
#11 Raf Attack - $11.00

BEST BET - #1 Tom Kitten
He started his prep with a bang when saluting in the Group 3 Up & Coming at Rosehill. That was over a trip too short for him, so it was to his huge credit that he managed to get his head in front just in time. The move up to 1500m at the same track last time suited him, but he was stuck out wide from barrier 13 in the Ming Dynasty, compromising his chance. He had to give kilos away all around on that occasion, so level weights massively favour him in this Listed contest. There is little reason to think any of those behind can reverse the places with him at the weights.

THE DANGER - #6 Pushy
We are unlikely to have seen the best of this Michael Freedman-trained gelding, given that he has only had three career starts. All three have been wins, stepping up into a Listed race to put his unbeaten record on the line against much stiffer opponents. The visual impression he has given is that he is more than ready to take on rivals such as these, tearing apart a Benchmark 68 at Newcastle when last seen in action.

VALUE BET - #4 Cafe Millenium
Behind Tom Kitten in the Ming Dynasty and like his old rival, he was undone by a wide barrier. He was held up last in the early stages, doing well to get as close as he did at the line, given how much ground he has to make up. He has not fared great in the barrier draw again for this contest, but he is at least not quite as wide as he was at Rosehill. This is a slightly more galloping track, which will suit him, as will the extra 100m.

Randwick Race 6 - Darley Flight Stakes Group 1 (1600m)

Selections:
#1 Tiz Invincible (NEXT BEST) - $2.70
#2 Kimochi - $5.50
#3 Tropical Squall - $7.00
#7 Mollynickers- $6.50

BEST BET - #1 Tiz Invincible
She has won over 1100m, 1200m and 1400m, a perfect three-for-three this prep. She has been in front of Kimochi the last two times at the same level weights as they meet here. She has her stamina to prove, stepping up to 1600m for the first time, but has not been stopping at the end of her races and shapes as if she will stay. Further in front of Kimochi, over 1400m than she was over 1200m, with that filly as her main rival once more, she can add a fourth win to her tally.

THE DANGER - #2 Kimochi
Connections will start to get sick of staring at Tiz Invincible’s backside, but she has done nothing wrong in either of those runner-up efforts. A wide passage was not a help to her most recently, and fans will be hoping that the fact that Tiz Invincible has a wide barrier in 13 this time will give their filly more chance to turn that form around. She only has a single win to her credit so far, so she is more of a place prospect, but she will run her usual solid race.

VALUE BET - #3 Tropical Squall
Behind the above pair in the Tea Rose when she went from the front. She had used those same tactics to win her first two starts, so she has fewer miles on the clock than her two main rivals, who have both had twice the amount of racing she has. Already far outstripped anything that her half-siblings produced in their racing careers, while the step up to 1600m has mixed messages on pedigree. A soft time if things on the front will help her chance - Adam Hyeronimus has to get the fractions perfect.

Randwick Race 8 - TAB Epsom Group 1 (1600m)

Selections:
#3 The Inevitable - $7.00
#8 Hope In Your Heart - $7.50
#19 Waterford (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $15.00
#11 Nugget - $9.00

BEST BET - #3 The Inevitable
The veteran runner has enjoyed a remarkable last 12 months. He finished off his last prep with a close-up third in the All Star Mile. Less than a length behind Mr Brightside that day, he was one position in front of Alligator Blood, form which has been boosted on multiple occasions this spring. He was behind Golden Mile in the Theo Marks first up, but that rival had the run of the race, and this gelding flew home over that 1300m, and he will be much better suited to the step back out to this 1600m. David Pires has an exceptional record when he has ridden him, winning six of seven.

THE DANGER - #8 Hope In Your Heart
Super mare started her prep with a huge run when third in the Tramway Stakes. She closed out her prior one when second in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf, with that level of form giving her a big chance in this contest. The booking of Craig Williams catches the eye. He won on her the only time he has had the ride in the past, a rare jockey booking for trainer Kerry Parker. That win was over this track and trip last October, the sole time that Parker and Wiliams combined last season.

VALUE BET - #19 Waterford
Given an awful ride last week, he was held up miles out of his ground in last place. He rocketed home up the straight and would have won if he had been able to take any position in the early stages. A barrier in 20 has to be a concern that this will not map out all that favourably for him, but he can make a big impact at this level. This is an extra 100m compared to last Saturday, which is a plus, and if young Zac Lloyd can get a better position on him than Tyler Schiller did last week, he is here with a massive chance at a roughie price.

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Jockey Of The Day – Zac Lloyd

Saturday has the potential to be a massive day for the apprentice. The prices on the betting apps suggest that this is going to be the day that Lloyd rides his first Group 1 winner, and if you’ve read our next best on the card, then you’ll know that we think that the 20yo is going to do precisely that in the Darley Flight Stakes.

R1 - #5 - State Of America - $3.80
R3 - #8 - Highness- $11.00
R4 - #13 - Altivo - $3.60
R5 - #16 - Limburg - $101.00
R6 - #1 - Tiz Invincible - $2.70
R8 - #19 - Waterford - $15.00
R9 - #13 - Military Mission - $41.00
R10 - #18 - Airman - $4.80