Saturday Racing Tips - Doomben 30/12/23

There is some good racing at Doomben on Saturday with a Group 3, a Listed race, and a couple of other classy contests. 

We are hoping that the horse racing bookmakers could have taken a bit of a chance pricing up our roughie at $34.00 this week, given that the heavy conditions will be perfect for her and that their ability to handle the ground is a massive plus. We will be back to kick off 2024 next Saturday. Until then, enjoy Doomben and a Happy New Year to you all. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#3 Show Me Mercy (BEST BET) - $2.50
#7 Zouphoria - $5.00
#4 Deep Respect - $6.50
#2 Chrysaor - $3.80

BEST BET - #3 Show Me Mercy
He won his first two starts over 1000m, showing improved form when he stepped out to 1200m, third in the Listed Gold Edition at Eagle Farm when he was last in action. The way he hit the line that day suggests that this further rise in distance to 1350m will suit him well. This is the first time he will have to race on a surface as soft as this, which he has to prove suits him as well as a good track does, but he is an improving type with plenty of class.

THE DANGER - #7 Zouphoria
Filly won her maiden on a Soft 7 track at Kensington, improving on that bare form when saluting in a BM78 on her last start. That handicap was against the girls, so she has more to do here, taking on the boys in a deeper race, but her proven ability on a soft track is a plus against her main rivals. She represents the powerful Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott combination, and after only five races, there should be better still to come from her.

VALUE BET  - #4 Deep Respect
He was well behind Show Me Mercy in the Gold Edition last time, but he did not help himself that day by racing too keenly. In that regard, the step out from 1200m to 1350m might not be ideal, but he did win over this track and distance back in September, so he has nothing to prove. This is the first time he has faced soft ground, which will give him something else to think about, but he is more than capable. 

Selections:
#2 Parisal - $3.60
#1 Comrade Rosa - $4.00
#13 Willinga Beast (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $34.00
#12 Chiny Boom - $7.00

BEST BET - #2 Parisal
1400m just stretched her stamina a little too far two starts back, but she bounced back to form when a close second at Flemington last time out. That was a Listed contest, as this one is, and she was a winner at Group 3 level back in August and then a runner-up in September in another Group 3. That success was on a Soft 7 track, so she might appreciate getting more dig in the ground here. She should be able to win at this level.

THE DANGER - #1 Comrade Rosa
Rated 104, she is well enough treated at these weights, given that she is the top-rated mare in the contest. She has a couple of wins on soft ground but is 0-3 when she has tried heavy, so she would not want any more rain. The winner of the Group 2 Dane Ripper back in June, she beat a strong field on that occasion, better than she faces here. She needs the ground not to be too deep to have a winning chance.

VALUE BET  - #13 Willinga Beast
A very wide draw over this distance is not the place to be, but this mare is a huge price partly due to this, so she has to be worth taking a chance on. When she has raced on good or soft ground, she is a combined 0-6. Her record on Heavy is a win, two seconds and a third in five starts, so the Heavy 8 at the time of writing will be perfect for her. She was fifth in the Group 3 Begonia Belle when she was last in action in November. That race has been solid in terms of a form guide since, with four winners coming out of the race. On this ground, she is overpriced.

Selections:
#4 Tamerlane - (NEXT BEST) - $4.60
#1 Zoustyle - $3.50
#8 The Face - $10.00
#17 Freedom Rally - $5.00

BEST BET - #4 Tamerlane
He was fourth in the Group 2 Damien Oliver, last time out, likes to get on with things, which could be a plus here, given the ground. He stays a little further than this, which will help if this is a proper test. When he raced on Soft 7 at Randwick in April, he won by over 3.5 lengths in a Benchmark 100. While he has run well in the deeper company since, that run is the big clue that this will be a winnable opportunity for him.

THE DANGER - #1 Zoustyle
He is 5/10 on soft ground but could not make the frame the only time he has been seen on heavy ground. He's an eight-year-old, so the fact that he has not raced on the ground this deep often suggests that connections think he doesn't want it this deep. Despite that, he is the class act in the race, and he was impressive on a Soft 6 track last time out at this course over 1200m. He steps out to 1350m, which is another slight question for him to answer, but his class can carry him into this.

VALUE BET  - #8 The Face
He has placed in three of the four times he has been seen on heavy ground, so these conditions are fine for him. The winner of three starts on the bounce, with two coming at this track, including on Soft 6 last time out. This is a deeper race for him to contend with, but he needs plenty of respect, given his current form. He might not find it quite so easy to get on the speed with Tamerlane in here, but he holds place chances. 

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Blake Shinn has many solid chances on Saturday at Doomben if the prices at the online betting sites are a good judge. A string of favourites on the card, including a pair that we think are the ones to beat in their respective races. Shinn looks set for a strong final Saturday in 2023. 

R1 - #9 - Fumiko - $5.00
R2 - #1 - Wolfgang - $1.30
R3 - #3 - Eaglemont - $2.40
R5 - #10 - Pacific Atlantic - $7.00
R6 - #2 - Dune Forty Five - $8.00
R7 - #4 - Deep Respect - $6.50
R8 - #2 - Parisal - $3.60
R9 - #4 - Tamerlane - $4.60
R10 - #7 - Navas Two - $3.40

It's a larger multitip than is often the case on a Saturday with one of the biggest-priced roughies we have put up. Doomben is a large oval with long turns at either end of the straight. A touch over 1,700m around, there is a straight of about 350m, allowing all runners to get their chance. 

R7 - #3 - Show Me Mercy - PLC$1.30
R8 - #13 - Willinga Beast - PLC$7.50
R9 - #4 - Tamerlane - PLC$2.00

Total Odds = $19.50
$50 Stake = $975 Return!

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Doomben Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)

1st: 1, 2, 12, 13

2nd: 1, 2, 12, 13

3rd: 1, 2, 12, 13

$50 stake = 208% Flexi