NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | February 14

Only six NBA games will take place this Wednesday Australia time, and a few of them look likely to be pretty lopsided. The Magic and Thunder will kick off proceedings with a game between two of the most improved teams of the season, while the Bucks and the Heat will face off in one of the more intriguing games of the day and, later on, the Kings will host the Suns. Check out our three best bets for the day’s action below. 

Kristaps Porzingis to score 25+ points | $3.30 with PlayUp 

Starting off with a value bet, with NBA betting sites offering in excess of $3 for an event which has occurred four times in succession. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 20.4 points per game for the season, slightly above his over/under line set for this game of 19.5, but in recent games he has been playing a whole lot better than that. He has scored at least 25 points in each of his last four games, averaging 29 per game in that time. He has been shooting well, but not unsustainably so, getting close to 20 shots a night in that time and making them count. His tail is well and truly up and the Celtics are taking full advantage of it, and against the struggling Nets there is no reason to believe that his hot streak won’t continue. The over/under points total of 19.5 looks a lot too low, and if you want to be a little more risk averse then simply taking the over at close to even money odds could be a good bet too. But for a little extra value, given that he has been surpassing this total easily for a number of games now, the 25-point total looks like a quality bet. 

Magic +2.5 @ $1.90 | $1.90 with GetSetBet 

Home court isn’t everything in basketball, but it can certainly play a pretty significant role. In this game, it may well decide the winner. Both of these have really big discrepancies in their performances at home vs away throughout the course of the season, and in particular in recent times. The Magic are an impressive 17-7 in Orlando compared to 12-17 on the road, and have won their last three games there – two of which came by 15 points or more. The Thunder, similarly, have been dominant at home and only average on the road. While they’ve won an impressive 21 of 27 games in Oklahoma City, on the road their record sits at only 15-11. What’s more, they have lost three on the trot outside of the comfort of their home stadium, and all of them in particularly disappointing fashion. Their last away game was a 35-point shellacking at the hands of the Mavericks while the game before they lost to the Jazz, and their most recent away game prior to that saw them go down by 16 points to the Pistons, of all teams. The Thunder are a really good team, but that is a bad stretch of form. They bounced back with a win at home against the Kings in their last outing, but that was just a one-game home stand before they’ve had to jet off to Orlando. They’ve been bouncing around the country for a week now and that, combined with their own indifferent form away and the Magic’s excellent form at home, could give Orlando the edge. For a little more value the Magic to win outright looks a decent bet too at around $2.15 with most betting agencies, but to play it safe I’ve taken their 2.5 point head start. 

Trail Blazers under 103.5 total match points | $1.90 with BlueBet 

The primary reason for the Timberwolves’ rapid ascent up the Western Conference standings this season has been their defence, with their defensive rating of 108.6 the best in the NBA by a decent margin. Within their last six games, they’ve kept three of the top seven offences in the league to 105 points or less, while they’ve also kept the Rockets to just 90 points within that period. The Blazers certainly don’t fit into that same category. They have the second worst offensive rating in the league, and have failed to pass 108 points in three of their last four games – including an 84-point effort against the Peliicans in their latest outing. They played the Timberwolves just a month ago, and it was little surprise to see that they struggled mightily to score, managing just 93 points in that game. Their offence is particularly struggling of late while the Timberwolves seemed to have ramped up their Gobert-led defence even further, so again it seems like the Blazers will likely struggle to crack triple figures. Their over/under of 103.5 looks a little too high.