NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | January 17

Wednesday Australia time isn’t a big day on the NBA front in terms of quantity, but that’s certainly made up for in quality. Each of the three games set to take place throughout the course of the day involves two teams with hopes not just of making the playoffs, but of advancing well beyond the early stages, and each of these games could feasibly be matchups that we see in the postseason. It kicks off with a clash between the Sixers and the Nuggets, before the Suns host the Kings and then the Clippers host the Thunder to round out the day. Check out our three best bets for the day’s action below.

Joel Embiid to have 30+ points and 10+ assists same game multi  | $2.20 with BlueBet

Joel Embiid is on the verge of breaking a very long-standing record, and if his recent performances are anything to go by he will make sure that he does just that – making better than even money odds for him to do it look extremely tempting. It’s been over 50 years since somebody last had 16 consecutive games of at least 30 points and 10 rebounds, a feat which Kareem Abdul-Jabbar achieved back in the 1971-72 season. Embiid is one game off tying that record. The reigning MVP has been on the streak since mid-November, and though in many games he has got to those numbers easily, there have been plenty of games in which he’s unashamedly made sure he got to them. In fact, in his last three games he has scored 30, 31 and 31 points, and in two of those he had ten rebounds exactly. He’s getting minutes later in games which aren’t close than he probably would normally to ensure he sustains the streak, and is ensuring he gets those late rebounds and points when he’s on the floor. That’s not a slight – he is the most dominant player in the NBA and can get 30 and 10 in his sleep most nights, but the fact that he is actively seeking out those numbers gives a really nice buffer which isn’t necessarily reflected in the odds you’ll get on most NBA betting sites. Given he’s done this 15 times in a row, odds of over $2 are pretty tasty regardless, so add in the fact that he’ll do whatever he can to get them and you’ve got yourself a pretty nice bet. 

Clippers -5.5  | $1.96 with GetSetBet 

It doesn’t feel right to tip against the Thunder no matter the circumstances at the moment. They have been brilliant all season and are consistently punching seemingly out of their weight division, or at least the weight division that their relative lack of experience would dictate they should be in. The reality is that while they still have plenty of scope for growth they are already a damn good team, but despite that, this looks like it will be a really tough game for them to cover the line in. The Clippers have been just about the best team in the business for a couple of months now, with their four-point loss to the Timberwolves in their last game just their fourth of their past 21 games, but more importantly for the sake of this match, they have also won 11 of their last 12 on their home floor. The Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden trio is firing on all cylinders while Russell Westbrook is providing all the punch that you would expect off the bench, and at Staples Center – or Crypto.com Arena as they seem to be calling it these days – they have only been more potent. What’s more, the Thunder will be playing the second leg of a Los Angeles back to back after they take on the Lakers in what will likely have been another tough game the day prior. The Clippers have won by more than the 5.5 point line set by betting agencies for this game in 9 of their last 12 home games, and though the Thunder will prove a very difficult opponent, on the second leg of a back to back they will likely struggle to keep pace for the full 48 minutes. 

Domantas Sabonis to have a triple double | $3.10 with PlayUp 

Let’s finish with another player prop, once again centred around one of the most talented big men in the league. Domantas Sabonis might not quite be at the level of Joel Embiid, but he is pretty damn good, and is in some fine form in recent weeks. One of the best passing centres in history, Sabonis would likely get more recognition if it wasn’t for the fact that he is in the league at the same time as Nikola Jokic. He is a walking triple-double threat, but he does tend to go through phases of notching them up with a lot more regularity, and right now he is in one of those phases. The rebounding typically isn’t a problem – he leads the league in that category with 12.7 per game and it’s rare that he doesn’t get double figure boards, while points is no issue whatsoever. That leaves us with assists, and recently he’s been getting to ten more often than not. His last game was a big triple-double with 15 assists accompanying 13 boards and 21 points against the Bucks, but it wasn’t exactly an outlier; that was the fifth triple double he has managed in the past nine games at a rate of over 50% over a relatively lengthy period of time. That would suggest that his odds to do it should be closer to $2 if not less, but instead we can get him at over $3 with betting sites. What’s more, this should be a really high scoring game against a high scoring but leaky Suns team, with the over/under points total set at a very high 242.5 points. Against any opposition this would look like value, and against the Suns it looks like a really good value bet.