NRL 2024 Round 17 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Round 16 began with an entertaining Friday night clash which saw the Storm beat the Dolphins 30-24, but that was all she wrote in terms of close game for the weekend. In a shortened round of action with just five games taking place, the round opener was the only remotely close matchup, each of the other four games being decided by 14 points or more and a couple – one, in particular – by substantially more. This weekend, normality almost resumes in terms of scheduling with only three teams enjoying the bye and seven games taking place, though with State of Origin Game 2 being played next Wednesday there will be a lot of sub-full strength teams taking to the park. Regardless, there are a lot of enticing games set to take place across the course of the weekend; let’s dive right in take a look at each and every one of them. 

The Bulldogs and the Sharks kick off Round 17 in what could be a really entertaining clash, and while the visitors will be refreshed after a week off, the Bulldogs will be keen to bounce back for their first really poor performance in many months. After three consecutive wins and having not lost by more than six points since Round 2,  the Bulldogs proved no match for the impressive Roosters, going down 26-8 in Gosford. After an hour the Roosters had scored three tries to two, but with a penalty goal added into the mix, as well as the fact that the Roosters converted each of those tries and the Bulldogs neither of theirs, the scoreboard was a lot more lopsided than those try numbers would suggest, and when Blake Steep made it 26-8 in the 65th minute the game was all but over.  
 
The Sharks, meanwhile, had a week to think about a disappointing two-point loss to the Dolphins a fortnight ago which made it three losses in the past four games after they won nine of their first ten. They are still sitting pretty in third with a two-game gap over the Roosters in fourth, but with the Raiders only one game behind them but all the way back in tenth, the Sharks don’t want to be conceding any more ground. These two teams have already come up against one another more than three months ago and the Sharks won that one 25-6, but the Bulldogs, last weekend notwithstanding, have been a substantially better side than they showed in that opening fortnight all season – on their home turf in particular. They remain the only undefeated side at home in the league having won all six there, and they look like pretty good value to record what will likely be a tight win this Friday night. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$2.45
	Bulldogs +4.5	$1.91
	Bulldogs 1-12	$3.60

Predicted Squads

Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jaeman Salmon 13. Bailey Hayward 14. Jake Turpin 15. Josh Curran 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Jacob Preston

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Thomas Hazelton 16. Sifa Talakai 17. Royce Hunt

It was less than a year ago that the Warriors and the Broncos met in a Preliminary Final, but coming into this game they both find themselves in desperate need of a win. The Warriors have lost a couple in a row, and while the first was a forgivable 14-point defeat at the hands of the Storm, last week’s was a little harder to explain. They were completely pulverised by the 16th-placed Titans, who piled on five tries in the first half and six more in the second to run out 66-6 winners. That was perhaps the worst defeat any team has endured all season, and while the Warriors remain just a game and a half out of the top eight that loss was a big red flag in terms of their ability to work their way into finals contention. 
 
The Broncos, meanwhile, are a little more comfortable up in seventh spot, but they have now lost three on the trot and after last week’s bye, have not tasted success since the 17th of May. All is far from lost for them despite that losing streak, but with just a game separating them in each direction from 4th spot and 12th spot, it’s safe to say they are perched precariously on the ladder. They will also be without a number of key players with Origin just a few days after this game, making putting an end to their run of losses that little bit tougher. But the Broncos remain, at their best, one of the pre-eminent sides in the competition, and after last week’s disaster it’s very hard to tip the Warriors in this one. Back on their home turf they should put in a substantially better effort than they did against the Titans – not that that will be particularly hard – but the Broncos can sneak over the line for their eighth win of the season. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Broncos to win	$1.62
	Broncos 1-12	$3.20
	Broncos 1-10	$3.60

Predicted Squads

New Zealand Warriors: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 7. Te Maire Martin 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Marata Niukore 12. Mitch Barnett 13. Tohu Harris 14. Chanel Harris-Tavita 15. Dylan Walker 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Kurt Capewell

Brisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Jock Madden 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jack Gosiewski 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Fletcher Baker

After three consecutive defeats the Knights are in desperate need of a win, so a clash at home against the now bottom-of-the-ladder Eels couldn’t come at a better time. In fairness to Newcastle, those three defeats haven’t all been disasters; the first, a 32-2 shellacking at the hands of the Bulldogs, certainly was, but since then they have lost by eight points to first the Storm and then the Panthers prior to last week’s bye, and against the three-time reigning Premiers were within two points at the hour-mark. 
 
The Eels have lost a couple in a row themselves, but harking back further their record is even more miserable, with just one win in their past eight games. But while they have continued to tumble down the ladder in recent weeks and last week fell to last courtesy of wins for both the Titans and the Tigers, they have actually been much better-performed over the past three weeks – that form unsurprisingly coinciding with the returns of Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson. They beat the Sharks three weeks ago and in the last fortnight have lost close games to the Bulldogs and Roosters, so despite sitting in last they are certainly not out of this contest. Moses will be up against it to back up after his Wednesday night Origin appearance but is expected to play; at what capacity, however, remains to be seen. The Eels are in decent form and should be able to make the Knights work for this one, but on their home turf, Newcastle can keep pace with the top eight with an important win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Knights to win	$1.81
	Knights -1.5	$1.91
	Knights 1-12	$3.15

Predicted Squads

Newcastle Knights: 1. Fletcher Sharpe 2. Enari Tuala 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Adam Elliott 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Brodie Jones 17. Jack Hetherington

Parramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Blaize Talagi 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitch Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Joey Lussick 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Makahesi Makatoa

• The Tigers have got within 22 points of the Roosters just once in their last six matchups; the line for this game is set at just 15.5 and Sydney comes into it in strong form. 
• The Bulldogs are yet to lose a game at home all season. 
• The Dolphins have demonstrated a penchant for close games this year, and their last four wins have all come by 12 points or less. 

Multi of the Week

The Storm just keep getting it done. With a couple of key players sitting out in the lead-up to State of Origin Game 2 last Friday night they were faced with a tough match-up against an impressive Dolphins outfit up at Suncorp Stadium, and as expected they were given a tough contest by the home side. But after entering the half-time break with scores locked at 18 apiece, they scored the first two tries of the second half to establish a 10-point lead, and though the Dolphins hit back, the Storm held on for a 30-24 victory. That was their third in a row and kept them a game ahead of the Panthers and Sharks on top of the NRL ladder, and with their Origin players likely to return for a home game against the Raiders, they should be able to stay there for at least another week. 
 
The Raiders, as they did last year, have managed to hang on to a spot in the top eight for a lot longer than many would have expected thanks in no small part to a bunch of close wins, but the wheels appear to be falling off in the nation’s capital. They’ve lost their last two games by a combined total of 42 points, and last week’s was an unmitigated disaster as they went down 48-24 to the Tigers – and it’s not as though they had Origin absentees to blame. Tom Starling will likely return this week but that’s about it, and if this team puts in a similar effort to what they did last year then they will be in for an ugly defeat against the top of the table Storm. Hopefully they can make more of a contest of this than they did last weekend, but this should be a big win for the home side.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Storm to win	$1.20
	Storm -14.5	$1.91
	Storm 13+	$1.82

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Nick Meaney 5. Grant Anderson 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Sua Fa'alogo 15. Christian Welch 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Jack Howarth

Canberra Raiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matt Timoko 4. Seb Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Kaeo Weekes 8. Josh Papalii 9. Danny Levi 10. Joe Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Tom Starling 15. Ata Mariota 16. Trey Mooney 17. Emre Guler

After a couple of impressive wins in a row the Dragons were unable to maintain their form in their last match, proving no match for the Sea Eagles a fortnight ago. They have three players competing in State of Origin Game 2, but given they all played on a short back-up after Game 1 they should be out there this Sunday. The Dragons will need them, too, up against a Dolphins team that has proven really difficult to beat all year. 
 
The Dolphins have, in fact, lost three of their last four and fallen out of the top four as a result, but their six-point defeat at the hands of the Storm last weekend was the heaviest they have suffered during that period and a two-point win over the Sharks the week prior was really impressive. They are also a good chance of getting Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Felise Kaufusi back from Origin duties after they sat out last week, with a four-day turnaround likely to be enough to get them back out on the park for what is a really important game. Outside of the top four on points difference alone but only a game clear of the Raiders in 10th, the Dolphins’ season is balanced on a knife’s edge, and with the Dragons one of those teams sitting a game behind them, so too is theirs. But though the Dragons have been good at home this year and have outperformed the expectations of basically everyone, the Dolphins should be good enough to get the job done in this one. They aren’t the type of team to blow their opposition out of the water and a close one could certainly be on the cards, but needing a win to stay in touch with the top four and potentially jump back into it, the Dolphins can earn a hard-fought victory. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dolphins to win	$1.90
	Dolphins 1-12	$3.30
	Dolphins 1-10	$3.70

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Jack Bird 5. Mathew Feagai 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Blake Lawrie 15. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 16. Ben Murdoch-Masila 17. Toby Couchman

The Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Tesi Niu 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Kenny Bromwich 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Euan Aitken 13. Max Plath 14. Josh Kerr 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Tevita Pangai Junior

Every team has to play the Panthers at some point and getting them either side of Origin is ideal given the raft of representative players they have, but unfortunately for the Cowboys, this game being played on a Sunday means that each of Jarome Luai, Isaah Yeo, Brian To’o and Dylan Edwards are good chances of backing up from Wednesday’s Game 2. And with Mitch Kenny and Jack Cole set to return, the three-time reigning Premiers are getting closer and closer to full strength, though Nathan Cleary is of course a very notable absentee – he is a chance to return the following week.  
 
Of course, the Cowboys have plenty of Origin representatives themselves so the Sunday game won’t bother them too much, but even with them back they will have their work cut out in Penrith. They have been in decent form of late though, winning four of their last five prior to last week’s bye to sneak inside the top eight as we enter the last couple or months or so of the season. But as are plenty of teams, they are placed very precariously, with both 4th and 12th just one game either side of them. A win here would be a bonus for the Cowboys and would give their finals hopes a massive boost, but the Panthers have lost just one game at home all year. This doesn’t look likely to be their second. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers to win	$1.29
	Panthers -11.5	$1.90
	Panthers 13+	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Penrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To'o 6. Jack Cole 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Henry 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Daine Laurie 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Mavrik Geyer 17. Trent  Toelau

North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Villiami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Reuben Cotter 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame

The round concludes with what looms as a pretty one-sided affair between a red-hot Roosters team and the Tigers, though Wests are coming off two consecutive wins which have helped haul them off the bottom of the ladder. The first of those wins came by eight points against the Titans, but more impressive was their effort against a disappointing Raiders last week, when they put up 48 points en route to a 24-point win. That was their biggest score of the year by some margin and their equal second highest since way back in 2015, so there was good reason for their long-suffering fans to enjoy the rout they dished out.  
 
But the Roosters won’t be allowing anything of the sort this weekend. They have finally done the inevitable and jumped inside the top four, where they will be fully intending to remain for the rest of the season. They have won three of their last four games easily, and while the lone exception was a disappointing two-point loss to the Cowboys, they are still well positioned at 9-6 and, importantly, with the best points difference in the league by a long way. This game offers them a great chance to extend that lead. Recent games between these two have, unsurprisingly, been dominated by the Roosters, who have won seven in a row against the Tigers by an average of over 26, their last three by an average of over 41, and harking back much, much further, 17 of their last 18. That is a dominant record, and while the Tigers come into this game after a couple of strong weeks, they will likely be brought back to earth by the Roosters on Sunday night. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Roosters -15.5	$1.91
	Roosters 13+	$1.72
	Over 52.5 total match point	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Ethan King 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Naufahu Whyte 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Terrell May

Wests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Solomona Faataape 3. Brent Naden 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Fonua Pole 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Justin Matamua 14. Sione Fainu 15. Alex Seyfarth 16. Alex Twal 17. Reuben Porter

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