NRL 2024 Round 21 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

Round 20 of the NRL season delivered three two-point games out of the seven played across the weekend, with the Raiders beating the Warriors, the Panthers beating the Dolphins and the Cowboys knocking off the Bulldogs by that margin. Elsewhere, the Storm made a massive statement with a comfortable win over the Roosters, while the Broncos finally got back on the winners’ list with a pivotal win against the Knights. The ladder remains as tight as ever with just two games separating the Bulldogs in 6th from the Knights in 13th, and with just seven weeks to go that means that most games for the rest of the season will carry plenty of weight. This weekend is no exception. Among the highlights include a Broncos vs Bulldogs clash at Suncorp, the Cowboys hosting the Sharks and the Roosters taking on the Sea Eagles. Below, we take a detailed look at each of those games, and the rest to take place over the course of Round 21.  

The Warriors’ loss to the Raiders last weekend may just spell the end of their season. Certainly they remain a mathematical chance to play finals, but with two and a half games separating them from 8th spot and only seven games to go they are seriously up against it. That loss was a quintessential heartbreaker; despite scoring four tries to three, their inability to convert saw them go down by two points, with a potential game-tying try to Addin Fonua-Blake in the 72nd minute ultimately proving insufficient after the conversion was missed. They can hardly afford to lose for the rest of the year if they’re to play finals, and though they do have a relatively cushy draw it’s still very much a long shot. But they should, at least, be able to keep their chances alive for another week when they host the Tigers this Friday night. 
 
The bottom placed Tigers continued their losing ways with a 14-point defeat at the hands of the Rabbitohs last weekend, taking their record to 4-14. As has been the case pretty regularly of late, they were nowhere near it defensively, giving up 42 points to the Bunnies the week after they conceded 58 against the Sharks. Admittedly they have played some pretty good teams over the past month, but they have now conceded 40 or more points in four consecutive games and an average of 45 in that time. The Warriors haven’t exactly been humming offensively of late, but this is a good opportunity for them to put up a decent score. They will no doubt be deflated after last week’s loss, but this should be a comfortable bounce back victory for the Warriors to keep their very slim finals hopes alive for another week. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Warriors -12.5	$1.91
	Warriors to win	$1.26
	Over 48.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

New Zealand Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Moala Graham-Taufa 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitch Barnett 11. Marata Niukore 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Dylan Walker 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Chanel Harris-Tavita 16. Jackson Ford 17. Jazz Tevaga

Wests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Junior Tupou 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Solomona Faataape 5. Charlie Staines 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Api Koroisau 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. David Klemmer 11. John Bateman 12. Samuela Fainu 13. Isaiah Papali'i 14. Latu Fainu 15. Alex Twal 16. Fonua Pole 17. Sione Fainu

The Eels have now lost five games on the trot following their eight-point defeat to the Titans last weekend, continuing what has been a dreadful season for the 2022 Grand Finalists. As far as five-game losing streaks go it hasn’t been the worst; their biggest loss during it has been 16 points and their second biggest ten, though there is a pretty good chance that all changes this weekend. The Eels have been significantly better at home than they have away – where they are 0-8 on the year – but playing in Parramatta isn’t likely to do them much good against the might of the Storm this weekend. 
 
Having held a two-game lead atop the ladder for some time now, the Storm were handed what loomed as a really difficult test against the red-hot Roosters last weekend, and they passed with flying colours. Though they have hardly been losing this season, the Storm haven’t exactly been demolishing opponents all that often, instead seeming to consistently do just enough to get the job done. But on the weekend, they showed that they are seemingly capable of doing that against any team in the league. The home side raced out to a 14-4 lead at half-time and didn’t look back, with a couple of penalty goals and another try leading them to a 24-8 win over one of the three runaway Premiership favourites – the other two being the Storm themselves and the Panthers. With just seven weeks to go it’s looking increasingly likely that the Storm will finish top, and with another game back to third they will almost certainly earn a home Qualifying Final. Another win this weekend would get them even closer to that goal, and they should have no problems securing it against the lowly Eels.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Eels +16.5	$1.91
	Storm to win	$1.15
	Under 51.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Parramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Jake Tago 3. Will Penisini 4. Blaize Talagi 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Brendan Hands 10. Joe Ofahengaue 11. Ryan Matterson 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Shaun Lane 14. Matthew Arthur 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Makahesi Makatoa

Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Sualauvi Faalogo 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Alec MacDonald

One of the best games of the weekend will see the Broncos host the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon in a game which has massive repercussions for both these two teams, and plenty of others around them. The Broncos are finally back on the winners’ list after knocking off the Knights by 16 points last week, and that victory couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. The reigning Grand Finalists had somehow managed to lose six games on the trot to put their finals hopes in jeopardy, and another loss would have probably spelt the end of their season. They’re still two games out of the top eight, however, and with the Bulldogs one of the teams sitting two games ahead of them this is one they really need to win. 
 
Canterbury’s woes away from home continued last weekend, though as has been the case all season, it wasn’t as though they played poorly. Again, they suffered a tight defeat away from home, going down by just two points to the Cowboys in an enthralling game on Sunday night. They led that one entering the final ten minutes and with a win would have jumped to within just points difference of the top four, but alas it wasn’t to be and instead they find themselves hanging onto a spot in the top eight courtesy only of points difference. Their record away from home now sits at 1-8 – in contrast to their home record of 8-0 – which doesn’t bode particularly well in the lead up to a trip to Suncorp Stadium. The Bulldogs have not been nearly as bad travelling as that record would suggest though and should be able to take it up to the Broncos, but now that last year’s runners-up are back on the winners’ list, they can continue on their winning ways with a tight win in a high-quality game. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Broncos to win	$1.39
	Broncos 1-12	$3.00
	Bulldogs +9.5	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Deine Mariner 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Xavier Willison 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Blake Mozer 15. Tyson Smoothy 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau

Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Harry Hayes 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Poasa Faamausili

• The Rabbitohs have won six of their last seven games, while the Raiders have won just two of their last seven – and those two wins came by a combined total of three points. 
• Five of the Roosters last six games have seen 46 points or less scored, while only two of the Sea Eagles last eleven games have seen over 50 points scored. The line for this game is set at 50.5 points. 
• Since Round 2, the Bulldogs have lost just a solitary game by more than six points, so tough as the Broncos will be to beat at home, it’s hard to see them winning by a big margin. 

Multi of the Week

With their season hanging by a thread, the Cowboys came through with the goods last Sunday, a 70th minute try seeing them snatch a two-point lead which they wouldn’t relinquish against the Bulldogs. They have now won three of their last four games, one of those coming against the Panthers, and with the only loss being by a point to the Sea Eagles they could easily be on a four-game winning streak. That has seen them jump inside the top eight and just two games (and points difference) back from the four, but there are a host of teams snapping at their heels and a loss to the Sharks this weekend will very possibly see them fall out of the top eight. 
 
The Sharks, of course, have not been quite the team that they were for the first half of the season in recent weeks. They lost three games on the trot prior to their most recent game against the Tigers, falling from top spot down to 4th in the process, but they got the confidence-boosting win they needed in that game, beating the bottom team 58-6 before enjoying a couple of free points courtesy of the bye last weekend. They remain a game and a half clear inside the top four and are still well placed to secure the double chance, but there is no denying that they have dropped off over the past month or so. A win here would be massive for their top four chances, but the Cowboys have been playing at a higher level for the past few weeks, and on their home turf they can secure a pivotal close win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cowboys -1.5	$1.91
	Cowboys to win	$1.81
	Cowboys 1-12	$3.20

Predicted Squads

North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Josh Curran 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Harry Hayes 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Poasa Faamausili

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Ronaldo Mulitalo 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Sifa Talakai 5. Kayal Iro 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Royce Hunt 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Thomas Hazelton 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

After winning four games on the trot by an average of 23 points, the Roosters were doing a good job as establishing themselves as the league’s best hope of preventing a fourth consecutive Panthers Premiership, but that standing took a bit of a hit last weekend. Coming up against their main competitor to that title in the Storm, they were battered around in an impressive display from the team sitting on top of the ladder, ultimately being beaten 24-8. But there is no need to sound the alarm bells just yet. The Roosters are still sitting in the top four and will likely benefit significantly from the fact that they have the best points difference in the league by some margin – something which is not just tangibly useful in that they will finish ahead of any team they end up with the same record as, but also a good indication of just how good they have been this year. On the other side of the coin, however, they are just a game clear of the Dragons in 9th, and with the team they are playing this weekend just half a game back from them, another loss will see them fall out of the top four and potentially drop a few extra spots on top of that too. 
 
The home team will enter this one as favourites and deservedly so, but the Sea Eagles need to be treated with plenty of caution. They have been solid all season but are in red hot form of late, having won three games on the trot and their last two by 38 and 30 points. But those games were both at home – where Manly is 8-2 – and against significantly inferior teams to the Roosters. Daly Cherry-Evans and the Trbojevic twins will, for what has been a rare occasion, all suit up together, with no injuries or Origin duties to get in the way, and that alone makes them a danger. But despite their loss last week, the Roosters are close to the best team in the league for good reason. This is a pivotal game for both sides, but with their spot in the top four in jeopardy, the Roosters can bounce back with a hard-fought win against a good opposition. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Roosters to win	$1.47
	Roosters 1-12	$3.10
	Under 50.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Sitili Tupouniua 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Terrell May 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Connor Watson 14. Sandon Smith 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Naufahu Whyte

Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tommy Talau 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Karl Lawton 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Nathan Brown 17. Toafofoa Sipley

The idea of the Dragons actually making the finals has felt a little like a pipe dream all year, but here we are, just seven weeks out from the end of the regular season, and with them sitting just a game outside of the top four. But while they are right in the mix at this late stage of the year, the next few weeks are going to be a serious test for this team, starting with a clash with the Panthers this weekend – which will be followed by games against the Storm and then the Bulldogs. Last time the Dragons faced the Panthers they actually won by 12 points, but that was an Origin-affected clash, and they won’t have the benefit of playing an opposition which is far from full-strength this weekend. 
 
The Panthers did just enough against the Dolphins last weekend. After going down 26-12 they scored the last two tries of the game to get within two points – the returning Nathan Cleary converting them both, before he reminded the NRL world of his worth – not that anyone had forgotten – with a match-tying penalty goal in the 75th minute. The game went to golden point, and within a minute, lo and behold it was Cleary who took the reigns, hoofing through a field goal in the 81st minute to secure a pivotal win for the reigning Premiers. That kept them a game clear in the top two, a position they will have no intention of leaving again this season. At long last they have Cleary back fit and firing and will not have players missing or recovering from Origin, and with close to a full strength team on the park they should be able to pick up another win this weekend and put a significant dent in the Dragons’ finals hopes in the process. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers -11.5	$1.91
	Panthers to win	$1.27
	Panthers 13+	$2.05

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Max Feagai 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin 11. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 12. Jaydn Su'A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Jack Bird 15. Hame Sele 16. Luciano Leilua 17. Toby Couchman

Penrith Panthers: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Matthew Eisenhuth

The Dolphins were impressive for much of their game against the Panthers last weekend, but having opened up a 14-point lead they will be extremely frustrated to have let that one slip. Had they won they would be sitting in 5th spot and only outside of the top four on points difference; they’re only back in 7th instead, but with so little separating the teams in that part of the ladder that one loss will likely have significant repercussions on where they finish. Fortunately for them, they get a great chance to bounce back this weekend when they host the Titans. 
 
The Titans have certainly given fans some reason for optimism this year despite the fact that they will likely finish bottom four, though last week was far from their best effort. After securing three consecutive wins in an impressive little purple patch, they were pounded by the Sea Eagles in Manly, going down 38-8 to end their winning streak. For the most part this year they have been really competitive and losses such as that have been unlikely, so the Dolphins certainly cannot afford to take them lightly. But the Dolphins have been just about as reliable as anyone this year, and dropping games that they shouldn’t has been something they have been able to avoid doing very often at all. This is exactly one of those games, and with so much on the line the home team should be able to bounce back with an important win to keep themselves locked away inside the top eight. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dolphins -5.5	$1.91
	Dolphins to win	$1.53
	Dolphins 7+	$2.01

Predicted Squads

The Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Max Plath 10. Tevita Pangai Junior 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich 14. Josh Kerr 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Trai Fuller

Gold Coast Titans: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall 14. Isaac Liu 15. Klese Haas 16. Keenan Palasia 17. Josiah Pahulu

The round concludes with an intriguing game between two sides on the outside of the top eight looking in, both of whom are pretty unlikely to play finals but who equally are not yet out of the race. The Raiders sit just a game outside of the top eight courtesy of a thrilling win last weekend when they knocked off the Warriors by two points, continuing their extraordinary penchant for close wins which has defined their past two seasons. Their record is now 8-9, but their points difference is -91 – the fourth worst in the league. But important as that win was, the way they have been playing for some time would suggest it will be hard for them to work their way into the top eight over the coming weeks. They had lost four in a row prior to the win over the Warriors – but having said that, another win this weekend would keep them right in the hunt. 
 
But they certainly won’t have things all their own way against the Rabbitohs. The Bunnies bizarre season has seen them, at various points, a near Premiership favourite, a Wooden Spoon favourite and now somewhere in between, and though they have work to do they are not entirely out of the finals race just yet. After a five-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Dolphins a fortnight ago, they bounced back last weekend, doing what they needed to against the Tigers en route to a 14-point win. They are still two games out of the top eight and, with a poor points differential, it’s really closer to three, but with a win this weekend they can keep their unlikely finals hopes alive. Poor as they were for the first ten weeks of the season, they have now won six out of their last seven games and aside from the Broncos might be the best team outside of the top eight. If they lose this one we can all but put a line through their unlikely finals hopes, but they have been playing better than the Raiders for the past month or two and look like great value to pick up another win this Sunday afternoon. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Rabbitohs +3.5	$1.91
	Rabbitohs to win	$2.00
	Rabbitohs 1-12	$3.50

Predicted Squads

Canberra Raiders: 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Kieran Foran 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Erin Clark 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall 14. Isaac Liu 15. Klese Haas 16. Keenan Palasia 17. Josiah Pahulu

South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Taane Milne 4. Michael Chee Kam 5. Jacob Gagai 6. Jack Wighton 7. Cody Walker 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Tallis Duncan 12. Jacob Host 13. Keaon Koloamatangi 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Tom Burgess 16. Siliva Havili 17. Liam Le Blanc

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