NRL 2024 Finals Week One – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The NRL Finals are finally upon us. Seven of the competing teams have been readying themselves for this weekend for some time, while the Knights snuck into the much-coveted 8th position literally at the last hurdle, beating the Dolphins by eight points in the final game of the regular season to earn their spot in the finals. Their reward is a trip to Townsville to take on the in-form Cowboys on Saturday night, while elsewhere, the Panthers host the Roosters and the Storm host the Sharks in the two Qualifying Finals on Friday night and Saturday afternoon, while the first week of finals concludes with the Bulldogs hosting the Sea Eagles on Sunday. Take a look at our detailed previews for all four games set to take place this weekend below. 

The NRL Finals will kick off with a bang when the Panthers host the Roosters in what looms as the most enticing matchup of the weekend, and one which could very easily be repeated on Grand Final Day – though the Storm, of course, are likely to have plenty to say about that. The Panthers were in and out of 2nd spot like a yoyo over the past few weeks – for a period they seemed almost guaranteed to finish just behind the Storm, but consecutive losses to first that Storm team and then the Raiders saw them fall to 4th. But just as quickly as they lost a grip on that home Qualifying Final, they got it back, with losses for both the Roosters and Sharks enabling the three-time reigning Premiers to re-ascend the ladder. Now, they are very well-placed to make a charge at what would be an incredible fourth consecutive Premiership. As we have seen time and time again they have another level to go to in the finals, and what’s more they enter these with virtually a full bill of health. Nathan Cleary, of course, is the major question mark. He is set to return from a shoulder injury soon, but whether he gets up for this weekend remains to be seen. There is no denying just how significant a boost his presence will be, though the Panthers have demonstrated they are still more than capable of beating anyone on their day without him. 
 
The Roosters, however, will pose a serious test. They ended the season as easily the most dangerous offensive team in the league, and having put up 34 points or more in five of their last six games (each of which they won) they are entering the finals with some hot form behind them. They ended the season with a points difference of 275, which was the best in the league by a fairly significant margin too and nearly 100 points better than that of the Panthers. The main concern for Sydney, however, is their ability to do that against the best teams in the league. Penrith, as usual, were the stingiest defensive team in the league this season, allowing just 394 points all season – an average over just over 14 per game – so the Roosters certainly won’t be waltzing past the try line like they have been able to so often this year. That has manifested already this season in previous games against both the Panthers and the Storm – their other main contender for the Premiership. The Roosters are 0-3 in games against those two this season, and in those games have scored a total of just 36 points – an average of 12 per game. By no means does that mean that they are not capable of winning this game, but in a quintessential matchup between offence and defence, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the stifling defence of the Panthers will win out in a much more low-scoring game than the Roosters are used to. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers to win	$1.42
	Panthers 1-12	$2.90
	Under 40.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Penrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Trent Toelau 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 
2. Daniel Tupou 
3. Joseph Suaalii 
4. Joey Manu 
5. Dom Young 
6. Luke Keary 
7. Sandon Smith 
8. Spencer Leniu 
9. Connor Watson 
10. Lindsay Collins 
11. Angus Crichton 
12. Sitili Tupouniua 
13. Nat Butcher 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 
15. Naufahu Whyte 
16. Siua Wong 
17. Terrell May

It has been a long wait for the finals for the Storm, who have been games clear on top of the ladder for months and have long been all-but guaranteed top spot. That means a big mindset change will be needed this weekend in a game of far more importance than what they have played for some time, though it isn’t as though they have been taking their foot off the pedal with the minor Premiership wrapped up. They come into the finals with four wins from their last five games, the latest of which saw them bounce back from a loss to the Cowboys with an absolutely dominant performance against the Broncos in a game which they won 50-12. And they are set to get even better this weekend with the return of Ryan Papenhuyzen. With Xavier Coates having been eased back into action in Round 27, the Storm have close to a full list to choose from, a luxury that they have not been afforded all that often this year, and having been the best team in the league despite that fact they are clearly going to be extremely tough to oust these finals.  
 
It's the Sharks who have been given the unenviable task of having the first crack at them, and though they come into the finals in some fine form they are going to have their work cut out for them this Saturday. Cronulla had a great start and great finish to the season, with a very average run of form in the middle, but five wins from their last six games was enough for them to secure the double chance. In their final outing before the finals, they impressively knocked off the Sea Eagles by 20 points and in Manly no less, where Trbojevic and co had previously lost just two games all season. Make no mistake, even if the Sharks are widely viewed as a rung below the big three in this year’s Premiership race, this is a very good team. They have a 2-1 record this season against those three teams, having played them in three consecutive games, though that was way back in May. During that patch they beat the Storm by seven points in the only game between the two sides this year, and as this game will be, that game took place in AAMI Park. But with a home Preliminary Final on the line, it is hard to see history repeating itself this weekend. That was one of just two games the Storm lost at home all season, and they should be able to avoid adding to that tally and booking themselves in for yet another prelim. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Storm -9.5	$1.86
	Storm to win	$1.30
	Storm 7+	$1.68

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Christian Welch 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 17. Sifa Talakai

While the Qualifying Final matchups looked relatively set for the last couple of weeks, there was a lot more uncertainty surrounding the bottom half of the top eight, and even entering the final round of the season neither of these teams looked likely to finish where they ultimately did. But strong wins for both of them saw the Cowboys leapfrog the Bulldogs into 5th and the Knights scrape into the finals, setting up this clash in Townsville on Saturday evening. The Cowboys come into the finals in some lethal form having won six of their last seven, and there have been some impressive wins among those too. The run started with a win over the Bulldogs, while they subsequently beat both the Sharks and Storm before probably their most impressive win of the season last weekend. With another game against the Bulldogs, who had hardly lost a game by more than a couple of points since the first two weeks of the season, to determine who finished 5th and with the loser potentially set to lose a grip on a home Elimination Final, the Cowboys were nothing short of phenomenal. They headed to Accor Stadium, wher the Bulldogs had a 10-1 record, and by half-time were up 20-0, and they didn’t let up in the second either, ultimately running out 44-6 winners. That was the kind of performance which suggests that they are perhaps the most capable team in the bottom half of the eight of making a deep run in the finals, and if they play like that this weekend it’s hard to see how the Knights can stop them. 
 
Newcastle do, at least, enter the season with some strong form behind them, having won three games in a row to snatch a finals spot for the second consecutive year. The last of those was a genuine regular season Elimination Final, the last game of Round 27 and one in which the winner was guaranteed 8th spot and the loser was guaranteed to miss out. As expected, that game was played with a finals-like intensity and points were very difficult to come by, the Knights entering the half-time break with just a 6-0 lead. They extended that to 14-0 by the 53-minute mark, though the Dolphins gave themselves a chance with a try in the 70th minute. But that was all she wrote, with the Knights doing what they needed to do over the last ten minutes to secure their spot in the finals. They will be hellbent on avoiding simply making up the numbers, which realistically is what many see them as doing given that there has been a clear top seven for some time. With the strong form they have displayed in the last three weeks behind them the Knights will be feeling reasonably good about themselves, but the Cowboys are a much better team than the three sides their opponents have beat in a row, particularly in the form that they are currently in. The home side in this game can at times be difficult to trust, but they have been really consistent for an extended period of time now, and after last week’s performance are looking imposing entering the finals. This looms as the most one-sided matchup of week one of the finals, and the Cowboys should be able to win it on their home turf relatively easily. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cowboys -7.5	$1.91
	Cowboys to win	$1.42
	Cowboys 13+	$2.55

Predicted Squads

North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Villiami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame

Newcastle Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Fletcher Sharpe 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jack Cogger 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Adam Elliott 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Kai Pearce-Paul 17. Brodie Jones

• The Bulldogs might have lost their last two at Accor Stadium, but prior to that they were 10 for 10 at home. The Sea Eagles, meanwhile, are 4-7 this year away from Manly. 
• The Cowboys have been in rampant form of late, with three of their last four wins coming by at least 18 points each and an average of 31.3. 
• As good as the Roosters have been this year, they are 0-3 against the Storm and the Panthers, their two main contenders for the Premiership. 

Multi of the Week

It would have felt unjust for the Bulldogs to miss out on a home Elimination Final given how impressive they have been this season, but with two losses in a row to round out the season they put their fate in the hands of the gods in Round 27. That was an uncharacteristic fortnight – a 12-point loss to the Sea Eagles followed by, inexplicably, a 38-point loss to the Cowboys last weekend, two results that marked their only two defeats at home all year. The second of those meant that Manly had the capacity to slip past them into 6th spot, but with them losing their own Round 27 clash the Bulldogs clung onto that all-important home ground advantage. And given they are 10-2 at home and 4-8 away this season – and the Sea Eagles have a similarly lopsided record – that could be significant, though as mentioned they have just lost two games in a row at Accor Stadium. Still, the Bulldogs, the last two weeks of the season notwithstanding, have been terrific this season, and between Round 2 and Round 26 they lost just a solitary game by more than one score. They have proven an ability to go with every team in the league, and despite their poor form over the past fortnight, the other finals sides will be keeping a very wary eye on them. The Bulldogs are more than capable of going deep into the finals, but equally, with a tough Elimination Final matchup they could just as easily be knocked out straight away. 
 
The Sea Eagles best has been very solid this year and they have been relatively consistent for the most part, though that consistency has certainly waned over recent weeks. They have traded wins for losses over the past month, beating the Warriors easily, somehow losing to the Tigers, beating the Bulldogs as mentioned, before losing comfortably to the Sharks last weekend. They are, however, set to receive a massive boost this weekend with Tom Trbojevic returning from a shoulder injury, giving them close to a full bill of health and putting all of their big guns on the park. That unequivocally will make them a much more dangerous team, and given that they beat the Bulldogs at Accor Stadium just a fortnight ago they do have plenty of reason to enter this game with a solid dose of confidence. But there is no denying that the Bulldogs’ have been the better team this year. Their form over the past fortnight is certainly cause for some concern for the home side and if they dish up the kind of performances they have in that time – particularly last week – then an impressive season could very easily be ended prematurely. But having played so well, surely the Bulldogs can pull it together this week, and earn their way through to a semi-final with a solid win over the Sea Eagles. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.85
	Bulldogs -1.5	$1.95
	Bulldogs 7+	$2.60

Predicted Squads

Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Sam Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Harry Hayes 17. Josh Curran

Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Tommy Talau 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Matt Lodge 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Ben Trbojevic 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown

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