AFL 2024 Round 10 – Betting tips & Predictions

Round 9 of the AFL season started and finished with a bang, with a one-point win for the Blues over the Dees kicking off the weekend’s action and a draw between the Crows and the Lions rounding it out a couple of days later. Sandwiched in between those games were a number of upsets; the Bombers beat the Giants as they attempt to establish themselves in the upper echelon of the ladder for the first time in a couple of decades, the Power knocked off the Cats in Geelong, while the Hawks beat the Saints by five points. This weekend will see a number of important games take place particularly over the first couple of days, with the Suns taking on the Cats in Darwin to start the round’s proceedings, the Swans hosting the Blues in perhaps the game of the round the next evening, before the Pies face the Crows and the Giants play the Dogs on Saturday afternoon. Below, we’ve previewed all nine games set to take place over the course of the weekend. 

The Suns have traded wins for losses for six weeks in a row now, and as has been the case for so long with the AFL’s second newest team, are proving more than capable of beating the teams below them – and relatively comfortably at that – but unable to match it with the best. This weekend they’ll look to change all that when they face the Cats, but based on their results so far this year they will have their work cut out. During this topsy-turvy six-week period, their three wins have come by an average of nearly 53 points against the Hawks, Kangaroos and Eagles, while their losses have been by an average of over 38 points against the Giants, Swans and Lions. There is a pretty clear distinction between those two groups of teams, and the Cats very much fit into the latter category. Despite suffering two losses in a row they still find themselves in second place on the ladder after they banked seven wins in their first seven games, and though they were admittedly very disappointing in the first half of last week’s loss to the Power, they showed what they were capable of in the second half and, were there a few more minutes in that game, would very possibly have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. After such a strong start to the year they have not been at their absolute best the past couple of weeks, but against a Suns side which is yet to prove its capable of beating the top teams, the Cats should be too strong on neutral territory. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$1.80
	Cats +2.5	$1.91
	Cats 1-39	$2.30

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, C. Ballard, B. Uwland HB: A. Sexton, S. Flanders, M. Andrew C: M. Rowell, T. Miller, S. Clohesy HF: J. Rogers, B. Long, L. Johnston F: J. Walter, B. King, J. Lukosius FOLL: J. Witts - C, N. Anderson, A. Davies I/C: J. Jeffrey, B. Ainsworth, T. Berry, N. Holman, B. Humphrey EMG: B. Fiorini, S. Day, D. Swallow

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: Z. Guthrie, T. Stewart - C, M. Holmes C: M. O’Connor, B. Parfitt, M. Blicavs HF: O. Dempsey, S. Neale, G. Miers F: T. Stengle, T. Hawkins, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, C. Guthrie, M. Duncan I/C: B. Close, J. Bowes, T. Atkins, T. Bruhn, G. Rohan EMG: Z. Tuohy, O. Mullin, J. Clark

The game of the round takes place in Sydney on Friday night, with a Swans team which seems to be getting stronger with each passing week hosting the Blues, who are coming off a stirring one-point defeat of the Demons. Since surprisingly handing the Tigers their only win of the season to date, the Swans have won five games on the trot in increasingly impressive fashion, the latest victory coming when they strangled the Dockers in Western Australia en route to a dominant 87-39 win. Granted they benefitted from some woeful kicking from their opponents, but nonetheless it was a resounding performance against a team which has not really been put away easily by anyone so far this season. With the Swans having knocked off the Giants by five goals the week before, they have established themselves as the pre-eminent team in the competition so far this year, and will prove a very difficult test even for a team with the Blues’ capability. Carlton suffered two tight losses in a row to good teams, first going down to the Cats by 13 and then the Pies by 5, but they bounced back last week with a one-point win over a fast finishing Dees outfit. Having also knocked off the Giants a month ago, this game continues an incredibly tough run of games for the Blues. Going 2-2 over that month with both losses tight ones is certainly no disaster and suggests they should be able to go with the Swans in this game, but particularly at the SCG it’s impossible to go past the home side right now. Expect this to be an extremely high-quality game and in the tight confines of the SCG, the contested ability of both teams – with players like Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner running around – will play a pivotal role in the game’s outcome, but the Swans can run out winners by a couple of goals. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.47
	Swans 1-24	$3.35
	Swans 1-39	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: A. Francis, D. Rampe - C, L. Melican HB: H. Cunningham, O. Florent, N. Blakey C: E. Gulden, Ch. Warner, J. Lloyd HF: J. Jordon, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, J. McInerney, H. McLean, L. Parker, R. Fox EMG: C. Mitchell, P. Ladhams, B. Campbell

Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, L. Cowan HB: A. Cincotta, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: J. Martin, H. McKay, E. Hollands F: M. Owies, C. Curnow, T. De Koning FOLL: M. Pittonet, S. Walsh, M. Kennedy I/C: J. Boyd, J. Binns, M. Cottrell, G. Hewett, C. Durdin EMG: D. Cuningham, Le. Young, O. Fantasia

The Magpies’ slow start to the season has quickly become little more than a distant memory, with six consecutive weeks having now passed without a loss after they dropped their first three games of the season. Last week’s was nothing in particular to write home about, but they did what they needed to do against the Eagles, notching up a dominant 103-37 victory to take their record to 5-1-3. They are still only in eighth place but are climbing rapidly and will likely continue to do so; something which their opponents this weekend are also looking to do after overcoming their own indifferent start to the year. The Crows dropped their first four games in a season in which finals were very much expected, but since then they have been really good. Their only loss came by just three points to the Bombers, while they had also knocked off the Blues by two points, pumped the Kangaroos and beaten the Power comfortably, before last week they concluded Round 10 with a thrilling draw at Adelaide Oval against the Lions. They are beginning to find the form which made them such a dangerous side – albeit one which missed the finals – last year, and after being written off far too quickly by the AFL media after a slow start – who would have guessed!? – they have put themselves right back in the hunt to play in September with a strong past month. But rarely do Collingwood go into a game in Melbourne not expected to win, and this is no different. The Crows have a really good run of games coming up, taking on the Eagles, Hawks and Tigers over the next three weeks, and should be able to just about put themselves inside the top eight by the end of the next month. But this game will be a different story. They took the Pies to within a couple of points twice last year and if they’re at their best can keep this competitive, but the home side should be too strong and continue their ascent up the ladder with a win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.35
	Magpies 1-39	$2.15
	Over 167.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, J. Dean HB: I. Quaynor, J. Noble, O. Markov C: S. Pendlebury, J. De Goey, J. Daicos HF: W. Hoskin-Elliott, B. Frampton, R. McInnes F: P. Lipinski, B. Hill, D. Cameron FOLL: M. Cox, J. Crisp, N. Daicos I/C: F. Macrae, T. Mitchell, J. Richards, L. Sullivan, S. Sidebottom EMG: E. Allan, A. Begg, C. Dean

Kuwarna (Adelaide) Crows: B: D. Curtin, J. Butts, C. Jones HB: J. Borlase, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: M. Hinge, J. Soligo, J. Dawson - C HF: L. Sholl, T. Walker, J. Rachele F: E. Himmelberg, D. Fogarty, I. Rankine FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, B. Keays I/C: M. Crouch, L. Nankervis, B. Smith, B. Cook, N. McHenry EMG: C. Burgess, S. Berry, L. Murphy

• The Eagles haven’t booted more than 63 points against the Demons in their last three games, averaging under 55 per game in that time. 
• The Tigers average just under 53 points per game in their last five outings, and in the last three they haven’t scored 50 points and average just 44.33 per game. 
• The Swans haven’t lost a game at home all year, but the Blues have not been defeated by more than 15 points this year. 

Multi of the Week

After establishing themselves as perhaps the best team in the league over the first few weeks of the season, the Giants have had a tough month, losing three of their last four games. The first couple of those were forgivable coming up against the Blues and the Swans, but last week was the first game they’ve lost that they were widely expected to win, the improved Bombers knocking them off by 20 points at Marvel Stadium. Despite those hiccups, however, this is still one of the Premiership favourites for good reason, and back on their home turf this weekend they will be confident in their ability to get back on the winners’ list, even against a team coming off a 91-point victory last week. The Bulldogs, and in particular Luke Beveridge, could hardly have needed that win more after back to back losses to first the Dockers and then the Hawks, and they were excellent against a lacklustre Tigers team. But impressive though they were in that performance, their dominance only served to further highlight the enormous gap between the ceiling and the floor of this side. At their best they are a really good team, capable of moving the ball as anyone and scoring heavily, but they are unable to replicate on any sort of consistent basis and haven’t been for many years. If they bring the kind of performance they showed last weekend this will be a really good game, but if the Bulldogs of the week prior shows up this will be a bloodbath. The Doggies are often able to take it up to really quality teams in much the same vein that they are vulnerable against the lower sides, and after a big performance last week they will hopefully be able to bring something resembling their best form to Giants Stadium. GWS, however, are as good as anyone in the league at their best, and back on their home turf after a disappointing few weeks they should be able to get the four points regardless of which incarnation of the Dogs turns up. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants to win	$1.40
	Giants 1-39	$2.25
	Under 181.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Perryman HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, L. Ash C: N. Haynes, J. Kelly, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, A. Cadman, T. Bedford F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, J. Peatling FOLL: K. Briggs, C. Ward, S. Coniglio I/C: D. Jones, T. Green, H. Himmelberg, J. Riccardi, C. Stone EMG: J. Peatling, J. Wehr, M. Gruzewski

Western Bulldogs: B: L. Bramble, L. Jones, B. Dale HB: T. Duryea, A. Keath, J. Johannisen C: B. Williams, A. Treloar, J. Freijah HF: R. Sanders, A. Naughton, R. Garcia F: J. Harmes, J. Ugle-Hagan, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, E. Richards I/C: L. Cleary, S. Darcy, H. Gallagher, J. Macrae, J. O’Donnell EMG: R. Lobb, C. Daniel, A. Jones

2024 is not going quite to plan for the Saints. No one realistically expected them to be competing right at the top end this year, but after making the finals last season, a 3-6 start to the year is a long way from what they would have wanted. They have now lost four of their last five games, and the latest of them was the most disappointing of the lot, a five-point defeat to the 15th-placed Hawks in which they managed just 53 points. As is generally the case with Ross Lyon led sides, they have been able to restrict opposing teams’ scoring relatively effectively all year, but it’s at the other end of the field that they have struggled, and against a Dockers team which has conceded less points than every team except for the Demons and Swans this year, those offensive struggles will likely be highlighted this weekend. Despite sitting in ninth spot, the Dockers have actually been pretty solid this year, with two of their four losses coming after they led within the last couple of minutes of the game. Last weekend’s performance against the Swans was really only the second game in which they have really struggled – the first coming against the Eagles a few weeks prior – and given that there were some very difficult off-field circumstances for them to deal with in the lead-up to the game, and the fact that they could easily have been a whole lot closer did they not kick 4. 15, the loss wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked. They have not typically been renowned for their ability to carry their form across the Nullarbor, but their suffocating defensive structures should prove too much for the Saints to deal with this Saturday. Expect a low-scoring arm wrestle of a game, but the visitors are the better team and can get back on the winners’ list with a win at Marvel Stadium. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$2.05
	Dockers 1-39	$2.55
	Under 147.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Euro Yroke (St. Kilda) Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: R. Bonner, J. Sinclair, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: A. Hastie, L. Stocker, M. Wood HF: D. Wilson, B. Hill, L. Henry F: M. Owens, M. King, J. Hayes FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, M. Windhager I/C: A. Caminiti, T. Membrey, J. Webster, B. Paton, M. Phillipou EMG: R. Byrnes, S. Ross, T. Campbell

Walyalup (Fremantle) Dockers: B: B. Walker, A. Pearce - C, J. Draper HB: H. Chapman, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, A. Brayshaw, H. Young HF: J. O’Meara, J. Treacy, M. Frederick F: S. Switkowski, J. Amiss, T. Emmett FOLL: L. Jackson, C. Serong, N. Fyfe I/C: M. Walters, B. Banfield, M. Johnson, J. Aish, P. Voss EMG: C. Wagner, L. Reidy, H. Davies

The Lions have very slowly been turning their season around after a disastrous start, but they are still in pretty major need of a win. They should have no troubles getting it this week. Brisbane have been solid enough the last couple of weeks, flexing their muscle in the Q-Clash against the Suns, while last week they were decent against the Crows but ultimately fell short of the full four points, the siren sounding with the scores locked 90 points apiece. Those four points should come a lot easier this week, and a fair chunk of percentage will likely accompany up against the struggling Tigers. Richmond was really competitive early in the season despite having a raft of injuries to deal with, but having only notched up one win in that time to go with a number of close losses they have gradually fallen off a cliff over the last two weeks. Since quarter time against the Eagles a month ago they have really struggled, conceding a big early lead to lose that game by 39 points, losing to the Demons by 43 points, then the Dockers by 54, and last week the Dogs by 91 in a pretty uninspiring performance. Their injuries would be hard for any team to deal with let alone a rebuilding one, and it got worse last week with a few more, potentially leaving just 26 fit players to choose from this year. But that doesn’t excuse their effort over the past couple of weeks, with the senior players left in the team by and large failing to fire in the way that they need to in order to keep this team competitive. The Tigers will gradually get players back but a number of their most important are out for an extended period, and it’s become increasingly apparent over the past few weeks that this will be a long season for a team which so recently won three flags in four years. Even with a full list to choose from this would likely be a solid win for the Lions, but with only just enough players to fill their bench, the Tigers could be in for another pumping this Saturday night. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions -43.5	$1.90
	Lions 40+	$1.75
	Tigers under 61.5 total match points	$1.85

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, C. McKenna C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: K. Lohmann, J. Daniher, B. Reville FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: C. Ah Chee, L. Morris, N. Answerth, H. Sharp, S. Brain

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, T. Young HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, M. Pickett, K. McIntosh HF: R. Mansell, S. Bolton, L. Baker F: N. Balta, D. Martin, M. Lefau FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, D. Prestia, T. Dow I/C: J. Short, D. Grimes, N. Cumberland, K. McAuliffe, T. Sonsie EMG: K. Smith, S. Ryan, S. Green

One of the more prominent questions on the AFL agenda this week surrounds just how good the Bombers are. Given how long they have been nothing more than a mediocre team, it’s perhaps a little harder to credit their improvement than it should be, but they are doing plenty right in the early stages of the season. In perhaps the biggest surprise on the AFL ladder, they find themselves in third place nine games into the season, but there is a caveat – despite being at 6-1-2, they have a percentage of just 98. 3%, better than only the bottom four. That is often a pretty sound indicator of an overperforming team and it’s not very likely that they will stay as high as they are on the ladder, but in the past three weeks they have drawn with the Magpies and last week knocked off the Giants in their best performance of the season, and with every passing week it seems far more likely that their strong start to the year is a result of genuine improvement, rather than a flash in the pan run of form. And with a game against the Kangaroos this week and the Tigers the next, there is every chance that they find themselves 8-1-2 in a fortnight’s time. The Kangaroos are well and truly locked in bottom place on the ladder and will likely remain their for the rest of the season, with last week’s 68-point loss to the Suns their ninth in as many games this season and yet another uncompetitive effort. They don’t really look capable of getting particularly close to anyone in the league at the moment, and with the Bombers playing the way they are at the minute this should be an easy win. Essendon have disappointed their fans plenty in the past, but surely they will win this one by a big margin. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bombers 40+	$1.55
	Bombers 25+	$1.26
	Bombers -47.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers: B: D. Heppell, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: M. Guelfi, D. Parish, J. Kelly HF: S. Durham, K. Langford, J. Gresham F: H. Jones, P. Wright, A. Perkins FOLL: T. Goldstein, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: B. Hobbs, N. Cox, N. Hind, J. Stringer, A. Davey Jnr EMG: E. Tsatas, D. Shiel, S. Weideman

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: C. Comben, A. Corr, L. McDonald - C HB: C. McKercher, H. Sheezel, R. Hardeman C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF: J. Stephenson, T. Powell, Z. Fisher F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, W. Phillips I/C: C. Lazzaro, H. Greenwood, Z. Duursma, J. Simpkin, B. Drury EMG: L. Shiels, T. Pink, E. Ford

The Power and the Hawks were two of the surprise winners of last weekend, both knocking off seemingly better teams than they are. For the Hawks that made it three wins in four games after a bad start to the season, but the win for the Power was much more significant. They have established themselves as, once again, a good team so far this season, but for the most part they were viewed as a tier below the top six or so from which most believe the Premier will come. Heading down to the Cattery and knocking off the Cats was a great way to flip that narrative on its head. They were dominant from the outset of that game and in the first half looked as good as anyone has all year – and all that without captain Connor Rozee. Their second half was admittedly disappointing, but nonetheless they held on for a strong which will cause plenty to recalibrate their expectations of what the Power are capable of this year. For that to happen, however, they really need to back it up this week. There is reason for optimism at Hawthorn but they are still most likely a bottom four or five side this year, though they are the kind of team capable of springing a surprise, and after three wins in four weeks the Power won’t want to take them likely. But particularly in Adelaide, the Power are a really tough team to beat, and though the Hawks head west with some good form behind them, the home side should be much too strong in this one and can finally win two in a row after weeks of alternating wins for losses. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power -32.5	$1.88
	Power 25+	$1.60
	Over 170.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide) Power: B: K. Farrell, B. Zerk-Thatcher, A. Aliir HB: M. Bergman, E. Ratugolea, D. Houston C: J. Sinn, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, M. Georgiades F: T. Boak, C. Dixon, W. Rioli FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters - C I/C: J. Mead, J. McEntee, R. Burton, F. Evans, J. Finlayson EMG: D. Williams, T. Clurey, W. Lorenz

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Weddle, S. Frost, M. D’Ambrosio HB: J. Scrimshaw, W. Day, C. Mackenzie C: J. Impey, D. Moore - C, K. Amon HF: C. Nash, J. Gunston, B. Hardwick F: J. Ginnivan, L. Breust, N. Watson FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Macdonald I/C: S. Mitchell, C. Dear, J. Worpel, J. Serong, F. Maginness EMG: E. Phillips, J. Ward, H. Morrison

The Eagles have displayed plenty of improvement over the past few weeks – admittedly coming from a very low base – but they will need every bit of that to be competitive against the Demons this weekend. After winning two games on the trot against first the Tigers and then the Dockers, they’ve lost their last three but were competitive enough in the first two of them. Against the Magpies last weekend, however, that didn’t continue, as they booted just five goals in a 66-point loss. Up against one of the stingiest teams in the league from a defensive perspective, they will likely struggle to put too many points on the board once again on Sunday afternoon. The Dees were uncharacteristically leaky early against the Blues last week, conceding five goals to none in a bizarre first quarter, but they locked down thereafter and very nearly managed to secure a very unlikely victory, ultimately falling just a point short. That took them to 6-3, enough for fourth place on the ladder, and with a few winnable games in the coming weeks they should be able to solidify that spot in the top four over the next month or so. The Dees don’t generally have too many problems getting the job done against teams they should be beating easily, so it’s hard to see the Eagles getting particularly close here despite their improvement. Expect the Demons to keep them to a pretty low score, and though the visitors probably won’t be booting 20+ goals themselves, they should be able to secure a big win to conclude Round 10. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons -29.5	$1.88
	Demons 25+	$1.70
	Eagles under 65.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Waalitj Marawar (West Coast) Eagles: B: J. McGovern, T. Barrass, L. Duggan - C HB: B. Hough, J. McGovern, T. Cole C: D. Sheed, T. Kelly, L. Edwards HF: J. Petruccelle, L. Ryan, J. Cripps F: J. Waterman, J. Darling, J. Williams FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, H. Reid I/C: J. Hunt, C. Chesser, A. Witherden, J. Rotham, R. Ginbey

Narrm (Melbourne) Demons: B: B. Howes, S. May, T. Rivers HB: J. McVee, J. Lever, C. Salem C: J. Billings, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF: E. Langdon, H. Petty, K. Pickett F: J. van Rooyen, B. Fritsch, D. Turner FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, C. Petracca I/C: J. Bowey, A. Neal-Bullen, T. Sparrow, K. Chandler, T. McDonald EMG: B. Laurie, M. Hore, B. Brown

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