AFLW 2023 Round 10 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

We’re down to the final round of the AFLW home and away season, but there is still plenty left to be decided. There are theoretically 13 teams who can still make the top eight – though Fremantle would need a miracle – while further up the ladder, both the Suns and the Bombers, who sit fifth and sixth, can jump inside the top four – and they happen to be playing each other. There are big games littered all across the weekend, so let’s jump in and take a look at how each of them is shaping up.

A weekend filled with major matchups which will determine the shape of the final eight kicks off with arguably the most significant among them. The Suns and the Bombers sit in sixth and fifth respectively with one round to go, and pending the weekend’s results could both theoretically finish inside the top four, or miss the top eight entirely. It’s an understatement to say that this is a big game. The Suns enter the matchup as the only team in the finals hunt with a draw, rendering their percentage irrelevant, but with a win they’ll certainly jump over the Bombers, and could surpass the Lions, the Kangaroos or both if those teams lose (noting that the Lions are playing the top of the table Demons). A loss, meanwhile, will mean they need two or less of the Cats, Swans, Saints and Magpies to win if they’re to play finals. The situation is similar for the Bombers. A win will have them right in the mix for the top four, though they’re a little safer in the case of a loss – courtesy of their extra two points, they’ll only miss the finals if three or more of the aforementioned teams win and two of them make up a significant amount of percentage. Put simply, if the Bombers lose a close game, they’ll probably still play finals. And that outcome is very much on the cards. They’re in better form than the Suns of late, but with this one taking place up in the heart of Queensland and the Suns having lost just one game at home this season, Gold Coast can secure a finals berth and give themselves a top four chance with a close win.

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: W Randell 15 M Girvan 25 HB: V Saad 39 L.Ahrens 7 G Clayden 18 C: N McLaughlin 11 C.Whitfort 4 E Keaney 30 HF: D D’Arcy 20 J Dupuy 27 J Stanton 17 F: T Bohanna 12 M Brancatisano 5 FOLL: L.Bella 2 A.Drennan 33 E Maurer 10 I/C: J Smith 1 D Davies 3 L Single 13 G Biedenweg-Webster 16 T Meyer 34 E: C McCrossan 14 J Membrey 21 G Davies 22

Essendon Bombers: B: E.Gamble 14 G Clarke 17 HB: A.Morcom 25 B.Brown 36 M.Busch 28 C: M.Dyke 16 A Clarke 33 G Nanscawen 5 HF: K.Jacques 7 S Van De Heuvel 27 B.Toogood - C 8 F:  S.Alexander 24 P.Scott 32 FOLL: S.Wales 30 J.Vogt 10 M.Prespakis 4 I/C: G Gee 2 M Van Dyke 19 A Radford 22 B Walker 9 J Wuetschner 21 E: R.Tierney 23 L Williamson 13 A Van Loon 26

I mentioned above that both the Lions and Kangaroos could theoretically lose their hold on a top four spot this weekend; for the Kangaroos, however, that is a very unlikely outcome. Needing a win to assure them of a spot in the top four, they get to play the bottom placed side in the Western Bulldogs. Admittedly the Doggies are coming off their first win of the season, but that was a hard-fought eight-point defeat of the equally struggling Eagles, to whom the Kangaroos are not remotely comparable. North Melbourne have been one of the better sides all season, and though they are coming off two straight losses there is no need to sound the alarm just yet. Those defeats came at the hands of the only two sides ahead of them on the ladder, the latest of which was a three-point loss to the Crows in Adelaide. They remain as strong a defensive side as any in the league, and their percentage of over 200 is owed largely to the fact that they’ve conceded significantly less points than any other side in the competition. That doesn’t bode particularly well for the Bulldogs’ chances of kicking a decent score this weekend. They managed to ensure they won’t go winless this season last weekend, and having secured those four points, the Bulldogs may be in for a much tougher outing this Saturday.

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: I.Grant 3 N.Ferres 16 HB: E.Georgostathis 17 I.Pritchard 4 S.Hartwig 15 C: R.Wilcox 37 J.Fitzgerald 23 E Snell 1 HF: D Carruthers 13 G.Newton 5 R Cranston 30 F: M.Brown 20 H Woodley 19 FOLL: A Edmons 33 E.Blackburn - C 2 K.Lamb 27 I/C: A.Smith 24 D Bateman 8 K McLeod 6 B Gutknecht 18 B Hunt 21 E: M Gorham 26 J.Borg 25 S.Skinner 29

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: E.Shannon 11 J.Ferguson 20 HB: E.O’Shea 14 S.Wright 17 E.Kearney - C 9 C: A.Smith 15 M.King 23 T.Gatt 8 HF: B.Eddey 3 K.Shierlaw 33 A.O'Loughlin 6 F: T.Randall 16 E.King 60 FOLL: K.Rennie 26 J.Garner 25 A.Riddell 7 I/C: T.Craven 5 N Bresnehan 12 J.Bruton 35 N.Martin 28 E.Gavalas 22 E: L.Burke 29 R.Tripodi 19 L.McGrath 1

One of few games this weekend which won’t warrant all that much attention from opposing teams, this clash between the Power and the Giants will be the last of the year for both teams. Between them, they’ve won just three games, while the Power have also managed a draw, and find themselves firmly entrenched in the bottom four. Port have at least been relatively competitive most weeks of late – the exception being a hammering at the hands of the Kangaroos three weeks ago – with three of their last five games being decided by single figure margins and another a 15-point loss. The Giants, meanwhile, have actually struck some winning form late in the season. They’ve managed to snare both of their two wins this season within the last month, one against the Eagles and another, impressively, against the Blues, though last weekend they were disappointing against the Suns. This game won’t likely be anything to write home about, particularly with nothing on the line for either side, but the Giants have found a way to win over the last few weeks, and they can end their season on a high with a third victory in five weeks.

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: A Foley 3 A Borg 21 HB: E O’Dea 2 M Keryk 26 H Dunn 24 C: K Pope 44 M Moloney 9 E Boag 17 HF: J Stewart 13 J Mules 14 J Teakle 15 F: A Saint 8 G Houghton 27 FOLL: M. Scholz 29 A. Dowrick 5 E. Phillips - C 1 I/C: S. Syme 20 O. Levicki 18 Y. Duursma 7 C. Hammond 28 H. Ewings 12 E: Li. Cockatoo-Motlap 30 J. Halfpenny 4 A. Ballard 19

GWS Giants: B: K. Smith 4 P. Randall 21 HB: C. Dalton 11 C.  McCormick 25 T. Evans 18 C: E. Pease 33 R. Beeson 6 A. Eva - C 2 HF: J. Doyle 5 Z. Goldsworthy 7 I. Huntington 12 F: G. Garnett 17 M. Brazendale 23 FOLL: F. Davies 20 N. Barr 8 T. Germech 15 I/C: J. Hicks 29 A. Dallaway 30 R. Caris 26 J. Grierson 10 C. Miller 9 E: I. McLeay 16 G. Hill 19 T. Cattle 40

• The Swans have won three of their last four while the Dockers have lost three of their past four, and all of those Dockers losses have been by 24 points or more.
• The Crows have won every game against teams not in the top four this season by at least 30 points.
• The Magpies have won four of their last five while the Tigers have lost four of their last five, but neither team has had a result in that time where the margin was in excess of 40 points.

Multi of the Week

After three losses in four weeks put their finals hopes in jeopardy, the Cats bounced back strongly last weekend, disposing of the Tigers 49-11 to ensure that they remained in the top eight and put their destiny in their own hands. They’re among a group of teams from seventh to tenth with five wins and four losses, but their percentage of 130.5% puts them way ahead of that pack, both in terms of their position heading into this weekend and their likelihood of doing any damage in the finals. They still need to win this game to play finals – if they lose and two of the Swans, Saints and Magpies win, the Cats will miss the eight – but they will be very confident in their ability to get the job done against the Hawks. They can’t afford to take them too lightly though – though Hawthorn can’t play finals, they are playing their best footy of the year at the moment, having won two of their last three games – one of which was against the Swans – and lost in a close one to the Tigers. That suggests that they will be able to make the Cats work for their spoils, but Geelong is simply a much better side, and with a finals spot on the line they should be able to shake off the plucky Hawks and win this one relatively comfortably.

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: C. Emonson 16 C. Gunjaca 26 HB: R. Webster 21 M. McDonald - C 11 G. Rankin 10 C: M. Bowen 1 G. Prespakis 41 N. Morrison 9 HF: S. Scott 15 J. Parry 5 K. Surman 7 F: C. Scheer 14 A. Moloney 45 FOLL: E. Hoare 46 Am. McDonald 3 D. Moloney 4 I/C: J. Crockett-Grills 6 R. Garing 12 K. Darby 8 Z. Friswell 20 R. Kearns 22 E: M. Bragg 44 G. Featherston 32 Ab. McDonald 39

Hawthorn Hawks: B: T. Smith 24 M. Eardley 17 HB: A. Gilroy 7 J. Richardson 11 L. Elliott 20 C: K. Ashmore 10 J. Fleming 5 E. Everist 25 HF: A. McDonagh 13 A. Kemp 16 M. Breed 4 F:  L. Wales 31 B. Hipwell 19 FOLL: T. Luke 22 T. Lucas-Rodd - C 18 A. Makur Chuot 34 I/C: E. Bates 39 G. Bodey 3 C. Baskaran 9 K. Stratton 41 T. Fellows 8 E: S. Locke 21 T. Cunningham 1 L. Stephenson 12

This is a mismatch if ever there was one. Though the Eagles have managed to snare a couple of wins this season and find themselves a couple of spots off the bottom as a result, they have arguably been the least competitive team all season, and their percentage of 48.8% suggests as much. Admittedly their win against the Bombers a couple of weeks ago was far and away their best performance of the year, but the Crows are a whole different kettle of fish. It was only a couple of weeks ago that Adelaide lost their first, and to this date only, game of the season, and that was by just a couple of points against fellow top four members the Brisbane Lions. The Crows have, most weeks, beaten up on the weaker teams, and in the last month have also beaten both the Demons and the Kangaroos in close games. Their other recent games have seen them beat the Dogs and Suns by 42 and 32 points respectively, conceding just 32 points in total across those two games. Expect a similar, if not worse, outcome for the Eagles this weekend. They will have a lot of trouble scoring against a very sound defensive unit, while the Crows should be able to pile on a score as they look to put the pressure on Melbourne in the race for top spot. After a tough month, the Crows should win big without breaking too much of a sweat in their last hitout before the finals.

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: Z. Wakfer 16 S. McDonald 35 HB: B. Smith 14 E. Gooch 31 C. Thomas 3 C:  S. Davison 28 I. Lewis 6 C. Rowley 5 HF: D. Hooker 17 A. Bushby 15 E. Roberts 4 F: A. Franklin 19 K. Gibson 2 FOLL: L. Wakfer 1 A. McCarthy 11 E. Swanson - C 13 I/C: M. Western 21 E. Elkington 29 M. Webb 26 E. Hartill 25 A. Schmidt 7 E: E. Smith 22 K. Bartlett 20 J. Britton 18

Adelaide Crows: B: B. Smith 18 C. Biddell 12 HB: D. Varnhagen 9 S. Allan - C 39 S. Goodwin 11 C: M. Newman 17 E. Marinoff 10 N. Kelly 23 HF: Y. Bonner 31 C. Gould 1 E. Jones 2 F: D. Ponter 15 H. Munyard 20 FOLL: J. Allan 32 T. Charlton 25 R. Martin 5 I/C: M. McKinnon 21 B. Tonon 28 T. Levy 16 K. Kustermann 7 L. Whiteley 22 E: K. Mueller 13 A. Ward 3 J. Waterhouse 19

Immediately after the Crows, presumably, jump into top spot on the ladder, the Demons will get their chance to snatch that position straight back – though they’ll likely have to work a lot harder for it than their South Australian counterparts. But the Demons have been brilliant all season – something to which their percentage of 260.4% can attest – and deserve to be confident whoever it is they come up against. That team this weekend is the Lions, who have had an up and down couple of weeks. A fortnight ago, they handed the Crows their first loss of the year to put themselves in the mix for the top two and seemingly lock up their spot in the top four. Then, last weekend, they were beaten relatively comfortably by the Saints, putting that top four spot straight back into jeopardy. With the Bombers, Suns, and even Cats snapping at their heels, they’re now in grave danger of losing out on the double chance which they looked so likely to grab for much of the season. With the Suns and Bombers playing one another, a loss to the Lions this weekend will mean that they will definitely fall outside of the top four, so there’s plenty for them to play for. But motivated though they may be, there is only so much that motivation can do for a team, and against the Demons it may not quite be enough. This should be a high intensity game with the Lions playing for a spot in the top four and the Demons for first spot on the ladder – which would mean they would avoid playing the Kangaroos in the first week of the finals. In an entertaining, contested game, however, the Demons can put paid to the Lions top four hopes, and earn themselves the minor premiership in the process.

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: P. Boltz 15 S. Campbell 20 HB: B. Koenen - C 3 N. Grider 10 J. Ellenger 5 C: O. O’Dwyer 9 I. Dawes 17 S. Conway 12 HF: L. Postlethwaite 6 D. Davidson 14 C. Mullins 28 F: T. Smith 31 C. Hodder 21 FOLL: T. Hickie 2 C. Svarc 25 A. Anderson 18 I/C: J. Dunne 8 E. Hampson 7 R. Svarc 29 P. Monahan 11 D. Heslop 23 E: A. McKee 33 B. Smith 16 M. Pauga 27

Melbourne Demons: B: L. Birch 9 T. Gillard 17 HB: S. Goldrick 23 S. Heath 30 M. Chaplin 13 C: B. Mackin 31 T. Hanks 5 E. McNamara 22 HF: A. Bannan 16 L. Mithen 14 E. Zanker 29 F: K. Hore - C 10 T. Harris 7 FOLL: L. Pearce 15 E. West 11 P. Paxman 4 I/C: J. Ivey 19 R. Watt 26 O. Purcell 2 C. Sherriff 18 M. Fitzsimon 24 E: G. Gall 27 C. Wilson 20 G. Campbell 1

The final day of the home and away season is filled with games which will decide the eight, with, incredibly, the six teams from 8th to 13th all playing against one another. It kicks off with an 11th vs 9th clash between the Blues and the Saints, both of whom, clearly, need to win if they are to play finals. The situation is a little more simple for the Saints; win, and they’ll play finals if any of the Suns, Cats or Swans lose, or if the Bombers lose by a lot, though if the Magpies win by much more than they do then they will need to pass two of those teams. The Blues are a game further back, so the equation for them is a lot more difficult. Most likely they will need to win by a lot to make up the percentage gap on the teams above them, and they’ll also need both the Magpies and the Swans to lose their respective games – and, what’s more, a Magpies loss would spell a Richmond win, so Carlton would also need to hang onto a percentage gap which currently sits at 3.4% over the Tigers. There’s a fair bit of maths involved but in summary, the loser is out, and the winner might be in. For the Saints, however, that ‘might’ is much more likely. They clearly enter the game in much better form, too, having won four of their last five and beaten the Lions comfortably last weekend, while the Blues have lost three on the trot to likely dash their finals hopes. These teams will know a little bit more about their chances of playing finals by the time the ball is bounced, but regardless of how the situation unfolds, it’s difficult to go against such contrasting form. The Saints should be able to win this one.

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: G. Lawson-Tavan 27 V. Laloifi 8 HB: C. Fitzgerald 36 M. Hendrie 49 G. Pound 6 C: K. Sherar 25 A. McKay 5 B. Vickers 24 HF: M. Austin 22 E. Fitzpatrick 19 H. Cordner 21 F: B. Moody 16 D. Vescio 3 FOLL: J. Good 12 M. Hill - C 10 L. Goss 20 I/C: K. Skepper 4 A. Velardo 1 M. Anthony 14 I. Milford 28 T. Ortlepp 34 C. Wrigley 15 D. Walker 23 A. Lee 11

St.  Kilda Saints: B: N. Plane 32 B. Pinchin 24 HB: H. Priest - C 14 N. Exon 15 B. Jakobsson 8 13 C: M. McDonald 1 T. Smith 6 A. Richards 22 HF: J. Wardlaw 30 N. Stevens 2 G. Patrikios 21 F: E. Friend 16 N. Xenos 27 FOLL: S. Nalder 34 J. Lambert 9 O. Vesely 23 I/C: A. Burke 3 D. Jolliffe 4 D. Guttridge 5 J. Anderson 7 G. Kelly 11 R. Dillon 25 C. Matthews 28 M. Boyd 29

The situation in Sunday’s second game is remarkably similar to that of the first. The Magpies currently sit in tenth position just a couple of percent behind the Saints, while the Tigers are in 12th a couple of percent behind the Blues. That means that they will be hoping for the exact same results as their counterparts in the game ahead of them over the first two days of the weekend, and whether they have a chance of jumping into the top eight may well be determined by the beginning of Sunday’s action. What’s more, the game before theirs will also be added into the mix, meaning they will have a pretty clear picture of what is required for them to play finals – if it is at all possible. For the Tigers it will take a minor miracle – a big win and plenty of other results going their way – while the Magpies will also be pretty keen to secure a big win to increase their percentage and with it, their finals chances. But it may end up that neither team gets their way. The Tigers have been in poor form of late and the Magpies winning everything up until a disappointing loss last week, but while the Pies look likely to be too strong, the Tigers should make them work for it and keep this one relatively close. 

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: S. Casey 22 S. Livingstone 12 HB: J. Allen 6 L. Brazzale 24 A. Brazill 10 C: S. Rowe 7 M. Cann 25 T. White 29 HF: E. James 2 G. Campbell 13 C. Blair 28 F: N. Morris-Dalton 17 T. Brown 26 FOLL: S. Frederick 1 B. Davey - C 3 A. Sheridan 14 I/C: E. Morris 21 E. Smith 33 B. Bonnici 8 E. Fowler 15 S. Sansonetti 16  C. Taylor 11 J. Lin 35 I. Evans 5

Richmond Tigers: B: L. McClelland 16 R. Miller 15 HB: E. Sheerin 2 M. Shevlin 35 M. Eastman 8 C: B. Lynch 20 G. Egan 1 K. Dempsey 19 HF: K. Cox 17 K. Brennan - C 3 C. Greiser 9 F: A. Peck 36 E. Yassir 27 FOLL: P. Kelly 14 M. Conti 4 S. Hosking 7 I/C: L. Graham 18 L. Pearce 31 C. Wicksteed 24 C. Jones 5 S. Reid 25 S. D’Arcy 12 M. Macdonald 38 J. Woods 29

Rounding out the home and away season is a game which will likely determine who plays finals, so there will be plenty of eyes on this one when the Dockers welcome the Swans to Fremantle Oval. Three losses in the last four weeks means that Fremantle, though mathematically still in the race, won’t play finals, which the Swans will be hoping plays right into their own hands. They currently sit eighth, squashed in between the logjam of teams fighting for the bottom spots in the eight, but a slightly superior percentage to that of the Saints and Pies means that they have the edge. They’ll be hoping that both those two teams have lost – and in close games – earlier in the day, which would mean that the Swans spot in the eight will be safe barring an absolute shellacking by the Dockers. But if either of those teams wins, or the Blues or Tigers wins by a lot, the Swans will be needing to win to play finals. Fortunately for them, they are in some pretty solid form. Sydney has won three of its last four games, including an impressive 19-point win over the Magpies last weekend which followed a demolition of the Doggies. They may have to travel across the country to do it, but they should be able to most likely secure a finals spot in the final game of the season with a comfortable win.

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers: B: P. Seth 18 E. ’Driscoll 3 HB: S. Verrier 5 L. Pugh 32 M. Scanlon 6 C: J. Low 30 K. Bowers 2 O. Lally 14 HF: H. Miller - C 19 A. Tighe 10 M. Kauffman 25 F: A. Mulholland 33 G. O'Sullivan 9 FOLL: M. Strom 21 D. East 8 A. Stannett 4 I/C: J. Cregg 23 T. Mulder 26 A. Hetherington 29 M. Tuhakaraina 13 A. Runnalls 22 R. Roux 17 S. Wielstra 24 M. Hyde 28

Sydney Swans: B: B. Tarrant 20 J. O'Sullivan 24 HB: L. McEvoy - C 9 A. Mitchell 8 E. Heads 12 C: L. Steane 21T. Kennedy 29 R. Sargent-Wilson 6 HF: C. Hamilton 10 R. Privitelli 19 B. Lochland 1 F: C. Molloy 5 S. Hurley 25 FOLL: B. Smith 11 L. Gardiner 31 M. Ham 18 I/C: A. Woodward 13 E. Vale 23 A. Hamilton 30 A. Whelan 22 A. Newman 16 P. Sheppard 4 S. Ford 3 B. Kennedy 2

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