AFL 2023 Round 11 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 11
AFL 2023 Round 11

The AFL is nearing its halfway point, with Round 11 set to take place this weekend. It begins with an intriguing game between two sides badly in need of a win in the Swans and the Blues on Friday night, before the Demons and the Dockers headline Saturday’s action. Sunday looks like a great day of footy to round out the weekend, with the Tigers hosting the Power at the MCG and the Crows hosting the Lions in Adelaide for Sunday arvo’s twilight game. Check out all of the fixtures below, as well as our detailed previews for each games, all of the odds, and a few tips.

Round 11 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Swans vs BluesFriday May 26 at 7.50pm$1.95$1.85
Saints vs HawksSaturday May 27 at 1.45pm$1.24$4.10
Demons vs DockersSaturday May 27 at 2.10pm$1.33$3.30
Cats vs GiantsSaturday May 27 at 4.35pm$1.14$5.75
Suns vs BulldogsSaturday May 27 at 7.25pm$2.50$1.52
Eagles vs BombersSaturday May 27 at 7.30pm$11.00$1.04
Tigers vs PowerSunday May 28 at 1.10pm$2.00$1.80
Magpies vs KangaroosSunday May 28 at 3.20pm$1.04$11.00
Crows vs LionsSunday May 28 at 4.40pm$2.15$1.70

Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues

The AFL has consistently delivered matchups which loom as high quality ones on Friday nights this year, and though neither of these teams are going remotely as they would like to be, this looks to be another intriguing Friday night clash. In fact, the Swans and the Blues might be the two most disappointing teams in the league at the moment, both harbouring top four aspirations at the beginning of the year – Sydney after a Grand Final appearance last year and Carlton with a list that finally looks capable of competing. Over recent weeks, however, both have looked well off the pace. The Swans finally snapped an extended losing streak last weekend, but it was hardly a win that will have coach John Longmire jumping for joy – they just crept over the line against the lowly Kangaroos with a pair of late goals, one of them after an interchange infringement, to win by three points. The Blues, meanwhile, have lost three on the trot and five of their last six, with their solitary win in that time coming against the Eagles. The pressure is squarely on both of these two clubs, who currently sit 11th and 12th with four wins each, and this game shapes up as one which could easily go either way. The winner will put the critics at bay at least for a week, while the pressure for the loser will begin to pile up very high. Neither is particularly easy to pick at the minute, but on their home turf, the Swans can get back on the winners’ list.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Swans +2.5$1.85
Swans 1-39$2.40
Swans to win$1.95

Predicted Squads

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: A.Francis, N.Blakey, R.Fox HB: O.Florent, J.Lloyd, H.Cunningham C: Ch.Warner, L.Parker - C, D.Stephens HF: R.Clarke, H.McLean, W.Hayward F: T.Papley, L.Franklin, I.Heeney FOLL: T. Hickey, E.Gulden, J.Rowbottom I/C: W.Gould, B.Campbell, J.McInerney, L.McAndrew

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: S.Docherty, Le.Young, N.Newman HB: M.McGovern, J.Weitering, A.Saad C: B.Acres, P.Cripps - C, O.Hollands HF: E.Curnow, H.McKay, J.Silvagni F: M. Owies, C.Curnow, J.Motlop FOLL: M.Pittonet, A.Cerra, S.Walsh I/C: A. Cincotta, M.Cottrell, G. Hewett, M.Kennedy

St. Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks

Things haven’t come quite so easy for the Saints in recent weeks after their brilliant start to life 2.0 under Ross Lyon, but they still managed to eke out another win against a plucky Giants outfit last Sunday to take their record to 7-3. They did, however, concede 80 points in that game, making it three of the last four games they’ve conceded at least that many after not doing it once in the first six weeks of the year. They’ll be hopeful they can recapture that smothering defence this weekend against a side not exactly renowned for its scoring capabilities. In fact, the Hawks had scored the least points in the league heading into last weekend, though that all changed when they, extraordinarily, beat the Eagles 142-26. It was a strong performance by the Hawks and Mitch Lewis’ six-goal haul reminded us what he can do, but realistically it was more of an indictment on the Eagles, who were made to look like a VFL side – if that – by a team which was 1-8 heading into the game. The Hawks won’t win too many games this year so I don’t want to take too much away from them, and they did put together a lot of good passages of footy. Against the Saints, however, it will be a hell of a lot harder, and it’s hard to see them backing up last week’s win with another.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Saints to win$1.24
Saints 40+$2.75
Saints -27.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

St KildaSt. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: J.Webster, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, J. Steele - C, R.Byrnes HF: J.Higgins, B.Hill, M. Phillipou F: A.Caminiti, M.King, J.Gresham FOLL: R.Marshall, B.Crouch, H.Clark I/C: S.Ross, T. Membrey, L.Stocker, D.Butler

Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawks: B: B.Hardwick, J.Blanck, J.Sicily - C HB: J.Impey, S.Frost, W.Day C: K.Amon, J.Worpel, S.Mitchell HF: C.Nash, J.Koschitzke, D.Moore F: L.Breust, M.Lewis, S.Butler FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, C.Mackenzie I/C: J.Weddle, N.Reeves, T.Brockman, L.Bramble

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers

The Demons finally had their winning streak come to a close last weekend, going down by four points in a pulsating game to a very impressive Port Adelaide Power outfit. That sent them to 7-3 and fourth place on the ladder, but a percentage of 138.4% is the best in the league and is indicative of the quality of this team. They’ll be eager to bounce back immediately and should be able to do so at home against the Dockers, but they don’t exactly meet Fremantle at the optimal time. After a woeful start to the season, the Dockers – like many teams have been this year – were played into form by one of the three disasters at the bottom of the ladder. They beat the Hawks by 69 points after losing five of their first seven, and with their tails up they then went on to beat Sydney in Sydney, and then the Cats last weekend in their best performance of the year. That kind of form is far more indicative of the side that won 15 games last season than what they’ve displayed prior in 2023, but they will have to be at their absolute best and then some to take down the Dees at the ‘G. This improved and in-form Dockers side can give it a shove, but the Demons should be too good.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons to win$1.33
Demons 1-39$2.00
Dockers +20.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: J.Bowey, S.May, M.Hibberd HB: C.Salem, J.Lever, A.Brayshaw C: T.Rivers, J. Viney, K.Pickett HF: E.Langdon, T.McDonald, T. Sparrow F: C.Spargo, B.Grundy, B.Fritsch FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, L.Hunter I/C: J.van Rooyen, A.Neal-Bullen, K.Chandler, J.McVee

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce - C, H.Young HB: B.Walker, L.Ryan, J.Aish C: J.Clark, S.Switkowski, E.Hughes HF: C.Serong, L.Jackson, B.Banfield F: M.Walters, J.Amiss, L.Schultz FOLL: S.Darcy, A.Brayshaw, N.O’Driscoll I/C: J.Treacy, M.Frederick, N.Fyfe, J.O’Meara

  • The Power have won just one of their last five games against the Tigers in Melbourne.
  • The Eagles have lost eight games in a row by at least 40 points, the last two by a combined total of 186 points against the lowly Hawks and the average Suns.
  • Prior to their win last weekend, the Hawks had lost six games in a row, three of which were by more than nine goals

Multi of the Week

Tigers to win$2.00
Bombers 40+$1.52
Saints 40+$2.55
Bet $10 for $77.52 with PlayUp

Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants

The Cats have had a bit of a weird year. After losing their first three games they won their next five and looked like the best team in the league, but a loss to the Tigers two weeks ago was followed by another to the Dockers last weekend, and suddenly they’re at 5-5. Their best is still absolutely good enough to win a flag, but it’s hard to do that from out of the top four and they’ll need to get winning soon if they’re to make their way in there. This weekend poses a good opportunity for them to start doing just that. The Giants were, once again, very competitive last weekend but unable to get the chocolates, ultimately going down by two goals to Saints in Melbourne. They’ve got plenty of good players running around, with the leftovers from when it all began combining with some good young talent coming through, but the depth isn’t quite there yet. They look like a standout 14th team in the league at the moment – a lot better than the Hawks, Eagles and Kangaroos, but maybe not quite at the level of virtually everyone else. There’s some reason for optimism at the club, but for the time being, beating the Cats in Geelong is likely to be a bridge too far.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats 1-24$3.85
Cats 1-39$2.25
Giants +36.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: M.O’Connor, E.Ratugolea, Z.Guthrie HB: J.Kolodjashnij, J.Henry, T.Stewart C: Z.Tuohy, T.Atkins, I.Smith HF: B.Close, T.Stengle, S.Simpson F: G.Miers, T.Hawkins, J.Cameron FOLL: J.Ceglar, M.Blicavs, M. Duncan I/C: J.Bews, B.Parfitt, T.Bruhn, S. De Koning

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: C.Fleeton, C.Idun, L. Ash HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, F. Callaghan C: H. Perryman, J.Kelly, R.Angwin HF: B.Daniels, T.Greene – C, C. Ward F: A.Cadman, J.Hogan, T.Bedford FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Green, S.Coniglio I/C: D. Lloyd, X.O’Halloran, J.Peatling, J.Riccardi

Gold Coast Suns vs Western Bulldogs

The Suns were no match for the Lions in Brisbane last weekend, going down by 43 points in a relatively disappointing performance by a team which had won three of four prior to that, with the sole loss coming by just five points to the Demons. There’s a bit to like about the Suns but as they have their entire existence, they remain a few steps behind the top tier. Whether the side they’re playing this weekend fits into that category remains to be seen, but the Doggies couldn’t really do much more to convince us that they do at the moment. They’ve won five in a row, their latest a dominant 45-point win over a Crows side which might be the most improved in the league and which most people are touting as a legitimate finals contender. The Bulldogs now find themselves sitting pretty at 7-3. though a percentage of 108.6% with that win/loss record will be pointed to by some as an indication that their record flatters them. Still, they can’t do much more than win five games in a row, and if they make it six they’ll just about jump into the top four come the end of this weekend. The Suns have typically been really competitive over the past few weeks – last weekend notwithstanding – so can keep it close, but the Bulldogs are hard to tip against at the moment.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Bulldogs to win$1.52
Bulldogs 1-39$2.05
Bulldogs -10.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: S.Lemmens, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: D.Macpherson, C.Ballard, W.Powell C: B.Fiorini, D.Swallow, B.Ellis HF: B.Ainsworth, J.Lukosius, M.Rosas F: M. Chol, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts - C, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: R.Atkins, L. Weller, N.Holman, B.Humphrey

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: T.Duryea, L.Jones, E.Richards HB: B.Dale, R.Gardner, C. Daniel C: O.Baker, M.Bontempelli - C, B.Williams HF: A.Scott, J.Ugle-Hagan, C.Weightman F: A.Jones, A.Naughton, R.Lobb FOLL: T.English, B.Smith, T.Liberatore I/C: T.O’Brien, A. Treloar, J.Macrae, J.O’Donnell

West Coast Eagles vs Essendon Bombers

It’s a sad time to be a West Coast supporter. Already a team in a pretty bad position, with a lot of aging stars from their 2018 team complemented by not enough good youth and a serious dearth of players in their prime, they’ve been absolutely decimated by injuries and are now one of the most uncompetitive AFL teams in decades. They had already established themselves firmly in a bottom three which is miles below the rest, sharing that position with the Hawks and Kangaroos, but they leapt into a league of their own last weekend when they lost 142-26 to the Hawks. That was embarrassing despite their injuries, and if that’s what the Hawks can do to them one shudders to think what the Bombers will inflict upon them this weekend. And the Bombers aren’t even that good! They are, however, drastically improved from last year, and were able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat last weekend in an incredible Dreamtime at the G clash against the Tigers. At 5-5 they look like a genuine finals team, and shouldn’t have any problems giving their percentage a nice old boost this weekend.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Bombers to win$1.04
Bombers 60+$2.30
Bombers -52.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: H.Edwards, T.Barrass, L.Duggan - C HB: A.Witherden, J.Rotham, J.Hunt C: L.Foley, D.Sheed, R.Ginbey HF: C.West, J.Waterman, X.O’Neill F: J.Petruccelle, O.Allen, C.Jamieson FOLL: B.Williams, T.Kelly, A.Gaff I/C: C.Chesser, B.Hough, Z.Trew, N. Long

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: A.McGrath, B.Zerk-Thatcher, D.Heppell HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, K.Langford C: S.Durham, Z.Merrett - C, D.Shiel HF: N.Martin, J.Stringer, J.Caldwell F: A.Davey Jnr, S.Weideman, A.McDonald-Tipungwuti FOLL: S.Draper, D. Shiel, A.Perkins I/C: N.Hind, J. Laverde, B. Hobbs, J.Menzie

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Richmond Tigers vs Port Adelaide Power

The Tigers can seriously find ways to lose. They didn’t play at their best against the Bombers last Saturday night, but they realistically looked in control for much of the game and with a three-goal lead in the final quarter were set to make it three wins in a row to get their season back on track. Instead, they fell at the last hurdle, ultimately conceding a goal with seven seconds to go to lose by a single point and continue their incredible record of losses in close games over the past few years. That loss will seriously hurt, but Damian Hardwick and co will be desperate to make amends this weekend. To do so, they’ll have to play some pretty good footy judging by how the Power is going at the moment. Port took their record to 8-2 last weekend with a terrific, hard-fought win over the Demons in Adelaide, with Zak Butters absolutely dominant in the midfield. Alongside Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis, he appears set to form arguably the best trio of mids in the league over the coming years, and they’ll be looking to do their thing again this weekend against the likes of Tim Taranto, Dion Prestia and Shai Bolton – a pretty handy triumvirate themselves. This should be a brilliant game, but one thing in the Tigers is where it will be played. The Power have travelled to the MCG just once this year and lost by 70 points to the Magpies, and if they’re a little off the Tigers can take advantage. Richmond might have lost last weekend but they really should have won and made it three in a row; they’re starting to play some good footy, and can win a hard-fought game to keep their season alive this Sunday.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Tigers to win$2.00
Tigers 1-39$2.40
Tigers +2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: N.Vlastuin, D.Grimes, N.Balta HB: D.Rioli, N.Broad, L.Baker C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross HF: R.Mansell, D.Prestia, J.Graham F: S.Ryan, D.Martin, J.Riewoldt FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, J.Short, S.Bolton I/C: H.Ralphsmith, M.Pickett, T.Dow, T.Cotchin

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: A.Aliir, T.McKenzie, T.Jonas - C HB: R.Bonner, R.Burton, D.Houston C: T.Boak, J.Horne-Francis, M.Bergman HF: J.McEntee, C.Rozee, S.Powell-Pepper F: D.Byrne-Jones, J.Finlayson, C. Dixon FOLL: S.Lycett, O.Wines, Z.Butters I/C: D.Williams, W.Drew, K.Farrell, O. Lord

Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

The Magpies just keep on rolling. Last weekend, they won their sixth game in a row, this one a comfortable 28-point win over one of their oldest rivals in the Blues. They weren’t at their absolute best in that win, with Carlton’s wayward kicking and Collingwood’s comparative accuracy making the scorecard a little more lopsided than what it could have been, but as they say, bad kicking is bad football and the Magpies certainly didn’t commit that offence. They find themselves sitting on top of the ladder, albeit only ahead of the Lions and Power on percentage, though they should have no problems increasing that percentage gap against the Roos this weekend. North, in fairness, were really competitive last weekend and very nearly won their second game of the season against the Swans, but a disastrous mix-up which saw them make one too many interchanges gave Sydney a goal on the line in the dying stages to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. That was a much improved performance from the Kangaroos, but the Swans, despite being last year’s Grand Finalists, are not travelling well, and are a long way below the Pies at this point in time. Collingwood should have no problem winning this one, and winning it well.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.04
Magpies 40+$1.37
Magpies -55.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: I.Quaynor, D.Moore - C, B.Maynard HB: W.Hoskin-Elliott, N.Murphy, J.Noble C: S.Sidebottom, J.De Goey, J.Daicos HF: B.Hill, B.Mihocek, N.Daicos F: T.Adams, M.Cox, J.Elliott FOLL: A.Johnson, S.Pendlebury, T.Mitchell I/C: J.Crisp, B.McCreery, J.Ginnivan, O.Markov

North Melbourne KangaroosNorth Melbourne Kangaroos: B: J.Ziebell, G.Logue, B.McKay HB: L.McDonald, A.Hall, M.Bergman C: W.Phillips, L.Shiels, H.Sheezel HF: P.Spicer, T.Powell, J.Stephenson F: P.Curtis, N.Larkey, C.Coleman-Jones FOLL: T.Goldstein, G.Wardlaw, J.Simpkin - C I/C: A. Corr, B.Drury, H.Greenwood, B.Scott

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions

The Crows suffered something of a setback last weekend, going down without much of a welp against the Bulldogs in Ballarat. For the much improved side, that was actually a third loss in four weeks, though that’s not really reflective of how they’ve been playing – one of those losses was by a point to the Magpies, another a reasonably competitive effort against the Cats in Geelong, and another an absolute mauling of the Saints. They’re still travelling reasonably well, particularly at AAMI Park, where they’ll welcome a team travelling even better. The Lions are where the Crows are trying to get to – a bonafide Premiership contender which has now won seven games in a row. What’s more, all of those wins have been comfortable – each of them by 21 points or more. They are humming along beautifully, but the Crows in Adelaide is certainly not as simple a task as it has been in recent years. This should be a cracking game to conclude the round, but the Lions just keep on winning, and it’s very hard to fault what they are doing at the moment. They can make it eight wins in a row with a tight victory on the road.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions to win$1.70
Lions 1-39$2.25
Lions -5.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: M.Michalanney, N.Murray, J.Butts HB: T. Doedee, B.Smith, W.Milera C: J.Soligo, J.Dawson - C, C.Jones HF: L.Sholl, L.Murphy, L.Pedlar F: T. Walker, D.Fogarty, I.Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays I/C: J.Rachele, R.Sloane, P.Parnell, R. Thilthorpe

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, D. Joyce, K.Coleman HB: C.McKenna, H.Andrews - C, D.Zorko C: J.Berry, Z.Bailey, H.McCluggage HF: C.Cameron, J.Gunston, W.Ashcroft F: L.McCarthy, J.Daniher, E.Hipwood FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale I/C: C.Rayner, H.Sharp, R.Lester, D.Wilmot

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