AFL 2024 Round 11 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

There was plenty going on in Round 10, from a ridiculously high scoring Thursday night clash between the Suns and the Cats, to a statement from the Swans the next day and a couple of thrilling finishes over the next couple of days. Round 11’s action kicks off on Thursday night when the in-form Bulldogs take on the best team in the league in the Swans, while the Dockers host the Magpies in an enthralling clash the next day, and later in the round the Cats take on the Giants, and the struggling Tigers face the Bombers in the annual Dreamtime at the G clash. Below, you can check out our previews for all nine games set to take place across the round. 

The Bulldogs have deservedly copped plenty of heat this year for their continued inability to deliver any level of consistency, but credit where credit is due – they have been very good over the past fortnight. After an absolute shellacking of the hapless Tigers two weeks ago, they took on a far more difficult opposition in the Giants last weekend, and passed that test with flying colours. For the second time in as many weeks they conceded a score in the low 40s, and while they didn’t hit the scoreboard like they did against the Tigers they still ran out comfortable 70-43 victors over a team which just a few weeks ago was the Premiership favourite. That title, however, now belongs to the side the Bulldogs will host at Marvel Stadium this Thursday night. The Swans have well and truly established themselves as the best team in the league so far this season, their solitary loss coming, bizarrely, against the Tigers, and last week they could hardly have been more emphatic in their defeat of the Blues. After a really poor start, they wrestled back momentum after conceding an early lead and were absolutely dominant for the rest of the game, making a very capable Blues midfield looking second rate and ultimately running out victors by 52 points. That was probably their most impressive performance in a year which has been full of them, and as good as the Bulldogs have been over the past two weeks that makes it hard to tip against the visitors. Perhaps most impressive about the Dogs’ last fortnight has been their defensive output, and it will be fascinating to see if their talented but at times overly possession-focused midfield can contain the likes of Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner. If the Dogs bring their best this will be a great game, but the Swans are impossible to tip against at the moment.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.57
	Swans -9.5	$1.91
	Swans/Swans half-time/full-time double	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs:  L. Bramble, L. Jones, J. O’Donnell HB: T. Duryea, A. Keath, B. Dale C: B. Williams, A. Treloar, J. Harmes HF: L. Vandermeer, A. Naughton, R. Garcia F: S. Darcy, J. Ugle-Hagan, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, E. Richards I/C: C. Daniel, L. Cleary, J. Freijah, H. Gallagher, J. Macrae EMG: R. Lobb, A. Scott, A. Jones 

Sydney Swans: A. Francis, L. Melican, D. Rampe - C HB: O. Florent, N. Blakey, H. Cunningham C: E. Gulden, Ch. Warner, J. McInerney HF: H. McLean, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: W. Hayward, J. Amartey, T. Papley FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, J. Lloyd, J. Jordon, S. Wicks, T. McCartin EMG: L. Parker, M. Roberts, J. Hamling 

The Dockers don’t get a whole lot of Friday night action, but they deserve this fixture against the reigning Premiers on their home turf. Though Fremantle doesn’t always enjoy all that much media coverage over east, they have had a really solid year to date and were it not for a couple of defeats that they snatched from the jaws of victory, they could be sitting right up the pointy end of the ladder ten weeks into the season. As it is they sit at 6-4, coming off a mature road victory against the Saints last weekend. That was a typically dour victory for Justin Longmuir’s chargers, who held their opponent to just 55 points while kicking just 72 of their own – though having booted 9. 18 it’s safe to say that the margin could have been a lot bigger. This Friday night, they’ll have to at their defensive best to contain a far more dangerous team than they faced last week. The Magpies are well and truly back in the Premiership picture following their slow start to the season – not that most people thought they really ever left it, the media extremists aside. The Pies were not at their best last Saturday but for the third time in a row got the chocolates over the Crows by less than a kick, a result which made it seven consecutive games without a loss – six wins and a draw. This will be one of the toughest fixtures of that stretch, and one that they will somewhat surprisingly enter as slight underdogs. The Dockers are a great chance to secure what would be a really impressive win for them, but at shorter than even money they don’t look like great value against the might of the Magpies. At $2, the visitors can sneak over the line in an enthralling game at Optus Stadium on Friday night.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$2.00
	Magpies +2.5	$1.91
	Magpies 1-39	$2.45

Predicted Squads

Walyalup (Fremantle) Dockers: B: B. Walker, A. Pearce - C, J. Draper HB: J. Aish, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, A. Brayshaw, M. Johnson HF:  B. Banfield, S. Switkowski, J. O’Meara F:  J. Treacy, J. Amiss, P. Voss FOLL: L. Jackson, C. Serong, N. Fyfe I/C: T. Emmett, H. Young, S. Darcy, H. Chapman, M. Walters EMG: N. Erasmus, C. Wagner, L. Reidy 

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, B. Frampton  HB: I. Quaynor, O. Markov, J. Noble C: S. Sidebottom, S. Pendlebury, J. Daicos HF: P. Lipinski, N. Daicos, R. McInnes F: B. Mihocek, B. Hill, L. Schultz FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, J. De Goey I/C: B. McReery, J. Richards, L. Sullivan, H. Harrison, M. Cox EMG: N. Kreuger, E. Allan, C. Dean

The Kangaroos haven’t looked like winning a single game that they have played in so far this year, and that does not look likely to change this Saturday afternoon when they welcome the Power to Marvel Stadium. The Roos now find themselves at 0-10 with a measly percentage of just 56. 8%, and though they are coming off a slightly more competitive effort last weekend, the fact that a 40-point loss is classed as competitive is pretty indicative of where they were at. The Power, meanwhile, are coming off one of the more extraordinary wins in recent memory, after they kicked two goals in the last 25 seconds of their game against Hawthorn to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. They really didn’t deserve that win and would have been disappointed with the way that they performed throughout the course of the game, particularly after such an impressive win down in Geelong the week prior, but a win is a win and that one took their record to 7-3 and saw them jump inside the top four. They won’t likely be losing their grip on that position this weekend. The Power will be keen to play a lot better than they did against the Hawks, but even if they don’t they should be able to notch up a win here, and if they’re at their best they will be enjoying a nice percentage boost as well.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power 40+	$1.70
	Power -43.5	$1.91
	Over 173.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, L. McDonald - C HB: Z. Fisher, H. Sheezel, R. Hardeman C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF:  J. Stephenson, T. Powell, L. Shiels F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpkin I/C: T. Pink, C. Lazzaro, E. Ford, W. Dawson, C. Taylor EMG: H. Greenwood, D. Stephens, B. Drury 

Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide) Power: B: K. Farrell, E. Ratugolea, R. Burton  HB: M. Bergman, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, M. Georgiades F: C. Rozee - C, C. Dixon, W. Rioli FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: J. Mead, J. McEntee, B. Zerk-Thatcher, O. Wines, J. Burgoyne EMG: D. Visentini, F. Evans, T. Clurey 

• The Kangaroos have lost six of their past eight games by at least nine goals.
• Three of the last four Saints games have seen 154 points or less scored, while the same can be said for five of the last six Demons games. The line for this game is set at 153. 5.  
• The Magpies have won their last three games against the Dockers by an average of 34 points.

Multi of the Week

This is sneakily a pretty interesting game. The Blues will enter it as deserved favourites and in Melbourne will be expecting to come away with the four points, but the Suns have had a strong couple of weeks and were particularly good last weekend. A fortnight ago they did what they needed to do against the Roos and recorded a 68-point win, but last Thursday night was when they really showed what they were capable of. Coming up against the then 7-2 Cats, Gold Coast put together an offensive masterpiece, slicing up the Cats’ en route to a commanding 164-100 win, a victory which could probably find its way onto the podium in terms of the best wins in the Suns short and relatively inauspicious life in the AFL. The Blues, meanwhile, will be relieved to finally be done with a torturous five-week period during which they played each of the other five members of the top six Premiership favourites. They did reasonably well for the most part during that stretch, splitting the first four games at two apiece and with those two losses coming by just 13 points to the Cats and six points to the Magpies. Last weekend, however, they had their first really poor loss, being absolutely pummelled by the Swans after starting the game in dominant fashion. They ended up losing that game 117-65 and now surprisingly find themselves outside the top eight, though at 6-4 and having endured a really tough draw they won’t be too concerned. But clearly, they can’t afford to take the Suns lightly this weekend. Down in Melbourne the Blues should be too strong, but if the visitors play like they did last weekend they can give this one a shake.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.40
	Under 176.5 total match points	$1.91
	Blues 1-39	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, A. Saad HB: C. Marchbank, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: Z. Williams, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: O. Hollands, T. De Koning, E. Hollands F: H. McKay, C. Curnow, M. Owies FOLL: M. Pittonet, S. Walsh, M. Kennedy I/C: J. Boyd, J. Carroll, S. Durdin, J. Motlop, G. Hewett EMG: L. Cowan, J. Binns, C. Durdin 

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, C. Ballard, J. Jeffrey HB: S. Flanders, M. Rowell, M. Andrew C: B. Fiorini, T. Miller - C, S. Clohesy HF: B. Humphrey, T. Berry, L. Johnston F: B. Long, B. King, J. Lukosius FOLL: J. Witts, N. Anderson, D. Swallow I/C: A. Davies, B. Ainsworth, A. Sexton, B. Uwland, S. Day EMG: N. Holman, N. Moyle, J. Walter 

The action heads to the Cattery for Saturday’s twilight game, which looms as perhaps the game of the round. Both the Cats and the Giants are right in the mix for Premiership favouritism, but each is also desperately in need of a victory after falling right off over the past few weeks. The Cats three weeks ago were the only remaining undefeated team at 7-0, but they have subsequently lost three games on the trot, and though the first two were competitive defeats, their 64-point loss to the Suns last Thursday was far from ideal. Things haven’t been a whole lot better for the Giants. Like the Cats they were undefeated after five games before a 19-point loss to the Blues brought an end to that winning streak, but they were quickly back to their best with a commanding victory over the Lions the week after. Since then, however, they have really struggled, losing three games on the trot to fall to 6-4. And it’s not just the results that are concerning, it’s the manner of them. They were good but not good enough against the Swans three weeks ago, but a 20-point loss to the Bombers the following week was particularly disappointing before last week, they managed just 43 points in a meek performance against the Dogs. The lethal ball movement and scoring ability which so defined their winning form early in the season has been notably absent throughout this losing stretch, with scores of just 69, 62 and 43 during that time. They will need to be a lot better than that with ball in hand this Saturday, even if the Cats haven’t been at their best over the past three weeks. But concerning though those past few performances have been, the Giants at their best are an extremely good team, and at longer odds they can sneak over the line in a thrilling upset win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants to win	$2.50
	Giants +12.5	$1.91
	Giants 1-39	$2.90

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, Z. Tuohy, J. Kolodjashnij HB: Z. Guthrie, T. Stewart - C, M. Holmes C: O. Dempsey, B. Parfitt, M. Blicavs HF: B. Close, G. Rohan, G. Miers F: T. Stengle, T. Hawkins, J. Cameron FOLL: T. Conway, C. Guthrie, J. Bowes I/C: O. Henry, T. Bruhn, T. Atkins, M. Duncan J. Clark EMG: M. Knevitt, O. Mullin, M O’Connor

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, L. Aleer, H. Perryman C: N. Haynes, T. Green, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, J. Riccardi, T. Bedford F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, C. Stone FOLL: K. Briggs, C. Ward, S. Coniglio I/C: J, Peatling, X. O’Halloran, J. Wehr, A. Cadman, H. Thomas EMG: L. Keeffe, N. Madden, R. Angwin 

The Dreamtime at the G clash between the Tigers and the Bombers has been an annual fixture ever since 2007, and through their dynasty and even a little before, Richmond unsurprisingly had the upper hand. They won eight of these games in a row between 2015 and 2022, but last year the Bombers finally got one back courtesy of a thrilling one-point win which turned out to be triple Premiership coach Damian Hardwick’s last game in charge. The way that both of these teams are going of late, that result looks likely to be repeated this Saturday night. The Tigers probably wouldn’t have been a particularly good team regardless this year, but they have been decimated by injuries to the point where they barely have a full squad of 23 players to choose from, and it’s showed in the past fortnight. After a 91-point loss to the Bulldogs two weeks ago they went down by 119 points to the Lions. The Bombers, meanwhile, are humming along beautifully, and six weeks without a defeat means that they are now sitting in second place on the AFL ladder. Realistically they won’t likely stay there for long and a percentage of just 103. 3% - less than that of the Lions in 12th – is indicative of that, but nonetheless they certainly appear to have improved and look well poised to make a play for their first finals win in two decades. They do have a tendency to play to the level of their opposition and haven’t typically been the kind of team to dole out major beltings, so the Tigers should be safe from another result of the kind that they have seen over the past fortnight. The Bombers, however, should still be winning this one reasonably well.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bombers 1-39	$2.40
	Tigers +38.5	$1.91
	Under 166.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, T. Young HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, M. Pickett, K. McIntosh HF: L. Baker, S. Bolton, T. Sonsie F: J. Koschitzke, D. Martin, N. Balta FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, D. Prestia, T. Dow  I/C: J. Short, D. Grimes, K. McAuliffe, M. Coulthard, N. Cumberland EMG: K. Smith, S. Green, S. Ryan 

Essendon Bombers: B: D. Heppell, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: M. Guelfi, A. Perkins, J. Kelly HF: S. Durham, K. Langford, J. Stringer F: J. Gresham, P. Wright, A. Davey Jnr FOLL: T. Goldstein, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C  I/C: B. Hobbs, N. Hind, J. Ridley, N. Cox, D. Shiel EMG: N. Bryan, N. Caddy, Z. Reid 

The Hawks have seven days to think about one of the more remarkable losses they have endured in many years, with everything that could have gone wrong going wrong in the last quarter, and moreover the last 30 seconds, of last Sunday’s game against the Power. Making that loss perhaps even more disappointing was the fact that, after five losses in a row to start the season, they had won three of their past four prior to that game, and another win would have taken them to 4-6 and not all that far out of the top eight. But alas, lose they did, and their next opportunity to make amends will not be a particularly easy one against last year’s Grand Finalists. The Lions have put themselves well and truly behind the eight ball with an indifferent start to the year, and a raft of long-term injuries to best 22 players certainly hasn’t helped. They do, however, appear to be gradually finding their feet. They’ve now won or drawn their last three games, and though it’s hard to gauge much from Richmond games at the minute, it’s safe to say that they did what they needed to do last Saturday night with a 119-point victory. Things won’t be quite so easy for them this week, and given that the Hawks gave them a bit of a bath in the corresponding fixture last year, the Lions will certainly want to be on their toes. The Hawks are not without a chance in this game if they play at their best, but the Lions should be winning it.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.37
	Lions -16.5	$1.91
	Lions 25+	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Impey - C, S. Frost, J. Weddle HB: K. Amon, J. Sicily, J. Serong C: S. Mitchell, C. Nash, B. Hardwick HF: W. Day, C. Macdonald, N. Watson F: J. Ginnivan, L. Breust, M. Chol FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, D. Moore I/C: C. Mackenzie, C. Dear, M. D’Ambrosio, J. Worpel, C. Jiath EMG: B. Macdonald, E. Phillips, F. Maginness 

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, C. McKenna C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry  HF: C. Cameron, D. Fort, H. McCluggage F: L. Morris, J. Daniher, C. Ah Chee FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C  I/C: K. Lohmann, H. Sharp, S. Brain, Z. Bailey, N. Answerth EMG: J. Prior, B. Reville, D. Joyce

The Demons were the latest team on the receiving end of an impressive performance from the massively improved Eagles team last Sunday, going down by 35 points the week after the Blues beat them by a point. With those losses, they joined the host of teams with six wins, a number that they share with five other teams in the middle part of the AFL ladder. But this weekend, they really should be getting back on the winners’ list against a Saints team for whom a whole lot of pressure is not too far away. After playing finals last year in Ross Lyon’s first season back in the coach’s seat, they find themselves at 3-7 ten games into this season and have lost five of their last six games, the only victory in that time coming against the Kangaroos. As is generally the case with Ross Lyon coached sides, they have had no problem restricting opposition even despite those losses, but their own ability to hit the scoreboard has been notably lacking. They haven’t scored more than 72 points in the past five weeks with the exception of the Kangaroos game, and have managed just eight goals in each of their past two games. That doesn’t bode particularly well for them coming up against a Melbourne team which has conceded less points than all but two teams this year. Expect this to be a little bit of an arm wrestle, but the Demons should be able to restrict the Saints to a similar scoreline to what they have managed the last couple of weeks and run out winners by a few goals, and if the defeat gets too heavy then there will be plenty of heat on the Saints over the week to come.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$1.35
	Demons -17.5	$1.91
	Under 153.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Narrm (Melbourne) Demons: B: B. Howes, S. May, T. Rivers HB: J. McVee, T. McDonald, A. Tomlinson  C: J. Billings, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF: A. Neal-Bullen, B. Fritsch, K. Pickett F: K. Chandler, J. van Rooyen, S. McAdam FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, C. Petracca  I/C: C. Salem, J. Bowey, T. Sparrow, T. Woewodin, B. Brown EMG: A. Moniz-Wakefield, T. Fullarton, K. Tholstrup 

Euro-Yroke (St. Kilda) Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB:  R. Bonner, J. Sinclair, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: B. Courch, P. Dow, M. Wood HF: D. Wilson, B. Hill, L. Henry F: M. Owens, M. King, A. Caminiti FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, M. Windhager I/C: Z. Jones, J. Hayes, H. Garcia, J. Webster, B. Paton EMG: A. Hastie, M. Phillipou, T. Campbell 

This is a sneaky interesting game to round out the weekend’s action. The Crows have well and truly worked their way into the season after a terrible start, and despite being a fair way back from the pack, are well and truly capable of bridging that gap, particularly with a friendly draw to come. They must be pretty damn sick of the Magpies though, who last weekend beat them by four points after knocking them off by one point and two points last year. Still, it was a solid showing from the Crows, and rounds out a good three-week patch against three tough opponents in the Power, Lions and Magpies. Unfortunately for them, however, it yielded just a solitary win, that coming when they smashed the Power before they drew with the Lions two weeks ago. Things get a little easier for them now, however, with games against the Hawks and Tigers in the next three weeks, though this Sunday’s clash with the Eagles looks a lot tougher than it might have a couple of months ago. The Eagles have now won three of their last six games, the latest of which was perhaps their most impressive yet against the Demons, a game which produced yet another incredible highlight from probably the most impressive first-year player in recent memory. Harley Reid’s goal out of the centre square was as good as it gets, and while he is certainly not the solitary reason for their improvement – names like Jake Waterman and Elliot Yeo have played a pretty big hand, among others, as well – he has had a major impact on this footy club already in his short time there. The Eagles are no longer a team that anyone can take lightly, but one thing this young team has failed to do so far this year is perform equally as well on the road as they have at home. At some point that will change, but as for this week, the Crows should be knocking them off.    

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.19
	Crows 1-39	$2.05
	Crows 1-24	$3.50

Predicted Squads

Kuwarna (Adelaide) Crows: B: B. Smith, J. Butts, C. Jones HB: L. Nankervis, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: M. Hinge, J. Soligo, J. Dawson – C  HF: L. Sholl, T. Walker, J. Rachele  F: E. Himmelberg, D. Fogarty, L. Pedlar FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, B. Keays I/C: M. Crouch, N. McHenry, L. Murphy, B. Cook, W. Hamill EMG: C. Burgess, S. Berry, J. Borlase

Wallitj Marawar (West Coast) Eagles: B: A. Witherden, T. Barrass, B. Hough  HB: T. Cole, J. McGovern, L. Duggan - C  C: C. Chesser, H. Reid, J. Hunt HF: R. Marci, J. Waterman, J. Cripps F: L. Ryan, J. Darling, J. Williams FOLL: B. Williams, T. Kelly, E. Yeo I/C: D. Sheed, J. Jones, J. Rotham, R. Ginbey, T. Dewar EMG: A. Gaff, H. Edwards, J. Culley

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