NRL 2024 Round 11 – Betting tips & Predictions

The NRL season is already nearing its halfway mark, and with either nine or ten games under each team’s belt we are starting to establish a pretty good idea of where they all sit. There are plenty of surprises at both end of the ladder, with the Dolphins’ win over the Sea Eagles last Thursday night another step towards them establishing themselves a genuine finals contender, while the Rabbitohs heavy loss to the Dragons has cemented them to bottom spot, a position they may not leave for the remainder of the year after entering the season as one of the Premiership favourites. This week will see every game taking place at Suncorp Stadium for Magic Round, which kicks off on Friday evening when the Raiders take on the Bulldogs. Later that night the Sea Eagles take on the Broncos, while the game of the round comes the next day when the Roosters face the top of the table Sharks. Below, we take a detailed look at each game set to take place across the course of the weekend. 

The Raiders enjoyed a week off after a much-needed win against the Sea Eagles a fortnight ago, a result which followed two consecutive thumping defeats. They’ve been a little erratic this season but have overall outperformed expectations, but despite sitting just inside the top eight they will enter this home game against the ninth-placed Bulldogs as the underdog. But it’s easy to see why. The Bulldogs have been really competitive this year after a poor first couple of weeks, having won four of their past seven games and gone close in those losses. Last week they were solid against the Panthers in Penrith, and though they took nearly 70 minutes to hit the scoreboard, a couple of late tries saw them lose by just six points to the three-time reigning Premiers. After numerous years of continual list turnover, the Bulldogs finally appear primed to begin their climb up the ladder, and based on the way that they have been playing for the last couple of months they are very much in the mix to play finals this year. The Raiders’ up and down form makes this a difficult game to pick, but they haven’t been able to put their best foot forward as consistently as the Bulldogs so far this year. The visitors can continue their solid recent form with a tight win on Friday night, and jump into the eight for the first time this season as a result. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.67
	Bulldogs -3.5	$1.90
	Bulldogs 7+	$2.25

Predicted Squads

Canberra Raiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. Xavier Savage 3. Matt Timoko 4. Seb Kris 5. Albert Hopoate 6. Ethan Strange 7. Kaeo Weekes  8. Josh Papalii 9. Danny Levi 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Tom Starling 15. Ata Mariota 16. Trey Mooney 17. Pasami Saulo 

Canterbury Bulldogs : 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Drew Hutchison 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Josh Curran 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jaeman Salmon 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Sam Hughes 16. Kurtis Morrin 17. Jacob Preston 

Later on Friday, the Sea Eagles take on the Broncos in a game that they badly need to win. They’ve had a good year for the most part to date, but in the past couple of weeks they’ve suffered a couple of close defeats to teams that they probably should have beaten. A fortnight ago they lost by two points to the Raiders, and they were unable to bounce back last week against a really solid Dolphins outfit. They led that game by ten points in the first half, but a terrible five-minute period in which they conceded three tries lay the foundations for another tight loss, putting their spot in the top eight in jeopardy. Making matters so much worse, Tom Trbojevic suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for close to two months, and things don’t get any easier this week as they come up against a Broncos team that has won four of its last five games by an average of 19.5 points. Last week they bounced back from their solitary loss in that period with a comfortable victory over the Eels, coming away from Parramatta with a 30-14 win to continue their ascent up the ladder after a slow start. They’re now looking every bit the team that went so close to winning last year’s Premiership, and particularly with Trbojevic’s absence, the Broncos should be too strong. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Broncos to win	$1.29
	Broncos -11.5	$1.90
	Broncos 13+	$2.01

Predicted Squads

Manly Sea Eagles : 1.  Tolu Koula 2. Jaxson Paulo 3. Ben Trbojevic 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Tommy Talau 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Corey Waddell 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Karl Lawton 15. Tof Sipley 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge 

Brisbane Broncos : 1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Jock Madden 8. Corey Jensen 9. Tyson Smoothy 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Blake Mozer 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Jack Gosiewski 

The Titans have done a fantastic job of turning their season around, and on Saturday have a good chance of winning their third game out of their last four when they take on the Knights. After losing their first four games by 13 points or more, the Titans have either won or lost by less than five points in each of their last five, and in the past three weeks they have knocked off the Warriors, gone down by just two points to the Storm, and last week beat the Cowboys by two points in yet another tight game. They are a far cry from the team that they were in the first month of the season, and should pose a serious challenge for a Knights team trying to work its way into the top eight. The Knights didn’t have the greatest start to the season themselves, but they have now won three consecutive games – each by six points or less – after knocking off the Tigers last weekend. Admittedly that wasn’t the most convincing of wins, but they did what they needed to do to even their win/loss ledger at five and five. They should be expecting to make it four from four this weekend, but the Titans have been competitive against some much better sides than the Knights recently and can’t be ruled out of this. Given that their last five games have been decided by five points or less it feels likely that this one will go down to the wire, but unfortunately for the Titans they will be without a couple of key players after Harley Smith-Shields, Kieran Foran, AJ Brimson and Phillip Sami all failed to finish their last game, and the absence of a couple of those will make it tough for them to notch up another win in this one. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Titans to win	$2.10
	Titans +2.5	$1.90
	Titans 1-12	$3.30

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Titans : 1. Keano Kini 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Chris Randall 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Isaac Liu 14. Erin Clark 15. Klese Haas 16. Joe Stimson 17. Josiah Pahulu 

Newcastle Knights : 1. David Armstrong 2. Greg Marzhew 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Enari Tuala 6. Jack Cogger 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jack Hetherington 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Dylan Lucas 16. Brodie Jones 17. Mat Croker 

• Five of the last six games for both the Sharks and the Roosters have gone over the 40.5 point match line set for their game, with all five of those games for the Roosters seeing 50 points or more scored. 
• The Eels have conceded at least 30 points in their last three games 
• The Rabbitohs have lost their last five games by an average of 24 points, each of those defeats coming by at least 12 points.  

Multi of the Week

The game of the weekend kicks off at 5.30pm AEST on Saturday, when the ladder leading Sharks take on a fellow contender in the Roosters. Neither of these teams has done a lot of losing lately, the Sharks having won six on the trot while the Roosters have won their last three, and each enjoyed very impressive victories last weekend. Cronulla made one of the toughest trips in the game, heading to AAMI Park to take on a Storm side which hadn’t yet lost a game on their home turf this year; now they have. That was a tight and high quality game throughout, and it took a Daniel Atkinson field goal in the 73rd minute to break an 18-18 tie. As it turned out, they didn’t need that extra point because they went ahead and scored a converted try a minute later to secure a 25-18 win. The Roosters, meanwhile, hosted the Warriors after winning their previous two games by a combined total of 64 points, and continued their dominant form with a 38-18 win. They have now scored 138 points in just three games and won each of those by at least 20 points, and have established themselves as one of the biggest threats – if not the biggest – to the Panthers and Broncos as Premiership favourites. As was the Sharks vs Storm game last year, this will be played at a finals-like intensity and could easily be a preview of a final later in the year, and it’s very hard to see either team winning it by a big margin. Certainly the Roosters streak of hefty wins won’t likely continue, but they are a great chance of breaking the Sharks’ extended winning streak. This should go right down to the wire; were it an actual Sharks home game I’d be backing them, but as good as they’ve been, on neutral territory the Roosters might be slightly too strong. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Roosters to win	$1.55
	Roosters 1-12	$2.95
	Over 40.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Cronulla Sharks : 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Daniel Atkinson 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Thomas Hazelton 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cam McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Sifa Talakai 16. Royce Hunt 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 

Sydney Roosters : 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith  10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Naufahu Whyte 17. Terrell May 

If the Rabbitohs hadn’t already established themselves as the worst team in the NRL, they well and truly have now after another woeful defeat, particularly with the Titans winning their second game in three weeks. After having not got near a team for a month, they theoretically had a good chance to do that when they came up against the Dragons, but were instead beaten relatively comfortably. Given that the Cowboys have lost five games in a row this should be a good chance for the Bunnies to put in a competitive showing, but we said the same thing last week, and as far as five-game losing streaks go the Cowboys’ hasn’t been the worst. Four of those defeats including the last three have been by seven points or less, with their two-point defeat to the Titans last weekend their second consecutive by that margin. Still, it’s been a disappointing fall from grace after they won four of their first five games, and if they want to establish themselves as any sort of legitimate threat to play finals this year they really need to be beating the Rabbitohs. This is a perfect opportunity for them to reverse their fortunes after a tough few weeks, and while their recent form makes it hard to anticipate a thumping win for them, they should still be able to knock off the Bunnies relatively easily. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cowboys to win	$1.37
	Cowboys -9.5	$1.90
	Cowboys 13+	$2.15

Predicted Squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs : 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jack Wighton 4. Taane Milne 5. Izaac Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Dion Teaupa 8. Davvy Moale 9. Damien Cook 10. Sean Keppie 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Siliva Havili 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Tallis Duncan 16. Tom Burgess 17. Michael Chee Kam 

North Queensland Cowboys : 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Villiami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Thomas Mikaele 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 16. Jason Taumalolo 17. Harrison Edwards 

Last year this would have been a top of the table clash, both of these teams ultimately making their way through to the final four – and the Panthers obviously going all the way – but while Penrith have continued their dominant run, the Warriors are struggling to replicate their impressive 2023 season. Since smacking the Rabbitohs around in early April they have failed to win again, their only points coming in a draw with the Sea Eagles the following week, and since then they have lost four on the trot, the latest by 20 points to the Roosters last weekend. And things get a lot tougher this Sunday afternoon when they face the Panthers, who in complete contrast to their opponents, have not lost for a month. They weren’t at their best against the vastly improved Bulldogs last weekend, but as they so often do they did just enough to get the chocolates in a low scoring game, taking their record to 7-2 and sending them past the Storm into second spot. Unfortunately that win came at a cost, with Nathan Cleary suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out for two months in what is turning out to be an injury-ravaged season for the star No. 7. But they’ve already been without him for plenty of games this year, and while there is no denying his importance, the three-time reigning Premiers have more than enough weapons running around to compensate for the absence of their best player. They should be able to extend both their own winning streak and the losing streak of the Warriors with a solid win on Sunday arvo. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Panthers to win	$1.28
	Panthers 1-12	$2.95
	Under 41.5 total match points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

New Zealand Warriors : 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Edward Kosi 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Dylan Walker 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Mitch Barnett 13. Tohu Harris 14. Taine Tuaupiki 15. Tom Ale 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Jacob Laban 

Penrith Panthers : 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Taylan May 5. Brian To'o 6. Jack Cole 7. Jarome Luai 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Daine Laurie 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Liam Henry 17. Mavrik Geyer 

The Storm’s extended winning streak came to an end last weekend when they went down to the Sharks, but they won’t be too concerned down at AAMI Park. That was a high quality game between two very good teams and disappointed though they would have been to go down, it was a solid performance particularly given that it was their first without star Ryan Papenhuyzen since he suffered a medium-term ankle injury. They’ve had an incredibly tight year of results, with all but one game being decided by eight points or less, but they should be able to get the job done by a bigger margin than that this weekend. With every passing week the Eels are looking less and less capable of making any sort of run for the finals, with the absence of a couple of key players really starting to come and bite them. They have now lost three games on the trot by pretty solid margins, the latest of which saw them go down 30-14 at the hands of the Broncos last weekend. They’re really struggling defensively at the moment, and against the Storm conceding another score of 30+ seems likely. This should be a solid victory for the Storm, who can bounce back from last week’s loss with a double-figure win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Storm to win	$1.35
	Storm -9.5	$1.90
	Storm over 27.5 points	$1.90

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Storm : 1. Sua Fa'alogo 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Christian Welch 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eli Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 17. Alec MacDonald 

Parramatta Eels : 1. Blaize Talagi 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitch Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi 

In Benji Marshall’s first season in charge, the Wests Tigers have managed to be relatively competitive most weeks this season, and last Saturday was no exception. But as they have most of the season, they were unable to translate that into the result that they were after, going down by six points to the Knights to make it six consecutive losses. This Sunday, they conclude Magic Round when they come up against the team that kickstarted that streak in the Dolphins. In Wayne Bennett’s final season in charge they are going about establishing themselves as a legitimate finals contender, and though they started last year well before gradually tumbling down the ladder, there is no doubting that they are a better team this year. Currently sitting in fourth they might be overachieving a little at the moment, but they are a really solid team, and have won two games on the trot against teams which may be competing for similar spots in the bottom half of the top eight later this year in the Cowboys and the Sea Eagles. They are a team that makes minimal errors and plays to a similar level most weeks, meaning that unlike a few others around them, the gap between their ceiling and their floor is not all that significant. They are the kind of team that shouldn’t often lose to the teams that they are better than, and with that in mind it’s hard to see them losing to the Tigers in this one. Marshall’s troops have been competitive over the past couple of weeks and should be able to avoid a blowout, but this should be a comfortable victory for the Dolphins. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dolphins to win	$1.40
	Dolphins 7+	$1.80
	Dolphins -8.5	$1.95

Predicted Squads

Wests Tigers : 1. Jahream Bula 2. Charlie Staines 3. Solomona Faataape 4. Justin Olam 5. Brent Naden 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Bud Sullivan 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Alex Twal 16. Asu Kepaoa 17. Tony Sukkar 

The Dolphins : 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Connelly Lemuelu 12. Euan Aitken 13. Max Plath 14. Josh Kerr 15. Feilise Kaufusi 16. Ray Stone 17. Kurt Donoghoe 

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