NRL 2023 Round 11 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
NRL Betting Tips
NRL 2024 Round 11
NRL 2023 Round 11

With Magic Round done and dusted we head to Round 11 of the NRL season, which kicks off with a huge clash between the Storm and the Broncos at AAMI Park. Another game between two of the best in the business follows on Friday when the Panthers host the Roosters, before the Raiders take on the Eels on Saturday and the Sea Eagles host the Sharks to conclude the round. Check out everything that you need to know about Round 11 below, including all the dates, times and odds, as well as our detailed match previews for all eight games.

Round 11 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Storm vs BroncosThursday the 11th of May, 7.50pm$1.73$2.10
Bulldogs vs WarriorsFriday the 12th of May, 6.00pm$2.20$1.67
Panthers vs RoostersFriday the 12th of May, 8.00pm$1.53$2.50
Rabbitohs vs TigersSaturday the 13th of May, 3.00pm$1.16$5.20
Cowboys vs DragonsSaturday the 13th of May, 5.30pm$1.45$2.75
Raiders vs EelsSaturday the 13th of May, 7.35pm$1.65$2.25
Knights vs TitansSunday the 14th of May, 2.00pm$1.95$1.85
Knights vs TitansSunday the 14th of May, 4.05pm$2.60$1.50

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos

Round 11 of the 2023 NRL season will kick off with a proverbial bang when the Storm host the top of the table Broncos on Thursday night. Both of these teams will likely be in the mix for a top four spot come season’s end, though the Storm are in desperate need of a win after two losses in the past three games. The latest of those was a comprehensive 28-12 defeat at the hands of the Rabbitohs last weekend, a defeat which took their record to 5-4. The Broncos, too, have been a victim of the rampaging Rabbitohs over the past fortnight, suffering their second loss of the season when they played them a couple of weeks ago, but they bounced back in emphatic fashion against the Sea Eagles in Magic Round. The Broncos were dominant in that victory, opening up a 20-0 lead at half-time, not conceding a single score until the 77th minute and ultimately running out 32-6 winners. Incredibly, they are undefeated on the road in five games so far this season, but AAMI Park is never an easy place to come away from with a win. The Storm have already dropped a couple there this year, but with a win very much required for them this weekend, they can hold off the Broncos in a tight, entertaining game.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Storm to win $1.73
Storm 1-12$3.10
Storm -2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Melbourne StormMelbourne Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Aaron Pene 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Tui Kamikamica

Brisbane BroncosBrisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tom Flegler  9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Keenan Palasia 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau

Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors

Both the Warriors and the Bulldogs were only ever outsiders to play finals this year, but they each find themselves within reach of the top eight as we near the halfway point of the season. The Bulldogs are third from the bottom, but with a record of 4-6 they’re just a couple of games from the Roosters in eighth, even after losing four of their past five, and they have a winnable game this Friday night against the Warriors. New Zealand, however, have been impressive so far this year, though a couple of consecutive losses have seen them fall out of the eight. Those losses, however, weren’t exactly season-enders. The Warriors have had a nightmare-ish few weeks of fixturing, facing the Storm, Roosters and Panthers over the past three weeks. They beat the Storm before going down in low-scoring games to the Roosters and Panthers, and find their record square at 5-5 as a result. They’ve scored just six points over the past fortnight which certainly won’t have done wonders for their confidence, but they should find scoring a little easier against the Bulldogs. This should be a tight game, and with both sides badly needing a win the Warriors can come away from Accor Stadium with the points that they seek.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Warriors to win $1.67
Warriors 1-12$3.10
Warriors -2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Canterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCanterbury Bulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Josh Reynolds 7. Matt Burton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Junior  11. Corey Waddell 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Karl Oloapu 15. Jayden Okunbor 16. Franklin Pele 17. Ryan Sutton

New Zealand WarriorsNew Zealand Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Marcelo Montoya 4. Adam Pompey 5. Rocco Berry 6. Dylan Walker 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Josh Curran 16. Mitch Barnett 17. Tom Ale

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters

Friday night will dish up a second blockbuster between top four hopefuls in as many nights when the Panthers play host to the Roosters at BlueBet Stadium. Though their 5-4 record is nothing to write home about for a team of their quality, the Panthers find themselves in third place with a points differential of 84, having conceded the least points in the league by some margin. They bounced back last weekend from a bizarre loss to the Tigers with a stingy 18-6 win over the Warriors, ending a two-game losing streak in the process. The Roosters, meanwhile, had a strange loss of their own last weekend, going down 20-6 against a Cowboys team which has struggled immensely this year. After a good first month, the Roosters haven’t been the team they’re capable of being for a few weeks now, and against Penrith they can’t afford to be anything below their best. If they find that this will be a terrific game, but it’s hard to tip against the Panthers in Penrith at the best of times. With the Roosters in average form, Penrith should be able to grind them out in a tough, low-scoring affair.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Panthers/Panthers half-time/full-time double $2.15
Under 39.5 total game points$1.91
Panthers to win$1.48

Predicted Squads

Penrith PanthersPenrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o  6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon

Sydney Roosters

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco2. Corey Allan 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Billy Smith 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Joey Manu 7. Luke Keary 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Drew Hutchison 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Fletcher Baker 17. Matt Lodge 

  • The Eels have won five of their last six games against the Raiders.
  • The last time the Broncos beat the Storm was way back in 2016; the Storm have beaten them 12 times in a row since.
  • The Panthers last four games have been under the total match points over/under of 39.5, while four of the Roosters last five have been, too. 

Multi of the Week

Eels to win$2.25
Storm to win$1.73
Panthers vs Roosters under 39.5 total match points$1.90
Bet $10 for $73.96 with PlayUp

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers

The Rabbitohs might just be the best team in the business at the moment. They’ve reeled off five victories in a row, with their last three being a defeat of the Panthers, a crushing of the Broncos, and most recently a comfortable win over the Melbourne Storm. Over that period, the cumulative score of their games is 166-66, and that hasn’t exactly been against easy opponents. That doesn’t bode particularly well for the Tigers, though if ever they were going to head into the Bunnies heartland, now might be the time given they’ve won two games on the trot. That, of course, is after they lost their first seven. Their first win of the season came very unexpectedly against the Panthers, and they franked that win last weekend with another tight victory over the Dragons. But while it’s good to see them snare a couple of wins, they won’t be doing the same against the Rabbitohs. Of course, we said that a couple of weeks ago when they took on the Panthers, but it’s hard to see lightning striking twice given the form of the Bunnies. This should be a cakewalk for South Sydney.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Rabbitohs to win $1.16
Over 45.5 total match points$1.91
Rabbitohs -15.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

South Sydney RabbitohsSouth Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Michael Chee Kam 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jed Cartwright 15. Jai Arrow 16. Liam Knight 17. Thomas Burgess

Wests Tigers

Wests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To'a 4. Tommy Talau 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Asu Kepaoa 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin  15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Alex Twal 17. Alex Seyfarth

North Queensland Cowboys vs St. George Illawarra Dragons

The Cowboys have at long last earned themselves a win against a good team, knocking off the Roosters last week 20-6 in an impressive display. Unfortunately, that has not been the kind of performance they’ve delivered throughout the course of the season after making a Preliminary Final last year. With the win they moved to 4-6 and 14th place, and a -54 points differential is symptomatic of a team which has played very poorly this year. Still, their effort against the Roosters was a vast improvement, and with a winnable game coming up this weekend perhaps they can get on a roll. The Dragons have struggled immensely so far this season and have now lost five games in a row after they went down by two points to the Wests Tigers last weekend. With that loss, they now find themselves at 2-7, ahead of only that Tigers team which just beat them on the NRL ladder. The Cowboys may have been a shadow of their former selves so far this year, but they should be able to make it two wins in as many games this Saturday.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cowboys to win $1.43
Cowboys 13+$2.55
Cowboys -6.5$1.92

Predicted Squads

North Queensland CowboysNorth Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jack Gosiewski 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Mitch Dunn 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown
17. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

St. George Illawarra DragonsSt. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mat Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Jayden Sullivan 8. Jack De Belin 9. Ben Hunt 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Billy Burns 12. Jaydn Su'a 13. Jack Bird 14. Moses Mbye 15. Michael Molo 16. Ben Murdoch-Masila 17. Josh Kerr

Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels

After another dreadful start to the year, the Raiders have managed to drag themselves back into finals contention with five consecutive victories, the latest of which was a four-point defeat of the Titans last weekend. That looked like being a comfortable win after they established a 14-point lead in the second half, but a pair of late tries meant that they only just hung on. But hung on they did, taking their record to 5-4 and giving them a chance to jump inside the top eight with a win this weekend. They’ll need to beat last year’s Grand Finallists to do so, but that’s not exactly the hardest test in the league at the minute. The Eels had a rough start to the year with a number of close losses to good teams, but as their fixture has softened the wins have started to come. Unfortunately, they couldn’t continue that trend last weekend, going down 26-24 to the Titans. Disappointing though that win was, however, and despite the Raiders having won five in a row, the Eels can win this. The Raiders’ streak has been solid and began with wins over the Panthers and Broncos, but over the past three weeks they’ve beaten the Dragons by six points, the Dolphins by one point and the Bulldogs by four. The Eels should present a sterner challenge than those teams, and can win a tight one.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Eels to win $2.25
Eels 1-12$3.40
Eels +3.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Canberra RaidersCanberra Raiders: 1. Sebastian Kris  2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jarrod Croker  4. Matt Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Ata Mariota

Parramatta EelsParramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Jake Arthur 8. Wiremu Greig 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Andrew Davey 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Brendan Hands 16. Ryan Matterson  17. Makahesi Makatoa

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Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans

The Knights had a much-needed week off last week after three consecutive losses, the latest of which was a 31-point drubbing at the hands of the Eels. They now find themselves with a 3-5 record after a strong start to the year, and needing a win over the in-form Titans to keep pace with the top eight. The Titans have had a strong fortnight, franking their victory over the Sea Eagles two weeks ago with an impressive 26-24 win over the Eels to take them up to seventh place with a 5-4 record. They’re still not exactly world beaters defensively and have conceded the third most points in the league, but they’ve looked dangerous with ball in hand. It remains difficult to trust this team, but there’s no denying that they’ve been very solid the last two weeks and deserve to be favourites in this game. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Titans -1.5 $1.95
Titans by 7 or more$2.35
Titans to win$1.80

Predicted Squads

Newcastle KnightsNewcastle Knights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Kalyn Ponga  7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Jacob Saifiti  16. Mat Croker 17. Jack Hetherington 

Gold Coast TitansGold Coast Titans: 1. Jayden Campbell 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami  6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Isaac Liu 14. Keano Kini 15. Erin Clark 16. Klese Haas 17. Joe Vuna

Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks

After a relatively strong start to the season, things are quickly going downhill for the Sea Eagles. Two weeks ago they suffered a disappointing 26-10 loss with Tom Trbojevic absent, but even upon his return last week they weren’t a whole lot better, going down without so much as a whimper against the Broncos. This week, they’ve got another tough matchup against a Sharks side baying for blood after a disappointing loss last weekend. Cronulla had been gradually starting to look a lot like the side that finished second last year following three consecutive wins, but their defence which has been such a pillar of their improvement was notably absent last weekend as they went down 36-16. Don’t expect them to let that happen two weeks in a row. The Sharks have been impressive on the road so far this season, and against a Manly side which has scored just 16 points in the past two weeks, they can put the defensive brakes on and jump straight back onto the winners’ list. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Sharks to win $1.52
Under 45.5 total match points$1.91
Sharks -5.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Manly Warringah Sea EaglesManly Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolu Koula 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cooper Johns 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Sean Keppie 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Josh Aloiai 14. Karl Lawton 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Aaron Woods

Cronulla-Sutherland SharksCronulla Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi  9. Blayke Brailey 10. Royce Hunt 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Cam McInnes 15. Jack Williams 16. Wade Graham 17. Thomas Hazelton

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