AFL 2024 Round 12 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

This weekend will officially mark the halfway point of the AFL home and away season, and will also see the first of four consecutive bye rounds. Four teams will enjoy a week off over Round 12, some very much deserved – the Swans a case in point – and some a little less so – looking at you, North Melbourne. Among the seven games that will take place are a couple of very good ones, kicking off with the Power hosting the Blues on Thursday night before the Magpies host the Bulldogs at the MCG the next evening. In fact, in all but one game this weekend there looks like a very real possibility of the underdog getting up, making for what should be an entertaining few days of footy despite the relative lack of games. Take a look at our previews and predictions for all seven games of Round 12 below.  

Since their disappointing Showdown loss a month ago, the Power have reeled off three consecutive wins to take their record to 8-3, enough to have them sitting in third place nearly halfway through the year. They still aren’t in the upper echelon of Premiership contenders according to most of the AFL public – or the bookmakers – but they have shown at times throughout the year that they are very capable of matching it with the big boys, and this Thursday night they get another great opportunity to do just that in front of their home crowd. The eyes of the football world will be well and truly on them to see if they can match it with a side widely tipped to be right in the mix at the business end of the season, and with the Blues at the back end of a really tough stretch of games which saw them fall out of the eight, the home side is well and truly in with a chance in this one. Carlton had to face each of the five other Premiership favourites in as many weeks, winning two and losing three of those games, and while the first two losses were very much honourable ones, a 52-point loss to the Swans was far from ideal. They bounced back strongly on their home turf against the Suns last weekend, winning that by 29 points to jump back to eighth spot, but solid as Gold Coast is, this will be a tougher matchup. Of particular interest in this game will be the midfield battle, with the wildly talented young Power mids going head to head with the likes of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh. How that battle plays out will have a big impact on the final result, but if the Blues can even manage to keep it relatively level, they will have a big advantage up forward. The Power’s defence has been the subject of plenty of criticism in the past, and while they’ve added to their key stocks this season by adding Esava Ratugolea to join Aliir Aliir, it’s still not the strongest backline in the league, and Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay will be very, very hard to contain. In a tight, entertaining game, the Blues can start the season with an upset win on the road.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$2.30
	Blues +8.5	$1.91
	Blues 1-39	$2.75

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: K. Farrell, E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher HB: M. Bergman, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, M. Georgiades F: Z. Butters, J. Finlayson, F. Evans FOLL:  J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, C. Rozee - C I/C: J. Mead, J. McEntee, La. Jones, R. Burton, J. Burgoyne EMG: D. Visentini, T. Anastasopoulos, Q. Narkle 

Carlton Blues: B: A. Saad, J. Weitering, L. Cowan HB: B. Kemp, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: Z. Williams, H. McKay, E. Hollands F: O. Fantasia, C. Curnow, M. Owies FOLL:  T. De Koning, S. Walsh, M. Kennedy I/C: J. Boyd, G. Hewett, J. Binns, L. Fogarty, J. Carroll EMG: C. Durdin, Le. Young, A. Cincotta

The Magpies have well and truly turned around their form since a slow start to the season, but they will be incensed about their draw with the Dockers last Friday night. While they earned two points for that game, they will be thinking far more about the two extra that they missed out on after leading that game by 25 points more than halfway through the final quarter, only to concede the last four goals of the game and end up all square for the second time in just five weeks. But disappointing as the ending to that game was, the Magpies still haven’t lost in eight weeks and are increasingly looming as a very real chance to go back to back this year – something many had already written off just a few weeks ago after they lost their first three games of the year. This Friday night they will be favoured to make it nine weeks without a loss, but they can’t afford to take the Bulldogs lightly. Luke Beveridge and his chargers have always been a dangerous side on their day but their inconsistency has made them a difficult team to predict, but since their disappointing loss to the Hawks a month ago they have played really well for three consecutive weeks. The first two of those resulted in victories, and while they didn’t manage that last weekend, they could certainly hold their head high after taking it up to Sydney despite suffering three match-ending injuries throughout the course of that game. And while they went down by 14 points, the result could easily have been different if they made a little more of their opportunities; they had 28 scoring shots to 22 and had the running for large portions of the game against a side that few others have been able to get near this year. If they play like that again this weekend then this will be a high quality game between two good teams, and the Bulldogs are certainly not without a shot. But impressive as the Dogs have been the last three weeks, the Magpies are in the absolute upper echelon of teams and will be raging after dropping those two extra points last weekend. In an entertaining game, the reigning Premiers should be able to edge out the Dogs, who may be in for a second gallant defeat in as many weeks. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.70
	Magpies -4.5	$1.91
	Magpies 1-39	$2.30

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: J. Howe, D. Moore - C, B. Frampton HB: I. Quaynor, J. Noble, S. Pendlebury C: S. Sidebottom, B. McCreery, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, N. Daicos, A. Johnson F: E. Allan, P. Lipinski, H. Harrison FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, L. Schultz I/C: B. Maynard, R. McInnes, L. Sullivan, W. Parker, N. Kreuger EMG: C. Dean, F. Macrae, J. Bytel

Western Bulldogs: B: L. Bramble, L. Jones, R. Sanders HB: T. Duryea, A. Keath, B. Dale C: B. Williams, A. Treloar, J. Harmes HF: L. Vandermeer, R. Lobb, O. Baker F: S. Darcy, J. Ugle-Hagan, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, J. Macrae I/C: C. Daniel, J. Freijah, H. Gallagher, R. Garcia, L. Cleary EMG: L. McNeil, R. Lobb, A. Jones 

Ostensibly this game might not look particularly interesting, these two sides sitting 14th and 12th on the AFL ladder, but those ladder positions bely the fact that each of them is beginning to come into some really good form after poor starts to the season. Though the Hawks are undeniably at least a couple of years behind the Crows in their development, there were plenty of expectations that they would improve this year after a few impressive results late last year. They didn’t live up to that early with five consecutive losses to start the year, but they have won four of six since then with the only loss coming by just a point to the Power which it’s hard to imagine happening again if the last 30 seconds was replayed 1,000 times. They couldn’t have bounced back from that defeat better, last week dishing out a 25-point defeat to the Lions at the MCG. If they can manage to repeat that effort this year, they will go to 5-7 and suddenly find themselves within a couple of games of the top eight. The side that they will have to beat, however, is looking to do exactly the same thing, and after their past few weeks has every reason to believe that they can beat most teams in the league right now. The Crows have lost just one of their last five, with that coming by just four points to the Magpies at the MCG, and last week they bounced back emphatically from that defeat with a 99-point demolition of the much-improved Eagles last Sunday. They are beginning to look much more like the team that so drastically improved last season than the one which started this year so poorly, and though many have written them off already they could easily find themselves right back in the top eight mix within a couple of weeks. This has the potentially to be a really entertaining game between two intriguing teams, but while the Hawks are more than capable of winning it, it’s hard to go past the Crows given how they have played over the last month or so.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.67
	Crows -6.5	$1.91
	Crows 1-39	$2.25

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Impey - C, S. Frost, C. Jiath HB: K. Amon, J. Sicily, M. D’Ambrosio C: C. Nash, J. Worpel, J. Weddle HF: W. Day, C. Mackenzie, L. Breust F: J. Ginnivan, B. Hardwick, M. Chol FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, D. Moore I/C: C. Macdonald, S. Mitchell, C. Dear, J. Gunston, J. Scrimshaw EMG: F. Maginness, E. Phillips, J. Ward 

Adelaide Crows: B: B. Smith, J. Butts, C. Jones HB: J. Borlase, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: M. Hinge, J. Soligo, J. Dawson - C HF: L. Sholl, T. Walker, J. Rachele F: C. Burgess, D. Fogarty, L. Murphy FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, H. Schoenberg I/C: M. Crouch, B. Cook, S. Berry, L. Nankervis, B. Keays EMG: W. Hamill, N. McHenry, K. Strachan 

• Though they sit in eighth place, the Blues have only lost two games by more than a goal this year, one of which was by just 13 points.  
• The Eagles have won three of their last four games at home (against the Tigers, Dockers and Demons) each by at least 35 points.  
• The Suns have won four from four at Metricon Stadium this year, those wins coming by an average of 41 points.  

Multi of the Week

The Eagles have shown demonstrable improvement this year, putting in a number of performances that would have been unfathomable for this team this time last season. But last week continued a trend that has endured throughout the season to date, one which has seen them play like a genuinely dangerous side no matter who they played on their home turf, only to return to the Eagles of the past couple of years away from home. After knocking off the Demons by six goals in their best performance for years a fortnight ago, they headed to Adelaide last Sunday and were torn to shreds by the Crows, going down by 99 points in a result which probably flattered them given how comprehensively they were belted throughout the course of the game. That’s a trend that they will be keen to arrest at some point, but for this week they’ll be more than happy for it to continue when they return home to take on the Saints. And there is every chance that it will. After making the finals last year, Ross Lyon’s second year of his second tenure in charge at Moorabin is quickly turning into a disaster. They were no match for the Demons last weekend, going down by 38 points in what was their sixth loss in seven games, and with the only win in that time coming against the Kangaroos. Their ability to hit the scoreboard with any sort of regularity has been non-existent all year, with only two games – including the one against the Kangaroos – yielding more than 80 points, and in the last three weeks they have failed to kick more than nine goals once. If they get the Eagles who turned up to Adelaide Oval last week, the Saints should be able to put up a score and give this a shake, but the Eagles last four home games have seen them beat the Demons, Dockers and Tigers by about six goals each, and go down to the Bombers by just six points. That form stacks up extremely well against the struggling Saints, and while it’s difficult to fully trust how this Eagles team will perform week to week, they deserve to be favourites in this game, and it would be no great surprise to see them win it reasonably comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Eagles to win	$1.74
	Eagles -4.5	$1.91
	Eagles 25+	$3.10

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: J. Rotham, T. Barrass, B. Hough HB: T. Cole, J. McGovern, L. Duggan - C C: J. Hunt, T. Kelly, R. Ginbey HF: D. Sheed, J. Waterman, J. Cripps F: L. Ryan, J. Darling, R. Maric FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, H. Reid I/C: C. Chesser, A. Witherden, J. Jones, A. Gaff, Z. Trew EMG: J. Williams, T. Dewar, H. Edwards

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: J. Webster, L. Stocker, N. Wanganeen-Milera C: J. Webster, L. Stocker, N. Wanganeen-Milera HF: D. Wilson, B. Hill, L. Henry F: M. Owens, M. King, T. Membrey FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, M. Windhager I/C: J. Higgins, H. Clark, P. Dow, R. Bonner, O. Hotton EMG: Z. Jones, R. Byrnes, B. Paton 

It’s been a funny old season for the Cats. They were the final remaining undefeated team a month ago, having won seven on a trot to start the year, but in the month since they haven’t won a game. Granted it has been a tough run of matches, but they have still looked like a shadow of the team they were for the first couple of months of the season, suffering two losses on what has for so long been such a fortress in Kardinia Park, and also getting belted by the Suns in that time. That stretch of losses has seen them gone from a Premiership favourite to losing touch with the top five in the betting odds, but this weekend they get a great opportunity to get back on the winners’ list. The Tigers’ injuries have been well-documented and for the most part they have remained pretty competitive for most of the year, though over the past month it all appeared to get a bit much for this young team and a few beltings in a row ensued. Last Saturday night, however, in front of a big crowd for Dreamtime at the G, they recaptured that competitive spirit. Led by a resurgent Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton, both of whom were among the best players on the ground, they took it right up to the second placed Bombers and could very easily have won that game. Though they ultimately fell a couple of goals short, it was a much-improved effort, and with a number of best 22 players set to return either this week or within the next couple, they should be able to avoid the kinds of defeats handed to them by the Bulldogs, Lions and to a lesser extent the Dockers over the past few weeks. Regardless of who they get back, however, and despite the poor form of their opposition this week over the past month, it is hard to see them beating the Cats this weekend. Kardinia Park may not be as intimidating a trip at the moment as it has been at the past, but this presents as a good opportunity for Geelong to recapture their groove on their home turf. It would be no surprise to see the Tigers crack in and be competitive in the early stages of this game, but as it wears on the hardened Cats should be able to run away with it relatively comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers +23.5 first half	$1.88
	Dustin Martin to score 2+ goals	$2.80
	Cats 1-39	$2.75

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, J. Kolodjashnij HB: T. Stewart - C, M. Holmes, O. Mullin C: O. Dempsey, T. Bruhn, Z. Tuohy HF: T. Stengle, B. Close, G. Miers F: S. Neale, T. Hawkins, O. Henry FOLL: T. Conway, M. Blicavs, M. Duncan I/C: S. De Koning, J. Bowes, T. Atkins, J. Cameron, J. Clark EMG: C. O’Sullivan, S. Mannagh, M. O’Connor

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, J. Short HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, L. Baker, K. McIntosh HF: M. Pickett, R. Mansell, T. Sonsie F: M. Lefau, D. Martin, N. Balta FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, D. Prestia, T. Dow I/C: S. Campbell, J. Graham, K. McAuliffe, S. Ryan, N. Cumberland EMG: K. Smith, S. Banks, S. Green

If you like watching good team defence, then Sunday’s first game is a must-watch. The Demons and the Dockers are two of the three stingiest teams in the league from a points conceded perspective, with only the Swans having given up less points than the two of them. That has resulted in solid starts to the season for both of them, the Dees sitting at 7-4 and the Dockers at 6-1-4, though each of them will still feel like they have plenty of scope for improvement. The Demons had lost two on the trot prior to last week, the first of which was by just a point to the Blues but the second of which saw them beaten comprehensively by the Eagles in a really disappointing showing. But they bounced back strongly last weekend, flexing their collective muscle against the Saints and running out 38-point winners in a game they never looked like losing. The Dockers, meanwhile, managed to snatch two points from a game that they looked certain to lose with a few minutes to go, booting four goals in a row late to tie things up at 75 apiece against the Magpies on Friday night. With that result they have now lost just one of their last five games, and a couple of performances aside have consistently been really solid all year long. They might not get the noise of some similarly capable sides on the east coast of the country, but the Dockers are a strong side and should be able to take it up to the Dees, even at the MCG, this Sunday. This game will be a real arm wrestle, with two strong midfields and defences likely to make it very difficult for each other to score. On their home turf the Demons should be able to get the job done, but they will be made to work very hard for their spoils by the visitors. They can secure a relatively narrow win in an intriguing and low-scoring affair.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$1.48
	Demons 1-39	$2.15
	Demons 1-24	$3.10

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B:  J. Bowey, S. May, T. Rivers HB:  J. McVee, T. McDonald, A. Tomlinson C: E. Langdon, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF: A. Neal-Bullen, B. Brown, K. Pickett F: K. Chandler, B. Fritsch, S. McAdam FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, C. Petracca I/C: J. van Rooyen, L. Hunter, T. Sparrow, T. Woewodin, C. Salem EMG: J. Billings, B. Howes, T. Fullarton 

Fremantle Dockers: B: H. Chapman, A. Pearce - C, J. Draper HB: J. Aish, L. Ryan, J. Clark C:  J. Sharp, A. Brayshaw, H. Young  HF: PM. Walters, S. Switkowski, L. Jackson F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, J. O’Meara FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong, N. Fyfe  I/C:  B. Banfield, M. Johnson, N. Erasmus, B. Walker, P. Voss EMG: T. Emmett, C. Wagner, S. Sturt 

After putting in one of the best performances in their history against the Cats a couple of weeks ago, the Suns were unable to back things up last weekend, going down pretty comfortably to the Blues down in Melbourne. But this Sunday, they return to their home deck, where they have lost just a solitary game – that coming to the Giants in Round 3 – all year. The Suns have overall started life under Damian Hardwick relatively solidly with six wins from their first 11 games, but they have many times before been in this position only to fall a couple of games short of the finals. With so many good teams floating around there is a good chance of that happening again this season, but a win against the second-placed Bombers would be a great way to raise those expectations. Essendon, as they continue their hunt for a first finals win in 20 years, have started this season far better than anyone expected, losing just two of their first 11 games. But while they certainly appear to have improved, the jury is still out on how much. A percentage of 104. 4% to go with an 8-1-2 record is something which is often indicative of an overperforming team, and last weekend they didn’t exactly set the world on fire as they just barely kept the struggling Tigers at bay, winning Dreamtime at the G by 12 points. The return of Jordan Ridley was pivotal in that game, the defender putting together a best on ground performance, and he will be a valuable part of their push to continue the form they have displayed so far this season. But while it may sound unfair to judge them harshly given they have barely lost all year, it is really hard to imagine the Bombers staying anywhere near their current position on the ladder as the season wears on. They are not nearly as far ahead of the Suns as the two teams’ ladder positions would indicate, and on a home ground which Gold Coast have turned into a fairly difficult place to play, the visitors might well be due for their first loss since the beginning of April.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Suns to win	$1.65
	Suns -7.5	$1.91
	Suns 25+	$2.85

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, C. Ballard, M. Andrew HB: S. Flanders, B. Uwland, J. Jeffrey C: D. Swallow, T. Miller - C, S. Clohesy HF: J. Walter, B. Long, L. Johnston F: B. King, M. Rowell, J. Lukosius FOLL:  J. Witts, N. Anderson, B. Humphrey I/C: A. Sexton, N. Holman, B. Ainsworth, T. Berry, M. Rosas Jr EMG: A. Davies, B. Fiorini, J. Rogers

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: D. Heppell, S. Durham, J. Kelly HF: J. Gresham, H. Jones, A. Perkins F: J. Stringer, P. Wright, K. Langford FOLL: T. Goldstein, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C  I/C: E. Tsatas, N. Cox, N. Hind, A. Davey Jnr, M. Guelfi EMG: A. Roberts, N. Bryan, J. Menzie 

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