AFL 2024 Round 13 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The first of the bye rounds is now complete, with the abridged, seven-game Round 12 throwing up a number of surprising results. It kicked off with the Blues flexing their muscle on the road against the Power, while later in the weekend the Bulldogs held off an injury-ravaged Magpies team, the Dockers pulled off a stunning 92-point win over the Demons, and the Suns brought the Bombers’ winning streak to an end with a hard-fought victory on Sunday afternoon. Just two teams will enjoy the weekend off in Round 13, giving us eight long weekend games to get excited for over the course of five days. Sunday and Monday, in particular, look likely to be quality days of footy; the Swans host the Cats before the Bombers take on the Blues on Sunday, while Monday will see the traditional King’s Birthday Clash between the Demons and Magpies conclude the round’s action. Take a look at our previews for all eight games this weekend below.

Season 2024 has not gone exactly to plan for either of these teams, but the Crows will view this is a great opportunity to try to bounce straight back from a really disappointing loss last weekend. After seemingly beginning to find their feet with three wins and a draw in the previous five weeks, including 99-point belting of the Eagles two weeks ago, Adelaide were slow out of the blocks against an improving Hawthorn outfit at the MCG, ultimately proving unable to recover from a two-goal opening half. After putting themselves within reaching distance of the top eight that loss sent them tumbling back to 14th, but while they have looked mediocre at times, a 4-7-1 record is not indicative of what this team is capable. They have still had moments where they have looked like the team which improved so dramatically last year, and back on their home turf this weekend against the Tigers they should be able to notch up a fifth win of the season. Richmond’s incredibly unfortunate run with injuries continued last Saturday night, with impressive first-season forward Mykelti Lefau becoming their fifth player this season alone to suffer a season ending ACL injury. Disappointing though that was, however, the young Tigers showed great signs in that game, taking it up to the Cats in Geelong despite missing half of their best 22. The competitivity which so defined them earlier in the year appears to have returned over the past couple of weeks, and though they haven’t got the chocolates in either of those games they have been relatively impressive given the cards that they have been dealt against the Bombers and Geelong in that time. If they can bring the intensity that they have the past fortnight then they will certainly make Adelaide work for their spoils, but the home side should nonetheless be too strong.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows 1-39	$2.35
	Tigers +35.5	$1.91
	Tigers +18.5 first half	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: B. Smith, J. Butts, C. Jones HB: J. Borlase, M. Keane, M. Michalanney C: M. Hinge, J. Soligo, J. Dawson - C HF: L. Sholl, T. Walker, J. Rachele F: C. Burgess, D. Fogarty, B. Keays FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, H. Schoenberg I/C: B. Dowling, S. Berry, L. Nankervis, B. Cook, L. Murphy EMG: W. Hamill, N. McHenry, K. Strachan

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, J. Short HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, L. Baker, K. McIntosh HF: S. Bolton, R. Mansell, T. Sonsie F: S. Ryan, J. Koschitzke, N. Cumberland FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, J. Graham, D. Prestia I/C: S. Campbell, K. Smith, K. McAuliffe, T. Dow, N. Balta EMG: S. Green, S. Banks, J. Bauer 

The Bulldogs are, at long last, starting to look like a consistently good team. In contrast to the erratic form which has been synonymous with them for so long and which they displayed earlier in the year, over the past month they have played well every weekend, and last Friday night notched up their third win in four games against an admittedly injury-ravaged Collingwood. That followed on from a tight loss to the Swans in a game that they easily could have won, a victory over the Giants and a thumping of the Tigers, and took their record to 6-6. Their percentage, however, is third to only the Swans and the Blues (and very nearly equal to the latter); they remain a difficult team to trust, but those kinds of numbers are suggesting that maybe, this is actually just a good team. This Friday night’s game gives them another chance to prove as much, and a win over last year’s Grand Finalists after the way they have played over the past month would add further credibility to their finals push. Of course, the Lions have not been the team this year that they were last and are clearly affected by injuries, but they did play some decent footy throughout May. That came to an end in their most recent game when they were beaten comfortably by the Hawks, but Hawthorn are beginning to show that maybe that is not as bad a loss as it might have seemed a few weeks ago. The Lions have had a week off to think about that game, and it will be interesting to see how they return in what is a really pivotal game for them. If Brisbane goes down here it will take their record to 4-7-1 and make even playing finals very difficult. Refreshed after a week off they should come out firing, and though the Bulldogs appear to be shedding their tag as one of the AFL’s most frustrating teams, the visitors are a good chance of causing an upset on Friday night.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$2.40
	Lions +9.5	$1.91
	Lions 1-39	$2.20

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B:  L. Bramble, L. Jones, A. Keath HB: T. Duryea, J. O’Donnell, B. Dale C: E. Richards, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: R. Garcia, R. Lobb, J. Macrae F: S. Darcy, J. Ugle-Hagan, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli – C, T. Liberatore I/C: C. Daniel, J. Freijah, H. Gallagher, L. McNeil, R. Sanders EMG: L. Cleary, B. Khamis, C. Poulter

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews - C, C. McKenna C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, L. Morris, H. McCluggage F: K. Lohmann, J. Daniher, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C: C. Ah Chee, H. Sharp, E. Hipwood, N. Answerth, B. Reville EMG: H. Smith, J. Tunstill, D. Joyce 

Are the Hawks good? After a poor start to the season they have really come into their own over the past few weeks, winning four of their last five games during an impressive run of form. That loss, too, should really have been a win, after a late-game capitulation against the Power in Adelaide saw them go down by a point. Back on their home turf the last two weeks they have knocked off the Lions and then the Crows by four goals each, and with the Saints and the Bulldogs their other scalps during the last five weeks there is a case to be made that they are one of the more in-form teams in the competition right now. That’s certainly not the standing that they have in the eyes of the AFL public and they did still lose their first five of the year just a couple of months ago, but the way they are playing now they are capable of giving the Giants a run for their money. They will have to travel themselves this weekend, but Launceston has typically been a happy hunting ground for them and they come up against a Giants’ team which is not quite as formidable as it was early in the season. After establishing themselves as arguably the Premiership favourite a couple of months in, GWS lost four games in five weeks to fall back to the pack, though they did appear to bounce back to some of their best form in their most recent outing when they came away from Geelong with an impressive four-point victory over the Cats. They subsequently enjoyed a week off and will come into this game refreshed, but they will need to play really well to notch up a win this week given how impressive the Hawks have been of late. This could be a really entertaining game and if Hawthorn win it, they will well on track to establishing themselves as a team which could be a surprise entrant into the top eight this year. Maybe that’s a bridge too far, but another win against a quality opponent would be hard to ignore. They can give this a red hot crack, but the Giants looked to have recaptured their groove in their last outing and can eke out a win in their first game back from the bye.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants to win	$1.62
	Giants -7.5	$1.91
	Giants 16+	$2.25

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Impey, S. Frost, C. Jiath HB: K. Amon, J. Sicily - C, W. Day C:  J. Scrimshaw, C. Nash, J. Weddle HF: L. Breust, D. Moore, C. Dear F: J. Gunston, B. Hardwick, M. Chol FOLL: N. Reeves, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie I/C: S. Mitchell, M. D’Ambrosio, J. Worpel, C. Macdonald, J. Ginnivan EMG: E. Phillips, M. Ramsden, F. Maginness 

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, H. Perryman C: N. Haynes, T. Green, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, A. Cadman, T. McMullin F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, H. Thomas FOLL: K. Briggs, J. Wehr, S. Coniglio I/C:  L. Aleer, X. O’Halloran, R. Angwin, J. Riccardi, J. Peatling EMG: C. Stone, H. Rowston, L. Keeffe

• Impressive though the Bombers have been this season, of their eight wins only one has been against a team currently in the top eight, that being the seventh placed Giants.  
• The Swans have won all five of their home games this season, each of them by at least 29 points.  
• The Kangaroos have lost every game this year by at least 26 points, and every game since Round 2 by at least 38 points.  

Multi of the Week

These two sides were pitted in a battle for bottom spot all last year, and while that is typically a battle nobody wants to win, the Eagles would be feeling pretty comfortably about finishing last given that it yielded them Harley Reid. So far he has been every bit as good as advertised and then some, but he is far from the only reason that they have demonstrated so much improvement this year. The Eagles have a number of players who have significantly lifted their output in 2024, Jake Waterman perhaps the most notable example up forward while Elliott Yeo has also wound back the clock. Unfortunately, Reid appears set to miss this game through suspension, though Waterman should return after being a late out and Tim Kelly, too. Regardless, based on what the Kangaroos have dished up so far this season, the home side should have no problems picking up their fourth win of the season on Saturday. The Kangaroos remain winless this year and have not yet got close, their latest game another drubbing – this one by 59 points at the hands of the Power before they enjoyed a much-needed week off last weekend. The corresponding game last year was a tight one, but the Eagles have improved a lot since then and the Roos, to put it bluntly, have not. West Coast is still unsurprisingly relatively erratic and if they play the way that they have at various points this year, the visitors could stand a chance, but in general those performances have been reserved for games played outside of Perth. At home the Eagles have been relatively consistent, winning a few games against good teams comfortably and losing most of the others in tight fashion, and if they can again bring that level of performance then they should be too strong for the Kangaroos.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Eagles to win	$1.32
	Eagles -20.5	$1.91
	Eagles 25+	$2.02

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: H. Edwards, T. Barrass, T. Cole HB: B. Hough, J. McGovern, L. Duggan - C C: C. Chesser, E. Yeo, R. Ginbey HF: J. Jones, J. Waterman, L. Ryan F: J. Cripps, J. Darling, B. Williams FOLL: M. Flynn, Z. Trew, T. Kelly I/C: A. Gaff, D. Sheed, J. Petruccelle, A. Witherden, R. Maric EMG: Z. Trew, J. Hutchinson, J. Culley 

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, L. McDonald - C HB: Z. Fisher, H. Sheezel, C. McKercher C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, L. Shiels HF: J. Stephenson, C. Zurhaar, C. Taylor F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, E. Ford FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, T. Powell I/C: Simpkin, C. Lazzaro, T. Pink, W. Dawson, B. Scott EMG: H. Greenwood, R. Hansen Jr, D. Stephens 

Having not beaten anyone aside from the Kangaroos for close to two months, the Saints badly needed a win heading into last week’s clash with the Eagles, and that is exactly what they got. As mentioned above the Eagles are a little difficult to predict in their current stage of development, but they have recently knocked off the Demons and the Dockers comfortably at Optus Stadium, so for the Saints to come away from there with a win was a solid performance. They will likely need another one this weekend up against a Suns team that has won three of its last four games, the last two of which have been particularly impressive. Following on from their demolition of the Cats three weeks ago, they were beaten reasonably soundly, but last week bounced back to knock off the Bombers, who previously had dropped just two games all year. They were solid throughout that game and as they have so many times before, have established themselves as a legitimate finals contender halfway through the season. What they have not previously been able to do, however, is consolidate that in the back half of the season. With a three-time Premiership coach at the helm, perhaps this could be the year. A win in this game would take them to 8-5 and give them a really strong jumping block from which to attack the second half of the season. For the Saints, meanwhile, finals is probably already a bridge too far for them, but a loss here would make it virtually impossible while a win could at least keep them interested for a little longer. This looks like being a relatively tight game and as with all St. Kilda games, won’t likely be a particularly high scoring one, but on the road the Suns can continue their strong run of form with another solid victory.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Suns to win	$1.77
	Suns -3.5	$1.91
	Suns 16+	$2.50

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: J. Webster, N. Wanganeen-Milera, R. Bonner C: B. Crouch, J. Sinclair, M. Wood  HF: D. Wilson, B. Hill, M. Owens F: T. Membrey, M. King, A. Caminiti FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, P. Dow I/C: J. Higgins, M. Windhager, H. Clark, D. Butler, L. Henry EMG: Z. Jones, B. Paton, T. Campbell

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, C. Ballard, M. Andrew HB: S. Flanders, J. Jeffrey, A. Sexton C: M. Rowell, T. Miller - C, S. Clohesy HF: T. Berry, B. Humphrey, L. Johnston F: B. King, B. Long, J. Lukosius FOLL: J. Witts, N. Anderson, D. Swallow I/C: N. Holman, B. Ainsworth, S. Day, W. Graham, B. Uwland EMG: A. Davies, R. Atkins, S. Day 

Sunday kicks off with what looms as one of the best games of the weekend when the Swans host the Cats for a rematch of the 2022 Grand Final. Neither team had a great follow up to that finals appearance last year, but each of them has re-established themselves as a contender this year, particularly the Swans. They have been the best team in the league this season by some margin, dropping just one of their first 11 games – bizarrely against the 17th placed Tigers – and their percentage of 150. 1% is close to 30% better than any other team in the league. Their midfield has been brilliant, with the diverse and very well-balanced trio of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden each establishing themselves as among the best players in the league while boasting vastly different strengths. That will likely prove to be a huge advantage against the Cats, who despite having a really good start to the season, don’t have near the fire power in the engine room of their opposition. They’ve been struggling for some time now, too, after winning each of their first seven games; they subsequently lost four on the trot, and while they got back on the winners’ list last Saturday night, they were handed a legitimate scare at the Cattery by the undermanned Tigers. Though they ended up with the four points, that kind of performance will not get them too far at the SCG against the Swans. They are capable of playing a lot better than that and if they do bring their best they could make this a cracking contest, but it is impossible to tip against the Swans at the moment, particularly on their home turf. Following a week off, the best team in the league can continue to solidify their spot atop the AFL ladder with a solid win against another potential Premiership contender. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.33
	Swans -19.5	$1.91
	Swans 25+	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: T. McCartin, L. Melican, D. Rampe - C HB: O. Florent, N. Blakey, H. Cunningham C: E. Gulden, Ch. Warner, J. Lloyd HF: T. Adams, L. McDonald, H. McLean F: W. Hayward, J. Amartey, T. Papley FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, J. McInerney, J. Jordon, S. Wicks, B. Campbell EMG: A. Sheldrick, C. Mitchell, J. Hamling

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: T. Stewart - C, M. Holmes, Z. Guthrie C: O. Dempsey, T. Bruhn, J. Bowes HF: T. Stengle, B. Close, G. Miers F: J. Cameron, T. Hawkins, O. Henry FOLL: T. Conway, P. Dangerfield, M. Duncan I/C: T. Atkins, J. Clark, M. Blicavs, C. Guthrie, Z. Tuohy EMG: B. Parfitt, C. O’Sullivan, S. Mannagh 

The high quality games continue on Sunday night, with a blockbuster clash between two of the league’s original rivals, both of whom happen to be sitting pretty inside the top five. The Bombers, to the surprise of everyone, are sitting in second place at the halfway point of the season, and their loss last Sunday to the Suns was just their third of the year. But their position high up on the ladder is a perilous one; their percentage of 102. 8% is worse than every other side in the top eight and five teams outside of it, and with just a game and a half separating them from each of the Magpies, Demons and Bulldogs – who currently occupy positions 9-11 – Essendon could quickly find themselves tumbling down the ladder with a couple of losses. They certainly appear to have improved this year, but they are not the second best team in the competition and there are a host of teams – their opposition this week included – sitting below them ready to fly right past them in the second half of the season. Carlton, for their part, have been really good over the past couple of weeks, first knocking off the Suns relatively comfortably and then last week coming away from Adelaide with a six-goal win against the Power. Their midfield is beginning to fire on all cylinders while their key forward pairing of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay is proving every bit as potent in reality as it is on paper, and Jacob Weitering continues to prove himself as one of the premiere defenders in the competition. An aside for this game is that it will likely prove the scene of the much-awaited McKay vs McKay matchup, with Harry and Ben set to appear on the same field together for the first time and likely match up one another. That won’t just be an interesting matchup for the confusion it will cause in the commentary box, either; if it does materialise it will be a key one in the scope of the game, given how good McKay has been this year. But him aside, the Blues have plenty of other weapons, too. The Bombers have impressed this year and have put themselves in a great position to play finals courtesy of their strong start to the year, but the Blues are a genuine heavyweight and should be right in the mix come the pointy end of the season. In front of a pulsing MCG crowd on Saturday night, they can break away in the second half after a tight opening to this game and record a solid win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.52
	Blues -10.5	$1.91
	Blues 25+	$2.55

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde  HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath  C: D. Heppell, S. Durham, J. Kelly HF: J. Gresham, H. Jones, A. Perkins F: J. Stringer, P. Wright, K. Langford FOLL: T. Goldstein, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: E. Tsatas, N. Cox, N. Hind, J. Menzie EMG: N. Bryan, A. Davey Jr, A. Roberts 

Carlton Blues: B: A. Saad, J. Weitering, Z. Williams HB: B. Kemp, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, E. Hollands HF: L. Fogarty, H. McKay, M. Owies F: G. Hewett, C. Curnow, M. Kennedy FOLL: T. De Koning, S. Walsh, A. Cincotta I/C: L. Cowan, J. Carroll, B. Acres, J. Boyd, O. Fantasia EMG: C. Durdin, C. Marchbank, Le. Young

The annual King’s Birthday Clash captures the attention of the footballing world each year both for what happens on the field and what happens off it, with the Big Freeze preceding it every year and seeing numerous celebrities slide into a big old tub of ice to raise funds for motor neurone disease research. As always that will kick off proceedings on Monday, but it’s far from the only reason to tune in. Neither the Magpies or the Demons have had exactly the start to the season that they would have liked and for two teams with Premiership aspirations such as they have, to find themselves outside the top eight at this stage of the season is not what they would have expected. But all is not lost for these two teams. With the ladder as tight as it is, they could easily find themselves close to or even in the top four within a couple of weeks, and with each of them likely to be jostling for those spots later in the year this is a proverbial eight-point game, even this far out from the end of the season. Both teams are coming off losses last weekend, though the Magpies’ was far more understandable than that of the Dees. Collingwood, with a raft of important players missing through injury, were ultimately unable to keep pace with the in-form Bulldogs, but they were relatively gallant in going down by two goals for their first loss since Round 3. It was a little harder to find positives in the Demons’ loss. After bouncing back from two consecutive defeats with a solid win over the Saints, they headed up to TIO Stadium for a clash with the Dockers, but appeared to leave their competitive juices back in Melbourne. As good as Fremantle was, the Dees were utterly listless, failing to give a yelp as they were pumped by 92 points in what was the biggest loss during Simon Goodwin’s tenure as head coach. Don’t expect them to put in a performance like that twice in a row, particularly on such a big stage. They are well and truly on notice after their past month and particularly that loss, but this is a good opportunity to bounce back against a fellow Premiership aspirant, but one which is currently up against it with injuries. This should be a highly contested, physical game which could easily go down to the wire, but the Demons can bounce back from a disastrous performance with a tight win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$1.90
	Demons 1-24	$3.60
	Demons 1-39	$2.40

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, C. Dean HB: I. Quaynor, J. Noble, O. Markov C: J. Bytel, A. Johnson, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, N. Daicos, J. Howe F: B. McCreery, P. Lipinski, B. Frampton FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, L. Schultz I/C: Macrae, S. Sidebottom, L. Sullivan, H. Harrison, W. Parker EMG: N. Kreuger, E. Allan, T. Jiath

Melbourne Demons: B: J. Bowey, S. May, T. Rivers HB: C. Salem, A. Tomlinson, T. McDonald C:  E. Langdon, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF: S. McAdam, B. Fritsch, K. Chandler F: K. Pickett, J. van Rooyen, A. Neal-Bullen FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, C. Petracca I/C: J. McVee, B. Laurie, T. Sparrow, B. Howes, T. Woewodin EMG: J. Billings, T. Fullarton, B. Brown

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