AFL 2023 Round 15 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 15
AFL 2023 Round 15

Round 15 will be the last of the AFL’s bye rounds, with just six games set to take place over four days. Within the shortened round, however, there is plenty to get excited about. It begins with a blockbuster clash between the Cats and the Demons on Thursday night, before the Saints and Lions lock horns on Friday night. The Dockers take on the Bombers in another intriguing game on Saturday night, before Sunday will see the Magpies take on the Crows after a week off. Check out our detailed previews of each game set to take place across Round 15 below.

Round 15 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Cats vs DemonsThursday June 22 at 7.20pm$2.00$1.80
Saints vs LionsFriday June 23 at 7.50pm$2.10$1.74
Swans vs EaglesSaturday June 24 at 4.35pm$1.05$10.00
Dockers vs EaglesSaturday June 24 at 7.25pm$1.74$2.10
Magpies vs CrowsSunday June 25 at 1.10pm$1.34$3.30
Suns vs HawksSunday June 25 at 4.40pm$1.28$3.70

Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons

What a way to start Round 15 this is. The Cats are fresh off a loss to the impressive Power, marking their fourth in five games and resigning them to the bottom half of the ladder well over the halfway into the season. It’s a long way from where the reigning Premiers would like or have expected to be at this point, but even in their current position it’s a brave person who would count them out of the Premiership race. They do, however, need to get a wriggle on, and Melbourne won’t make it easy for them to get the win they so desperately require. The Dees are coming off a bye following an impressive King’s Birthday victory over the Magpies, a win which took their record to 9-4. They’re sitting pretty in third place without having really fully hit their strides for much of the season, and the performance against the nominal Premiership favourites in Collingwood showed what they are capable of. Interesting, however, will be how they respond to the bye. Thus far this season teams coming off a week off haven’t performed particularly well, though given that the Cats will be coming off an interstate game maybe that difference will be nullified. This is not an easy one to tip. The Cats really, really need a win and are certainly capable of getting it done, but Melbourne was really impressive last time out. In a game that could go down to the wire, the fact that this is being played at GMHBA Stadium might prove to be the difference.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats to win$2.00
Either team by 15 points or less$2.50
Cats +2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, M. Duncan HB: M.O’Connor, T.Stewart, J.Henry C: Z. Tuohy, M.Blicavs, I.Smith HF: O.Henry, G.Rohan, T.Stengle F: T.Hawkins, J.Cameron, G.Miers FOLL: J.Ceglar, M. Holmes, T.Atkins I/C: J.Bews, J.Kolodjashnij, M. Knevitt, B.Close

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: Rivers, May, Lever HB: Hibberd, Tomlinson, Smith C: Hunter, Viney, Sparrow HF: Spargo, Fritsch, Neal-Bullen F: Van Rooyen, Grundy, Chandler FOLL: Gawn, Petracca, Pickett I/C: Salem, Brayshaw, Langdon, McVee

St. Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions

Round 15 continues on Friday night with another intriguing game, this one between the fifth placed Saints and the fourth placed Lions at Marvel Stadium. Each of them clearly has top four aspirations, but with a lot of good teams breathing down their necks neither is entirely safe in the top eight either. The Saints, in particular, look vulnerable, having faltered significantly after an excellent start to the season under Ross Lyon. They were defensively as good as anyone early on, but that identity has well and truly deserted them for a number of weeks now, a trend which continued last weekend. They gave up 90 points to the Tigers, but it could easily have been more; Richmond had 68 on the board by half-time when the rain started to pile down, slowing the scoring significantly. That took their record to 8-5, but realistically they haven’t exactly been lighting it up for a while now and Saints fans will no doubt be feeling an eerie sense of déjà vu after a scintillating start to last season ended with them missing the finals. They’re still lodged fairly comfortably in the eight for now, but a loss to the Lions this weekend would likely have them right on the edge. Going in the Saints’ favour, however, is the fact that Brisbane has been a shadow of their best selves away from home, and last time they were in Melbourne they went down by four goals to the Hawks. A win for them could give them a buffer of two games in the top four, so they’ll be desperate to break the Melbourne hoodoo, particularly given a loss would likely have them potentially as low as sixth. There is plenty on the line in this game, and with the Saints able to largely remain competitive even with results not going their way as they were earlier in the season, this should be a relatively close game. For all their travelling troubles, however, the Lions have a lot more talent all across the park, and can get the job done in a good game.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions to win$1.74
Lions 1-39$2.50
Lions -3.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

St. KildaSt. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: J.Webster, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, B.Crouch, B.Hill HF: M.Phillipou, J.Higgins, M.Owens F: A.Caminiti, M.King, J.Gresham FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele, M.Windhager I/C: S.Ross, C. Sharman, L.Stocker, D.Butler

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, R.Lester, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, H.Andrews, K.Coleman C: J.Berry, Z.Bailey, C.Rayner HF: C.Cameron, D.Fort, W.Ashcroft F: L.McCarthy, J.Daniher, E.Hipwood FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale  I/C: K.Lohmann, D.Robertson, J.Fletcher, D.Wilmot

Sydney Swans vs West Coast Eagles

The Swans desperately, desperately need a win. Their attempts to recreate their Grand Final appearance from last year is in tatters after eight losses from their last 11 games, a run of results which sees them sitting ahead of only the Hawks, Kangaroos and Eagles. Finals are rapidly disappearing out of reach, let alone another deep run into September, but fortunately for them they get the chance to record one of the easiest AFL wins in living memory against the Eagles this weekend. West Coast enjoyed the solace of a bye last weekend, which is just about the only thing able to keep them from being belted at the minute. With a few senior players coming back they looked a little more competitive against first the Bombers then the Magpies, but they promptly went and lost by 122 points to the Crows to sink their percentage even further. It’s now 51.4% to go with their 1-12 record in what is fast becoming an even worse season than last year, which already was one of the biggest disasters in the club’s history. They simply can’t compete at AFL at the minute, with the bulk of their players either not ready or not capable of playing at the level, reaching the twilight of their careers, or, in the case of many, out with a long-term injury. As poor as Sydney have been of late, this looks like a very one-sided matchup – an indication of just how bad the Eagles are right now. This is a good opportunity for the Swans to not just get back on the winners’ list, but also boost their percentage, and potentially recapture the confidence which they’re clearly so desperately lacking.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Swans 40+$1.55
Swans 25+$1.25
Swans -49.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: A.Francis, L.Melican, H.Cunningham HB: D.Rampe, J.Lloyd, O.Florent C: B.Campbell, J.Rowbottom, J.McInerney HF: W.Hayward, H.McLean, E.Gulden F: T.Papley, J.Amartey, L. Franklin FOLL: T.Hickey, L.Parker, Ch.Warner I/C: N.Blakey, A.Sheldrick, R.Fox, I. Heeney

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: T. Barass, M. McGovern, A.Witherden HB: S. Hurn, J.Waterman, J.Hunt C: L. Duggan, T.Kelly, A.Gaff HF: D.Sheed, J.Darling, J.Petruccelle F: R.Maric, O.Allen, N.Long FOLL: B.Williams, E.Yeo, L.Shuey  I/C: R.Ginbey, S.Petrevski-Seton, L. Edwards, L. Foley

  • The Cats have won ten of their last 12 against the Demons at GMHBA Stadium harking back to 2008.
  • The Eagles haven’t played a game in which they haven’t been beaten by 40 points or more since Round 2.
  • The Magpies have won their past three home games by an average of just under 40 points, while the Crows have won just one of three games in Melbourne this year – and that was against Hawthorn by three points.

Multi of the Week

Cats to win$2.00
Swans by 40+$1.55
Magpies -18.5$1.90
Bet $10 for $58.90 with PlayUp

Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers

This season just isn’t going to plan for the Dockers. After a dreadful start they hit some excellent form to work their way to a 6-5 record, but their winning streak was halted by the Tigers a fortnight ago and they responded by failing to give a whimper against the Giants last weekend. That was probably their worst performance of a season littered with disappointing efforts, booting just five goals and going down by 70 points to a side which will likely not play finals this year. Whether they will play finals or not is anybody’s guess – at their best they closely resemble the side which won 15 games last year, but they can’t seem to produce that with any sort of regularity. They’ve won just one of their last 17 quarters, which is a clear problem to address and puts them on the back foot virtually every week. The Bombers, meanwhile, are humming along nicely. They enjoyed a well-deserved week off last weekend after four consecutive wins which took them to 8-5 and nestled nicely inside the top eight in Brad Scott’s first year in charge. Peter Wright’s five-goal return gave them far more potency up forward, and stopping him will be key to the Dockers’ hopes. This is a really intriguing matchup which both sides could easily win, but on their home deck and desperately needing a response after last week’s pitiful performance, Freo can bounce back and secure a hard-fought win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dockers to win$1.74
Dockers 1-39$2.40
Dockers -3.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce, H.Young HB: B.Walker, L.Ryan, J.Clark C: L.Henry, C.Serong, N.O’Driscoll HF: J.Treacy, L. Jackson, M.Walters F: S.Switkowski, J.Amiss, L.Schultz FOLL: S. Darcy, A.Brayshaw, J.O’Meara I/C: M.Frederick, N.Fyfe, B. Banfield, E.Hughes

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: A.McGrath, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Laverde HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, K.Langford C: N.Martin, Z.Merrett, D.Heppell HF: S.Durham, S.Weideman, A.Perkins F: M.Guelfi, P.Wright, J.Stringer FOLL: S.Draper, B.Hobbs, D. Parish I/C: W.Snelling, N.Hind, J. Caldwell, J.Menzie

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows

Over the past year and a half the Magpies have demonstrated an extraordinary ability to pluck victory from the jaws of defeat, though for once they failed to do so in their most recent game, a four-point King’s Birthday loss to the Demons. Even then, however, they went mighty close. After being thoroughly outplayed all game they were just under three goals down with a minute to go; with 30 seconds to go they were within a kick. At long last, however, the siren sounded before they were able to steal back the lead, something they did when they last played Adelaide earlier this year. In that game the Crows led throughout in a game which really secured the fact that they are legitimate finals contenders, but a blistering final term from the Magpies saw them steal a one-point win. This time around, things will be a little harder for the Crows in front of a raucous Magpies crowd at the MCG. The Crows’ most recent game, a 122-point win over the hapless Eagles, gave them a much-needed percentage boost and maintained their spot in the top eight, but only just. There are no less than five teams within a game, and with the bottom spots in the eight set to come down to the wire every game is of vital importance. They’ll no doubt be fully aware of that, but they can know how much they need the win as much as they want. Translating that into a win against the Magpies, however, might be a little bit harder.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.34
Magpies 25+$2.25
Magpies -18.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: Isaac Quaynor, Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard HB: Billy Frampton, Nathan Murphy, Scott Pendlebury C: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos HF: Ash Johnson, Brody Mihocek, Patrick Lipinski F: Jack Ginnivan, Darcy Cameron, Bobby Hill FOLL: Mason Cox, Nick Daicos, Tom Mitchell I/C: John Noble, Taylor Adams, D. McStay, Harvey Harrison

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, J.Butts, N.Murray HB: M.Michalanney, J.Worrell, W.Milera C: C.Jones, J.Dawson, L.Sholl HF: J.Rachele, D.Fogarty, L.Pedlar F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, R.Sloane I/C: R.Thilthorpe, J.Soligo, B.Keays, M.Hinge

Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks

A fascinating round of footy wraps up with another intriguing game, with the Suns badly needing to bounce back to the winners’ list against the Hawks after a disastrous display against the Blues last weekend. As Stewart Dew rightly pointed out during the week, the Suns’ current team has little to do with the Suns team of ten or even five years ago, but there’s no denying the club’s history; they’ve never made the finals, and every time they’ve looked like getting close they’ve fallen off a cliff in the back half of the season. This year has started similarly to many others, but it does look like a different incarnation of the Suns. Performances like last week, however, invariably raise a lot of question marks. They conceded nine goals in the second quarter to a Blues team which has rarely kicked that many in a whole game for two months, and the lack of intensity compared to previous weeks was notable. If that’s a once-off, we’ll forget about it in a few weeks, but if they suffer a loss to the Hawks this weekend the pressure will quickly mount on this young club’s proverbial shoulders. And the Hawks, though widely regarded as a member of the clear worst three teams in the league, are proving to be comfortably the best of that trio. Their bye last week followed a terrific victory over the Lions and they’ve now won three of their last four after winning just one of their first nine. They’re in some pretty decent form, so the Suns certainly can’t expect this to be a walk in the park. Teams have, however, typically struggled after byes this year, and with the Suns badly needing a response, they can notch up their seventh win of the season reasonably comfortably.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Suns 1-39$2.15
Suns/Suns half-time/full-time double$1.50
Suns to win$1.28

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, J.Jeffrey HB: B.Long, D.Macpherson, W.Powell C: B.Fiorini, D.Swallow, B.Ainsworth HF: M.Rosas, N.Holman, J.Lukosius F: T.Berry, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: M.Andrew, J. Jeffreys, A.Davies, B.Humphrey

Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawks: B: B.Hardwick, J.Blanck, J.Impey HB: C. Nash, J.Scrimshaw, L.Bramble C: K.Amon, J.Worpel, J.Weddle HF: S.Butler, J.Koschitzke, D.Moore F: L.Breust, M.Lewis, C.Macdonald FOLL: N.Reeves, W.Day, J.Newcombe I/C: S.Mitchell, C. Mackenzie, T.Brockman, L.Meek

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