AFL 2024 Round 15 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

At the end of Round 14, all six favourites had ended up victorious, but there were plenty of surprises in the way those games play out.  The biggest of them all was the Kangaroos’ heartbreaking defeat to the Magpies, while the Bulldogs pumped a Dockers team who had just pumped the Demons, and the Saints kicked 100 points for the first time this year against a team that isn’t North Melbourne and still lost.  A number of those teams will get a rest this weekend, leaving just six games to take place over the course of Round 15.  But what is lacking in quantity is more than made up for in quality; Friday night will see the Blues take on the Cats while the Lions host the Power on Saturday, while the second Battle of the Bridge might be the best of them all as the Giants welcome their cross-town rivals and the best team in the league in the Swans to ENGIE Stadium.  Below, we have previewed all six games set to take place across Round 15.  

Round 15 starts off with a huge game between the Blues and the Cats in front of what will no doubt be a big crowd at the MCG on Friday night.  Just a game separates these two Premiership aspirants on the ladder, but while Carlton have been one of the in-form teams in the league for some time now and find themselves in second place as a result, Geelong is floundering after a really strong start to the season.  They have won just one of their past six games and that came against Richmond, though admittedly it has been a very difficult run of games.  In their latest, they looked set to hand the Swans just their second defeat of the year – and up in Sydney no less – before an onslaught from the home side saw them accelerate away to a five-goal lead.  That loss meant that the Cats – after winning their first seven games of the year – fell to 8-5, and while they are just a game behind the Blues in second they are also only a game clear of the Hawks way back in 12th.  Carlton, meanwhile, have won their last three games in a row, each of them in impressive fashion against decent teams.  In that period they have knocked off the Suns, Power and Bombers by around five goals, although that Bombers win – their most recent game – wasn’t as emphatic as the scoreboard looked and had Essendon been able to capitalise on their opportunities it could very easily have been a different result.  Still, winning form is good form and the Blues certainly have that.  They have established themselves as potentially the best team in the league behind the Swans, but are part of a group of three or four looking to establish themselves as that team.  The Cats have certainly been included within that group for much of this year, but they have fallen away and badly need a big scalp to get back into it.  Carlton would be exactly that, but while they should be able to put themselves right in this game, the Blues have been the better team over the past few weeks and can eke out an important win in a tight contest.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.58
	Blues 1-39	$2.30
	Blues 1-24	$3.30

Predicted Squads

Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, L. Cowan HB: A. Saad, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: Z. Williams, C. Curnow, A. Cincotta F: E. Hollands, H. McKay, M. Owies FOLL: T. De Koning, S. Walsh, M. Kennedy I/C: J.  Binns, C. Durdin, L. Fogarty, J. Boyd, G. Hewett EMG: J. Motlop, C. Marchbank, O.  Fantasia 

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: M. Duncan, T. Stewart - C, O. Mullin C: M. Blicavs, M. Holmes, J. Bowes HF: B. Close, J. Cameron, G. Miers F: T. Stengle, T. Hawkins, S. Neale FOLL: R. Stanley, P.  Dangerfield, T. Bruhn I/C: Z. Guthrie, T.  Atkins, O.  Henry, Z.  Tuohy, O. Dempsey EMG: C. O’Sullivan, G.  Rohan, S. Mannagh

A little over halfway into the season, both of these teams are in a really interesting position, each hoping to establish themselves not just as finalists but as teams capable of causing damage in September, but equally with a very realistic possibility of missing finals.  The Power have had an average couple of weeks, failing miserably in their attempt to disprove the narrative that they are not good enough to compete with the best by losing comfortably to the Blues and Giants in successive weeks.  They had won three in a row before that, but one came against the Kangaroos and the other when they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Hawks.  Aside from their first half against Geelong prior to that, they haven’t played great footy for six weeks, and are now precariously placed in seventh with just a game separating them from both second and 12th.  The Lions, meanwhile, are another half a game back in 13th, but their percentage of 115. 8% is the third best in the league and they beginning to find some of their best form of the year.  After beating the Bulldogs in really impressive fashion down in Melbourne two weeks ago, they looked far too good for the Saints for most of last Friday night’s game, only to let the visitors back into things when they let their foot off the gas in the last quarter.  But disappointing though that was, they were able to lift when they needed to and extended the margin back out to 20 points by game’s end to even their season ledger at 6-1-6.  They would not have been expecting to be sitting in 13th at this point in the year, but they are just a game out of the top eight and only two out of the top four and still have the capacity to climb rapidly up the ladder and cause some damage in the finals.  A win in this game, particularly given that the Power are one of the teams that they are trying to chase down, would be a great way to start that ascent.  Were this in Brisbane the Lions would look hard to beat, and while it is likely to be a hell of a lot closer given it’s at Adelaide Oval, the Power have not been playing great footy of late and may well find themselves outside of the eight by the end of the round courtesy of a third consecutive defeat.   

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.95
	Lions 1-39	$2.55
	Lions 1-24	$3.50

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: K. Farrell, E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher HB: J. Burgoyne, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, C. Rozee - C, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, M. Bergman F: Z. Butters, O. Lord, M. Georgiades FOLL: J.  Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, J. McEntee I/C: O. Wines, D. Williams, W.  Rioli, J. Mead, Q. Narkle EMG: D. Visentini, F.  Evans, La. Jones

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: K. Lohmann, J. Daniher, Z. Bailey FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: C. Ah Chee, L. Morris, C. McKenna, B. Reville, N. Answerth EMG: D. Robertson, D. Fort, D. Joyce

The Battle of the Bridge, after being laughed at by the AFL world for the first few years of the Giants’ existence, is now the highest quality derby in the league, with both Sydney-based teams boasting Premiership aspirations in 2024.  They have both been Premiership favourites at various points so far this season, but it’s the Swans who have well and truly taken that mantle a little over halfway in.  They are clearly the best team in the league, having lost just a solitary game – against the Tigers, no less – and their percentage of 149. 8% is more than 30% better than any other team.  Their midfield/wing trio of Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner is as electric a trio as there is in the AFL and they still have Callum Mills and Luke Parker to rejoin the fray, and while their lack of a key forward has been the biggest doubt surrounding them all year, Joel Amartey did a pretty good job of silencing those doubters by booting a lazy nine goals last week.  They are certainly not unbeatable, but there isn’t a game that they wouldn’t head into as favourites at the moment, and this is no different.  The Giants, however, are good enough to prove a worthy challenger.  Early in the year they were as good as anyone before going through a down patch in May which was, incidentally, kickstarted by a five-goal loss to the Swans.  But that was a high quality game for most of the four quarters before Sydney kicked away late, and the Giants, importantly, have begun to recapture a bit of form of late.  They have won two of their last three games, those wins coming against the Cats and Power, while their loss came by just six points to a Hawks team which is quickly establishing itself as a legitimate finals contender.  As one of five teams with eight wins they are locked in a tight battle for top four spots, and a win against the Swans would not only likely see them jump inside that top four, but would also reaffirm their legitimacy as a Premiership contender.  With some good form behind them they can give this a serious crack, but in what should be an extremely entertaining, contested game, the Swans can take their record to 13-1 with another win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.50
	Swans 1-39	$2.30
	Swans 1-24	$3.20

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, S. Taylor, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, N. Haynes C: R. Angwin, T. Green, J. Kelly HF: B. Daniels, J. Riccardi, T. Bedford F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, C. Brown FOLL: K. Briggs, F. Callaghan, C. Ward I/C: L. Aleer, X. O’Halloran, H. Thomas, A. Cadman, L.  Ash EMG: J. Peatling, J. Wehr, M. Gruzewski

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe - C, T. McCartin, L. Melican HB: O. Florent, H. Cunningham, N. Blakey C: J. Lloyd, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: J. McInerney, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, J. Jordon, H. McLean, S. Wicks, B. Campbell EMG: C. Cleary, R. Fox, P. Ladhams

• The Eagles haven’t got within six goals of any opponent away from home so far this year.  
• The Lions have won six of their past seven games against the Power.  
• Though North Melbourne have been good the past two weeks, they have still played in just three games all season long that they have not lost by more than six goals.

Multi of the Week

This is the first game of the round that doesn’t look particularly interesting, though given how these two teams have been playing over the past couple of weeks perhaps it could be closer than many anticipate.  The Demons have been pretty dreadful of late, losing four of their past five including their last two by a combined margin of 130 points.  Making matters worse, they lost Christian Petracca for the season in their most recent game against the Magpies, meaning the midfield which was previously so dominant is now looking increasingly shaky.  That run of losses has seen them fall to 11th spot, but with a big win this weekend they will almost certainly jump into the eight and potentially as high as sixth.  They should be able to manage that, but the Kangaroos have hit a little purple patch over the past fortnight.  After finally securing their first win of the season against the Eagles in Perth a couple of weeks ago, they enjoyed an extraordinary first half or so against the Magpies, opening up a 54-point lead at one point.  But impressive as they were in developing that lead, they were equally disappointing in conceding it, ultimately losing by one-point in controversial fashion after a couple of non-calls – most notably a failure for the umpires to call a 50-metre penalty which was clearly there, despite the AFL’s insistence that it was a justified non-call.  Heartbreaking though that was, results are far from everything for the Kangaroos at the moment, and more important is the fact that they are beginning to show some reasons for long-suffering Roos’ fans to have at least a little optimism about the future.  If they can again be competitive against a team that has been a perennial top four finisher in recent years, it would only further solidify the improvement that they have shown over the past couple of weeks.  But as good as they have been in that time, they are still a very young team which will no doubt be in for plenty more big losses over the rest of the year.  And as poor as Melbourne has been and as much as they will miss Petracca, they still have plenty of weapons all across the field, and should be able to return to their winning ways in convincing fashion with an important big win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$1.18
	Demons -32.5	$1.91
	Demons 40+	$2.20

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: J.  Bowey, S.  May, T.  Rivers HB: C.  Salem, T.  McDonald, J.  McVee C: E.  Langdon, C.  Oliver, C.  Windsor HF: K.  Pickett, B.  Fritsch, T.  Fullarton F: K.  Chandler, J.  van Rooyen, A.  Neal-Bullen FOLL: M.  Gawn, J.  Viney, T.  Sparrow I/C: J.  Billings, B.  Laurie, B.  Howes, K.  Tholstrup, D.  Turner EMG: K. Brown, T.  Woewodin, B. Brown

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, L.  McDonald - C HB: Z. Fisher, H. Sheezel, C.  McKercher C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF: T. Powell, T. Pink, C. Taylor F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J.  Simpkin I/C: L. Shiels, T. Pink, W.  Phillips, E. Ford, J. Stephenson EMG: R. Harderman, C. Lazzaro, Z.  Duursma

As might have been predicted, the Bombers have hit a little bit of a roadblock over the past fortnight and have lost their grip on the top two spot they held a couple of weeks ago, but they get an ideal opportunity to bounce back against the Eagles in Melbourne this Sunday.  After losing just two of their first 11 games the Dons have dropped two on the trot, though they haven’t exactly fallen to pieces in that time.  Their first loss was by just 11 points to the Suns, and while a 26-point loss to the Blues in their last game before their bye was a disappointing result, they were actually the better team in virtually every facet except for the scoreboard.  Still, if they want to solidify their spot in the eight and potentially remain in the hunt for the top four, they need to quickly get back on the winners’ list, and they should be able to just that this weekend.  They have shown a huge amount of improvement in a lot of games this year, but those games have been scattered around a little and none of those impressive performances have been outside of Optus Stadium.  And over the past few weeks, they have begun to struggle once again.  In fairness their last two losses have both been tight, but they came against North Melbourne and St.  Kilda while the week prior to that they went down by 99 points to the Crows.  They have shown an ability to be dangerous in Perth on their day, but that has not yet translated to their games away from home, where they have typically played a lot like the team that they have been over the past couple of years.  In fact, their five away games this year they have lost by 99, 66, 37, 76 and 50 points for an average losing margin of 65. 6 points, which clearly does not bode particularly well for this weekend.  This looks like a great opportunity for the Bombers to get back on the winners’ list and give their relatively meagre percentage a hefty boost with a big win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bombers to win	$1.14
	Bombers -33.5	$1.91
	Bombers 40+	$2.05

Predicted Squads

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: M.  Redman, J. Kelly, A. McGrath C: D. Heppell, S. Durham, A. Perkins HF: M. Guelfi, J. Gresham, H. Jones F: J. Stringer, P. Wright, K. Langford FOLL: T. Goldstein, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: E. Tsatas, W. Setterfield, N. Cox, N. Hind, N.  Martin EMG: D. Shiel, N. Bryan, J.  Menzie

West Coast Eagles: B: B. Hough, T. Barrass, A. Witherden HB: T. Cole, J. McGovern, L. Duggan - C C: C. Chesser, D. Sheed, A. Gaff HF: J. Petruccelle, J. Waterman, J. Cripps F: L. Ryan, J. Darling, O.  Allen FOLL: M. Flynn, E. Yeo, R. Ginbey I/C: J. Jones, J.  Hunt, H. Edwards, J. Hutchinson, J. Culley EMG: Z. Trew, J. Rotham, B.  Williams

The Dockers and the Suns find themselves in similar positions a little over halfway into the season, and each will be eager to bounce back after poor last games.  The Dockers, after having hardly put in a bad performance all year, were uncharacteristically disappointing against the Bulldogs.  The second stingiest team in the league in terms of points against, they gave up 149 to the Dogs in what turned out to be a 67-point drubbing which was probably made even more disappointing by the fact that it came the first game they played after beating the Demons by 92 points.  They certainly are not the first team in history to come out of the bye looking lethargic though, and if the Suns follow suit then Fremantle should have no troubles rejoining the winners’ circle.  Gold Coast had the week off to think about a game they would no doubt much rather forget the week prior when they went down 51-48 to the Saints.  Having beaten both the Bombers and the Cats in the three weeks prior that was a really disappointing result given that they had an opportunity to jump inside the top eight with another win.  Though the meagre 48 points that they managed in that game was particularly disappointing, it wasn’t entirely an anomaly – they have now kicked 57 points or less in three of their past seven games, and against the Dockers it would be no surprise to see them struggle to put a big score on the board once again.  Don’t expect this to be a high scoring game; the Dockers will look to lock the game down while the Suns will have no qualms playing a contested style of game, and with potential showers forecast the visitors may again be looking at booting under ten goals.  The home team won’t likely kick all that many more, but they should be able to do enough to get themselves back on the winners’ list with an important win. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$1.42
	Dockers 1-39	$2.15
	Under 157.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers: B: B. Walker, A. Pearce - C, H.  Chapman HB: J. Aish, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, N. Fyfe, H. Young HF: B.  Banfield, S. Switkowski, M. Frederick F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, L. Jackson FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw I/C: S. Sturt, J.  Draper, J. O’Meara, K. Worner, M. Johnson, EMG: P. Voss, N. Erasmus, W.  Brodie

Gold Coast Suns: B: C. Ballard, S. Collins, B. Uwland, HB: S. Flanders, M. Andrew, A. Sexton C: B. Fiorini, T. Miller - C, S. Clohesy HF: B. Ainsworth, L.  Casboult, J. Lukosius F: B. Long, B. King, B. Humphrey FOLL: J.  Witts, N. Anderson, M. Rowell I/C: N. Holman, T. Berry, D. Swallow, W. Graham, J. Jeffrey EMG: A. Davies, S. Lemmens, D. Macpherson

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