AFL 2024 Round 16 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

The bye rounds are finally over and we have a full slate of games set for this weekend in the AFL, kicking off with an intriguing clash between two Premiership aspirants who are both sitting outside the top eight in the Lions and the Demons. There are a raft of other intriguing matchups to follow over the course of the weekend, too, with the Suns hosting the Dockers on Saturday afternoon, the Suns hosting the Magpies on the Gold Coast immediately after, before the Cats and Bombers go head to head that night at the MCG. Below, we have previewed all nine games set to take place in Round 16 of the 2024 AFL season.  

Both the Lions and the Demons have harboured high hopes throughout this season, though well over halfway into the season they both find themselves outside the eight. But while the Demons are flailing in a big way and are quickly losing credibility in the Premiership race, the Lions are well and truly on the way up. Last year’s Grand Finalists have now won three consecutive games, and could hardly have been more convincing last weekend when they beat the Power in Adelaide by 79 points. They have now lost just one game in two months, and though they sit in tenth spot, the fact that they have the second best percentage in the league is reflective of what they are truly capable of.  
 
The Demons, meanwhile, avoided losing their fifth game in six weeks on Saturday afternoon against the Kangaroos, but could hardly have been less convincing in doing so. Admittedly North Melbourne has been impressive for the past three weeks now, but they remain the worst team in the league and still managed to keep the Demons scoreless in the final quarter, storming home and ultimately falling just three points short of what would have been a rousing victory for them, and a disaster for Melbourne. But despite the win, the game still did little to put an end to the question marks surrounding the 2021 Premiers. In the last three weeks, they have now beaten North by just three points, lost to the Magpies by 38 points and lost to the Dockers by 92 points. With no Christian Petracca for the rest of the year, Clayton Oliver a shadow of his former self and Jake Lever having missed a bunch of games in a row, their path to contention this year is looking increasingly flimsy. They may get Lever back this weekend, but even if they do, based on how both of these teams have been playing of late it’s impossible to go past the Lions – and potentially comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.17
	Lions 1-39	$2.25
	Demons +14.5 first half	$1.87

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: C. McKenna, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich C: B. Reville, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: C. Ah Chee, J. Daniher, L. Morris FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: K. Lohmann, J. Fletcher, Z. Bailey, S. Brain, D. Wilmot EMG: J. Lyons, D. Fort, D. Joyce

Melbourne Demons: B: B. Howes, S. May, T. Rivers HB: C. Salem, A. Tomlinson, J. McVee C: A. Neal-Bullen, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF: K. Chandler, H. Petty, J. van Rooyen F: K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, E. Langdon FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, T. Sparrow I/C: J. Lever, T. McDonald, K. Tholstrup, K. Brown, D. Turner EMG: B. Laurie, T. Fullarton, T. Woewodin

At long, long last, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the Kangaroos. Following another dreadful first three months of the season, they have turned things around over the past three weeks with consecutive impressive performances. Though only one of those has yielded a win – that coming against the Eagles three weeks ago – their two performances since have been arguably more impressive, losing to the Magpies and Demons by a combined total of just four points. In both of those games they have had periods of dominance and periods of the exact opposite, which is to be expected for a team in their position, and the fact that they have finally shown an ability to play at a decent level at all is a major improvement on what they have shown for the past few years. They will still likely have plenty of down games over the remainder of the year, but if they play the way they have the last few weeks they will make the Bulldogs work for their spoils in this game.  
 
It's hard not to remain sceptical of the Doggies given how long they have been inconsistent for, but they have put together a really strong six-week patch of form. Their only down performance in that stretch came when they lost by seven goals to the Lions, but they bounced back with a big 67-point win over the Dockers the next week before enjoying the bye last weekend. If they play the way they have for most of the past month and a half they should win this comfortably, despite the Kangaroos’ good recent form, but if they are a little slow out of the blocks after the bye then North Melbourne has shown they are capable of taking advantage. Hopefully the Kangas can keep their strong form going and make this game interesting, but the Bulldogs really should be too good.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Kangaroos +37.5	$1.90
	Bulldogs 1-39	$2.00
	Bulldogs 1-24	$4.00

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, T. Pink HB: J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C: D. Stephens, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF: T. Powell, B. Teakle, E. Ford F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpkin - C I/C: C. Taylor, D. Tucker, L. Shiels, Z. Fisher, C. McKercher EMG: Z. Duursma, R. Hardeman, C. Harvey

Western Bulldogs: B: L. Bramble, L. Jones, B. Khamis HB: T. Duryea, J. O’Donnell, B. Dale C: E. Richards, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: C. Weightman, S. Darcy, J. Macrae F: L. Vandermeer, J. Ugle-Hagan, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: C. Daniel, J. Freijah, H. Gallagher, R. Sanders, A. Scott EMG: O. Baker, J. Busslinger, L. McNeil

The Swans are the best team in the AFL and it isn’t close. With each passing week they further establish their position on top of the ladder, where they currently sit with a three-game and 34% gap on the second-placed Blues. Their latest victim was the Giants, who were no match for their cross-town rivals and who were probably flattered by the 27-point final margin after they managed to peg it back after being blown out of the water in the second and early parts of the third quarter. They are set to get even better soon, too, with Callum Mills just about ready to return – though fitting him into their current 22 will be a difficult, albeit very welcome, proposition for coach John Longmire.  
 
Next in line to try to knock them off their perch is the Dockers, who will obviously have their work cut out but who are certainly capable of making life hard for the Premiership favourites. Following their 20-point win over the Suns last Sunday, Freo have jumped up to fifth spot and are well and truly in the mix for a top four position. Sydney aside they are the stingiest team in the league in terms of points conceded, and their previously stunted offence is beginning to look a little more potent than it has in the past. They are a really tough team to play against and on the smaller SCG should be able to force a tight, contested affair, but it’s impossible to go past the Swans against anyone at the moment, let alone on their home deck.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.24
	Swans 1-39	$2.20
	Under 172.5 total match points	$1.87

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe - C, T. McCartin, L. Melican HB: O. Florent, H. Cunningham, N. Blakey C: J. McInerney, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: J. Jordon, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: J. Lloyd, B. Campbell, S. Wicks, H. McLean, C. Cleary EMG: M. Roberts, C. Mitchell, P. Ladhams

Fremantle Dockers: B: H. Chapman, B. Cox, H. Davies HB: C. Wagner, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, N. Fyfe, H. Young HF: B. Banfield, L. Jackson, M. Frederick F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, S. Switkowski FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw I/C: J. Aish, M. Johnson, J. O’Meara, S. Sturt, K. Worner EMG: N. Erasmus, T. Emmett, P. Voss

• The Dockers have played in just three games this year that have resulted in more than 173 points being scored – the line for this game is set at 172. 5.  
• The Suns have beaten the Magpies just once in their last ten attempts; Collingwood winning last year’s clash by 78 points.  
• The Bombers have only played five games against teams currently in the top eight this year, and have won just one of them.  

Multi of the Week

The Suns are in serious danger of yet another season of being almost but not quite good enough to make their first ever finals appearance, but a win this weekend against the reigning Premiers would be a great way to put their name right back in the ring. They have now lost a couple of games in a row after going down to the Dockers by 20 points last Sunday, sending them to 7-7 and 12th place. All is far from lost – they are just a game outside of 8th spot – though they have shown a concerning lack of offensive potency ever since their dominant 164-100 win over the Cats, and in the last two weeks have booted just 17 goals.  
 
The Magpies, meanwhile, have lost just once since Round 2 as they continue to mount a compelling Premiership defence. Admittedly their last win was far from the most convincing as they were forced to fight their way back from 54 points against the Kangaroos, but though they undoubtedly enjoyed a bit of fortune late in that game, they ultimately secured the four points regardless of how they got there. They will need to play better than that up on the Gold Coast against a solid Suns outfit, but with a couple of important players potentially making their way back into the lineup they should be able to reel off yet another win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.81
	Magpies -2.5	$1.91
	Magpies 25+	$3.30

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, M. Andrew, W. Powell HB: S. Flanders, B. Uwland, J. Jeffrey C: B. Ainsworth, T. Miller, S. Clohesy HF: T. Berry, B. King, B. Humphrey F: B. Long, S. Day, J. Lukosius FOLL: J. Witts - C, N. Anderson, M. Rowell I/C: D. Swallow, W. Graham, A. Sexton, C. Ballard, B. Ellis EMG: A. Davies, H. Oea, L. Johnston

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, C. Dean HB: I. Quaynor, S. Sidebottom, J. Noble C: W. Hoskin-Elliott, S. Pendlebury, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, L. Schultz, B. Mihocek F: B. McCreery, P. Lipinski, J. Howe FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, N. Daicos I/C: O. Markov, B. Frampton, L. Sullivan, H. Harrison, O. Markov EMG: F. Macrae, R. McInnes, J. Bytel

The bye probably came at the right time for the Crows, whose season has not gone remotely as planned. After showing drastic improvement last year they now find themselves at 4-9 and having lost three games on the trot, and the side which so impressed for much of last year has been almost unrecognisable in that time. There have still been signs of it at times, and a percentage of over 100 despite that 4-9 record is indicative of that. But with finals virtually out of the equation they have fallen in a heap, and will need to come out of the bye with a bit more vigour than they have shown in the past month if they are to compete with the Giants.  
 
The Premiership favourite earlier in the year, GWS have been trading wins and losses for the past few weeks and looked a fair way off the pace up against the team that has well and truly replaced them for favouritism in the Swans last weekend. Though a 27-point final margin was no disaster, they were pumped when that game was on the line in a game which showed once again just how far ahead of the chasing pack the Swans currently are. The Giants are very much a part of that chasing pack, but with just one game separating them for the Hawks in 13th they could easily find themselves falling out of it. The Crows, at their best, can win this game, but they have looked like a defeated collective over the past few months. The Giants can continue to alternate wins and losses with a tight victory on Saturday evening.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.17
	Lions 1-39	$2.25
	Demons +14.5 first half	$1.87

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: N. Murray, J. Butts, M. Hinge HB: J. Borlase, M. Keane, W. Hamill C: C. Jones, J. Soligo, L. Sholl HF: B. Keays, D. Fogarty, J. Rachele F: T. Walker, L. Murphy, I. Rankine FOLL: K. Strachan, R. Laird, J. Dawson - C I/C: S. Berry, M. Michalanney, L. Nankervis, H. Schoenberg, B. Cook EMG: B. Smith, B. Dowling, R. O’Brien

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, J. Buckley, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, L. Aleer, L. Ash C: R. Angwin, T. Green, X. O’Halloran HF: B. Daniels, M. Gruzewski, T. Bedford F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, H. Thomas FOLL: K. Briggs, F. Callaghan, J. Kelly I/C: J. Peatling, C. Ward, C. Brown, J. Riccardi, S. Coniglio EMG: H. Rowston, J. Wehr, L. Keeffe

One of the more intriguing games of the round will see the Cats ‘host’ the Bombers, though if the game was actually being played at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong the home team would have a much better chance of winning it. As it is, the Bombers will enter the game as slight favourites; though deservedly? I’m not so sure. There is no doubt that the Cats are flailing; they were toyed with by the Blues last Friday night, going down by 63 points to make it six losses in their last seven games, but it’s worth mentioning that has been during a relatively difficult period of their fixture. They have certainly lost plenty of credibility in the Premiership race in that time, but it’s worth remembering that it was only a few weeks ago they were the only undefeated team in the AFL.  
 
In stark contrast, the Bombers took their record to 9-1-4 last weekend, continuing their charge towards a finals appearance and potentially even a top four finish. But unlike the Cats, a friendly fixture has certainly helped them in that regard. They are 3-2 in their last five games and the teams that they have beaten are the Eagles, Tigers and Kangaroos in that time, while they also beat the Eagles a couple of weeks prior to that in a strange quirk of the fixture. That’s not to completely discredit their season; they have also beaten the Giants and drawn with the Magpies in the last couple of months, and have certainly improved. But games against top eight teams have been relatively few and far between of late, and their win/loss record has certainly benefited from that fact. This should be a close game between a team in freefall and a team on the up, but the Cats have made a habit of bouncing back just when the AFL world is on the cusp of writing them off for many years now. They can do that again with a tight win on the big stage on Saturday night.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$2.05
	Cats +3.5	$1.91
	Cats 1-39	$2.60

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: M. Duncan, T. Stewart, Z. Guthrie C: Z. Tuohy, M. Holmes, M. O’Connor HF: B. Close, J. Cameron, G. Miers F: T. Stengle, S. Neale, O. Henry FOLL: M. Blicavs, J. Clark, T. Atkins I/C: O. Dempsey, G. Rohan, O. Mullin, M. Knevitt, J. Bowes EMG: R. Stanley, M. Hardie, L. Humphries

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: X. Duursma, S. Durham, A. Perkins HF: M. Guelfi, J. Gresham, H. Jones F: J. Stringer, P. Wright, K. Langford FOLL: S. Draper, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: N. Caddy, N. Cox, N. Hind, D. Heppell, J. Menzie EMG: W. Setterfield, J. Gresham, T. Goldstein

Speaking of teams in freefall, a couple of them will kick things off on Sunday afternoon when the Saints host the Power at Marvel Stadium. In fairness St. Kilda’s last couple of games have been reasonable enough; they managed to beat the Eagles and the Suns in successive weeks and, after being thoroughly outplayed for much of the game against the Lions a few weeks ago, very nearly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in that game. But the stark reality is that they are 5-9 and look both too far back and not nearly good enough to play finals this year after finishing 6th last year, and though their papers are probably already stamped, another loss this Sunday would truly be the nail in the coffin.  
 
But the Power are not exactly the most daunting team going around at the moment. After winning eight of their first 11 games they have lost three in a row, and they haven’t been the most gallant of defeats, particularly last week. They were beaten reasonably comfortably by first the Blues and then the Giants, but last week they hit rock bottom when the Lions beat them by 79 points at Adelaide Oval. The target on Ken Hinkley’s back is growing by the week, and if they can’t knock off the Saints this week the noise surrounding his future will reach fever pitch in the City of Churches. It’s hard to back either of these sides with a great deal of confidence at the minute, but the Power, at their best, are the better team. They’re certainly not playing at that level of late, but they can overcome the Saints’ stifling, low-scoring game style and eke out a much-needed win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Power to win	$2.00
	Power +2.5	$1.90
	Power 1-39	$2.50

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, Z. Cordy, C. Wilkie HB: A. Schoenmaker, N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Sinclair C: B. Hill, M. Windhager, M. Wood HF: D. Butler, L. Henry, M. Owens F: J. Higgins, M. King, A. Caminiti FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, P. Dow I/C: Z. Jones, S. Ross, H. Clark, D. Wilson, C. Sharman EMG: R. Byrnes, B. Paton, T. Campbell

Port Adelaide Power: B: K. Farrell, E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher HB: L. Evans, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, C. Rozee - C, W. Drew HF: J. McEntee, T. Marshall, M. Bergman F: D. Byrne-Jones, O. Lord, M. Georgiades FOLL: I. Soldo, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: O. Wines, J. Sinn, J. Burgoyne, J. Finlayson, Q. Narkle EMG: D. Visentini, F. Evans, J. Mead

For a long time the Tigers have had the wood over the Blues in clashes between two of the biggest, oldest clubs in the league, winning 11 in a row between 2014 and 2021, most of which came on the traditional Thursday night season opener at the beginning of each year. But the tide has begun to turn for both clubs, and the Blues have wrestled back a bit of momentum as a result. They have been the better team for the past two years, though the results have not entirely reflected that, with a draw played out last year before Carlton just snuck over the line by five points in their clash earlier this year. But the gap between the two is widening by the week.  
 
Carlton have established themselves as perhaps the biggest threat to Sydney’s Premiership hopes and at the very worst one of the best three teams in the league, with their 63-point win over the Cats last weekend their fourth in a row. The Tigers, meanwhile, still have just two wins to their name this season, and were no match for the Hawks in their last outing the week after they notched up that second win against the Crows. The Tigers are beginning to get a few of their plethora of injured players back and will continue to get more competitive as they do so, but even if they had a full list to choose from they would be a long way off the rapid pace set by the Blues. Carlton shouldn’t have too many problems making it five wins on the trot this Sunday afternoon.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers +41.5	$1.90
	Blues 1-39	$2.60
	Blues to win	$1.10

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, N. Balta HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: K. McIntosh, L. Baker, H. Ralphsmith HF: R. Mansell, S. Bolton, S. Campbell F: J. Koschitzke, D. Martin, N. Cumberland FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, T. Taranto, D. Prestia I/C: T. Sonsie, T. Dow, K. McAuliffe, J. Graham, J. Short EMG: J. Trezise, S. Banks, K. Smith

Carlton Blues: B: J. Boyd, J. Weitering, B. Kemp HB: N. Newman, M. McGovern, A. Saad C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: L. Fogarty, H. McKay, Z. Williams F: M. Owies, C. Curnow, A. Cincotta FOLL: T. De Koning, S. Walsh, G. Hewett I/C: L. Cowan, M. Kennedy, E. Hollands, A. Cerra, J. Martin EMG: J. Motlop, C. Marchbank, M. Pittonet

A matchup between 16th and 13th to conclude the round might not evoke a great deal of intrigue, but this is a sneaky interesting game between two improving teams. The Eagles have shown plenty of improvement this season after establishing themselves as perhaps the worst team in AFL history over the past couple of years, putting together a couple of very impressive performances over the past two months. They have gone back to their losing ways in the last few weeks with four losses in a row, though the last three of those have been reasonably close and at home they have continued to be consistently competitive. And though the Hawks are sitting in 13th, the home side will need that form if they’re to mount any sort of a challenge this week.  
 
Since losing their first five games of the season, Hawthorn have now won six of their last seven games, and the only loss in that time should have been a win after they let the Power kick two goals in the last 25 seconds to snatch a one-point victory. In their latest outing, they spoiled the Dusty Martin show with an easy 48-point win over the Tigers in their superstar’s 300th, and they will be expecting to continue that winning form this weekend. As good as Hawthorn’s recent form has been they will not have things all their own way in this game given how West Coast has been playing at home for most of this year, but in an interesting Sunday afternoon affair, they can continue their charge towards the top eight with a solid win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Hawks to win	$1.48
	Hawks 1-39	$2.25
	Hawks 1-24	$3.25

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: B. Hough, T. Barrass, A. Witherden HB: T. Cole, J. McGovern, L. Duggan – C C: J. Jones, E. Yeo, J. Hunt HF: J. Cripps, J. Waterman, L. Ryan F: R. Maric, O. Allen, J. Darling FOLL: M. Flynn, H. Reid, T. Kelly I/C: T. Brockman, C. Chesser, B. Williams, R. Ginbey, J. Petrucelle EMG: A. Gaff, H. Edwards, J. Culley

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Impey, S. Frost, J. Scrimshaw HB: K. Amon, J. Sicily - C, W. Day C: J. Weddle, D. Moore, J. Worpel HF: C. Mackenzie, J. Gunston, M. Lewis F: J. Ginnivan, M. Chol, L. Breust FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Jiath I/C: N. Watson, M. D’Ambrosio, C. Nash, C. Macdonald, B. Hardwick EMG: J. Serong, M. Ramsden, C. Dear

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And it’s not only content about the AFL or various bookmakers that we have for you either.  If you’re more of a rugby fan than an AFL one, then we have an NRL predictions piece just like this AFL piece each week of the season, while we also have NBA prediction pieces coming out a number of times a week and prior to each NBA Finals game.  So whether you’re into rugby, footy, or NBA, want to find out where to go if another sport is your thing, or just want general information about betting sites in Australia, then this is the place for you.  

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