AFL 2023 Round 16 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 16
AFL 2023 Round 16

After a long four weeks of bye rounds, finally we’re back to a full slate of games in Round 16 – and it’s a good one. It kicks off with a repeat of last year’s thrilling Elimination Final between the Lions and the Tigers before a Grand Final repeat follows the next day. On Saturday, top eight contenders go head to head when the Bulldogs host the Dockers, while the Bombers also take on the Power and the Suns go up against the Magpies. Check out our detailed previews for all nine games set to take place this weekend below.

Round 16 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Lions vs TigersThursday June 29 at 7.20pm$1.36$3.15
Swans vs CatsFriday June 30 at 7.50pm$1.90$1.90
Crows vs KangaroosSaturday July 1 at 1.45pm$1.10$7.00
Bulldogs vs DockersSaturday July 1 at 1.45pm$1.45$2.75
Suns vs MagpiesSaturday July 1 at 4.35pm$2.25$1.65
Bombers vs PowerSaturday July 1 at 7.25pm$2.50$1.53
Hawks vs BluesSunday July 2 at 1.10pm$3.30$1.34
Demons vs GiantsSunday July 2 at 3.20pm$1.34$3.30
Eagles vs Saints Sunday July 2 at 4.40pm$10.00$1.05

Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers

Round 16 kicks off with a battle between the big cats and a repeat of last year’s thrilling Elimination Final when the Lions host the Tigers at the Gabba on Thursday night. The last time they met, Brisbane ended Richmond’s season in the first week of the 2022 finals with a thrilling victory which came after a controversial Tom Lynch miss in the dying minutes was followed up by a disastrous Tigers’ error in the goal square to concede a late goal. While they finished side by side last years, however, their 2023 seasons have gone in opposite directions. A top four spot is the Lions’ to lose, with ten wins coming from their 14 games including a strong win over St. Kilda on the road last week. The Tigers, meanwhile, are back in 12th after they lost five games in a row between Rounds 3 and 7, but they’ve won three games on the trot which followed a tight loss to the Power since Andrew McQualter took the reins, and are beginning to look like they’ll make a late charge for September. Teams coming off the bye, which the Tigers are, haven’t been performing particularly well this season, but with this game both interstate and on a Thursday Richmond will probably be grateful for the rest. With their hot form and a strong record against the Lions they can certainly make this a close game, but it’s hard to tip against Brisbane on their home turf.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions 1-39$2.20
Lions 1-24$3.40
Lions to win$1.35

Predicted Squads

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews - C, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, K.Coleman C: J.Berry, W.Ashcroft, H.McCluggage HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, Z.Bailey F: L.McCarthy, J.Daniher, C.Rayner FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale I/C: K.Lohmann, D. Zorko, J.Fletcher, D.Wilmot

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: N.Broad, D.Grimes, N.Balta HB: D.Rioli, N.Vlastuin, J.Short C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross HF: S.Bolton, L.Baker, J.Graham F: S.Ryan, D.Martin, J.Riewoldt FOLL: T.Nankervis, T.Cotchin, J. Hopper I/C: B.Miller, T.Young, J.Clarke, R.Mansell

Sydney Swans vs Geelong Cats

Heading into the season the AFL would have been looking at the first two games of this round as one of the best beginnings to a round in 2023, with all four teams set to play on Thursday and Friday night entering the season among the Premiership favourites. But like the Tigers, both the Swans and the Cats have failed to live up to that billing so far this year. Incredibly, they both currently sit outside the top eight, though the Cats are in ninth and looking very ominous over the shoulders of the sides occupying positions five through eight. Sydney’s situation is a little more dire – at least, it has been throughout the year. But a ridiculous 171-point win over the disastrous Eagles last weekend saw them move to within a game of the Cats, and the dominant nature of their victory took their percentage up to 113.3% too. They are well and truly within striking distance of the eight, but the way they’ve played throughout the season with the exception of last weekend is not close to the level of a top eight side. But perhaps that was the win they needed to get their tails up and work their way back into the season. The likes of Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner lit up the SCG in that game and reminded the world of how this team managed to make the Grand Final last year, but it’s also worth remembering how they fared once there. Even if the Swans can carry a bit of momentum from last week’s big win, the Cats should be too strong and can jump into the top eight with a win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats to win$1.90
Cats 1-39$2.50
Cats -1.5$1.95

Predicted Squads

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: L.Melican, D.Rampe, H.Cunningham HB: J.Lloyd, N.Blakey, O.Florent C: B.Campbell, J.Rowbottom, J.McInerney HF: W.Hayward, H.McLean, E.Gulden F: T.Papley, J.Amartey, I.Heeney FOLL: T.Hickey, L.Parker, Ch.Warner I/C: A.Francis, L.McDonald, A.Sheldrick, C.Mills - C

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, Z.Tuohy HB: J.Henry, E. Ratugolea, T. Stewart C: I.Smith, M.Duncan, M.Holmes HF: O.Henry, G. Miers, T.Stengle F: G.Rohan, T.Hawkins, B.Close FOLL: R.Stanley, M.Blicavs, T.Bruhn I/C: J.Bews, M.O’Connor, T. Atkins, J.Kolodjashnij

Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

The Crows might have gone down last week, but they lost absolutely no supporters in their two-point loss to the Magpies; a loss which made the cumulative total of their two defeats to the nominal Premiership favourites just three points. That was a finals-like game played at a very high intensity and of very high quality, and if anything gave further credence to the Crows’ finals push. They’re only hanging onto their spot in the eight by a thread, but can solidify it this week with a win which should give them a little bit of breathing space. That’s not to completely discredit the Kangaroos – they’ve been significantly more competitive of late and haven’t been beaten all that comfortably for over a month, but the fact remains that they haven’t won a solitary game since Round 2. That’s not so good, particularly given they’re heading to Adelaide Oval, where the Crows have been substantially better than what they’ve been on the road this year. Adelaide should be far too good here, and can notch up their ninth win of the season and give themselves a little percentage boost while they’re at it too.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Crows to win$1.10
Crows 25+$1.40
Crows -40.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, J.Butts, N.Murray HB: M.Hinge, J.Worrell, W.Milera C: C.Jones, J.Dawson - C, L.Sholl HF: J.Rachele, D.Fogarty, L.Pedlar F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays I/C: J.Soligo, R.Thilthorpe, R.Sloane, M.Michalanney

North Melbourne North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: J.Ziebell, G.Logue, B.McKay HB: L.Shiels, H.Sheezel, L.McDonald C: J.Simpkin - C, T.Thomas, B.Scott HF: E.Ford, T.Powell, J.Stephenson F: C.Zurhaar, N.Larkey, C.Coleman-Jones FOLL: T.Goldstein, W.Phillips, L. Davies-Uniacke I/C: H.Greenwood, P.Curtis, G. Wardlaw, A.Corr

  • It’s been about three months since the Eagles didn’t lose a game by more than 40 points.
  • The Giants have lost their last four games at the MCG by an average of just under 45 points
  • The Dockers aren’t typically viewed as a good team in Melbourne, but they’ve lost just two of their last seven games at Marvel Stadium.

Multi of the Week

Saints 40+$1.55
Demons -18.5$1.90
Dockers to win$2.75
Bet $10 for $80.99 with PlayUp

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers

The proverbial eight-point games are going to come thick and fast over the remaining couple of months of the season, with ten and potentially even 11 teams looking likely to fight for the bottom four spots in the eight. The Bulldogs and the Dockers are two of those. At present, the Doggies hold one of those coveted positions – they sit in seventh – but their only win in their last four games came against North Melbourne and their percentage pales into comparison with most of the teams around them. So too does that of the Dockers, but they’re coming off a strong win against the Bombers last week. It’s worth noting, of course, that that win was preceded by an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Giants and a loss to the Tigers before that – but before that they were on a tear after a slow start to the season. Their topsy turvy season stands in stark contrast to their reliability last year, and makes them a particularly hard team to tip – as does that of the Dogs. The Dogs deserve to be favourites at Marvel Stadium, but I can quite easily see the Dockers coming to Melbourne and knocking them off at good odds. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dockers to win$2.75
Dockers 1-39$3.25
Dockers +13.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: T.Duryea, J. Bruce, O. Baker HB: B.Dale, A. Keath, L.Vandermeer C: J.Macrae, M.Bontempelli - C, B.Williams HF: B.Smith, A.Naughton, A.Treloar F: C.Weightman, J.Ugle-Hagan, R.Lobb FOLL: T.English, C.Daniel, T.Liberatore I/C: A. Jones, R.West, A.Scott, M.Hannan

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce, H.Young HB: B.Walker, L.Ryan, J.Clark C: L.Henry, C.Serong, M.Frederick HF: J.Treacy, L.Jackson, M.Walters F: S.Switkowski, J.Amiss, L.Schultz FOLL: S.Darcy, A.Brayshaw, N.Fyfe I/C: J. Aish, M.Johnson, J.O’Meara, E.Hughes

Gold Coast Suns vs Collingwood Magpies

Thank God for the Suns that they smashed the Hawks last week. After their pitiful performance against the Blues a fortnight ago the critics came out swinging, with over a decade of underperformance the ammunition. Whether equating this team to the Suns of days past is open to judgement, but fair or not, had they subsequently lost to the Hawks on the Gold Coast those critics would have got a whole lot louder. As it were, however, they promptly came out and gave the visitors a good old thumping, restoring a bit of faith and putting them right back in the picture for the top eight, even if most don’t really give the much of a chance. A win this weekend would certainly change that. Collingwood are the Premiership favourites in the eyes of most, with a top four spot basically sewn up and even top two looking extremely likely. They were challenged strongly by the Crows last week but as they do seemingly every week, managed to just sneak over the line. Despite being the best team in the league in the eyes of most they are in an awful lot of close games, but they also just win them seemingly every single time. They should be able to do the same this weekend, and likely with a couple of goals up their sleeve too.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.65
Magpies 1-39$2.35
Magpies -6.5$1.90

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: B.Long, D.Macpherson, W.Powell C: B.Ellis, D.Swallow, B.Ainsworth HF: S.Flanders, N.Holman, J.Lukosius F: B.Humphrey, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: B.Fiorini, H.Oea, M.Rosas, L.Weller

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: I.Quaynor, D.Moore - C, B.Maynard HB: J.Howe, N.Murphy, J.Noble C: P.Lipinski, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos HF: H.Harrison, B.Mihocek, W.Hoskin-Elliott F: J.Elliott, D.Cameron, T.Adams FOLL: M.Cox, J.Crisp, T.Mitchell I/C: B.Hill, N.Daicos, O.Markov, A.Johnson

Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power

Essendon’s four-game winning streak finally came to an end last weekend with a disappointing loss to the Dockers, but they’re still likely pretty happy with where they’re at 14 games into the season, sitting in sixth place with an 8-6 record. They’ve given themselves a legitimate shot at playing finals in their first season under Brad Scott, but with five teams within a game below them and another three within two games, their spot in the top eight is precarious to say the least – particularly with a game against the Power to come this weekend. Port Adelaide enjoyed a well-deserved rest after 11 consecutive wins last weekend, though they probably didn’t particularly want it given the way they were humming along. Teams haven’t responded too well to the bye so far this year, but the Power have proven that they aren’t any old team. If ever they were going to be vulnerable this might be the week, with a trip to Melbourne after a bye, but so good has their form been all year that they’ve made it impossible to tip against them.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Power to win$1.53
Power 1-39$2.30
Power -10.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: A.McGrath, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Laverde HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, K.Langford C: N.Martin, Z.Merrett - C, D.Heppell HF: S.Durham, S.Weideman, W.Snelling F: M.Guelfi, P.Wright, J.Stringer FOLL: S. Draper, D.Parish, J.Caldwell I/C: A. Phillips, A.Perkins, J.Kelly, J.Menzie

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: D.Byrne-Jones, T.McKenzie, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, A.Aliir, D.Williams C: M.Bergman, J.Horne-Francis, J.Sinn HF: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, T.Boak F: J.Finlayson, C.Dixon, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: S.Lycett, O.Wines - C, C.Rozee I/C: J.McEntee, W.Drew, R.Burton, J.Rioli

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues

Sunday doesn’t quite hold the allure of the previous couple of days of Round 16, but each game is still important in its own right and this one is no different. The Hawks and the Blues sit side by side in 16th and 15th respectively, but they would each have pretty different feelings about how their seasons have played out to date. The Hawks certainly struggled early but over the past few weeks have shown plenty of promising signs, though last week there weren’t many of them in a measly effort against the Suns. Still, last time they played in Melbourne they knocked off the Lions, so they’ll count themselves as in with a chance against the Blues. Carlton, however, might finally have found the switch they were so desperately looking for for over two months in their last game, knocking off the Suns themselves by ten goals before heading into a bye. They might have left themselves a bit too much to bite off to get back into finals contention, but stranger things can happen and a second consecutive win can certainly help. The improving Hawks might keep this close for a while, but Carlton will surely be too good.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Blues 1-39$2.15
Blues 1-24$3.25
Blues to win$1.35

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawks: B: J.Scrimshaw, J.Blanck, S.Mitchell HB: J.Weddle, B.Hardwick, W.Day C: K.Amon, J.Worpel, J.Impey HF: L.Breust, T.Brockman, C.Nash F: L.Meek, M.Lewis, J.Koschitzke FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Newcombe, D.Moore I/C: C.Mackenzie, S.Frost, C. Ward, C.Macdonald

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, N.Newman HB: J.Boyd, M.McGovern, A.Saad C: B.Acres, P.Cripps - C, M.Kennedy HF: D.Cuningham, C.Curnow, J.Martin F: M.Owies, H.McKay, L.Fogarty FOLL: M.Pittonet, A.Cerra, S.Walsh I/C: S.Docherty, A.Cincotta, T.De Koning, M.Cottrell

Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants

The Demons’ interesting year continued last weekend, with a loss to the Cats punctuated by a last quarter collapse following on from their best win of the season the week prior against the Magpies. It continued a trend of inconsistency for Melbourne, which at their best still looks like a strong Premiership contender – if not favourite – but who has chucked in a few disappointing efforts in amongst that. As disappointing as that last quarter collapse was, however, a 15-point loss to the Cats in Geelong is nothing to be too ashamed of, and they should have an easier time of things this week at home against the Giants. That’s not to say the Giants can’t cause a stir – they are certainly capable of doing so and appear to be becoming more capable with each passing week. A combination of veterans still playing high quality footy and a lot of really talented youth coming through has made them a dangerous team, as they showed in their 106-36 win over Freo before last week’s bye. They can play some really exciting footy at times and on the wide expanses of the MCG might be able to string together some quality passages of footy, but the Dees – most weeks – are one of the most disciplined units in the AFL. They should be able to keep the youthful exuberance of the Giants at bay and record a solid victory to re-solidify their spot in the top four.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons to win$1.34
Demons/Demons half-time/full-time double$1.55
Demons -18.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons Melbourne Demons: B: T.Rivers, S.May, J.McVee HB: A.Brayshaw, J.Lever, C.Salem C: A.Neal-Bullen, J.Viney, E.Langdon HF: K.Pickett, B.Fritsch, T.Sparrow F: J.Smith, M.Gawn, K.Chandler FOLL: B.Grundy, C.Petracca, L.Hunter I/C: J.van Rooyen, M.Hibberd, J.Jordon, H.Petty

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, C.Idun HB: L.Whitfield, H.Himmelberg, L.Ash C: J.Kelly, C.Ward, F.Callaghan HF: C.Brown, J.Riccardi, T.Greene – C F: X.O’Halloran, J.Hogan, T.Bedford FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Green, S.Coniglio I/C: D.Lloyd, L.Keeffe, N.Haynes, H.Perryman

West Coast Eagles vs St. Kilda Saints

At some point you’d think the Eagles would hit rock bottom, but they’ve many times redefined just what that is and last week was perhaps the most pertinent example of that we’ve seen yet. There are no words to describe their performance last week, a performance which saw them concede 205 points to a Sydney side which has struggled all year and ultimately go down by 171 points. That knocked their percentage down to an extraordinary 47.3%, further solidifying them as perhaps the worst team since Fitzroy, if not worse. A team like that is just what the doctor ordered for the Saints. After a brilliant start to the season after Ross Lyon, there are concerning signs that like last year, that quality start might go to waste. Their loss to the Lions last weekend was their third in the last four games, and while they still sit in fifth spot they are beginning to look like the top eight team most ripe for the picking for the very capable chasing pack. They badly need to get back on the winners’ list and right the ship, and the Eagles present a pretty easy opportunity to do just that. Hopefully for Adam Simpson, Eagles fans and the club more generally they can find something to cheer about this Sunday, but given they haven’t got within 40 points of an opposition since Round 2, it’s unlikely to be about a win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Saints to win$1.05
Saints 40+$1.55
Saints -49.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: L.Duggan, T.Barrass, A.Witherden HB: B.Hough, R.Bazzo, J.Hunt C: L.Edwards, D. Sheed, A.Gaff HF: N.Long, J.Darling, J. Cripps: F R.Maric, O.Allen, J.Petruccelle FOLL: B.Williams, T.Kelly, L.Shuey I/C: R.Ginbey, E.Hewett, S.Petrevski-Seton, J.Williams

St. Kilda St. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: L.Stocker, J.Webster, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, B.Crouch, B.Hill HF: M.Phillipou, J.Higgins, M.Owens F: A.Caminiti, M.King, D.Butler FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Sinclair, M.Windhager I/C: J.Gresham, J.Steele, S. Ross, B.Paton

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