AFL 2023 Round 17– Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 17
AFL 2023 Round 17

With just a few weeks left in the season and plenty of teams still in the finals hunt, Round 17 of the AFL season will see a number of teams stuck in the tight middle section of the ladder go head to head. It kicks off with a clash between the Tigers and Swans, both of whom badly need a win to stay in finals contention, before the Bulldogs and Magpies clash in a huge Friday night game the next day. Elsewhere, the Saints take on the Demons, the Bombers go head to head with Adelaide, while Fremantle and Carlton clash in Perth to conclude the round. Take a look at each and every one of our previews below.

Round 17 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Tigers vs SwansThursday July 6 at 7.20pm$1.77$2.05
Bulldogs vs MagpiesFriday July 7 at 7.50pm$2.55$1.52
Lions vs EaglesSaturday July 8 at 1.45pm$1.01$26.00
Giants vs HawksSaturday July 8 at 4.45pm$1.20$4.50
Saints vs DemonsSaturday July 8 at 7.25pm$2.80$1.44
Power vs SunsSaturday July 8 at 7.40pm$1.18$4.85
Cats vs KangaroosSunday July 9 at 1.10pm$1.06$9.00
Bombers vs CrowsSunday July 9 at 3.20pm$1.83$1.97
Dockers vs BluesSunday July 9 at 4.40pm$1.72$2.10

Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans

At 13th and 15th two-thirds of the way into the season this doesn’t exactly loom as a Thursday night clash of the titans, but both the Tigers and the Swans are capable of playing good footy on their day and are still very much in the hunt for the top eight. On the flip side, both are up against it to play finals after both doing so last year, but the winner here could feasibly move to within half a game of eighth spot. The Tigers are coming off their worst loss of the season against the Lions, a game which seriously hampered their finals chances after they’d put themselves right in the mix with three consecutive wins. That game was a disaster and may very well be evidence of the fact that they’re just not good enough, but on the other side of the coin it was just a week ago that people were talking about them as a great chance of making a late season run for September and even potentially doing some damage once there. The Swans, meanwhile, backed up their extraordinary 171-point win over the Eagles with a solid albeit scrappy performance against the Cats which ended in a draw, but which probably should have seen them get the four points. They appear to have found some semblance of form, and it’s just in the nick of time. But with only a few games to go, both the Swans and the Tigers need to start winning now, and the loser of this can almost put a line through their season. Earlier this season the Swans won by more than seven goals against the Tigers, but that was actually a close game until the final few minutes and was played in Sydney. In Melbourne, and with Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia both expected to return, the Tigers can get themselves an important win this Thursday night.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Tigers to win$1.75
Tigers 1-39$2.30
Tigers -4.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: N.Balta, D.Grimes - C, T.Young HB: D.Rioli, N.Vlastuin, N.Broad C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, M.Pickett HF: D.Prestia, L.Baker, J.Graham F: J.Bauer, J.Riewoldt, D.Martin FOLL: T.Nankervis, T.Cotchin, S.Bolton I/C: S.Banks, J.Hopper, B.Miller, M.Rioli

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: H.Cunningham, L.Melican, D.Rampe HB: J.Lloyd, O.Florent, N.Blakey C: E.Gulden, J.Rowbottom, B.Campbell HF: H.McLean, L.McDonald, W.Hayward F: I.Heeney, L.Franklin, T.Papley FOLL: T.Hickey, L.Parker - C, C.Mills I/C: T.McCartin, A.Sheldrick, R.Fox, J.McInerney

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies

The Dogs haven’t been at their absolute best for a number of weeks now, with three consecutive losses being followed up by a closer than they would have liked defeat of the Kangaroos, but last weekend they put in a stronger showing than they had for a while against the Dockers. While the 29-point margin probably flattered them in the end, with a run of late goals making it a bigger deficit than it looked like being, they still played some solid footy and ended up with a second consecutive win to keep them locked relatively comfortably in the top eight. But with a host of teams nipping at their heels they can’t afford to slip up too much, and this Friday night will be a mighty tough ask for them to keep winning. The Pies had a little down period by their standard when losing in a tight game to the Dees and then just knocking off the Crows in Melbourne the next week, but they were high quality games and they backed it up with a dominant showing against the Suns last week. They’re still every bit the best team in the competition right now – with Port Adelaide their only competition – and should be able to get the job done against the Bulldogs on Friday.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies to win$1.53
Tigers 1-39$2.30
Magpies -10.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: T.Duryea, R.Gardner, J.O’Donnell HB: B.Dale, A.Keath, L.Vandermeer C: J.Macrae, M.Bontempelli - C, B.Williams HF: B.Smith, A.Naughton, A.Treloar F: C.Weightman, J.Ugle-Hagan, R.Lobb FOLL: T.English, C.Daniel, T.Liberatore I/C: C.Poulter, L.McNeil, A.Scott, M.Hannan

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: B.Frampton, D.Moore - C, I. Quaynor HB: J.Howe, N.Daicos, J.Noble C: O.Markov, S.Pendlebury, J.Daicos HF: W.Hoskin-Elliott, A. Johnson, P.Lipinski F: J.Elliott, D.Cameron, T.Adams FOLL: M.Cox, J. De Goey, T.Mitchell I/C: B. Hill, J.Crisp, N.Murphy, B.McCreery

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles

This might be one of the most lopsided matchups in the history of the AFL. The Lions don’t even have odds to bet on, such is the certainty that they will win, and most likely by an enormous margin – and that’s after the Eagles put in their best performance since March last weekend against the Saints. The Lions have been right up there for years and 2023 is no different, and after their dominant performance against the Tigers they look likely to finish in the top four this season, barring a severe drop off in form to end the season. And if they could beat the Tigers so comfortably at the Gabba, one shudders to think about what they’ll do to the Eagles this weekend. West Coast finally gave something for supporters to be optimistic about last weekend, showing some resolve after their pathetic 171-point shellacking at the hands of the Swans the week prior to lead the Saints for a large part of last week’s game and ultimately lose by just eight points. As much as that was an improved showing, however, don’t expect it to continue this week. The Lions could win this game by ten goals with their eyes closed and will no doubt use it as a significant percentage booster, adding yet another huge loss to the Eagles’ growing list of them this season.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions -81.5$1.90
Lions 40+$1.10
Over 185.5 total match points$1.87

Predicted Squads

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews, J.Payne HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, K.Coleman C: J.Berry, W.Ashcroft, D. Robertson HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, Z.Bailey F: J. Gunston, J.Daniher, C.Rayner FOLL: O.McInerney, H. McCluggage, L.Neale I/C: D. Gardiner, K. Lohmann, J.Fletcher, D.Wilmot

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: S.Hurn, T.Barrass, A.Witherden HB: L.Duggan, R.Bazzo, B.Hough C: C.Chesser, T.Kelly, J.Hunt HF: J.Cripps, J.Darling, A.Gaff F: N.Long, O.Allen, E.Hewett FOLL: B.Williams, D.Sheed, L.Shuey - C I/C: R.Ginbey, L.Edwards, J.Petruccelle, J.Williams

  • The Demons have won their last three games against the Saints
  • Adelaide are just 1-5 on the road this year, with that solitary victory coming by just three points against the Hawks.
  • The Power have won all seven home games against interstate sides this year by an average of 30 points.

Multi of the Week

Demons to win$1.44
Bombers to win$1.83
Power -29.5$1.91
Bet $10 for $50.33 with PlayUp

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks

After not looking like it just a few short weeks ago, the Giants are suddenly right in the hunt for finals and could theoretically even move into the top eight with a big win this weekend. They might have been outplayed across the field by the Demons last week, but they converted their opportunities into majors to run out impressive 7.5.47 to 5.15.45 winners against one of the Premiership favourites. That was their third win in a row and their fourth in five weeks, taking their record to 7-8 and putting them to within a game of the top eight. The Hawks, meanwhile, have reverted to the worst version of themselves after an impressive win over the Lions a few weeks ago, losing their last two games by 59 and 60 points to first the Suns and then the Blues. That doesn’t bode well for this weekend. The Giants are beginning to really hum under Adam Kingsley, and on their home deck should have no problems disposing of the Hawks relatively comfortably.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Giants to win$1.20
Giants 40+$2.40
Giants -29.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, C.Idun HB: L.Ash, H.Himmelberg, N.Haynes C: J.Kelly, C.Ward, F.Callaghan HF: D.Lloyd, J.Riccardi, T.Bedford F: X.O’Halloran, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Green, S.Coniglio I/C: C.Brown, H.Perryman, I.Cumming, L.Keeffe

Hawthorn Hawthorn Hawks: B: J.Impey, J.Blanck, J.Scrimshaw HB: S.Mitchell, S.Frost, B.Hardwick C: J.Weddle, W.Day, K.Amon HF: J.Worpel, C.Macdonald, C.Nash F: L.Breust, M.Lewis, L.Meek FOLL: N.Reeves, J.Newcombe, D.Moore - C I/C: S.Butler, C.Wingard, J.Ward, Changkuoth Jiath

St. Kilda Saints vs Melbourne Demons

The Saints might have got the win last weekend, but they could hardly have been less impressive in doing so, beating the Eagles by just eight points. They are still hanging onto fifth spot courtesy of their hot start to the season, but a finals appearance is far from guaranteed; in fact, plenty of teams below them look a hell of a lot more likely to be there. The Saints had lost two in a row prior to that West Coast escape, and will this weekend be forced to take on a Demons outfit which will be champing at the bit to get a big win after two consecutive losses. In both of those losses, which came against the Cats and the Giants, the Demons have kicked very poorly at goal, something which is very much rectifiable, so it’s not as though they’ve completely lost the plot. Those losses have, however, seen them drop to 9-6, meaning they’re ahead of the Saints on percentage alone. That’s hard to believe. The Demons have shown at times this year that they’re still almost as good as anyone on their day, while the Saints have been gradually dropping down the pecking order as the year goes on and could very easily miss the finals. This should be a victory for the Demons.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Demons to win$1.44
Demons 25+$2.30
Demons -14.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Adelaide CrowsTeam: B: L. Stocker, D.Howard, C.Wilkie HB: J.Webster, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Wood, J.Steele - C, R.Byrnes HF: D.Butler, B.Hill, M.Owens F: A.Caminiti, M.King, J.Gresham FOLL: R.Marshall, B.Crouch, M.Windhager I/C: S.Ross, Z.Cordy, J.Higgins, M.Phillipou

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: J.McVee, S.May, C.Salem HB: T.Sparrow, J.Lever, T.Rivers C: L.Hunter, J.Viney, E.Langdon HF: C.Petracca, J. Van Rooyen, J.Smith F: A.Neal-Bullen, B.Grundy, K.Chandler FOLL: M.Gawn - C, A.Brayshaw, J.Harmes I/C: J.Bowey, H.Petty, K.Pickett, B.Brown

Port Adelaide Power vs Gold Coast Suns

Everyone knows that Dan Houston is a brilliant kick of the footy, but even by his standards that was something to behold. After 120 long minutes, he hoofed it every bit of 55 metres and then some, from a relatively tight angle no less, after the siren to knock off the Bombers last weekend and keep the Power’s now-12 game win-streak alive, taking their record to a very impressive 13-2. They’re a huge four games clear in the top four so should have no trouble hanging on there, and with a two-game jump on the Lions in third are looking pretty safe in the top two as well. They should be able to maintain that buffer this weekend. The Suns are still theoretically in the hunt for finals but two of their last three games have been really poor, the latest an absolute demolition job by the Magpies. Stewart Dew desperately needs his troops to pull his finger out, but a trip to Adelaide to take on the Power isn’t exactly what they need at the moment. Hopefully for his sake they can be a little more competitive than they were against the Pies last weekend, but it’s still hard to see any result other than a Port Adelaide win here.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Power to win$1.18
Over 152.5 total match points$1.91
Power -29.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: R.Bonner, T.McKenzie, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, A.Aliir, D.Williams C: M.Bergman, J.Horne-Francis, W.Drew HF: Z.Butters, T.Marshall, T.Boak F: D.Byrne-Jones, C.Dixon, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: S.Lycett, O.Wines - C, C.Rozee I/C: J.McEntee, J.Finlayson, R.Burton, J.Rioli

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: B.Long, D.Macpherson, W.Powell C: B.Ellis, D.Swallow, B.Ainsworth HF: S.Flanders, N.Holman, B.Humphrey F: J.Lukosius, B.King, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts - C, M.Rowell, N.Anderson I/C: J. Farrar, S. Lemmens, M.Rosas, L.Weller

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Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

A draw last week was a missed opportunity for the Cats to jump inside the top eight, but given that the Swans kicked 6.18 and had multiple missed chances to win the game, they’ll probably count themselves lucky to get the two points. They’re now half a game outside the eight, and will no doubt be frustrated to have made their percentage, which is superior to nearly all the teams around them, basically redundant with that draw. Still, it seems likely they’ll jump into the eight at some point in the run home, and it may well be this week when they welcome the Kangaroos to GMHBA Stadium. The Roos’ competitive run of form came to an end against the Crows last week as they were beaten comprehensively by perhaps the most improved side in the competition, and it’s hard to see them being particularly competitive this weekend either. They’re beginning to show some small signs which are worth being optimistic about, but don’t expect too much good to come out of this game for North Melbourne.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cats to win$1.06
Under 171.5 total match points$1.91
Cats -48.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: J.Bews, S.De Koning, Z.Guthrie HB: J.Henry, E.Ratugolea, T.Stewart C: I.Smith, P.Dangerfield - C, M.Duncan HF: O.Henry, G.Rohan, T.Stengle F: T.Atkins, T.Hawkins, B.Close FOLL: R.Stanley, M.Blicavs, T.Bruhn I/C: J.Kolodjashnij, M.Holmes, Z.Tuohy, G.Miers

North Melbourne North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A.Corr, G.Logue, B.McKay HB: M.Bergman, D.Tucker, L.McDonald C: E.Ford, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott HF: J.Simpkin - C, C.Coleman-Jones, J.Stephenson F: C.Zurhaar, N.Larkey, T.Thomas FOLL: T.Goldstein, H.Sheezel, G.Wardlaw I/C: L.Shiels, P.Curtis, W.Phillips, J.Ziebell

Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows

What a big game this one is. The Bombers and the Crows sit side by side just inside the top eight in eighth and seventh respectively, and while the winner will solidify their spot inside it, the loser will almost certainly tumble outside. The Bombers enter the game on the back of consecutive losses, but they didn’t exactly lose any fans last weekend when they went agonisingly close to breaking the Power’s then 11-game winning streak. The Crows, meanwhile, bounced back from a heartbreaking loss of their own against the Magpies to wallop the Kangaroos by over ten goals, boosting their percentage to a very impressive 119.6% in the process. As good as the Crows have been this year, however, one persistent criticism has been their inability to travel, particularly to Victoria. In fairness their latest trip there saw them lose by just two points to Collingwood in a high quality game, but their overall record on the road is still 1-5, with that solitary victory having come by just three points against the Hawks. That alone is reason enough to tip the Bombers after their impressive performance last weekend, and in a tight game the home team can get the chocolates that they badly need.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Bombers to win$1.83
Bombers 1-39$2.50
Bombers -2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: A.McGrath, B.Zerk-Thatcher, J.Laverde HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, K.Langford C: N.Martin, Z.Merrett - C, D.Heppell HF: S.Durham, S.Weideman, J.Caldwell F: M.Guelfi, P.Wright, J.Stringer FOLL: A.Phillips, D.Parish, A.Perkins I/C: B.Hobbs, W.Snelling, J.Kelly, J.Menzie

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, J.Butts, N.Murray HB: M.Hinge, M.Michalanney, W.Milera C: C.Jones, J.Dawson - C, N.McHenry HF: J.Rachele, D.Fogarty, L.Pedlar F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, B.Keays I/C: J.Worrell, J.Soligo, R.Thilthorpe, R.Sloane

Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues

The cluster of teams in the middle of the ladder in which the Bombers and the Crows are embroiled also includes the Dockers and the Blues, who will conclude Round 17 of the AFL season in another important game. They’re both on the outside of the top eight looking in and with plenty of work to do to make their way inside, but a win here would go a long way. The Dockers would draw level on points with the loser of Essendon and Adelaide with a win, though after losing three of their last four they’ll need to find something they’ve been lacking in recent weeks to knock off the resurgent Blues. Carlton, after a disastrous year, have finally found some form, winning their last two games by ten goals each to keep themselves in with an outside chance of playing finals. But like the Dockers, they can hardly afford to slip up. This should be a tight, tense affair which may well go down to the wire, but the Dockers can just sneak over the line on their home turf.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dockers to win$1.72
Dockers 1-25$3.40
Dockers -4.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce - C, H.Young HB: E.Hughes, L.Ryan, J.Clark C: L.Henry, C.Serong, J.Aish HF: J.Treacy, L.Jackson, M.Walters F: S.Switkowski, J.Amiss, L.Schultz FOLL: S.Darcy, A.Brayshaw, J. O’Meara I/C: M.Frederick, N. Erasmus, M.Johnson, B.Walker

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, J.Boyd HB: N.Newman, M.McGovern, A.Saad C: B.Acres, P.Cripps - C, S.Walsh HF: J.Silvagni, C.Curnow, J.Martin F: L.Fogarty, H.McKay, D.Cuningham FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, S.Docherty I/C: A.Cincotta, M.Kennedy, E.Curnow, M.Owies

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