AFL 2024 Round 17 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

With just two months left in the home and away season, it’s moving time in the AFL. While the Swans have established a nearly unassailable lead at the top of the ladder and the Blues look pretty cosy nestled in below them, just a game and a half separates the Dockers in 3rd from the Hawks in 13th, so it’s safe to say there is plenty of scope for change over the coming few weeks. This weekend’s action starts off with a bang between the Magpies and Bombers, a matchup which always draws plenty of attention but which will likely have even more spice than usual given both of those sides find themselves in the aforementioned glut of teams in the middle of the ladder. Later in the round, the Power host the Bulldogs, the Cats take on the Hawks and the Giants play the Blues in Sydney, all three of which are games that will have a significant impact on the fortunes of both the teams involved in them, and the teams around them. Below, we take a detailed look at all of those games, as well as the rest set to take place over the course of Round 17.   

The AFL generally looks to schedule big games for Thursday or Friday night to open up each round of action, and this is about as big as it gets for a number of reason. The Magpies and the Bombers, two of the oldest teams and biggest rivals in the league, generally draw close to 90,000 through the gates regardless of the circumstances. This time around, they find themselves in 4th and 6th on the ladder, separated by just half a game and each well and truly in the mix for the top four. But on the other side of the coin, just a game (or a game and a half in the Bombers’ case) separates them from the Hawks way back in 13th, so missing the finals is a very real possibility too – particularly for the Bombers, who are just starting to wobble. What’s more, the last time these two sides met was on one of the more memorable ANZAC Day clashes we’ve ever had, a game which ended in an 85-all draw in front of more than 93,000 spectators.  
 
Both teams also come into this game on the back of a loss, the Bombers having been beaten by 45 points by the Cats and the Magpies losing by 11 points to the Suns, having conceded two late goals after working their way back into the lead late in that game. For the Bombers, it was the third loss in four games, and the uptick in losses which many predicted after they managed to lock themselves into second spot just a few weeks ago has very much arrived. The Magpies, meanwhile, have been very good ever since their slow start, though their loss last weekend was their second in four weeks, and with a draw before that and one of those wins coming by just a point to the Kangaroos, it’s safe to say they are not exactly firing on all cylinders. Every game in the run home will be of the utmost importance to both these teams, and with the two in a similar position this is one of the biggest games of the season to date for both of them. But while the Bombers find themselves just clear of their rivals in 4th, the Magpies are the better team and will likely continue to rise while the Dons fall as the season wears on. Essendon gave a great account for themselves the last time these two sides met, but while they can keep this competitive, the Maggies should be too good.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$1.53
	Magpies -10.5	$1.91
	Magpies 16+	$2.08

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, O. Markov HB: W. Hoskin-Elliott, J. Howe, I. Quaynor C: S. Sidebottom, S. Pendlebury, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, B. Mihocek, N. Daicos F: L. Schultz, P. Lipinski, B. Frampton FOLL: D. Cameron, J. Crisp, J. De Goey I/C: F. Macrae, N. Kreuger, J. Richards, L. Sullivan, H. Harrison EMG: R. McInnes, T. Jiath, C. Dean

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: J. Kelly, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: X. Duursma, S. Durham, A. Perkins HF: M. Guelfi, H. Jones, N. Hind F: J. Stringer, P. Wright, K. Langford FOLL: T. Goldstein, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: S. Draper, J. Gresham, N. Martin, D. Heppell, D. Shiel EMG: B. Hobbs, N. Caddy, A. Davey Jnr

Saturday’s first game won’t attract quite the crowd nor the interest of its predecessor the night before, but there is plenty on the line for the Suns when they head to Marvel Stadium to take on the Kangaroos. As they seem to be most years at around this time, Gold Coast is in the mix to play finals, but with 11 teams jostling for probably six spots they are going to have their work cut out. If they’re to finally break their finals hoodoo and appear in September, this is a game that they simply have to win, and after last week’s performance there is no reason to think that they won’t. Following consecutive defeats they were excellent against the reigning Premiers, and fought off a late surge to ultimately win by 11 points. Winning away from home, however, has not come so easy for them, and with the Kangaroos having turned a little bit of a corner in recent weeks this is far from a guaranteed win for the Suns.  
 
North Melbourne have won just a solitary game all year but their last month has been probably their best in four years. It started with their first win of the year up against the Eagles, and though they have lost all three games since then, those defeats have been by a combined total of just 21 points against three tough opponents. They lost to the Magpies by one point, the Demons by three and last week the Bulldogs by 17, and the Suns in Melbourne is probably an easier prospect than each of those three games. If Gold Coast make the trek down to Melbourne expecting an easy win they will be in for a rude shock against a renewed Kangaroos outfit. But while they will have to work for their spoils, with so much on the line the Suns simply need to win this one to show they are capable of playing finals. After a tight opening half, they can flex their muscle to secure an important win and potentially jump inside the top eight.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Suns to win	$1.40
	Suns 1-39	$2.20
	Kangaroos +8.5 first half	$1.88

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, T. Pink HB: J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald - C C: D. Tucker, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF: T. Powell, B. Teakle, E. Ford F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, L. Shiels, J. Simpkin I/C: C. Taylor, C. McKercher, Z. Fisher, W. Phillips, K. Dawson EMG: R. Hardeman, T. Sellers, R. Hansen Jr

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, M. Andrew, C. Ballard HB: S. Flanders, W. Powell, B. Uwland C: W. Graham, T. Miller - C, S. Clohesy HF: D. Swallow, S. Day, T. Berry F: B. Long, B. King, J. Lukosius FOLL: N. Moyle, N. Anderson, M. Rowell I/C: N. Holman, A. Sexton, B. Ainsworth, B. Humphrey, J. Jeffrey EMG: B. Fiorini, S. Lemmens, D. Macpherson

The first of three Saturday games between two potential finalists will see the Power host the Bulldogs in a high stakes matchup at Adelaide Oval. The Power have been on the receiving end of plenty of criticism this year, at times justified, and if they fail to make the finals – or even if they suffer an early exit – then the calls for Ken Hinkley’s head will reach fever pitch. But on the other side of the coin, they are just half a game from third place, and with a couple of very winnable games to come after this one could easily find themselves in the top four very soon. If Hinley’s reaction to his team’s two point win over the Saints last week is anything to go by, he is well aware of the importance of every game in the run home, and that is only amplified this weekend against a team in a similar position to them.  
 
The Doggies weren’t at their absolute best last weekend when beating the Kangaroos by 17 points, but they did what they had to do to extend a run of close to two weeks of uncharacteristically consistent form. Having won three of their last four they are now right on the edge of the top eight, and with the third best percentage in the league they could rise very rapidly up the ladder over the coming weeks. Travelling to Adelaide to take on the Power is not typically an easy task, but Port have not been nearly as dangerous an opponent there for a few weeks now, and have lost their last two games at home by 36 points to the Blues and 79 points to the Lions. The Bulldogs are a rung or two below those teams, but they have been playing really well for some time now. This could be a really tight game, but the Dogs are playing well enough to win it and can jump into the top eight with a hard-fought victory.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.80
	Bulldogs +2.5	$1.91
	Bulldogs 1-39	$2.35

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: K. Farrell, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: J. Burgoyne, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, C. Rozee - C, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, W. Rioli F: Z. Butters, O. Lord, M. Georgiades FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, J. Mead I/C: O. Wines, J. Finlayson, W. Lorenz, Q. Narkle, J. Sinn EMG: J. McEntee, D. Williams, D. Visentini

Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, L. Jones, B. Williams HB: L. Bramble, J. O’Donnell, B. Dale C: H. Gallagher, A. Treloar, R. Sanders HF: C. Weightman, A. Naughton, J. Macrae F: J. Ugle-Hagan, M. Bontempelli - C, R. West FOLL: T. English, E. Richards, T. Liberatore I/C: O. Baker, S. Darcy, J. Freijah, R. Lobb, L. Vandermeer EMG: C. Daniel, B. Khamis, A. Scott

• The Swans have won 8 of their past 11 games by at least 26 points, so a 22.5 point line against the Saints seems very much within their grasp.
• The Bombers have not beaten a team that is currently in the top eight all year, an ignominious honour they share only with the Kangaroos.  
• The Blues have won each of their past five games by at least 26 points, while the Giants are 3-7 in their past ten.  

Multi of the Week

The Cats and the Hawks for many years enjoyed one of the best rivalries in modern history, and while that has fizzled in the last few years with the Hawks struggling and the Cats predominantly up the top of the ladder, the gap between the two is shrinking once again. Though Geelong sits in 5th and Hawthorn back in 13th, these two teams are separated by only one game, and the form of the Hawks over the past few weeks is a hell of a lot better than that of the Cats. After a hot start to the season Geelong have struggled for the past couple of months, losing six of their last eight, but they put in their best performance in two months last week en route to a 45-point win over the Bombers.  
 
Hawthorn, meanwhile, have gone in the opposite direction. While Geelong was winning their first five games of the season, they lost their first five, but have won seven of their last eight games with the only loss coming by one point to the Power, There have been a couple of easy wins thrown in there, but they have also knocked off the Giants and Lions within the past month, so their form certainly isn’t just a product of a friendly fixture. They are a genuine finals contender and if they win this could jump all the way inside the top eight, and they are more than capable of doing just that. Expect them to give the Cats a serious scare on Saturday afternoon, but Geelong did seem to recapture a bit of their pizazz last weekend, and can fend off a plucky Hawks outfit in a tight and entertaining affair.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Cats to win	$1,58
	Cats 1-39	$2.30
	Cats 1-24	$3.30

Predicted Squads

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: L. Humphries, T. Stewart, Z. Guthrie C: Z. Tuohy, M. Holmes, O. Dempsey HF: B. Close, J. Cameron, G. Miers F: T. Stengle, O. Henry, G. Rohan FOLL: M. Blicavs, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Atkins I/C: J. Bowes, C. Guthrie, M. Duncan, M. Knevitt, M. O’Connor EMG: R. Stanley, B. Parfitt, C. O’Sullivan

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Impey, S. Frost, J. Scrimshaw HB: K. Amon, J. Sicily - C, W. Day C: H. Morrison, J. Worpel, D. Moore HF: M. D’Ambrosio, J. Gunston, M. Lewis F: J. Ginnivan, M. Chol, B. Hardwick FOLL: L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Jiath I/C: J. Weddle, C. Nash, C. Mackenzie, C. Macdonald, N. Watson EMG: J. Ward, F. Maginness, J. Serong

It took six weeks for any team to knock off the Giants this season, but when the Blues beat them by 19 points it sent the AFL’s latest team into a spiral from which they have not yet recovered. Inclusive of that game, the Giants are just 3-7 in their last ten games, and courtesy of a 16-point defeat at the hands of Adelaide last weekend have now fallen all the way down to 10th spot. Theoretically their best is still good enough to match it with most teams in the league, but they haven’t shown that for some time. They will need to if they’re to break out of their losing slump this weekend.  
 
While the Giants have been tumbling the Blues have been doing the exact opposite, with five consecutive wins seeing them rise to second place. Though they’re still two games behind the Swans, they also have a game and a half buffer over third and look to be establishing themselves as clearly the best challenger to Sydney this year. They have won every game in this five-week stretch by at least four goals and their last two by 60+, last week running away from the Tigers after a competitive first half to win by 61 points. The Giants in Sydney should pose a much sterner test and if they can recapture their best this will be a really good game, but the way that both of these teams playing, it’s really difficult to see any result but another Carlton victory on Saturday night.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.67
	Blues -7.5	$1.91
	Blues 16+	$2.40

Predicted Squads

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, J. Buckley, H. Himmelberg HB: L. Whitfield, L. Aleer, L. Ash C: H. Perryman, T. Green, F. Callaghan HF: B. Daniels, J. Riccardi, J. Peatling F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, T. Bedford FOLL: K. Briggs, S. Coniglio, J. Kelly I/C: C. Ward, X. O’Halloran, H. Thomas, A. Cadman, I. Cumming EMG: R. Angwin, T. McMullin, C. Brown

Carlton Blues: B: L. Cowan, J. Weitering, J. Boyd HB: A. Saad, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: L. Fogarty, H. McKay, Z. Williams F: E. Hollands, C. Curnow, M. Owies FOLL: T. De Koning, S. Walsh, A. Cerra I/C: B. Kemp, M. Kennedy, A. Cincotta, O. Fantasia, G. Hewett EMG: C. Marchbank, J. Motlop, M. Pittonet

Saturday night’s other game represents a terrific opportunity for the surging Dockers to further establish their spot in the top four when they host the 17th placed Tigers in Perth. Fremantle have been quietly going about their business all season long, rarely putting in a poor performance, but they certainly got the attention of the football world last weekend when they handed the Swans their second loss for the season and their first in Sydney. They may have crept over the line by just a point and benefitted from a Logan McDonald shank after the siren, but it was a deserved victory and regardless of the result, showed what this team is capable of.  
 
Incidentally, they play the only other team to have beaten the Swans all year in the Tigers, though that result was much more of an anomaly than last week’s Fremantle win. The Tiges’ win over the Swans was one of just two so far in what has been a pretty miserable season. The league’s most recent dynasty has well and truly fallen, though this year has been largely a write-off due to the unprecedented number of injuries Richmond has suffered – not that they would exactly be contenders regardless. The Tigers have been competitive for large periods of the year without winning but have been beaten soundly in their last couple of games, last week going down by ten goals to the Blues after a really competitive first half. They don’t often give in easily and will likely make Fremantle work for their spoils early in this one, but the Dockers will make it really hard for the Tigers’ struggling forward line to score, and they should be able to waltz to a pretty comfortable victory by game’s end.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers 1-39	$2.60
	Tigers +22.5 first half	$1.90
	Under 165.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Fremantle Dockers: B: H. Chapman, J. Draper, B. Cox HB: C. Wagner, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, N. Fyfe, H. Young HF: S. Sturt, L. Jackson, M. Frederick F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, S. Switkowski FOLL: S. Darcy, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw – C I/C: B. Banfield, M. Johnson, J. O’Meara, J. Aish, B. Walker EMG: N. Erasmus, P. Voss, E. Hughes

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, N. Balta HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, L. Baker, K. McIntosh HF: R. Mansell, J. Graham, S. Green F: S. Bolton, T. Dow, J. Koschitzke FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, T. Taranto, J. Hopper I/C: T. Sonsie, K. McAuliffe, J. Short, S. Banks, J. Blight EMG: T. Dow, K. Smith, N. Cumberland

The Demons are in desperate, desperate need of a win, and surely they can get it this Sunday. A top four finisher for the past three years and one of the Premiership favourites until a few weeks ago, they have fallen off a cliff over the past couple of months and now find themselves needing a significant turnaround just to play finals. They have won just two of their last seven games and those were against the Saints and the Kangaroos, and one of those losses came against the Eagles relatively comfortably. But last weekend they did show some signs that a good team is still buried in among that bad form somewhere, very nearly knocking off the Lions up in Brisbane.  
 
The Eagles, meanwhile, in a year in which they have shown some much-needed improvement, are beginning to flounder once again. They’ve lost five in a row since they beat the Dees, the latest of which was a really poor ten-goal loss to the Hawks in Perth in which they managed just four goals. Even when they were playing better a few weeks ago, the Eagles were struggling outside of Melbourne, and with their form now regressing it’s hard to see them winning too many, if any, outside of Perth. Melbourne are a long way from their best at the moment, but with just a game separating them from 5th their season is far from over, and they can notch up a relatively comfortable – and very important – victory on Sunday afternoon.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons -33.5	$1.90
	Demons 40+	$2.20
	Demons 25+	$1.55

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: J. Lever, S. May, J. McVee HB: C. Salem, A. Tomlinson, T. Rivers C: A. Neal-Bullen, C. Windsor, K. Tholstrup HF: K. Chandler, H. Petty, E. Langdon F: K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, J. van Rooyen FOLL: M. Gawn - C, J. Viney, C. Oliver I/C: T. McDonald, T. Sparrow, D. Turner, J. Bowey, A. Moniz-Wakefield EMG: B. Laurie, M. Jefferson, T. Woewodin

West Coast Eagles: B: J. Rotham, T. Barrass, T. Cole HB: L. Duggan - C, J. McGovern, B. Hough C: C. Chesser, T. Kelly, R. Ginbey HF: T. Brockman, J. Waterman, J. Cripps F: L. Ryan, O. Allen, J. Darling FOLL: B. Williams, E. Yeo, H. Reid I/C: A. Gaff, J. Hunt, A. Witherden, J. Jones, Z. Trew, J. Williams EMG: R. Maric, H. Edwards, J. Hutchinson

The Saints have had a really disappointing year and it has become painfully apparent, if it wasn’t already, that they just don’t have the cattle currently to be particularly relevant at the moment. Matters were made even worse during the week when perhaps the most talented player on their list, Max King, was ruled out for the season with a PCL injury, and his absence will leave a massive hole in their forward line. The Saints have been okay over the past month, winning a couple of games before losing tight ones to the Lions and then the Power, but this will be a challenge of a whole different kind.  
 
The Swans are clearly the best team in the league, and coming off just their second loss of the year they will likely come out swinging this weekend. In what has been a rarity this year, they were matched throughout the game by the Dockers last Saturday, though they did still have a chance to either win or draw the game with a long-range Logan McDonald shot after the siren. He shanked it and they lost by a point, but disappointing though that loss was in the moment it’s not likely to have too major an impact on their season. They are sitting in top spot by two games and plenty of percentage, and another game and a half clear of third, so barring a catastrophe a top two spot – and potential road to the Grand Final without having to leave Sydney – is theirs for the taking. They should be able to further cement that with a big win this Sunday.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.30
	Swans -22.5	$1.91
	Swans 40+	$2.90

Predicted Squads

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, C. Wilkie, A. Schoenmaker HB: R. Bonner, N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Sinclair C: M. Phillipou, M. Windhager, M. Wood HF: D. Butler, L. Henry, M. Owens F: J. Higgins, M. King, A. Caminiti FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, H. Clark I/C: S. Ross, P. Dow, D. Wilson, C. Sharman, J. Webster EMG: Z. Jones, R. Byrnes, T. Campbell

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe - C, T. McCartin, L. Melican HB: O. Florent, J. Lloyd, N. Blakey C: J. McInerney, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: H. McLean, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, B. Campbell, S. Wicks, J. Jordon, R. Fox EMG: C. Cleary, L. McAndrew, A. Francis

The Lions are finally back in the top eight, and they will not be intending to leave it again this year. They’ve had to work their way into the season after a slow start and while dealing with a number of long-term injuries along the way, but they are kicking into gear as we go and have now won four games on the trot in an impressive patch of form. After beating the Bulldogs, Saints and then Power in succession, they were well and truly matched by the Demons last weekend but managed to hold on to a five-point victory – their eighth of the season. That places them half a game ahead of 13th but just a game behind 5th, and with the ladder as close as it is, their percentage of 121% - the best in the league behind the Swans – will likely come in very handy as teams jostle for spots in the eight in a couple of months’ time. Top four is still very much in the equation for last year’s Grand Finalists, and they can move a step closer to that goal with another win this weekend.  
 
Like the Lions, the Crows haven’t been at their best this year, but while Brisbane looks likely to salvage their own season, 2024 is done and dusted from a finals perspective for Adelaide. They did actually put in a solid display last weekend when they beat a sputtering Giants by 16 points, but that came after three consecutive losses. Similar to last year, the Crows have not been particularly good away from home this year, with only two wins outside of Adelaide and one of those coming against the Kangaroos, so to win in Brisbane they will need to play out of their skin. Last time these two met, back in May, they played out a thrilling draw at Adelaide Oval, but with this one back in Brisbane and with the Lions having hit their straps, the home side should be too good.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.28
	Lions -28.5	$1.91
	Lions 25+	$1.75

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, D. Joyce, R. Lester HB: C. McKenna, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich C: J. Fletcher, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: C. Ah Chee, J. Daniher, L. Morris FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: K. Lohmann, W. Ashcroft, Z. Bailey, B. Reville, D. Wilmot EMG: D. Robertson, D. Fort, S. Brain

Adelaide Crows: B: N. Murray, J. Butts, M. Hinge HB: M. Michalanney, M. Keane, L. Nankervis C: B. Dowling, J. Dawson - C, L. Sholl HF: B. Cook, D. Fogarty, J. Rachele F: I. Rankine, T. Walker, B. Keays FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, S. Berry I/C: J. Soligo, W. Hamill, L. Murphy, E. Himmelberg, C. Jones EMG: L. Gollant, J. Borlase, Z. Taylor

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