AFL 2024 Round 18 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

With the majority of the teams in the league separated by only three games and all vying for spots from 2nd through to 8th, it’s safe to say that there will be a lot riding on most games over the remaining couple of months of the home and away season. This weekend is no exception, with five of Round 18’s nine games involving two teams locked in that logjam. It kicks off with a pivotal clash between the Magpies and Cats on Friday night, while other significant games include the Bulldogs vs Blues on Saturday afternoon, the Demons vs Bombers that night, and the Suns vs the Power on Sunday. Take a look at our detailed match previews for all nine games set to take place over the course of the weekend below.  

The Magpies have spent much of the year climbing their way up the ladder after a slow start to the year, but just when they looked destined to jump inside the top four they have hit a snag. It started when they were forced to climb back from 54 points down against the Kangaroos to win by just a point, and after losing to the Suns a fortnight ago they were beaten for the second time in a row by the Bombers last Friday night. That loss saw them fall outside the top eight, but with so little separating them from so many teams around them things could change very quickly, particularly given that they will this Friday face one of those teams. 

The Cats are a game further ahead and currently find themselves in fifth after a couple of impressive wins over the past fortnight. Following their heavy defeat of the Bombers, they thoroughly outplayed a Hawks’ side which had been in some of the best form in the league for a couple of months, demolishing them to the tune of 51 points. They have been back to the form which they displayed at the beginning of the year over these last two weeks, but the Magpies at the MCG will not present an easy challenge. These two teams have both been up and down at various points this season; the Cats started significantly better while the Magpies’ form through the middle of the season was far superior, but over the past two weeks the needle has tilted back in Geelong’s favour. This looks like as much of a toss of the coin as any game this weekend, and could very easily go either way. Expect this to be a tight, contested game played in front of a huge crowd with a finals-like atmosphere, but the Magpies can take advantage of the Cats’ lack of depth in the midfield and record a much-needed victory.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Magpies to win	$2.05
	Magpies +3.5	$1.91
	Magpies 1-39	$2.55

Predicted Squads

Collingwood Magpies: B: B. Maynard, D. Moore - C, I. Quaynor HB: J. Noble, J. Howe, O. Markov C: S. Sidebottom, S. Pendlebury, J. Daicos HF: B. Hill, A. Johnson, L. Schultz F: J. Richards, P. Lipinski, B. Frampton FOLL: D. Cameron, J. De Goey, N. Daicos I/C: N. Kreuger, J. Crisp, W. Hoskin-Elliott, H. Harrison, N. Long EMG: F. Macrae, R. McInnes, L. Sullivan

Geelong Cats: B: J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij HB: M. Duncan, T. Stewart, Z. Guthrie C: Z. Tuohy, M. Holmes, O. Dempsey HF: T. Stengle, G. Rohan, G. Miers F: B. Close, S. Neale, J. Cameron FOLL: M. Blicavs, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Atkins I/C: J. Bowes, S. Mannagh, L. Humphries, O. Henry, M. Knevitt EMG: J. Bews, J. Clark, R. Stanley

The Hawks’ dream run finally came to an end at the hands of the Cats last weekend, as they were handed their first defeat in five weeks and their first defeat by more than one point since April. Impressive as they have been over the past couple of months, that game spelt the beginning of a really tough patch of games which lasts for another five weeks, continuing this weekend when they take on the Dockers. Fremantle just keep going from strength to strength, and while not too much can be gleaned from wins over the Tigers at the moment, their 51-point victory on Saturday night saw them further cement their position in second spot. And with the Blues losing to the Giants, second is now just half a game away and could easily be theirs by the end of this weekend. But on the flip side of the coin, the Dockers are just a game ahead of 7th and two-and-a-half ahead of the Hawks way back in 13th, so they can’t afford to take their foot of the pedal.  
 
A couple of months ago this would not have loomed as the most exciting of matchups, but it’s now among the most intriguing of this weekend. Hawthorn, as everyone knows, tends to grow an extra leg down in Tasmania, but they might need two of them against the Dockers. It’s set to be a chilly one in Launceston, but this contest should be the exact opposite, with two teams that have been playing great footy for an extended period going head to head in a game with plenty on the line. But the Hawks, for the first time in a long time, showed a little vulnerability last weekend – something which is to be expected given their stage of development. As impressive as they have been they are still a young team; Fremantle, in contrast, is increasingly proving themselves as ready to compete at the pointy end of September, and if they’re to further establish their Premiership credentials, they need to be winning this game.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$1.74
	Dockers -4.5	$1.91
	Dockers 1-39	$2.55

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Scrimshaw, S. Frost, K. Amon HB: C. Jiath, J. Weddle, M. D’Ambrosio C: J. Impey, C. Mackenzie, C. Nash HF: B. Hardwick, J. Newcombe, S. Mitchell F: L. Breust, C. Dear, J. Gunston FOLL: L. Meek, W. Day, D. Moore - C I/C: M. Chol, C. Macdonald, N. Watson, J. Worpel, H. Morrison EMG: M. Ramsden, J. Serong, C. Wingard

Fremantle Dockers: B: H. Chapman, B. Cox, J. Draper HB: C. Wagner, L. Ryan, J. Clark C: J. Sharp, N. Fyfe, J. O’Meara HF: S. Sturt, P. Voss, M. Frederick F: J. Treacy, J. Amiss, S. Switkowski FOLL: L. Jacson, C. Serong - C, A. Brayshaw I/C: B. Banfield, H. Young, J. Aish, M. Walters, M. Johnson EMG: E. Hughes, M. Taberner, K. Worner

The Swans were always going to lose at some point, but nobody would have predicted the two consecutive defeats that they have suffered over the past fortnight, particularly with one of those coming against the Saints. After their thrilling one-point defeat against the Dockers, in which Logan McDonald had a chance to either win or tie the game from long range after the siren, they appeared set to bounce straight back when they jumped out to a big lead over the Saints. Instead, the home side charged back into the game to take the lead late, and lo and behold the fate of the match ended up once again in the hands of McDonald, who had a shot from 50 metres out, straight in front with a minute to go to give the Swans the lead. He struck it a hell of a lot better than he did the shot the week prior but tugged it just slightly, and the Saints hung on to win by two points and resign the Swans to a second straight loss. But even with those defeats, they sit on top of the ladder by two games and a whole lot of percentage, and with a game in Sydney against the Kangaroos they shouldn’t have too many problems getting back on the winners’ list this Saturday.  
 
Of course, the Kangaroos have been really good over the past five weeks since winning their first game of the season, and last weekend got some reward for effort with an impressive defeat of the Suns to drag themselves off bottom spot on the ladder. They are now 2-3 in their last five, with those defeats coming by one point to the Magpies, three points to the Demons and 17 points to the Bulldogs, so it’s safe to say that they are far from the easybeats they were in the first half of the season. But despite that improved form, a trip to the SCG is the toughest in football. The Kangaroos’ impressive young midfield will have their hands full against that of the Swans, even if Isaac Heeney does miss with suspension, and the home side should be able to win this relatively comfortably.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Kangaroos +48.5	$1.90
	Swans 1-39	$3.00
	Over 174.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe - C, T. McCartin, L. Melican HB: O. Florent, J. Lloyd, N. Blakey C: E. Gulden, Ch. Warner, J. McInerney HF: J. Jordon, L. McDonald, T. Adams F: T. Papley, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, C. Mills, J. Rowbottom I/C: B. Campbell, R. Fox, S. Wicks, H. McLean, M. Roberts EMG: C. Cleary, L. McAndrew, A. Francis

North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A. Corr, C. Comben, Z. Fisher HB: J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C: D. Stephens, L. Davies-Uniacke, C. McKercher HF: D. Tucker, B. Teakle, E. Ford F: P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL: T. Xerri, T. Powell, J. Simpkin - C I/C: G. Wardlaw, B. Scott, L. Shiels, W. Phillips, K. Dawson EMG: R. Hardeman, C. Lazzaro, T. Pink

• Five of the Blues’ last six games have seen at least 175 points scored, while for the Bulldogs it’s four of their last six. The line for this game is set at 175. 5.  
• The Eagles have lost their last two games by a combined total of 115 points against two inferior teams to the Lions.
• The Tigers have lost their last three games by at least eight goals each, and by an average of 53. 3 points.  

Multi of the Week

Try as they might, the Bulldogs just cannot shake the tag of inconsistency which has defined them for so many years. They have, for the most part, been pretty impressive over the past couple of months, but they failed to give a whimper against a Port Adelaide team which has been in pretty poor form last weekend. They were pummelled from the outset in that game and ultimately went down by eight goals, marking their second defeat by at least 43 points in the past month. At their best they look like a team which could potentially do some damage in September, but the reality is that at the moment they sit at 8-8 and in 11th place, and have a lot of work to do just to get there at all. Their midfield is symptomatic of their issues; dominant at its best but equally capable of being demolished going the other way, and that is exactly what happened last weekend. They cannot afford to play like that again against the likes of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh.  
 
The Blues themselves are coming off a disappointing loss, their first in five weeks, after they fell victim to the return of the orange tsunami. After an eight-goal first quarter the Blues looked set to win their sixth game in a row, but over the next two quarters they conceded 14 goals while kicking just two of their own, and though they came back late they ultimately fell 12 points short of the Giants in an entertaining game. The Blues still find themselves second on the ladder but the gap has closed, and they are now just a game clear of the Power in sixth, meaning a loss here would likely see them tumble. Any game with the Bulldogs is tough to pick given the gap between their best and their worst; if they play well this will be a great game, but if they dish up a performance like last weekend this will be a comfortable win for the Blues. Expect the Dogs to bounce back to an extent, but the strength of the Blues midfield and their twin towers up forward should be good enough to get the job done. 

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Blues to win	$1.52
	Blues 1-39	$2.30
	Over 175.5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, R. Lobb, B. Williams HB: L. Bramble, L. Jones, B. Dale C: H. Gallagher, A. Treloar, E. Richards HF: L. Vandermeer, C. Weightman, J. Macrae F: J. Ugle-Hagan, S. Darcy, R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: N. Coffield, J. Freijah, B. Khamis, L. McNeil, R. Sanders EMG: O. Baker, C. Clarke, C. Daniel

Carlton Blues: B: B. Kemp, J. Weitering, J. Boyd HB: A. Saad, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: M. Kennedy, H. McKay, Z. Williams F: E. Hollands, C. Curnow, L. Fogarty FOLL: T. De Koning, S. Walsh, A. Cerra I/C: L. Cowan, A. Cincotta, M. Cottrell, D. Cuningham, O. Fantasia EMG: G. Hewett, M. Pittonet, C. Marchbank

The Crows and the Saints could hardly be more stuck in no-mans land. Both entered the year with finals aspirations but have fallen a long way short of expectations, currently finding themselves sitting alongside one another on the ladder in 14th and 15th. They are separated by just two points from each other, but there are two games between the Saints and the Hawks in 13th, and two and a half between the Crows in 15th and the Eagles in 16th. The scope for them to move very far on the ladder, clearly, is pretty limited, aside from trading places with each other, which could very easily happen this weekend.  
 
Disappointing as their years have been, both actually come into the game on the back of a reasonable couple of weeks. The Crows beat the Giants a fortnight ago and last weekend, though they were headed from the outset, were able to keep pace with the Lions and ultimately only went down by 11 points. The Saints, meanwhile, bounced back from a tight defeat against the Power a fortnight ago with a thrilling win over the Swans in a performance which, alongside their defeat of the Pies in Round 2, was easily their best of the year. A Swans onslaught through the middle of that game appeared destined to send the Saints to a hefty defeat, but they showed plenty of mettle to work their way back into things. With both these teams reasonably similarly matched, it might be the venue which ends up playing the biggest role in the outcome. Were this game being played in Melbourne I’d be on the Saints, but over in Adelaide, the Crows should be too strong.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Crows to win	$1.50
	Crows -12.5	$1.91
	Crows 1-39	$2.10

Predicted Squads

Adelaide Crows: B: M. Keane, J. Butts, M. Hinge HB: M. Michalanney, N. Murray, B. Smith C: B. Dowling, J. Dawson - C, L. Sholl HF: B. Keays, D. Fogarty, J. Rachele F: R. Thilthorpe, T. Walker, E. Himmelberg FOLL: R. O’Brien, R. Laird, S. Berry I/C: J. Soligo, B. Cook, L. Nankervis, L. Murphy, N. McHenry EMG: C. Jones, C. Burgess, J. Borlase

St. Kilda Saints: B: J. Battle, D. Howard, C. Wilkie HB: J. Sinclair, N. Wanganeen-Milera, J. Webster C: B. Hill, S. Ross, M. Wood HF: R. Byrnes, M. Phillipou, M. Owens F: J. Higgins, T. Membrey, C. Sharman FOLL: R. Marshall, J. Steele - C, L. Henry I/C: H. Clark, D. Butler, D. Wilson, B. Paton, A. Schoenmaker EMG: Z. Jones, T. Campbell, M. Hall

It’s been a while since the Bombers have been better than the Demons, and while the jury is still out, it might not be if they can knock them off this Saturday night. The Bombers have been in the top four for some time now, but given the calibre of side they have been beating it has felt inevitable that they will begin to fall down the ladder at some stage. In fact, prior to last weekend’s game against the Magpies, they were the only team aside from the Kangaroos to have not beaten a team that was inside the top eight heading into Round 17. That all changed last Friday in perhaps their best performance of the year, as they weathered an early Collingwood charge, established a significant third-quarter lead and ultimately held on to win by two goals. This Saturday they face another top four team from last year, but the Demons have fallen drastically over the past couple of months and are now up against it to make the finals.  
 
Christian Petracca is out for the year, Clayton Oliver is a shadow of his former self, and now Max Gawn will miss a couple of games with an ankle injury, leaving their previously dominant midfield group in tatters for this week’s game. Last week they did at least show some signs that the team which has finished top four in the past three consecutive seasons is still in there somewhere, beating the Eagles by nine goals – but it was, of course, only the Eagles. The Bombers are an entirely different proposition, and with the core of their midfield either absent or woefully out of form the Demons will need to pull a rabbit out of a hat to win this one. BUT – while the Bombers are clearly the better team at the moment and deserve plenty of credit for last week’s performance, I’m loathe to entirely write off the Demons just yet. They still have the capacity to be an elite defensive team, and though they are a long way from their best, as a pretty rank outsider in this game they look like decent value to pull out an upset win.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Demons to win	$2.55
	Demons +11.5	$1.91
	Demons 1-39	$3.00

Predicted Squads

Melbourne Demons: B: J. Lever, S. May, J. McVee HB: A. Moniz-Wakefield, T. McDonald, T. Rivers C: T. Woewodin, A. Neal-Bullen, C. Windsor HF: T. Sparrow, J. van Rooyen, E. Langdon F: K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, J. Melksham FOLL: T. Fullarton, J. Viney, C. Oliver I/C: C. Salem, J. Bowey, K. Chandler, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner EMG: A. Tomlinson, B. Laurie, J. Billings

Essendon Bombers: B: J. Ridley, B. McKay, J. Laverde HB: N. Martin, M. Redman, A. McGrath C: X. Duursma, S. Durham, A. Perkins HF: M. Guelfi, H. Jones, N. Hind F: J. Stringer, P. Wright, K. Langford FOLL: S. Draper, J. Caldwell, Z. Merrett - C I/C: D. Shiel, J. Gresham, N. Cox, J. Kelly, N. Caddy EMG: B. Hobbs, N. Bryan, J. Menzie

What an interesting little game this is. Both the Suns and the Power have had up and down seasons, but while Port have won a couple in a row to jump into sixth rid themselves of some of the pressure that was mounting, the Suns have lost three of four and now find themselves back in 12th. The Suns’ latest defeat came by four points at the hands of North Melbourne just a week after they impressively beat the Magpies, and drew the ire of coach Damian Hardwick post-game, who was, it’s safe to say, not thrilled with his team’s inability to perform at remotely the same level away from home as they are in the Gold Coast. They have been tough to beat at home, as they showed against the Pies, but seemingly when they jump on a plane they leave their ability, motivation or both on the Gold Coast. Clearly that is an issue they need to iron out, but for this week at least, they get to return to the stadium where they have played their best footy all year.  
 
The Power, meanwhile, have found form just when they needed to, with a two-point win over the Saints two weeks ago leading into one of their best performances of the season last week against the Bulldogs. In a game which looked like a flip of the coin, they were far, far too good from the outset, ultimately running out eight-goal winners to take their record to 10-6. Ken Hinkley and his team have been subjected to plenty of criticism throughout the course of the year, some of it justified, but they are now just a game behind the Blues in second. On the flip side of the coin, however, they are also just a game ahead of the Dees in 10th, so to say their season is balanced on a knife’s edge is an understatement. They have actually been pretty good on the road of late, and they will likely need to be in this one if the Suns continue to play the way they have most of the year at home. This is a tough game to tip and one which either team could win, but with a rocket from Dimma up their proverbial backsides, the Suns can bounce back with another strong performance at home to keep themselves in touch with the top eight.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Suns to win	$1.65
	Suns 1-39	$2.30
	Suns 1-24	$3.30

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Suns: B: S. Collins, M. Andrew, C. Ballard HB: S. Flanders, W. Powell, B. Uwland C: R. Atkins, W. Graham, S. Clohesy HF: T. Berry, B. King, B. Long F: B. Ainsworth, S. Day, J. Lukosius FOLL: N. Moyle, N. Anderson, M. Rowell I/C: A. Sexton, B. Fiorini, B. Humphrey, D. Swallow, J. Jeffrey EMG: N. Holman, J. Rogers, J. Tsitas

Port Adelaide Power: B: E. Ratugolea, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: L. Evans, A. Aliir, D. Houston C: T. Boak, C. Rozee - C, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, T. Marshall, J. Finlayson F: J. Mead, O. Lord, M. Georgiades FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: O. Wines, J. Burgoyne, La. Jones, K. Farrell, F. Evans EMG: W. Lorenz, Q. Narkle, D. Visentini

The Tigers are officially on the bottom of the ladder, after yet another comfortable loss last weekend just hours after the Kangaroos held off the Suns to record their second win of the season. It has been far from the ideal welcome to the AFL for new coach Adem Yze, who has led the team which was so recently the dominant team in the league for four years to a 2-14 record through his first 16 games. Of course, he has been handed about as tough an initiation as one could ask for, with an unfathomable amount of injuries – mostly long-term – to key players, and not a whole lot can be read into their season as a result. Each of Dion Prestia, Tom Lynch and Dustin Martin are in the mix to make a return, and if two or three of them get back it will obviously make the Tigers a far stronger team. But even if they had their best 22 out there, which they will be far from, it’s unlikely they would be a match for the Giants.  
 
The AFL’s newest team has been in freefall for a couple of months after a blistering start to the season for no apparent reason, but last week’s win over Carlton might just have been the catalyst to get their season back on track. After conceding eight goals in the first quarter it seemed likely that they were destined for yet another disappointing loss, but they switched a flick which they have been unable to find for ten weeks in the second quarter and went on to boot 14 of the next 16 goals, ultimately running out winners by two goals. In such a close season that was a pivotal victory for the Giants, and saw them jump back inside the top eight with their ninth win of the season. They could still finish anywhere from second to 13th, but for this weekend at least they should be moving up the ladder. After seeming to regain their mojo last Saturday against a far better team than Richmond, they should be able to make it two on the trot reasonably comfortably after a competitive first half on Sunday afternoon.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Giants to win	$1.27
	Giants -23.5	$1.91
	Giants 25+	$1.95

Predicted Squads

Richmond Tigers: B: B. Miller, N. Broad, J. Blight HB: N. Vlastuin, T. Brown, D. Rioli C: H. Ralphsmith, L. Baker, K. McIntosh HF: R. Mansell, J. Graham, D. Martin F: S. Bolton, N. Balta, J. Koschitzke FOLL: T. Nankervis - C, J. Hopper, T. Taranto I/C: T. Sonsie, S. Campbell, K. McAuliffe, D. Prestia, J. Short EMG: J. Trezise, S. Green, T. Dow

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: C. Idun, J. Buckley, H. Perryman HB: L. Whitfield, L. Aleer, J. Fonti C: C. Ward, T. Green, I. Cumming HF: B. Daniels, J. Riccardi, A. Cadman F: T. Greene - C, J. Hogan, T. Bedford FOLL: K. Briggs, S. Coniglio, F. Callaghan I/C: H. Himmelberg, J. Peatling, H. Thomas, D. Jones, T. McMullin EMG: L. Keeffe, X. O’Halloran, J. Fonti

The Eagles have shown plenty of improvement at times this year, but the pressure is beginning to mount once again. They have now lost six games on the trot, and by and large those defeats have been getting increasingly worse. Their last two performances, in particular, have been really poor. After kicking just four goals in a ten-goal defeat at the hands of the Hawks, they were again no match for their opposition last weekend as the Demons – who had been woefully out of form themselves – pumped them to the tune of nine goals. They do at least get to return home this weekend, but things don’t exactly get any easier against a Lions team coming into some of their best form of 2024 just when they need to.  
 
Brisbane have now won five games on the trot to jump inside the top eight, their latest an 11-point win over the Crows last weekend. They have the second best percentage in the AFL behind the Swans, and with just a game separating them from the Dockers in third they are very much in the frame to make their way into the top four over the remaining few weeks of the year. The season hasn’t gone exactly to plan for Chris Fagan’s men, but they have been making up for their slow start to the season over the past few weeks and, make no mistake about, are still very much in the Premiership mix. They don’t have the easiest draw over the remainder of the season, but they have the capacity to beat anyone in the league and should be able to make relatively short work of West Coast. They don’t particularly need a percentage boost at this point in time, but with the Blues and Dockers not all that far behind them in that metric it certainly can’t hurt, and they should be able to get exactly that with a big win over the Eagles to conclude Round 18.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions 25+	$1.68
	Lions -30.5	$1.91
	Lions 40+	$2.30

Predicted Squads

West Coast Eagles: B: B. Hough, T. Barrass, A. Witherden HB: T. Cole, J. Rotham, L. Duggan - C C: J. Hunt, E. Yeo, J. Jones HF: L. Ryan, J. Waterman, T. Brockman F: J. Cripps, O. Allen, J. Darling FOLL: B. Williams, H. Reid, T. Kelly I/C: R. Ginbey, C. Chesser, E. Hewett, M. Flynn, J. Hutchinson EMG: H. Johnston, H. Edwards, J. Williams

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, J. Payne, R. Lester HB: D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, C. McKenna C: Z. Bailey, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F: K. Lohmann, J. Daniher, L. Morris FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale - C I/C: C. Ah Chee, W. Ashcroft, J. Fletcher, B. Reville, D. Robertson EMG: D. Fort, D. Joyce, J. Prior

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