NRL 2023 Round 22 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
NRL Betting Tips
NRL 2023 Round 22

Just six rounds remain in the NRL season, and just a game separates 8th spot from 13th. Further up the ladder, just a game separates 3rd from 7th, so it’s safe to say that there is plenty on the line this weekend. It kicks off with an interesting game between the Broncos and Roosters, while the following night the Storm take on the Eels in one of the games of the round. There are pivotal matchups littered all over the weekend, and we’ve previewed each and every one of them below.

Round 22 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Broncos vs RoostersThursday July 27 at 7.50pm$1.37$3.10
Tigers vs Rabbitohs Friday July 28 at 6.00pm$9.00$1.06
Storm vs EelsFriday July 28 at 8.00pm$1.38$3.05
Raiders vs KnightsSaturday July 29 at 3.00pm$1.65$2.25
Dragons vs Sea EaglesSaturday July 29 at 5.30pm$2.60$1.50
Panthers vs SharksSaturday July 29 at 7.35pm$1.17$5.00
Bulldogs vs DolphinsSunday July 30 at 2.00pm$2.45$1.55
Titans vs CowboysSunday July 30 at 4.05pm$3.05$1.38

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters

What a great weekend that was for the Broncos. Facing a stern test against the Rabbitohs with their spot in the top two on the line, this year’s most improved team passed with flying colours, beating one of their fellow Premiership favourites to the tune of 16 points. And, with the Storm going down, the Broncos extended their lead over third place to two games, meaning their ability to secure a home Qualifying Final is now very much in their own hands. Another win this weekend would help even more, and they’ll be confident in their ability to earn it against. But while they’ll go in as comfortable favourites, the Roosters do still have a pulse. It’s been a shocking season for a team that started the year as one of the favourites to win the flag, but a comfortable 36-18 defeat of the Titans last weekend meant that they are just a solitary game outside of the top eight. With teams like the Rabbitohs, Eels, Cowboys and Sharks fighting for those lower spots, the Roosters will be hard-pressed to fight their way in, but they’ve at least put themselves in a position where if they win enough games, a spot in September is still on the cards. Wins against teams like the Broncos, however, will be necessary to achieve it. Last week was a step in the right direction for this beleaguered team and they can at least be competitive this weekend with plenty on the line, but ultimately it’s hard to see them getting over the top of the Broncos.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Broncos 1-12$2.90
Broncos/Broncos half-time/full-time$1.80
Broncos to win$1.37

Predicted Squads

Brisbane BroncosBrisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Deine Mariner 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tom Flegler  9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Brendan Piakura 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Keenan Palasia

Sydney RoostersSydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Joseph Manu 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Jake Turpin 15. Nathan Brown 16. Siua Wong 17. Terrell May

Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

This is one of those games where the Rabbitohs just need to do what they need to do. It’s very hard to see any result but a win for the Bunnies; the Tigers last week confirmed themselves as this year’s likely Wooden Spooners with a loss to fellow cellar-dwellers in the Dragons, falling two games behind 16th with a 3-15 record. They’ve little to play for over the remaining few games of the season, in stark contrast to their opposition this weekend. The Rabbitohs’ loss last weekend to the Broncos was their second in a row and has, incredibly, seen them fall outside of the eight – a strange spot for a team which is equal third favourite for the Premiership to be with just a few games remaining in the season. But games like this are why. The Rabbitohs have a very friendly draw over the last five games, facing only one team currently in the top eight. If they win the games they’re expected to – which will be nearly all of them – they will be playing finals, and it starts this weekend. With so little separating teams from third all the way through to 13th, however, it’s not just wins that are relevant. The Rabbitohs will most likely finish on the same number of wins as at least one other team, so points difference will probably play a pretty key role on where they end up come the end of the home and away season. This presents as a great opportunity to give that number a solid boost. 

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Rabbitohs to win$1.06
Rabbitohs 13+$1.37
Rabbitohs -21.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Wests TigersWests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To'a 4. Tommy Talau 5. Junior Tupou 6. Daine Laurie 7. Brandon Wakeham 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Alex Seyfarth 16. Alex Twal 17. Aitasi James

South Sydney RabbitohsSouth Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray 14. Siliva Havili 15. Jacob Host 16. Tom Burgess 17. Davvy Moale

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels

Following what looms as a potential blowout to kick off Friday night’s proceedings, the Storm will welcome the Eels to Melbourne in a game which will attract a lot more interest than its predecessor. Both the Storm and the Eels are locked in the logjam of teams from third downwards, and both are coming off disappointing losses last weekend. The Storm started well in a game they really had to win, and really should have won, but four tries in 12 minutes either side of half time to the Knights put them at a 12-point disadvantage from which they would never recover. As a result they remain in the top four on points difference alone, and another loss this weekend would almost certainly see them drop at least another place or two on the ladder. The Eels, meanwhile, had an opportunity to solidify their spot in the eight and potentially push for the top four, but as expected it was a grind in Townsville against the Cowboys. The eight-point final margin ultimately flattered them, with two late tries keeping the margin respectable after they went down 24-4 early in the second half. That loss saw them fall behind the Cowboys and into eighth spot, just points difference ahead of the Rabbitohs in ninth and only a game ahead of the Dolphins way back in 13th. It’s safe to say that this is a pretty significant game for both these two sides, and many others around them. Expect plenty of intensity in a game which will have a huge say on where these sides finish come season’s end, but on their home turf, the Storm should be able to get the job done.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Storm 1-12$2.90
Storm/Storm half-time/full-time$1.86
Storm to win$1.38

Predicted Squads

Melbourne StormMelbourne Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Alec MacDonald 17. Tepai Moeroa

Parramatta Eels

Parramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Andrew Davey 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Makahesi Makatoa

  • The Cowboys have won six games in a row by an average of 24.5 points
  • The Bulldogs have won just one of their last six games, and each of those five losses has been by at least 20 points
  • All of the Raiders’ 11 wins this season have come by ten points or less

Multi of the Week

Cowboys to win by 13 points or more$2.35
Dolphins to win by 13 points or more$3.10
Raiders 1-12$3.00
Bet $10 for $218.55 with PlayUp

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights

At long last the Raiders have lost a close game, going down by a point to the Warriors in an enthralling game last weekend. It’s a big blow for the plucky team from the nation’s capital, who would have jumped into third place with a win in that game. Instead, they fell out of the top four, and another loss this weekend could see them go as low as seventh. And while they will no doubt back themselves to take care of the Knights in Canberra, this is not a side that they have the luxury of taking lightly. The Knights seemed close to out of the finals picture a month ago, but they piggybacked off two big wins over the Bulldogs and Knights to last week take out the Storm and make it three on the trot. They stayed in tenth with that win, but moved to within just a solitary point of the top eight and are now very much in the finals hunt, particularly with a number of winnable games to come over the final six rounds. This is one of them. The Raiders will deservedly go in as favourites, but the Knights are capable of giving this a very good shake. Expect them to take it right up to the Raiders, but in yet another close game for Canberra, this week they can sneak over the line for a pivotal win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Raiders 1-12$3.00
Raiders 1-10$3.50
Raiders to win$1.65

Predicted Squads

Canberra RaidersCanberra Raiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joe Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Ata Mariota

Newcastle Knights

Newcastle Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott 14. Kurt Mann 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mathew Croker

St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles

Wins have been few and far between for the Dragons so far this season, but they snared their fifth for the year in a tight game against the Tigers last week to jump out of the bottom two and likely ensure that they will avoid the Wooden Spoon this season. There’s not a lot left to play for but pride this season, but despite that they appear keen to play out the season competitively. If they do bring their best this Saturday evening then this game is not out of their reach, though equally if the Sea Eagles play like they did in the first half last weekend then they will almost certainly be too good. Manly jumped out to a 30-0 lead early in the second half against the Sharks, in Cronulla no less, in a performance which was equal parts impressive for them as it was concerning for the Sharks. The home side subsequently flew home, but fell agonisingly short and ultimately went down by four points. That moved the Sea Eagles to eight wins and just a point outside of the top eight, so despite the loss of Tom Turbo they’re staying in the finals hunt. A win this weekend would see them move even closer. Their penchant for inconsistency means this is no certainty, but if they want to be considered a potential finals team they need to win this game. For the second week in a row, they can earn a key win on the road.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Sea Eagles to win$1.50
Sea Eagles/Sea Eagles half-time/full-time$2.05
Sea Eagles -6$1.87

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra DragonsSt. George Illawarra Dragons: 1.Tyrell Sloan  2. Mat Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Billy Burns 12. Dan Russell 13. Jack de Belin 14. Haele Finau 15. Michael Molo 16. Toby Couchman 17. Jack Bird

Manly Warringah Sea EaglesManly Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Josh Aloiai 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Dean Matterson
15. Aaron Woods 16. Sean Keppie 17. Matt Lodge

Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks

If the Sharks play at their absolute best, then this could be a high quality Saturday night game, but there are plenty of question marks about whether they can muster that up. The Panthers continue to prove that they are the team to beat, last week knocking off the Bulldogs without breaking a sweat to remain on top of the ladder, and now two games clear inside the top two. Things didn’t go quite so well for the Sharks. After being demolished by the Warriors the week prior, they seemingly forgot to show up for the first 45 minutes of their game against the Sea Eagles, going down 30-0. That they scored the next 26 points to get within striking distance was impressive in one way, but the juxtaposition between their first and second half made the former all the more disappointing. They’re now 3-4 in their last seven weeks, but a concerning trend is emerging – those three wins were against the bottom three teams, while the losses all came against teams in the eight or pushing to get into it. The Panthers are very much in that category. It’s impossible to tip against the Panthers in Penrith at the best of times, let alone against a Sharks side which is struggling to compete against good teams. The Panthers should be able to win this one relatively easily to continue their march towards what they hope will be a third consecutive Premiership later this season.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Panthers to win$1.17
Sharks to score 3 or more tries – No$1.65
Panthers -16$1.87

Predicted Squads

Penrith PanthersPenrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Luke Garner

Cronulla-Sutherland SharksCronulla Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Connor Tracey 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Briton Nikora 12. Siosifa Talakai 13. Dale Finucane 14. Cameron McInnes 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Williams 17. Tom Hazelton

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Canterbury Bulldogs vs The Dolphins

The Dolphins are sitting in 13th and have won just one of their last six games, so finals don’t seem particularly likely at this stage, but it is worth noting that they’re only a game outside the top eight and have a very winnable one this weekend. The Bulldogs fell to 16th courtesy of the Dragons’ win last weekend, and a 44-18 loss to the Panthers of their own. That followed a 44-24 loss to the Broncos the week prior, and made it six consecutive games in which they’ve conceded at least 32 points. Those are some pretty big numbers, and though the Dolphins aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse they should be able to find the line plenty throughout the course of this game. If they do, they’ll put themselves right back in the mix for the top eight, particularly with a relatively friendly draw to come over the coming month. Wayne Bennett’s chargers might not be the most talented team in the NRL but they have been super competitive this year, and should be able to capitalise on this massive opportunity to keep their finals hopes alive.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dolphins to win$1.55
Dolphins 13+$2.80
Dolphins -5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Canterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCanterbury Bulldogs : 1. Jake Averillo 2. Blake Wilson 3. Jacob Kiraz 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 11. Jacob Preston 12. Viliame Kikau 13. Corey Waddell 14. Karl Oloapu 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Tevita Pangai Junior 17. Ryan Sutton

DolphinsThe Dolphins: 1. Kodi Nikorima 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow5. Tesi Niu 6. Isaiya Katoa 7. Sean O’Sullivan  8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harrison Graham 10. Kenny Bromwich 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Ray Stone 14. Herman Ese'ese 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Anthony Milford 17. Jarrod Wallace

Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys

It appears that the wheels have fallen off for the Titans, who last weekend lost their fourth game in a row to go from genuine finals contenders all the way down to 14th spot. In fairness to them, they’ve suffered a bit of bad luck along the way, losing three successive games by a combined total of seven points prior to last week’s clash with the Roosters, but it appears that accumulation of losses finally got to them. They were no match for the struggling Roosters, going down 36-18 to take their record to 7-11, so while it’s certainly been a year of improvement for the Titans it doesn’t appear that it will result in a finals berth, barring a significant turnaround. The Cowboys’ season could hardly be more contrasting. After a disastrous first half of the season they looked like no chance of playing finals, but they’ve gone on an absolute tear since to win six in a row and put themselves right back in contention. Last week’s 24-16 win over the Eels was more comfortable than the final score suggested, and saw them leapfrog their opposition to move into seventh spot. They’re the in-form side in the league, and while they’re only a game clear of ninth it’s hard to see them missing out on finals the way that they’re playing, and with the Warriors in third just a game ahead a top four spot seems more likely. With a win this weekend, they can solidify their spot in the eight and put themselves right in the mix for that double chance. An issue for the Cowboys all year has been their performance on the road, which has been nowhere near the level they’ve displayed at home, but they can exorcise some of those demons with a strong win on the Gold Coast this Sunday afternoon.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cowboys to win$1.38
Cowboys 13+$2.40
Cowboys -8.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast TitansGold Coast Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Klese Haas 13. Erin Clark 14. Jayden Campbell 15. Chris Randall 16. Joe Stimson 17. Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui

North Queensland CowboysNorth Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Semi Valemei 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess  11. Luciano Leilua 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Jason Taumalolo 16. Mitch Dunn 17. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown

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