NRL 2023 Round 23 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
NRL Betting Tips
NRL 2023 Round 23

The NRL landscape heading towards the finals continues to change week by week, and last round was no exception. Both the Knights and Sea Eagles made a move towards the eight while the Sharks and Cowboys’ respective spots inside it got more precarious, and with a number of games between teams competing for similar ladder spots this week those changes will continue in Round 23. Friday night will be massive, with the Titans taking on the Warriors before the Panthers host the Storm, while Saturday will see the Cowboys host the Broncos and the Rabbitohs take on the Sharks. There are big games littered all throughout the weekend, so check out our preview of every game of Round 23 below.

Round 23 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Roosters vs Sea EaglesThursday, August 3 at 7.50pm$1.55$2.45
Titans vs WarriorsFriday, August 4 at 6.00pm$2.85$1.42
Panthers vs StormFriday, August 4 at 8.00pm$1.35$3.20
Cowboys vs BroncosSaturday, August 5 at 3.00pm$2.20$1.67
Dolphins vs KnightsSaturday, August 5 at 5.30pm$3.20$1.35
Rabbitohs vs SharksSaturday, August 5 at 7.35pm$1.28$3.70
Eels vs DragonsSunday, August 6 at 2.00pm$1.22$4.30
Raiders vs TigersSunday, August 6 at 4.05pm$1.25$4.00

Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles

If the Roosters’ season was hanging by a thread prior to last weekend, it’s all but over after their loss to the Broncos last week. Theoretically they’re still only two games out of the top eight with five games remaining in the season, but they are not playing nearly well enough to work their way back into any sort of contention. They’ve now lost four of their last five, with their 18-point win against the Titans a fortnight ago looking likely to be more of an outlier than any sort of meaningful return to form. The Sea Eagles, meanwhile, are hanging on to their own slim finals chances on the back of two consecutive wins. Last weekend’s was nothing to write home about – they just warded off the Dragons – but it was a win nonetheless and moved them to within just a solitary point of the top eight. They’re not as good as the teams above them and have a couple of tough games to come, so finals may still be a stretch, but they can keep themselves in the mix and potentially even jump inside the top eight with a win against the odds against a disappointing Roosters side this weekend.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Sea Eagles to win$2.45
Sea Eagles 1-12$3.60
Sea Eagles +4.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Sydney RoostersSydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Joseph Manu 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Siua Wong
12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Jake Turpin 15. Nathan Brown 16. Terrell May 17. Fletcher Baker

Manly Warringah Sea EaglesManly Sea Eagles: 1. Reuben Garrick 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Raymond Vaega 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Toafofoa Sipley 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Matt Lodge 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Dean Matterson 15. Aaron Woods 16. Sean Keppie 17. Ethan Bullemor

Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors

Friday night kicks off with a significant clash between the Titans and the Warriors, the result of which will have significant repercussions for basically third all the way down to 14th. For the Titans, a win is needed to keep them in touch with a top eight, something which they managed to do with a hugely impressive 22-13 win over the rampaging Cowboys last week. They’re still a couple of games out of the eight and will need a terrific end to the season to play finals, but they are, at least, still in the hunt. But the Warriors will not be an easy team to beat. They’ll enter this game on the back of a week off which followed three consecutive wins – and against the Eels, Sharks and Raiders no less. With just a few games to go in the season they’re sitting in third place, but their position there is relatively precarious. They’re still two games away from the top two, but equally are only two games clear of eighth spot, so a few more wins are needed to give them a double chance. Fortunately for them, however, they have a fantastic draw in the run home, with this looming as perhaps the toughest of their last five matches. They should be able to continue their winning ways with another strong victory this Friday night, keeping them right on the heels of the Broncos and the Panthers.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Warriors to win$1.42
Warriors 13+$2.60
Warriors -8.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast TitansGold Coast Titans: 1. Jayden Campbell 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. AJ Brimson 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Joe Stimson 13. Erin Clark 14. Chris Randall 15. Jacob Alick 16. Klese Haas 17. Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui

New Zealand WarriorsNew Zealand Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Dylan Walker 15. Mitch Barnett 16. Bayley Sironen 17. Josh Curran

Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm

In a weekend filled to the brim with huge games, this one looms as the match of the round. The winners of the last three Premierships, one of these two teams has been in the Grand Final in all but one year harking way back to 2015, and that looks unlikely to change this year. The Panthers are continuing to roll along as the best team in the league, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see anyone beating them for what would be their third consecutive Premiership with each passing week. They’ve now won five on the trot and are getting better every week, with last week’s performance an absolutely dominant 28-0 shellacking of the Sharks. The Storm should be looking forward to the hefty challenge which heading to Penrith to face them will be. They bounced back from a disappointing loss a fortnight ago with one of their best performances of the year last week, putting on an offensive clinic en route to a 46-16 victory against the Eels. That kept them in the top four with a 12-7 record, and gave them a lead of one game and plenty of points difference over the Raiders in fifth. If they play like they did last week this should be a cracking game, but it’s near impossible to see anyone beating the Panthers, particularly in Penrith, at the moment. They are the best team in the league defensively by so far it’s not funny, and can put the brakes on the Storm’s offence to record a solid win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Storm to score three tries – No$1.98
Panthers/Panthers half-time/full-time double$1.72
Panthers to win$1.35

Predicted Squads

Penrith PanthersPenrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Matthw Eisenhuth  17. Zac Hosking

Melbourne Storm

Melbourne Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Marion Seve 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Tom Eisenhuth 13. Josh King 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Eliesa Katoa 17. Tepai Moeroa

  • The Panthers have conceded just 236 points this year – the second lowest number in the league is 346. In the past five weeks, they’ve conceded an average of just 12 points per game.
  • The Rabbitohs’ past three games have gone over their points total set for this weekend. For their opponents, the Sharks, the points total has gone over this week’s line six of the last seven games.
  • The Roosters have won just one of their last five games and lost to the Sea Eagles less than a month ago.

Multi of the Week

Storm to score three or more tries – No$1.98
Rabbitohs vs Sharks over 48.5 total match points$1.90
Sea Eagles to win$2.45
Bet $10 for $92.17 with PlayUp

North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos

The fun continues on Saturday with another huge game, this one between two of the in-form teams in the league in the Cowboys and the Broncos. The Cowboys’ incredible run towards the finals and potentially even top four was brought to a screeching halt by the Titans last weekend, who handed them their first loss since May on Sunday afternoon. Had they won that, they would have been in fifth and just a game out of the top four; instead they’re sitting in eighth and just a game clear of 11th. With the ladder so tight they’ll be desperate to turn things around immediately, but they won’t have it all their own way against the Broncos. Brisbane continue to make their case for the Premiership, last week notching up their fourth consecutive win in style against the Roosters to keep pace with the Panthers and remain two games clear in the top two. Their best can certainly win this game, but one thing that the Broncos have yet to prove this year is their ability to beat the top teams, and while the Cowboys might not be that just yet, they are playing as well as anyone. At home in particular North Queensland have been very tough to beat all year – they’re 8-2 on their home turf – and with the form they have behind them, despite their disappointing loss last week, they can notch up a pivotal win on Saturday afternoon.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Cowboys to win$2.20
Cowboys 1-12$3.50
Cowboys +2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

North Queensland CowboysNorth Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Semi Valemei 3. Ben Hampton 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess  11. Luciano Leilua 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville 15. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 16. Jason Taumalolo 17. Heilum Luki

Brisbane Broncos

Brisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars  3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tom Flegler  9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Brendan Piakura 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Keenan Palasia

The Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights

The Dolphins have far exceeded expectations this year, but their papers might just have been stamped last weekend with a heartbreaking one-point loss to the Bulldogs. That was their fifth in six weeks and took their record to 8-11, and with two games and a lot of points differential between them and eighth spot it will take a huge turnaround for them to play finals. For the Knights, the equation is a little more simple. They are coming into their best form of the year at exactly the right time, and a dominant 28-6 win over the Raiders last weekend was their fourth on the trot following a win over the Storm and a couple of big ones over lower teams. That drastic turnaround in form has seen them skyrocket up to ninth spot, and incredibly they’re now only half a game from sixth spot. With a win this weekend, they will jump inside the top eight courtesy of the fact that two of the teams one point ahead of each other are playing in the following game. Travelling hasn’t been the Knights’ forte so far this year, but the team we’ve seen over the past month has been a whole lot better than the version of them we saw throughout the earlier parts of the year. The way they’re playing, they should be far too good for the Dolphins.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Knights to win$1.35
Knights 13+$2.20
Knights -9.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

DolphinsThe Dolphins: 1. Kodi Nikorima 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 4. Valynce Te Whare 5. Tesi Niu 6. Anthony Milford 7. Sean O’Sullivan  8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Herman Ese'ese 14. Isaiya Katoa 15. Josh Kerr 16. Jarrod Wallace 17. Mason Teague

Newcastle KnightsNewcastle Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott 14. Kurt Mann 15. Brodie Jones 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mathew Croker

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Cronulla Sharks

This is another big one. The Rabbitohs and the Sharks are right in the midst of the logjam in the middle of the NRL ladder, sitting sixth and seventh respectively with nine losses. The Bunnies, however, are far better placed to do some damage – they’ve still got a bye up their sleeve, and though they haven’t been at their best over the past month or so, their best is a lot better than that of the Sharks. The Bunnies at least managed to bounce back from a disappointing couple of losses last week, and though they wouldn’t have been thrilled at conceding 18 points to the Tigers that was a whole lot better than what they’ve been doing lately. The Sharks, meanwhile, endured a loss which proved how far off it they really are this year, going down 28-0 against the Panthers in a disheartening defeat. Oddly, the Rabbitohs have a 3-6 record at home and are 8-3 on the road and based on that would be better off were this in Cronulla, but it’s hard to see that trend continuing. On their home turf, they should be able to knock off the Sharks in a high scoring game.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Rabbitohs/Rabbitohs half-time/full-time$1.63
Over 48.5 total match points$1.90
Rabbitohs to win$1.27

Predicted Squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs South Sydney Rabbitohs : 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Jai Arrow  9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Davvy Moale 15. Siliva Havili 16. Jed Cartwright 17. Tom Burgess 

Cronulla-Sutherland SharksCronulla Sharks: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Briton Nikora
12. Wade Graham 13. Cam McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Braden Hamlin-Uele  17. Royce Hunt

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Parramatta Eels vs St. George Illawarra Dragons

After storming up the ladder from the lower reaches of it to put their hat in the ring for not just a finals spot, but potentially the top four, the Eels have gone off the rails over the past month, and that continued last weekend. They were nowhere near it against the Storm, ultimately going down 46-16 to record their third loss in four weeks and fall to 11th with a 10-10 record. They’re still just a game out of the top eight and have a bye up their sleeve though, so finals remains well and truly on the agenda. They do, however, still have to take on both the Broncos and the Panthers away from home, so they need to capitalise on these more winnable games. The Dragons have remained relatively competitive despite having little to play for over the past few matches of the season – in their past three games they’ve won one and lost the other two by ten points or less – but they shouldn’t really be posing too many problems for the Eels this weekend. Expect Parramatta to bounce back from a couple of disappointing losses with a strong victory on their home turf this Sunday.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Eels to win$1.22
Over 47.5 total match points$1.91
Eels -13.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Parramatta EelsParramatta Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Andrew Davey
12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J'maine Hopgood 14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Joey Lussick 17. Ryan Matterson

St. George Illawarra DragonsSt. George Illawarra Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan  2. Mat Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Billy Burns 12. Dan Russell 13. Michael Molo 14. Connor Muhleisen 15. Toby Couchman 16. Zane Musgrove 17. Ryan Couchman

Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers

There are plenty of question marks about how deserving the Raiders are of their spot on the precipice of the top four given the plethora of close wins they’ve enjoyed this year, and they didn’t do a whole lot to keep the doubters at bay with a woeful performance last week. They were annihilated by a Knights side which finds itself outside the top eight, going down 26-0 in just over a half. They managed to stem the bleeding and cross the line themselves to keep the damage to 22 points, but nonetheless it was a dreadful performance for a team trying to hang onto a spot in the top eight and potentially push for top four. Fortunately for them, they get a great opportunity to bounce back this weekend against the worst side in the league. The Tigers have all but locked in the Wooden Spoon with a 3-16 record, and have now gone eight consecutive games without securing a win. The Raiders aren’t exactly world beaters and if they play like they did last weekend even the Tigers could be a sniff, but it's hard to see any result but a win for the home side in this one.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Raiders 1-12$3.15
Over 46.5 total match points$1.91
Raiders to win$1.25

Predicted Squads

Canberra RaidersCanberra Raiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joe Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Ata Mariota

Wests TigersWests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To'a 4. Junior Tupou 5. Charlie Staines 6. Will Smith 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Alex Twal 16. Aitasi James 17. Justin Matamua

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