AFL 2023 Round 24 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

James Salmon
AFL Betting Tips
AFL 2023 Round 24
AFL 2023 Round 24

2023 has been the season that keeps on delivering, and didn’t that continue last week? The goal umpiring controversy which likely determined the result of the Adelaide/Sydney game has unfortunately removed each of Adelaide, Geelong and Essendon from finals contention heading into the last round, but there’s still one spot left to be decided with the Giants and Dogs to battle it out for eighth place. Who plays finals may well come down to the final game of the home and away season when the Blues take on the Giants, while earlier in the round the Bombers take on the Magpies in a Friday night blockbuster, the Lions take on the Saints on Saturday, while the Swans vs Demons is a huge clash on Sunday. We’ve previewed every game set to take place over the final week of the home and away season below.

Round 24 Fixtures

FixturesInfo (AEST)Home OddsAway Odds
Bombers vs MagpiesFriday, August 25 at 7.50pm$4.80$1.18
Kangaroos vs SunsSaturday, August 26 at 1.45 pm$3.40$1.32
Hawks vs DockersSaturday, August 26 at 1.45pm$1.58$2.40
Lions vs SaintsSaturday, August 26 at 4.35pm$1.22$4.30
Cats vs BulldogsSaturday, August 26 at 7.25pm$1.90$1.90
Eagles vs CrowsSaturday, August 26 at 8.10pm$4.60$1.20
Power vs TigersSunday, August 27 at 12.30pm$1.11$6.50
Swans vs DemonsSunday, August 27 at 3.20pm$1.80$2.00
Blues vs GiantsSunday, August 27 at 6.10pm$1.50$2.60

Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies

The AFL would have been hoping this game was one for the ages when they set the fixture for Round 24 a few weeks ago, with the Bombers potentially playing to secure a spot in the finals and the Magpies fighting for their own at the top of the ladder. The latter of those has come to fruition; a loss for Collingwood in here would not just mean four defeats in their last five weeks, but it would also open the door for the Lions to jump over them into top spot. The Bombers, however, have bungled their finals chances, with a humiliating 126-point defeat to the Giants with their season on the line last weekend meaning they’re now a game and about 13% outside of the top eight. They can still technically make it, but they’d need to win by about 20 goals, while the Giants would have to lose to the Blues by a similar margin and the Dogs go down to the Cats. Not going to happen. Motivation aside, however, the fact of the matter is the Bombers have been struggling mightily for a number of weeks, and though the Magpies have been far from their best they should still be much too good in front of a big Friday night crowd at the MCG.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Magpies 25+$1.68
Magpies/Magpies half-time/full-time double$1.40
Magpies to win$1.18

Predicted Squads

Essendon Essendon Bombers: B: N.Hind, B.Zerk-Thatcher, D.Heppell  HB: M.Redman, J.Laverde, A.McGrath C: E.Tsatas, A.Perkins, N.Martin HF: S.Durham, K.Langford, N.Cox F: A.Phillips, P.Wright, B.Hobbs FOLL: S.Draper, D.Parish, Z.Merrett – C I/C: J.Stringer, J.Kelly, M.Guelfi, J.Menzie

Collingwood MagpiesCollingwood Magpies: B: J.Howe, B.Frampton, I.Quaynor HB: B.Maynard - C, N.Murphy, J.Noble C: O.Markov, T.Adams, J.Daicos HF: S.Pendlebury, B.Mihocek, W.Hoskin-Elliott F: J.Elliott, D.McStay, J.Ginnivan FOLL: D.Cameron, J.Crisp, T.Mitchell I/C: P.Lipinski, S.Sidebottom, J.Ryan, B.McCreery

Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers

The Hawks are going to finish in 16th spot this year, but they have proven that there is a whole lot of reason to be optimistic about their prospects going forward and potentially as soon as next year. They were again relatively competitive last weekend against the Demons but were unable to make it three wins on the trot having beaten the Magpies and Bulldogs the two weeks prior, but that will be of little concern to them at this point in time. The Dockers, meanwhile, are set to finish a couple of spots ahead, but for a team which won 15 games last year it’s been a really disappointing season. They’ve demonstrated some of the form which made them so successful last year over the past few weeks, but all that has served to do is highlight how disappointing they’d been previously. There is still plenty to like about this team though, and they’ll be hoping this year proves to be nothing more than a blip on the radar. As for this game, with both teams not playing finals it’s always difficult to tip how the game will unfold. But as good as Hawthorn has been, the Dockers appear to be the value selection here, particularly with the potential for rogue results in the final round of the season.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dockers to win$2.40
Dockers 1-39$2.90
Dockers +10.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks:Hawthorn Hawks: B: B.Hardwick, J.Blanck, J.Impey  HB: J.Sicily - C, J.Scrimshaw, H.Morrison C: K.Amon, J.Newcombe, J.Weddle HF: W.Day, L.Breust, J.Ward F: D.Moore, J.Koschitzke, F.Maginness FOLL: N.Reeves, C.Nash, J.Worpel I/C: N.Long, C.Macdonald, D.Grainger-Barras, M.Ramsden

Fremantle DockersFremantle Dockers: B: B.Cox, A.Pearce - C, C.Wagner HB: J.Clark, L.Ryan, H.Young C: L.Henry, M.Johnson, J.Aish HF: S.Switkowski, J.Treacy, L.Schultz F: M.Frederick, J.Amiss, S.Sturt FOLL: L.Jackson, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw I/C: B.Banfield, J.O’Meara, T.Emmett, K.Worner

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns

Kangaroos fans have likely never barracked as hard for the Eagles as they were last weekend, but with West Coast’s shock victory over the Western Bulldogs, the number one pick and Harley Reid is now North Melbourne’s – assuming, of course, that they don’t go and blow it by beating the Suns this weekend. In isolation a Kangaroos win is not out of the realms of possibility – they’ve been really competitive without being able to win for much of the second half of the season, and with the Suns’ season also well and truly over this could be a winnable match for the Roos. But as much as no club will ever admit to tanking, this is not a game which North Melbourne fans probably particularly want them to win. For the Suns, meanwhile, a win or loss won’t change where they finish a great deal – they could potentially move up a spot to 14th, but that’s as far as they can go. It’s been yet another almost but not quite season for the Suns, but with the announcement of three-time Premiership coach Damian Hardwick as their leader for the next six years during the week, there’s reason to be optimistic. Riding the wave of that optimism and with an opponent with very minimal incentive to win, the Suns should be able to finish off their season with a win.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Suns 1-39$2.20
North Melbourne/Gold Coast half-time/full-time double$6.75
Suns to win$1.32

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne North Melbourne Kangaroos: B: A.Corr, B.McKay, L.McDonald HB: J.Ziebell, T.Thomas, D.Tucker C: D.Howe, L.Davies-Uniacke, B.Scott HF: K.Turner, H.Sheezel, C.Taylor F: E.Ford, N.Larkey, P.Curtis FOLL: T.Xerri, W.Phillips, J.Simpkin - C I/C: H.Greenwood, T.Goldstein, J.Goater, T.Powell

Gold Coast SunsGold Coast Suns: B: C.Ballard, S.Collins, M.Andrew HB: N.Anderson, R.Atkins, B.Ellis C: L.Johnston, S.Flanders, B.Fiorini HF: M.Rosas, J.Lukosius, B.Ainsworth F: C.Budarick, M.Chol, L.Casboult FOLL: J.Witts - C, M.Rowell, T.Miller I/C: A.Sexton, B.Humphrey, S.Lemmens, D.Swallow

  • The Lions haven’t lost a game at home all season, while the Saints haven’t lost a game by more than 40 points since May.
  • The Swans haven’t lost any of their last four games at the SCG.
  • When the Dockers and the Hawks played earlier this year, Fremantle won by 69 points.

Multi of the Week

Lions 1-39$2.20
Swans to win$1.80
Dockers to win$2.40
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Brisbane Lions vs St. Kilda Saints

The Lions have been in the upper echelons of the ladder for many years without ever making it to the last day in September, but this might be their best chance to achieve that goal yet. Their win over an undermanned Collingwood at Marvel Stadium last Friday night means that a spot in the top two is theirs for the taking – all it will require is a win over the Saints. If they manage that, they’ll earn a home Qualifying Final, which of course means a home Preliminary Final if they win. That, in turn, means they can win their way through to the Grand Final without having to leave the Gabba, where they’re so far undefeated this year. The Saints, however, certainly won’t be a walkover. After appearing destined to tumble meekly out of the top eight they’ve won five of their last six, and their last fortnight – during which they’ve beaten the Tigers and then the Cats comfortably – has been as good as they’ve played for months. With a win of their own they can clinch a home Elimination Final berth, but as mentioned, the Lions haven’t lost at home all year. If the Saints continue to play as they have over the past couple of weeks they can make this a good game, but it’s tough to see them getting over the line against the Lions.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Lions 1-39$2.20
Lions/Lions half-time/full-time double$1.45
Lions to win$1.22

Predicted Squads

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions: B: B.Starcevich, H.Andrews - C, J.Payne  HB: C.McKenna, R.Lester, D.Wilmot C: H.McCluggage, J.Dunkley, D.Zorko HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, L.McCarthy F: C.Rayner, J.Daniher, Z.Bailey FOLL: O.McInerney, L.Neale, J.Berry I/C: D.Robertson, C.Ah Chee, K.Coleman, J.Fletcher

St. Kilda St. Kilda Saints: B: J.Battle, C.Wilkie, J.Webster HB: Z.Cordy, J.Sinclair, N.Wanganeen-Milera C: M.Windhager, S.Ross, M.Wood HF: J.Gresham, B.Hill, M.Owens F: M.King, T.Membrey, J.Higgins FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, B.Crouch I/C: L.Stocker, D.Butler, M.Phillipou, C.Sharman

Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs

It wasn’t a particularly good weekend for either of these two sides in Round 23, but while the Dogs’ finals hopes remain alive despite their disastrous loss, the Cats’ season is now officially over. It’s a disappointing end for the reigning Premiers, who despite spending a large portion of the season outside of the top eight always appeared destined to work their way back in it when they needed to and potentially mount a challenge. But though their best this year has still been very good, their performance against the Saints showed that they’re not quite as capable of pulling out that best whenever they need it as we might have thought. As for the Dogs, what is there to say? Sitting inside the top eight with games against the Hawks and Eagles to come they looked all but assured of a spot in September. Their loss to the Hawks was disappointing enough, but to subsequently go down against the Eagles was substantially worse. With their season on the line, they failed to win against perhaps the worst team in AFL history on their own home turf in a performance which has put a huge amount of pressure on the club overall, and more particularly Luke Beveridge. While they don’t deserve it, however, their season is still alive, but they will need to beat the Cats and for the Giants to lose to the Blues. Both of those things are very feasible, and as tough as it is to tip them after their last fortnight, with a whole lot more to play for than the Cats they look like good value.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Dogs to win$1.90
Dogs 1-39$2.50
Dogs +2.5$1.83

Predicted Squads

Geelong CatsGeelong Cats: B: T.Stewart, S.De Koning, J.Kolodjashnij HB: Z.Guthrie, E.Ratugolea, M.Duncan C: M.Holmes, T.Bruhn, I.Smith HF: B.Close, J.Cameron, M.O’Connor F: T.Stengle, T.Hawkins, G.Miers FOLL: S.Neale, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Atkins I/C: J.Bews, Z.Tuohy, J.Bowes, O.Henry

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs: B: A.Keath, L.Jones, T.Duryea HB: B.Dale, J.O’Donnell, E.Richards C: J.Macrae, B.Smith, B.Williams HF: C.Weightman, A.Naughton, C.Daniel F: R.Lobb, J.Ugle-Hagan, R.West FOLL: T.English, A.Treloar, M.Bontempelli - C I/C: C.Poulter, L.Vandermeer, A.Scott, O.Baker

West Coast Eagles vs Adelaide Crows

As extraordinary as it is, the Eagles have now won two of their last four games, and lost another in that time frame by less than a kick. After all the backlash coach Adam Simpson copped after failing to put an extra number behind the ball when his side led by less than a goal with a minute remaining against the Bombers, the very next week the team found themselves in the same position against the Bulldogs. This time they did put a number back, and this time they held on. It may well cost them Harley Reid, but this win must have provided a huge amount of relief for a club on its knees. Adam Simpson may well still end up losing his job, which feels unfair given how much he has had to endure over the past couple of years, but at long last they are showing at least a semblance of competitivity. With pick one now likely gone, they will be keen to finish the season on a high in front of their home crowd. But while a win is more imaginable than it was a month ago, it’s still hard to see them getting the job done against the Crows. In their favour is the fact that Adelaide will likely still be seething about the extraordinary end to last week’s game against Sydney, in which an incorrectly adjudicated behind essentially cost them a finals spot. Whether that translates to added rage on the field, or a level of apathy, remains to be seen, but regardless the Crows are a legitimately good team. They haven’t travelled particularly well this season, but they should be able to take care of the Eagles in Perth without too many problems.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Crows 1-39$2.30
Crows to win$1.20
Crows/Crows half-time/full-time double$1.40

Predicted Squads

West Coast EaglesWest Coast Eagles: B: T.Cole, J.McGovern - C, A.Witherden HB: E.Yeo, J.Rotham, L.Duggan C: A.Gaff, T.Kelly, J.Hunt HF: C.Chesser, J.Darling, N.Long F: J.Cripps, O.Allen, R.Maric FOLL: B.Williams, L.Edwards, E.Hewett I/C: S.Petrevski-Seton, J.Petruccelle, J.Jones, J.Williams

Adelaide CrowsAdelaide Crows: B: B.Smith, J.Borlase, M.Keane HB: M.Michalanney, J.Worrell, W.Milera C: J.Soligo, J.Dawson - C, M.Hinge HF: B.Keays, D.Fogarty, S.McAdam F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, M.Crouch I/C: R.Thilthorpe, H.Schoenberg, R.Sloane, J.Rachele

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Port Adelaide vs Richmond Tigers

The Power have managed to wrestle back a bit of momentum over the past fortnight after losing four games on the trot, and though they weren’t at their most convincing against the Dockers last weekend, their 16-point victory was a solid one given their struggles in recent times. That’s given them a chance at making it back into the top two and earning a home Qualifying Final, but they’ll know by the time the ball is bounced to start this game whether they have a chance, because if Brisbane beat the Saints the day prior they won’t. Even if that happens, however, they’ll still be keen to win or Melbourne may well jump them, forcing the Power to fourth spot and a clash in Melbourne against the Magpies in the first week of the finals. The Tigers, meanwhile, have little to play for. It’s been a tumultuous season in many ways, and it wouldn’t surprise to see something of a drop-off after an emotional farewell to three-time Premiership legends Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin last weekend. Expect Andrew McQualter, in what may be his last game as coach of the club, to swing a few changes and play a few kids in what is a dead rubber in every sense of the word for the Tigers. Port Adelaide would likely win this comfortably regardless, but with a lot more to play for, too, they should be far too good.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Power to win$1.11
Power 40+$2.00
Power -37.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide PowerPort Adelaide Power: B: D.Williams, A.Aliir, D.Houston HB: K.Farrell, T.Jonas - C, R.Burton C: Z.Butters, W.Drew, X.Duursma HF: W.Rioli, T.Marshall, J.McEntee F: D.Byrne-Jones, J.Finlayson, S.Powell-Pepper FOLL: S.Hayes, O.Wines, C.Rozee I/C: O.Lord, M.Bergman, J.Horne-Francis, L.Jones

Richmond TigersRichmond Tigers: B: D.Grimes, N.Balta, T.Young HB: N.Vlastuin, D.Rioli, J.Short C: K.McIntosh, T.Taranto, J.Ross HF: S.Bolton, L.Baker, D.Prestia F: J.Riewoldt, D.Martin, M.Pickett FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Cotchin, J.Hopper I/C: N.Broad, I.Soldo, T.Dow, J.Graham

Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons

There are a few less season-deciding games this week as a result of the goal review (or lack thereof) controversy last week, but this is one which will shape the ladder. The Swans, as the beneficiary of the controversy, will now play finals regardless of the outcome of this game. With a win, however, they could theoretically jump as high as fifth, while a loss could see them drop to eighth – a significant difference given that one would see them play their Elimination Final in Sydney and the other in Melbourne. For the Demons, fourth place appears to be their likely finishing point and they can’t fall outside of the top four, but depending on the results of the Lions and Power they could potentially jump as high as second. That would be a huge result for them, but it’s very unlikely. If just one of the Lions and Power wins, Melbourne will finish third with a win, but whether that helps them remains to be seen given it would mean they’ll have to travel interstate in the first week of the finals rather than playing Collingwood in Melbourne. Barring surprise losses to both Port Adelaide and Brisbane, this game will mean a lot more to Sydney than the visitors, and the home team can continue their winning ways with yet another victory and a likely top six finish as a result.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Swans to win$1.80
Swans 1-39$2.40
Swans -2.5$1.87

Predicted Squads

Sydney SwansSydney Swans: B: T.McCartin, D.Rampe - C, R.Fox HB: N.Blakey, H.Cunningham, J.Lloyd C: B.Campbell, J.Rowbottom, E.Gulden HF: S.Wicks, H.McLean, T.Papley F: W.Hayward, L.McDonald, I.Heeney FOLL: T.Hickey, C.Mills, L.Parker I/C: O.Florent, J.Buller, D.Stephens, Ch.Warner

Melbourne DemonsMelbourne Demons: B: J.Bowey, S.May, T.Rivers HB: J.McVee, J.Smith, J.Lever C: C.Salem, J.Viney, E.Langdon HF: T.Sparrow, J.Melksham, A.Neal-Bullen F: K.Pickett, J.van Rooyen, L.Hunter FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, C.Petracca I/C: B.Laurie, A.Brayshaw, A.Tomlinson, K.Chandler

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants

The final game of the home and away season may very well be a preview of the first Elimination Final, too. The Blues came back from a seven-goal deficit against the Suns last week to record a ninth straight victory in what has been one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds in recent memory, and as a result a home Elimination Final is more than likely theirs regardless of this result. They can ensure it with a win, however, a result which would mean GWS’ spot in the finals will hinge on whether the Bulldogs have beaten the Cats the day prior. If they have, the Giants will be in the finals if they win and out if they lose; in contrast, if the Doggies go down then the Giants will make it regardless. Whatever the result of the Dogs game, a win in this game means that GWS will play finals, and if the Saints and Swans have also lost then the Giants could theoretically finish as high as sixth and earn a home Elimination Final as a result after receiving a huge percentage boost in last week’s record-breaking win against the Bombers. As you can probably tell, there are a fair few different outcomes depending on the results of other games. What is for certain, however, is that the Blues need to win to ensure a top six finish, and the Giants need to win to ensure a finals berth. The Giants should be able to be competitive as they are nearly every week, but the Blues might just be a little too strong on their home soil.

BookmakerJames’ TipOdds
Blues 1-39$2.20
Blues/Blues half-time/full-time double$1.80
Blues to win$1.50

Predicted Squads

Carlton BluesCarlton Blues: B: B.Kemp, J.Weitering, N.Newman HB: A.Cincotta, C.Marchbank, A.Saad C: O.Hollands, P.Cripps - C, S.Docherty HF: J.Martin, T.De Koning, D.Cuningham F: J.Motlop, C.Curnow, M.Owies FOLL: M.Pittonet, G.Hewett, B.Acres I/C: Z.Fisher, P.Dow, M.Cottrell, H.McKay

GWS GiantsGWS Giants: B: J.Buckley, S.Taylor, C.Idun HB: L.Ash, H.Himmelberg, L.Whitfield C: J.Kelly, T.Green, J.Fahey HF: T.Bedford, J.Riccardi, B.Daniels F: D.Lloyd, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C FOLL: K.Briggs, C.Ward, S.Coniglio I/C: I.Cumming, H.Perryman, L.Keeffe, C.Brown

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