NRL 2023 Round 27 – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

So here we are. The final round of the NRL home and away season is upon us, and what a round it shapes up as. As there always is in the final round of the season, there is a varying amount on the line for different teams – some are playing for their 2023 lives, others have little to nothing to play for. Interestingly, a result of that is that there are now four games with virtually even odds, many of them games which would perhaps be relatively lopsided were both teams at full strength. Those aside, there are also a couple of games which may well be finals previews, kicking off with the Broncos vs the Storm on Thursday night and ending with the Sharks vs the Raiders on Sunday, while sandwiched in the middle is the best of the lot – a virtual Elimination Final between the Rabbitohs and the Roosters. It all comes down to this round, and we’ve previewed all eight games set to determine the final make-up of the 2023 ladder below.

The final round of the NRL season kicks off with a game which may very well be repeated in the first week of finals, with the top of the table Broncos hosting the fourth placed Storm. Both of these teams know roughly what they’ll be doing in that first week of finals – each will have a double chance, with the Broncos hosting a Qualifying Final and the Storm travelling for theirs. But whether they play one another, or the Warriors and Panthers respectively, will likely be determined by this game. The Broncos jumped into first place courtesy of a strong 29-18 win over the Raiders – their seventh in a row – and a rare loss for the Panthers, while the Storm assured themselves of the double chance with an big win over the Titans. If the Broncos win this, they’ll finish top and the Storm will finish fourth and as a result the two will play one another. In contrast, a Storm win would see them move up to third if the Warriors lose, and will likely see the Broncos move to second – a result which would also see them play each other in a Qualifying Final. Though there are a lot of moving parts and neither team can lose or gain too much from this game alone, both will be keen to head into the finals series in winning form – though they’ll equally be keen to avoid showing all their tricks given they may well be playing each other in more important games in the weeks to come. Regardless of the stakes, however, it’s nearly impossible to tip against the Broncos at the moment, particularly on their home turf, and they can secure top spot with a hard-fought win on Thursday night.

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Deine Mariner 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Jock Madden
8. Tom Flegler  9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Keenan Palasia 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Brendan Piakura 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Corey Jensen

Melbourne Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Will Warbrick 3. Marion Seve 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Xavier Coates 6. Nick Meaney  7. Cameron Munster 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eli Katoa 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Tepai Moeroa 17. Alec MacDonald

Of all the big games this weekend, Friday night’s first isn’t exactly the most enthralling. Neither the Sea Eagles nor the Tigers have a whole lot to play for – Manly could jump up to 11th from 12th while the Tigers could theoretically haul themselves off the bottom of the ladder if they win and the Dragons lose by a combined total of 70 points, but that’s about it. The Sea Eagles will at least be eager to finish the season on what would be a second successive win after the debacle that was their end to last season, and despite having nothing to play for they should be able to do that. The Tigers weren’t particularly competitive last weekend, going down with ease to the Roosters after enjoying a rare win against the Dolphins the week before. It seems likely that a similar result will unfold this weekend. This game probably won’t reach any great heights and will act more as a curtain-raiser to the blockbuster which will take place immediately afterwards, and in an uninspiring the Sea Eagles should be able to end their season with a comfortable victory.

Predicted Squads

Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tolutau Koula 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Raymond Vaega 6. Jake Arthur 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Toafofoa Sipley 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Sean Keppie 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 15. Kelma Tuilagi 16. Aaron Woods 17. Ethan Bullemor

Wests Tigers: 1. Jahream Bula 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Triston Reilly 4. Asu Kepaoa 5. Junior Tupou 6. Daine Laurie 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Api Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Justin Matamua 15. Shawn Blore 16. Aitasi James 17. Alex Seyfarth

It all comes down to this. Two of the most historic rivals in the league both find themselves squared away with 12 wins apiece heading into the final round, and the situation is simple. For the loser, the season is over. For the winner, finals likely await, unless that winner is the Roosters and both the Raiders and the Cowboys win as well. Both teams entered the season with Premiership aspirations; for the Roosters, those aspirations seemed all but shot months ago, but the Rabbitohs have clung onto theirs – at least in the eyes of the NRL media – for a whole lot longer, despite not having secured their spot in the finals. But four losses in the last six weeks – including a disappointing 29-10 defeat at the hands of the rampaging Knights last week – have seen them fail to lock away a spot in the eight, and forced them into this do or die clash. The Roosters, meanwhile, have virtually done the opposite, fighting their way back into finals contention after seemingly falling out of it long ago. Their thumping win over the Tigers last weekend was their fourth in a row, each of those victories non-negotiable in order for them to keep their finals hopes alive. They enter this game as the form team, but they’ll have to head to Accor Stadium to do it. Games between these two are generally intense enough as it is – add the context surrounding this one to the equation, and we can expect some seriously high-intensity NRL. Hopefully this one goes down to the wire, and with the Roosters playing the better footy of late they can snatch it and give themselves a good chance of playing finals as a result.

Predicted Squads

South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1. Blake Taaffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias
8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Hame Sele  11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray 14. Tallis Duncan 15. Siliva Havili 16. Jacob Host 17. Shaq Mitchell

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Corey Allan 5. Joseph Suaalii 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Fletcher Baker 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Siua Wong 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Sandon Smith  15. Egan Butcher 16. Terrell May 17. Angus Crichton

• The Roosters have won four games on the trot while the Bunnies have lost four of their last six.
• The Panthers loss to the Eels last weekend was just their fifth loss at home in the past four home and away seasons.
• The Knights are on an eight-game winning streak.

Multi of the Week

The Dolphins are ultimately going to finish in the bottom five, but there was plenty to like about what they did in their first season. Widely expected to be the worst team in the league, they surprised everyone with what they did early in the year, and though they’ve failed to maintain it for 27 weeks they’ve still been a hell of a lot more competitive than most expected. As far as outperforming expectations go, however, it’s their opponent this week who might just take the cake for the biggest surprise packet of the season. In their first year based back full time in New Zealand, the Warriors have proven themselves to be a legitimate Premiership threat and will surprisingly finish top four regardless of what happens in this game. They can’t make top two though, and so will be forced to travel to play either the Panthers or the Broncos in the first week of finals. If they win this game it will more than likely be Penrith where they’ll head, while with a loss there’s more chance it ends up being Brisbane. Neither of those is a particularly tantalising prospect for them, though if they had the choice they’d likely prefer to avoid Penrith. But don’t expect them to flirt too much with their form heading into the finals. Win or loss, this game doesn’t matter a whole lot to the Warriors, but having won seven games on the trot they’ll be keen to keep their winning form going heading into the finals. Don’t expect an all out assault on the struggling Dolphins, but the Warriors should do enough to get the win.

Predicted Squads

The Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Tesi Niu 
4. Euan Aitken 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Sean O’Sullivan  8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Harrison Graham 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Kenny Bromwich 14. Isaiya Katoa 15. Ray Stone 16. Herman Ese'ese 17. JJ Collins

New Zealand Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Brayden Wiliame 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Te Maire Martin 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa  11. Mitch Barnett 12. Marata Niukore 13. Josh Curran 14. Dylan Walker 15. Jackson Ford 16. Bayley Sironen 17. Jazz Tevaga

For the first time in months the Panthers have lost their hold on top spot, after they suffered a rare defeat at the hands of the Eels last weekend. That ended an eight-game winning streak for them, not that they’ll be too considered – they’re still guaranteed a home Qualifying Final, and of greater concern to them will be the health of Jarome Luai after their star five-eighth dislocated his shoulder against Parramatta. Fortunately the news wasn’t as bad they expected, and a return in the latter stage of the finals is now back on the cards. For the time being, however, they’ll have to without him as they attempt to stave off a Cowboys team fighting for a spot in the finals. A 34-10 defeat of the Dolphins last weekend kept the Cowboys in the finals hunt, and with one of the Rabbitohs and the Roosters – who sit eighth and tenth respectively – certain to lose, a victory here would guarantee a finals spot for North Queensland. Unfortunately for them, Penrith doesn’t lose often, and even less often in Penrith. Last week showed they are at least fallible, but this is a proud team which won’t be particularly keen to head into the finals on the back of two straight losses. The Cowboys will no doubt bring the fight given what’s on the line for them, but even without Luai the Panthers are just so good, and should be able to snuff out their opponent’s finals hopes with a win.

Predicted Squads

Penrith Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Tyrone Peachey
4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jack Cogger 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Jack Cogger 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Soni Luke 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Zac Hosking

North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Heilum Luki 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Jake Granville
15. Coen Hess 16. Griffin Neame 17. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

This season can’t end quickly enough for the Dragons, who enter this game having won just one of their last eight games, and that win having come against the Tigers. They’ll finish 16th barring a huge loss for them and a huge win for the Tigers, which it’s hard to see happening, and though they’ve been consistently competitive, they have very rarely been good enough to actually get themselves a win. Against one of the most in-form sides in the competition, it’s hard to see that changing this weekend. The Knights have absolutely come from the clouds to lock up a finals berth, and have now guaranteed themselves a home Elimination Final – something which was not even close to being on the radar a few weeks ago. With little on the line they might not put their best foot forward in this game, but what is currently an eight-game winning streak should continue regardless. Even if they’re not at 100%, the Knights should be too strong in this one.

Predicted Squads

St. George Illawarra Dragons: 1.Tyrell Sloan  2. Mat Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Billy Burns 12. Dan Russell 13. Jack de Belin 14. Connor Muhleisen 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Ben Murdoch-Masila  17. Michael Molo

Newcastle Knights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Adam Clune 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Dylan Lucas 13. Adam Elliott 14. Fa'amanu Brown 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington  17. Mat Croker

The exact make-up of the top eight is set to come down to the final game of the season, and the eyes of the NRL world will be waiting impatiently for the first game on Sunday to end so it can get started. Neither the Titans nor the Bulldogs are playing finals footy this year, with the Bulldogs locked into 15th and the Titans set to finish either 13th or 14th. The Titans were certainly the better team for much of this year and for a long time looked to have improved substantially on last year, but a couple of tight losses which put their finals hopes in jeopardy appear to have knocked the wind out of this group, which has now lost eight of its last nine games. The last three have been non-competitive, but against the Bulldogs this weekend that should change. Canterbury have lost three in a row and five of their last six as well, and though they’re entertaining to watch at times they will be, to put it lightly, mildly concerned with the incredible ease with which their opponents score points against them. The 42 they gave up to the Sea Eagles last weekend was the sixth out of their last nine games in which their opponent has surpassed 40, with two of the others seeing their opponent go past 30. They’ve given up nearly 100 points more than anyone else in the league, so the Titans have the opportunity to finish the season on a satisfying note with a big score. With nothing on the line this isn’t an easy one to tip, but the Titans are the better team and should get the chocolates.

Predicted Squads

Gold Coast Titans: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Jojo Fifita 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tom Weaver 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Chris Randall 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. David Fifita 12. Klese Haas 13. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 14. Kruise Leeming 15. Isaac Li 16. Joe Stimson 17. Jacob Alick

Canterbury Bulldogs: 1. Jake Averillo 2. Blake Wilson 3. Hayze Perham 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Luke Thompson 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Liam Knight 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Corey Waddell 13. Harrison Edwards 14. Kyle Flanagan 15. Max King 16. Tevita Pangai Junior 17. Jayden Okunbor

There is a lot riding on the final game of the season. The Sharks and Raiders will enter Round 24 in sixth and seventh respectively, both of whom have a 13-10 record, and for the winner a home Elimination Final awaits. If the Sharks lose, they’ll almost certainly still be safe – assuming that the Rabbitohs don’t win and the Cowboys don’t smack the Panthers around – but will have to travel for the first week of the finals. The Raiders, however, are much more precariously placed by virtue of their woeful points difference. A loss for them will see them fall behind whichever of the Rabbitohs and Roosters wins, while if the Cowboys manage to knock off the Panthers by any margin, they’ll jump into eighth and the Raiders will fall out of the finals race at the last hurdle. When they met earlier this year the Raiders won 24-20, but that was in Canberra and was back when the Raiders were winning close games for fun. Over the past few weeks, they’ve not been anywhere near as trustworthy. The Sharks haven’t either, in fairness – though they had won three consecutive games prior to last week, their 29-10 defeat at the hands of the Knights will hardly inspire a great deal of confidence in their fans. But a gap of 223 between these two teams’ respective points differences is more indicative of where they’re at than their matching records – the Sharks are the better team, and on their home turf should be able to lock in a home game in the first week of finals.

Predicted Squads

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Braydon Trindall 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Cam McInnes 14. Jack Williams 15. Royce Hunt 16. Tom Hazelton 17. Jesse Colquhoun

Canberra Raiders: 1. Seb Kris 2. Jordan Rapana 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Nick Cotric 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joe Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Ata Mariota 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Trey Mooney

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